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  • Silver Surge: A Boost For Our Trade Ideas

    Wednesday 23 October 2024 Time Published: Asian Trading Session Most recently (Friday, 13 September), I published two trade ideas on miners which had some exposure to Silver. The performance thus far has been as follows: (1) Wheaton Precious Metals +10% (2) Newmont Corp +9.5% (3) The ETF, Global X Silver Miners has done better, with a 19.5% as of Tuesday evening. As discussed via e-mail with the team on Monday, 16 September: Wheaton Precious Metals Idea (13/09) https://www.unum.capital/post/trade-alert-wheaton-precious-metals-friday-13-september-2024 Newmont Corp Idea (13/09) https://www.unum.capital/post/trade-alert-newmont-corp-friday-13-september-2024 Well done to clients who took advantage of the opportunity to trade. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Aspen Pharmacare: Unhealthy Price Action, But Flashing For Opportunity

    Wednesday 23 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Ticker: APN I am fully aware of the heavy selling pressure and poor price action, however, I am starting to notice readings coming through which states that the reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position. While the readings are there, it may just be sensible to wait until the price stops going down and starts to form a base...or gives us a 'flush low' and a V-shaped reversal setup. Notice the 5 to 8 week reading also stating that selling is aggressive and that we should wait for the price to stabilize? I drew these lines a few weeks ago, thinking R160 or thereabout would be a level of interest. Previous Post: Aspen Pharmacare: The Long and Short of It - Thursday, 05 September 2024 Pre-Market Ticker: APN Within the span of 19 months, the share has provided clients of Unum Capital with two opportunities to profit. These opportunities came on both the long (buy) and short (sell) side, benefiting from a rising and falling share price. The short leg provided short term traders with 3x opportunities to sell above 23500c. Although the share briefly test the stop-loss level (a spike), the share pullback was in line with the view. The updated chart, with the time-stamped ideas, is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Tactical Trading Guide: Northam Platinum, Harmony Gold & Foschini

    Wednesday 23 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Buyer/Seller Dominance

    Wednesday, 23 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Candlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance)  form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following:  (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength / weakness  of the candle formation i.e. t he greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and   the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation . Strongest (Open to Close) Weakest (Open to Close) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • TRADER'S TOOLBOX: JSE Technical Summary

    Wednesday, 23 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Channel Check: Breakdown Risk

    🔒 Premium Content Tuesday 22 October, 14h04 Weakness at the internal channel support! Breakdown risk! Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Sharp Reversal On U.S Dollar/Yen: Now Trading +150

    Tuesday 22 October 2024 Time Published: 14h32 Significant upside follow-through from the strategy alert at 140. Now trading +150. Thursday, 03 October 2024 Time Published: 23h29 Strong rebound off 140, now trading 146. A double opportunity (short, then long) for Unum Capital clients Previous Post: 16 September 2024 Real-Time: 21h50 S/African Time / US Trading Session Currency Pair: US Dollar / Japanese Yen Previous Post (Wednesday, 11 September) Real-Time: 08h22 Ticker: USD/JPY A significant win for clients who took the opportunity to trade The unwind/pullback, driven in large part by the Bank of Japan, has been a significant factor in the underperformance of growth/technology stocks. The reading from the Tactical Trading Guide has been in line, with the pair pulling back from 160 to today's low of 140. In FX terms, this is a MASSIVE MOVE. Previous Post (26 June) Readings For The US Dollar / Japanese Yen FX Pair Signal An Overextension And Potential Pullback Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Defiance Quantum ETF

    Tuesday 22 October, 14h25 Ticker: QTUM Constructive technical setup looking to break above multi-month highs. Medium term portfolio buy idea. Source: https://www.defianceetfs.com/qtum/ Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • STANDARD BANK: Downside Follow-Though

    Tuesday, 22 October 2024 at 12h12 The share reached the re-entry sell range and has seen strong downside follow-through. Previous Post Warning On Reward-To-Risk (15 August) Ticker: SBK Real-Time: 15h50 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Weakness Underneath The Surface? An Eye-Catching Data Point

    Tuesday 22 October, 10h39 There's been a significant ultra short term shift in breadth which has caught my attention. Yesterday, the number of S&P 500 shares above their 5-day moving average dropped to 33%, a sharp drop from Friday's close which was above 60%. This could be a precursor to short term weakness underneath the surface. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Active Trading Plan - Tuesday, 22 October 2024

    Yesterday (Monday's) note was jam-packed with useful insights and opportunities for clients to generate cash flow, with several views that will remain relevant. I published research on British American Tobacco, Mr. Price Group, Pick n Pay, Anglo American Platinum, Pepkor, Moni Plc, SA 10-Bond Yield (and more) . In case you may have missed it, you can read it here: https://www.unum.capital/post/active-trading-plan-monday-21-october-2024 This page is updated as the price action and news flow develops and, as opportunities are identified in real-time. Research is published DAILY and can be accessed at the following link: www.unum.capital/blog Unum Research Attains 3rd Place In The 2024 Securities Broker Awards. Read More Here:   https://www.unum.capital/post/unum-research-awards COVERAGE: Notes Added Thus Far Today/Overnight Impala Platinum - Into Ultra Short Term Sell Range Anglogold Ashanti - Reduce! Shoprite (SHP) - Covering Shorts or Re-Entering At the 50w EMA Kumba Iron Ore (KIO) - Piercing Candle On Watch US Dollar Index S&P 500 Index DRD Gold (DRD) - Model Reading Satrix Resources (STXRES) Update:  Fortinet (FTNT) Named Top Pick At Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley Raises PT On Palo Alto Networks (PANW) & Maintains Overweight Rating [Global Ideas] Global X Blockchain ETF (BKCH) [Global Ideas] Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) [Global Ideas] Honeywell International (HON) Most Overbought/Oversold Strongest/Weakest Open To Close Impala Platinum - [Note Added on Tuesday 22 October at 09h10] Into Ultra Short Term Sell Range at yesterday's high, continuing to pull back back this morning. The medium term structure however remains appealing. Anglogold Ashanti - Reduce! - [Note Added on Tuesday 22 October at 08h51] Model reading as of yesterday's close: ANG - as highlighted to Unum Capital clients on Tuesday 08 October. Shoprite (SHP) - [Note Added on Tuesday 22 October at 08h10] Covering Shorts or Re-Entering At or Just Below The 50w EMA Kumba Iron Ore (KIO) - [Note Added on Tuesday 22 October at 07h54] Piercing Candle On Watch - The provisional pivot is yesterday's low of 34013c US Dollar Index Index [Data/Chart as at Tuesday 22 October at 07h32] S&P 500 Index [Data/Chart as at Tuesday 22 October at 07h25] DRD Gold [Analysis/Chart as at Monday 21 October at 13h42) This has been a great recent setup, having consolidated above it's 21-week EMA. Now extended to the upside (in the short term). Satrix Resources (STXRES): Multi-Month Highs. Key Technical Development / Continued Strength / Change of Long Term Trend? If you going back to the first quarter of this year, you may recall my chart on the Satrix Resources vs the Chinese Yuan. In short, this turned out to be the bottom for the group (STXRES), with the ETF rising since then, albeit not without a pullback along the way. Since early August, I have re-iterated my view on the technical structure for Resources, with several constituents having been presented as buy setups over the past two months. Having again reviewed the chart, I have noticed the price clearing it's downward trend which was in place since March 2022. This marks a potentially significant shift in trend that started toward the end of Q1. [ Analysis/Chart as at Monday 21 October 2024 at 13h01] STXRES vs Chinese Yuan - as highlighted to Unum Capital clients on 13 February 2024 . [GLOBAL IDEAS] Global X Blockchain ETF (BKCH)   [Added during the U.S Trading Session, Monday 21 October at 18h34] Strength within a consolidation structure, looking to emerge to the upside. [Global Ideas] Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) - false breakdown/scoop n score setup [Pre-Market U.S Trading Session, Monday 21 October] [Global Ideas] Honeywell International (HON) - emerging from a multi-month base [Pre-Market U.S Trading Session, Monday 21 October] Updated: Fortinet (FTNT) Named Top Pick At Morgan Stanley + Raises Price Target On Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Maintains Overweight Rating. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) - as highlighted to Unum Capital clients on 01 October: Strongest/Most Overbought/High Bullish Momentum as of the last close Weakest/Most Oversold/High Bearish Momentum as of the last close. Most Dominant Buyers (Open To Close) Most Dominant Sellers (Open To Close) Important: Please Note The Following: TECHNICAL SCREENERS: There have been some incredible opportunities to generate cash flow. One of our favorite technical screens is the price vs the 21-week EMA . For new buy/longs ideas, this strategy works well in a market that has been oversold. Here, the share is trades more than 10% below it's 21-week exponential moving average, which may offer a compelling reward-to-risk. Most recently (03 September) I published a screen with several names that matched the criteria. Over the subsequent 6 weeks, the performance has been as follows: GFI +27% [Also flagged via the Tactical Trading Guide] KIO +25% [Also published seperately as a trade idea] IMP +25% [Flagged via the Tactical Trading Guide] SSW +26% [A separate note looked for break to R14 before a rally to R20] NPH +33% [Also a Strategy Alert at R93. Friday's high = +R124] EXX +26% [Also published seperately as a trade idea] ARI +19% [Also flagged as a provisional buy/long as it approached the swing lows] MKR +11% The original screen, as was published, is shown below: The technical screen was originally published here on Tuesday, 03 September at 14h28 : https://www.unum.capital/post/technical-screen-below-21-w-ema-by-10-or-more-tuesday-03-september-2024 This market has, and continues to provide phenomenal opportunities to generate cash flow. Well done to Unum Capital clients that have taken advantage of the opportunity to trade. To get started, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Active Trading Plan - Monday, 21 October 2024

    This page is updated as the price action and news flow develops and, as opportunities are identified in real-time. Research is published DAILY and can be accessed at the following link: www.unum.capital/blog On Friday I published research on Gold Fields, Sibanye Stillwater, Truworths, Bidvest, Tiger Brands (and more). In case you may have missed it, you can read it here: https://www.unum.capital/post/active-trading-plan-friday-18-october-2024 Unum Research Attains 3rd Place In The 2024 Securities Broker Awards. Read More Here:   https://www.unum.capital/post/unum-research-awards COVERAGE: Notes Added Thus Far Today DRD Gold [Added Intraday] Price Action Talking Points JSE Sector Ratings Summary of Technical Trend Ratings JSE Top 40 Index Using Technical Screens To Find Opportunity British American Tobacco (BTI) Gold At Record Highs; GLD (New Gold Issuer) Now +69% SBK Standard Bank (SBK) Naspers Ltd (NPN) Prosus N.V (PRX) Anglogold Ashanti (ANG) Pick n Pay (PIK) Mr Price Group (MRP) Thungela Resources (TGA) South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield (ZA10Y) Anglo American Platinum (AMS) Old Mutual Ltd (OMU) [Global Ideas] Netflix to New Highs Pepkor Holdings (PPH) Mondi Plc Tactical Trading Guide: AGL, HAR, MRP, SHP, SSW, TFG Most Overbought/Oversold Strongest/Weakest Open To Close Trading Setups (via Strategy Screens) DRD Gold [Comment Added Monday 21 October at 13h42) This has been a great recent setup, having consolidated above it's 21-week EMA. Now extended to the upside (in the short term). Price Action Talking Points [Pre-Market] In terms of technical regimes, the mean reversion to a broadly neutral position across most sectors at the start of last week reflected normal price action for a market that was largely overbought in the ultra short term. That overbought condition wasn't limited to one sector, with almost all of the major/heavyweight constituents having previously traded in an overbought range (banks, retailers over the medium term as well as resources in the short term following the economic intervention by the Chinese government). Having retraced, you might have seen a several names setting up for 21-day or 50-day EMA buy re-entries, or at the 8-day EMA for shares that refused to pull back to the same extent as others. From my vantage point, it's a sector-pickers market. Sector constituents often move in tandem and are driven by macro factors such as the expectation for lower interest rates, geopolitics and, as mentioned, stimulus from the Far East. After, a short term pullback, RESOURCE shares are finding their feet. Anglo's up after BHG's top brass visited the country, which raised speculation of another offer. Naturally, this news has reignited buying activity in the sector, but with some peers performing better than others. The buying in BANKS has become less aggressive, which seems natural considering the excessively overbought conditions. This also ties into money having started flowing into resource shares. RETAILERS have been expected to benefit from the two-pot system which has been discounted across several counters, specifically the discretionary names (TFG, MRP etc.) - at current levels, these names looked to be fairly prices versus the attractive valuation on offer before the S/African national election. Staying with the retail sector, TRU might be working on a multi-year breakout above R115. This is a name I highlighted below R60 in 2023! I know that breakouts are not everyone's ideal setup but if you have a long enough time frame, then it may be worth watching. While Shoprite has long been quality, recent downgrades, has put pressure on the share. That isn't unexpected considering the above average valuation. As always, I continue to seek out opportunities for clients to take advantage of short term volatility by adopting a systematic active approaching while remaining flexible. All the best for the week ahead! Important: Please Note The Following: JSE Sector Ratings + Changes Over 5 Trading Sessions Summary of Technical Trend Ratings TECHNICAL SCREENERS: There have been some incredible opportunities to generate cash flow. One of our favorite technical screens is the price vs the 21-week EMA . For new buy/longs ideas, this strategy works well in a market that has been oversold. Here, the share is trades more than 10% below it's 21-week exponential moving average, which may offer a compelling reward-to-risk. Most recently (03 September) I published a screen with several names that matched the criteria. Over the subsequent 6 weeks, the performance has been as follows: GFI +27% [Also flagged via the Tactical Trading Guide] KIO +25% [Also published seperately as a trade idea] IMP +25% [Flagged via the Tactical Trading Guide] SSW +26% [A separate note looked for break to R14 before a rally to R20] NPH +33% [Also a Strategy Alert at R93. Friday's high = +R124] EXX +26% [Also published seperately as a trade idea] ARI +19% [Also flagged as a provisional buy/long as it approached the swing lows] MKR +11% The original screen, as was published, is shown below: The technical screen was originally published here on Tuesday, 03 September at 14h28 : https://www.unum.capital/post/technical-screen-below-21-w-ema-by-10-or-more-tuesday-03-september-2024 This market has, and continues to provide phenomenal opportunities to generate cash flow. Well done to Unum Capital clients that have taken advantage of the opportunity to trade. To get started, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk. JSE Top 40 Index (J200) Are you surprised that the rising 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the previous breakout level acted as a support range? This isn't a coincidence. It's the level that market participants (including institutional investors/algo's) recognize as a support zone which is also likely to be a re-accumulation range. As I previously mentioned, I haven't ruled out a test of the upper boundary of the rising channel structure (denoted by the red shaded area). As at the time of typing (12h16 on Friday), this is what the model reading says: British American Tobacco [Pre-Market] GET READY TO TRADE. A massive unwind from the note on 05 September which highlighted the unappealing reward-to-risk. Now, the share is approaching (1) it's 200-day SMA, (2) the previous breakout level and (3) the incline support extending back to the lows of April. Marked, is my provisional level, which is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Gold At Record Highs; JSE:GLD (New Gold Issuer) +69% New Gold Issuer (JSE:GLD) as highlighted to clients on Monday 07 February 2022 at 26062. Now Trading at 44247 (+69%) SBK Standard Bank [Pre-Market] Considering the weekly time frame, the share has not yet re-tested it's rising 21-week EMA. That is a potential short term support range and a spot for active traders to monitor. Note the model reading on Thursday evening which highlights the 21-week as a next best potential level of buying interest. I'm expecting it to fluctuate around this area and/or overshoot this level to the downside (keep an open mind/remain flexible). NPN Naspers Pre-Market] In line with model reading i.e. look for support/accumulation on the rising 21-day EMA - strong gap up on Friday morning. PRX Prosus [Pre-Market] In line with model reading i.e. look for support/accumulation on the rising 21-day EMA - strong gap up on Friday morning. ANG ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI - A CASH FLOW GENERATING OPPORTUNITY THAT HAS YIELDED STRONG RESULTS. MY UPDATED COMMENT HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ORIGINAL CHART BELOW. PIK Pick n Pay [Pre-Market] Previously alert to an overbought condition with the view to reduce. The share has now breached it's 8 and 21-day EMA, with the price now entering the re-accumulation range which coincides with the rising 75-day EMA and 21-week EMA. MRP Mr Price [Pre-Market] A star performer for several months which has recently started to lose price momentum. For now, holding it's 21-day EMA, but with the deteriorating candle structure, it is vulnerable to breaching this level. Resistance level 1 and 2 has been tested (and rejected) for several sessions (indicative of temporary selling pressure at this range. TGA Thungela Resources [Pre-Market] Strong 2nd day upside reversal off the rising 21-day EMA. I discussed this setup via the Trading Setups/Strategy Screen and updated it on Friday. In case you missed it, you can read it here: https://www.unum.capital/post/active-trading-plan-friday-18-october-2024 AMS Anglo American Platinum [Pre-Market] As highlighted on Wednesday 09 October, support levels 1 and 2 were marked as a provisional next best entry i.e. an expectation for lower prices before a bullish reversal. We saw the share trade into/just above this level (S1) before staging a strong 3-day bullish reversal, reclaiming the 8 and 21-day EMA in the process. The original Anglo Platinum Platinum chart is shown, as published to clients, is below: South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield [Pre-Market] The bullish igniting bar saw upside follow-through while simultaneously emerging from the downward trending channel and clearing the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA has started to gradually turn up, with a first back-test having occurred on Friday 11 October and an upside follow-through that saw the yield trade at it's highest level (9.33%) since 16 August 2024. As mentioned in the original note which alerted to the igniting bar, higher SA bond yields have been historically negative for certain local-facing shares such as banks and property shares, hence no surprise that some of these constituents have lost some upside momentum. Old Mutual OMU [Pre-Market] has stabilized/stopped going down. It traded into the buy re-entry range (coinciding with the 75-day EMA) and, with the candle structure reflecting some renewed buying interest. TO re-iterate, if you zoom out to the monthly chart, you'll notice the share having not participated in the rally while the recent low has been off the 8-month EMA. Fundamentally, the share remains in value territory with a 7x earnings multiple, a 6.3% dividend yield and a price-to-book of below 1x. In an historically expensive market, the valuation may attractive LT investors seeking value. [Global Ideas] Netflix to New Highs Pepkor Holdings [Pre-Market] The share reached my previous measured move target, which coincided with (1) overbought conditions, and (2) the previous multi-month swing highs. As with any attempt to clear resistance within an overbought range, the share has developed a false breakout and is likely to trade at more palatable/normalized technical levels. Or to put in plainly, I expect a reversion to the mean. There are however key level which active traders may want to monitor. They are as follows: Mondi Plc [Pre-Market] There are no guarantees in markets, and there is no guarantee that this trend line will hold, but if the price action stabilizes and the aggressive downward trend slows down, then this is where market participants could consider the share for a rebound buy. NOTE: I am mindful that the share could trade lower. As the 5 to 8 week reading says, " wait for the lower time frames to stabilize". The ST & MT readings state that " the reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position" . This is how I'm seeing it... Tactical Trading Guide These are some of the reading from my model on Friday evening: Strongest/Most Overbought/High Bullish Momentum as of the last close. Weakest/Most Oversold/High Bearish Momentum as of the last close. Most Dominant Buyers (Open To Close) Most Dominant Sellers (Open To Close) Trading Setups (via Strategy Screens) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

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