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- Sasol: Technical Position & Outlook
Thursday 24 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Ticker: SOL Despite the recent low price and short term oversold conditions, the weekly chart painted the picture of a share that had further room to fall. This view was shared with clients a month ago on Monday 23 September in the note: "Avoid: Large Cap Weekly Breakdown'. As of yesterday's close, the model reading highlights the following: SHORT TERM (1 to 10 days): "The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position' while the MEDIUM TERM (2 to 4 week) reading states that " traders would be best suited to wait for the price to stabilize" i.e. stop declining or cease it's aggressive selling pressure. I don't have the data or tools to tell whether institutional investors will retain the selling pressure however we can use the model reading to help assess reward-to-risk. Again considering the weekly chart, the share continues to trend lower, having breached the lower boundary of the bear flag structure. The price is below the 8, 21 and 50-week moving averages, all of which are declining. It is also below the 200-week SMA, which is also declining. There is no clear support for the share, except the two swing lows at R70, which was tested in May and October 2020. Until there is a clear improvement in candle structure and price action , trying to catch a falling knife is likely to yield more pain than pleasure. SASOL WEEKLY CHART (as of yesterday's close) SASOL DAILY CHART (as of yesterday's close) Previous Post: PREMIUM POST [Monday 23 September note: "Avoid: Large Cap Weekly Breakdown'] Pre-Market Poor, absolute and relative price trend Poor, absolute and relative candle structure Trading below it's declining 200-day EMA Each rally is being sold Avoid until price action improves! Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Mondi Plc: Here's What You Should Know
Thursday 24 October 2024, Time Published: Pre-Market Mondi Plc - Applicable to Short Term Traders. Measuring current and historically distance could be useful in assessing reward-to-risk. Over the past 12 years, the largest distance vs 21-week EMA readings have been in the range of between 11% and 15%. At current levels, the share is trading 11.86% below it's 21-week EMA. As highlighted at the start of the week, I am expecting lower levels toward the incline support which extends back to the March 2020 lows. This would coincide with the price being well it's 21w EMA - potentially giving traders an buy/long reward-to-risk. MNP Note as published on Monday, 21 October. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Northam Platinum: Price Action Aligning To Model Reading
Thursday 24 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Northam Platinum - in line with yesterday's pre-market model reading which read : "do not chase, look for failure to hold the range highs...' / came into Wednesday's session approaching overbought, then saw a character change as reflected in candle structure (selling from the open) to close at the lows of the day. Next best probability re-accumulation range? The 21/50-EMA intersection. In recent months, Unum Capital clients have been presented with several opportunities in NPH, on both the buy and sell side. Previous Post Wednesday 23 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- JSE Sector Ratings
Thursday, 23 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- TRADER'S TOOLBOX: JSE Technical Summary
Thursday, 24 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Buyer/Seller Dominance
Thursday 24 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market DOMINANT BUYING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (DAILY) DOMINANT SELLING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (DAILY) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Across-The-Board Weakness Confirms Market Breadth Readings
*[High Importance] Wednesday, 23 October 2024 Time Published: 20h37 (South African Time) / U.S Trading Session Tonight's across-the-board weakness confirms the breadth data I've highlighted over the past two days. Knowing what's happening under the surface is of critical importance in assessing reward-to-risk. *[High Importance] Wednesday, 23 October 2024 Time Published: 12h54 As of last night's close in the U.S: New highs contracting New lows expanding Refer to the previous note to where I reference underlying weakness Previous Post: Weakness Underneath The Surface? An Eye-Catching Data Point Tuesday 22 October, 10h39 There's been a significant ultra short term shift in breadth which has caught my attention. Yesterday, the number of S&P 500 shares above their 5-day moving average dropped to 33%, a sharp drop from Friday's close which was above 60%. This could be a precursor to short term weakness underneath the surface. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- ETF Alert: SPDR North American Natural Resources ETF
Wednesday 23 October 2024 Time Published: 14h47 (S/African Time) / Pre-Market U.S Trading Session Portfolio Buy Idea: Trading at the upper boundary of a multi-month consolidation Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- S&P 500 Equally Weighted vs Market Cap Weighted
*[High Importance] Wednesday 23 October, 14h35 RSP/SPY | S&P 500 Equally-Weighted relative to S&P 500 Cap Weighted. For now, reflected at the previous breakdown level. Why is this relevant? The chart highlights the weakness in the broader market, with a bias back toward the largest capitalization stocks. Should the ration reverse higher, it would highlight the broadening toward other sectors/stocks and away from the large cap equities which have been in favour over several years. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Market Breadth: Net New Highs/Lows
*[High Importance] Wednesday, 23 October 2024 Time Published: 12h54 As of last night's close in the U.S: New highs contracting New lows expanding Refer to the previous note to where I reference underlying weakness Previous Post: Weakness Underneath The Surface? An Eye-Catching Data Point Tuesday 22 October, 10h39 There's been a significant ultra short term shift in breadth which has caught my attention. Yesterday, the number of S&P 500 shares above their 5-day moving average dropped to 33%, a sharp drop from Friday's close which was above 60%. This could be a precursor to short term weakness underneath the surface. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Update On Global Ideas: Carvana, NuScale & McDonalds
Wednesday 23 October 2024 Time Published: 10h27 S/African Time / Pre-Market U.S. Trading Session My global screeners are continuously running, in search of the next cash-flow generating opportunities. This is an update on some of my recent global ideas. Carvana Co. A massive mover and a lovely momentum opportunity that has seen strong gains. The share advanced from 152.90 to yesterday's high of 198.09. Original idea published here: https://www.unum.capital/post/trade-alert-carvana-tuesday-17-september-2024 MCD McDonald's Corp - strong initial move rallied from $296 to $317. Last night after the U.S market close, the company reported an E. Coli breakout , which sees it's share slower in pre-market. This basically brings the price back toward the entry level. Original idea published here: https://www.unum.capital/post/this-setup-im-lovin-it-monday-23-september-2024 NuScale Corp (SMR) is in the hottest sector in recent months - NUCLEAR . With it being a small cap momentum idea, I was expecting an outsized move . It did not disappoint as it rallied by 64% in under 3 weeks . Well done clients who may have took advantage of the opportunity to trade. SILVER - this morning I also published an update on opportunities in the commodities space: https://www.unum.capital/post/silver-surge-a-boost-for-our-trade-ideas To trade global instruments, you will need an offshore account. To get started, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Retailers: Selling Off In Line With The Model Readings
Wednesday, 23 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market This is the 2nd update on the original post. For the previous posts, please scroll down. In the original post, I highlighted the real-time reading from the Tactical Trading Guide. It alerted clients about a poor reward-to-risk on the buy/long side . Since then, performance has been as follows: TFG down from R158 to R146 (recent low) TRU down from R109 to R98 (recent low) MRP rallied to 272 then traded down to 253 (recent low) CLS was at R399, then sold off sharply down to R360. SHP (see insert below) was a setup which clients were well prepared for . The idea was to look for a print ABOVE R314, followed by a pullback. The price traded above R314 and retreated to reach a low of R278 during yesterday's trading session. Well done to clients who have been correctly positioned to take advantage of these moves. Previous Post: Retailers: Unwinding From Overbought Thursday, 03 October 2024 Time Published: 12h29 The Tactical Trading Guide has been very useful in assessing reward-to-risk. The model has given traders timeous readings helping to prepare for opportunity. To add, CLS Clicks is acting in line with the model, which alerted traders that sellers were becoming active. Note the reading at the end of day on 25 September. Previous Post: " Retailers Have Rallied. Here's What The Data Says - Monday, 23 September 2024" Pre-Market A global rate cutting cycle including action from the SARB has support strong moves in retail shares. In addition, early positive signs in the local economy has boosted confidence which has led to analyst upgrades. This is especially relevant in the Consumer Discretionary sector which may feel the effect of improved consumer spend. While the fundamentals are positive and, after a strong rally, the short term reward-to-risk does not appear appealing for new buy/long trades. For Consumer Discretionary shares, this is what the data says: MRP Mr. Price TFG Foschini TRU Truworths Clients of Unum Capital have had access to research which has flagged opportunities across in selected names. TRU, discussed at R56, has nearly doubled in price over 14 months. Truworths - as discussed in the report (Active Trading Plan, Monday 03 July 2023) Then at R56 - now nearly R110. Not a client yet? Get in touch today. ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital












