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- Hyprop Investments: Overextended vs 200-Day SMA - Monday, 16 September 2024
Real-Time: 10h33 Ticker: HYP Current Price: 4197c Trading at 34% above it's 200-day SMA This is the 2nd highest extension since 2005 (a poor reward-to-risk for new buyers) Bias: Reduce/Sell (Previous Post: Weekly Overbought - Thursday, 12 September 2024) Pre-Market Ticker: HYP While the price momentum is strong and the price action reflects aggressive buying activity, the weekly RSI is overbought with a reading of 90. At current levels, the reward-to-risk for new short to medium term buyers is unappealing. (Previous Post: 26 August) Real-Time: 15h21 Ticker: HYP Live Reading via the Tactical Trading Guide Previous Post (29 July) Real-Time: 14h59 Hyprop Investments (HYP) Lighthouse Properties (LTE) ABOVE-AVERAGE VOLUME IN BOTH NAMES, WITH POSITIVE CHANGES FROM THE OPEN. THIS POSSIBLY SUGGESTS RENEWED BYING INTEREST WITH THE CONSOLIDATION RANGES. HYP LTE Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Foretelling Friday: Fed Rate Cut Showdown – 50 vs 25 bps?
As the Fed gears up for its meeting on September 17-18, the market is eagerly awaiting a rate cut. While the consensus is leaning toward a 25 bps reduction, there is still debate around whether the Fed might opt for a more aggressive 50 bps cut. With the market pricing of about 120 bps in cuts by year-end, the expectation for ongoing easing remains strong. The key question is: How will the Fed navigate this pivotal moment? As growth concerns take precedence over inflation, a 50 bps cut would indicate the Fed’s rising anxiety about the state of the economy, which could unsettle markets. Such a move might suggest that the economic outlook is deteriorating more than expected. Conversely, a more measured 25 bps cut is likely, as it would provide markets with a calming signal. A moderate cut like this could reassure investors that the Fed is not panicking, while still addressing the need to support economic growth. This approach would likely be welcomed by equities and other risk-sensitive assets, especially if the Fed signals that it remains open to further cuts should conditions warrant. The Fed's decision will not only impact U.S. markets but will also set the stage for key central bank announcements later in the week. The SARB (3 pm on Thursday), BOE (1 pm on Thursday), and BOJ (6 am on Friday) are all expected to make interest rate decisions shortly after the Fed. The BOE is on track for a total of 55 bps in cuts by the end of the year, while the BOJ is eyeing a modest 8 bps increase in rates as it reconsiders its long-standing ultra-loose policy. For the SARB, inflation data will play a crucial role in shaping the upcoming rate decision. With inflation figures due the day before the SARB meeting, the market is hopeful for a dip in inflation to the 4.5% midpoint of the SARB’s 3-6% target range. A favourable inflation reading would give the SARB room to cut rates, aligning South Africa’s policy outlook with global central trends. Key Questions to Watch: Will the Fed surprise markets with a 50 bps cut, signalling deeper concerns about growth? Will they opt for a more measured 25 bps reduction, and leave the door open for further cuts? Will we see hints of further cuts down the road as economic conditions evolve? Stay informed with Unum Trade as this critical week unfolds.
- Trade Alert: Newmont Corp - Friday, 13 September 2024
Offshore Ticker: NEM Pre-Market: U.S Trading Session S/African Time: 15h07 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trade Alert: Wheaton Precious Metals - Friday, 13 September 2024
Offshore Ticker: WPM Pre-Market: U.S Trading Session S/African Time: 15h09 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- My Trading Notes - Monday, 16 September 2024
Pre-Market Click On Image To Enlarge Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Sibanye Stillwater: Structure In Play (+23%) - Monday, 16 September 2023
Pre-Market: As discussed in my report on Monday 29 July. The share traded very close to the lower boundary of the channel and rebounded by 23% off the lows of the week. The above structure is in line with the same channel discussed close to 3 years ago (December 2021). Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Extreme Positioning: Reverting To The Mean - Monday, 16 September 2024
Pre-Market Here's How Unum Capital Clients Have Benefited Our view over the last 2 to 4 weeks has been for clients to take advantage of the extreme positioning, by reducing/selling SA-facing shares and by buying resource/commodity-related counters. This past week, this view has started to bear fruit, with resource/mining shares experiencing aggressive buying activity (PGMs, Diversified Miners) while SA-focused shares continued to pull back from multi-month highs which coincided with excessively overbought levels as per the weekly charts. Some of these 'SA-Inc' shares continue to trade at extended levels versus their 200-day moving averages (e.g. banks) while others (e.g. retailers have started to reflect distributive price action) for which earnings releases and trading statements were a catalyst for aggressive selling pressure. Think about the food retailers such as Shoprite and Spar which were both sold heavily on earnings. Other names such as Foschini (TFG) retreated from excessively overbought medium term levels of around 14400c-14700c, a range which we flagged as a distribution zone. At the other extreme, African Rainbow Minerals gave traders an opportunity to buy into the previous swing lows (view published) while the strategy alert for Northam Platinum (published at R93) coincides with a range low for a rebound. More broadly, SA-focused shares were trading at extended levels ABOVE their 21-week exponential moving averages while mining/commodity shares were trading at extended levels BELOW their 21-week exponential moving averages. These extended distance readings (vs the 21-weel EMA) have been extremely useful in assessing reward-to-risk and positioning for subsequent share price moves. As part of the daily research published, these are some of the ways in which my views have been expressed. JSE Top 40 Index: Buy pullback into 21-week EMA (decent ultra s/term cash flow generated here) SELL FSR - entry triggered, +300c in the money SELL MRP - entry triggered, moving into the money BUY EXX - entry triggered, starting to move into the money BUY KIO - entry triggered, in the money BUY NPH (Strategy Alert) - Strong rebound from R93 to R105 BUY ARI (Strategy Alert) - Strong rebound from R154 to R173 SELL SHP above R314, trade down to R284. Accounting for the automated data for example, the Tactical Trading Guide, opportunities have been plentiful. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- JSE Trading Setups via Strategy Screens - Monday, 16 September 2024
Pre-Market NOTE: Non-Comprehensive And Subject To Change Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Tactical Trading Guide: BHP Group, Glencore, Northam Platinum, Truworths, Woolworths - Monday, 16 September 2024
PRE-MARKET Tickers: BHG, GLN, NPH, TRU, WHL ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Tactical Trading Guide: Anglo Plc, Exxaro, Firstrand, Impala, Shoprite - Monday, 16 September 2024
PRE-MARKET Tickers: AGL, EXX, FSR, IMP, SHP ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Pepkor Holdings: Bank/Take Profit - Monday, 16 September 2024
Pre-Market Ticker: PPH Now trading +12%. Traders could look to bank/take profit as it approaches the measured move target. Previous Post The share is looking to emerge from a consolidation range, with the measured move being 2323c. The setup is invalidated below 1897c. Last close: 1989c. Note: The breakout could develop over a few days/weeks hence some patience may be required. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Buyer/Seller Dominance: Daily & Weekly - Monday, 16 September 2024
DOMINANT BUYING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (DAILY) DOMINANT SELLING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (DAILY) DOMINANT BUYING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (WEEKLY) DOMINANT SELLING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (WEEKLY) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital











