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- S&P 500 Index - Friday, 06 September 2024
Real-Time: 11h14 Ticker: US500 Following false breakout highlighted at the beginning of last week, the index has reflected increased selling pressure, with: (1) an igniting bar, (2) downside follow-through and (3) positive session opens followed by weaker closes. At current levels, the index is trading below it's 8, 21 and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), but above the 75-day EMA. Also note that the 8 and 21-day EMA has started to turning lower, reflecting a shift to downside momentum over the short term. Probable and possible support and resistance levels are highlighted on the daily chart below. Previous Post: 05 September Real-Time: 14h55 Ticker: US500 Previous Post (28-Aug) Real-Time: 12h51 Ticker: US500 On Tuesday evening (yesterday), the index was being sold aggressively, with it's biggest 1-day loss year-to-date. The move is in line with my view on Monday (pre-market) which was guided by the Tactical Trading Guide (TTG) and which looked for a false breakout followed by a pullback (see slide below) At current levels, the price action reading is as follows: Previous Post (28 August) Real-Time: 21h20 / S/African Time / U.S. Trading Session Ticker: US500 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trade Alert: Firstrand - Friday, 06 September 2024
Pre-Market Ticker: FSR SELL/SHORT at current levels, or higher. Trading at premium valuation vs peer group (p/book at 2.5x vs SBK at 1.6x, ABG at 0.96x, NED at 1.23x). Outside of the Big 4, CPI trades at 7.7x p/book. Technically, the FSR share price is extended vs it's 200-day SMA. Price at 8510c vs 200-day at 6993c at the last close. On a relative basis, vs the JSE Top 40 Index, the share is approaching an overhead resistance range extending back to the Q1 and Q2 2022 highs. Here, it is also extended vs the 200-day SMA. FSR has also featured in my technical screener which highlights stocks that are extended to the upside. The Tactical Trading Guide (medium term, 2 to 4 weeks), supports the view. Time Stop: 17 January 2025 FSR has also featured in my technical screener which highlights stocks that are extended to the upside. As per yesterday's end of day Tactical Trading Guide, the medium term (2 to 4 week) reading is as follows: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trade Alert: Mr. Price - Friday, 06 September 2024
Pre-Market Sell/Short Idea The price has started to reflect selling/distribution, and on this basis, I am publishing a SELL/SHORT trade alert. In addition, to the factors previously expressed (see further below in this page), other drivers for my view are as follows: The governor of the South African Reserve Bank has poured cold water on an interest rate cut in September. According to DFA.co.za, Governor Lesetja Kganyago says the country has to sustain a low inflation rate for a period of time in order for the central bank to justify further interest rate cuts. Technically, relative to the JSE Top 40 Index, the share is trading at an extended level vs the 200-day SMA. I am expecting the share to attempt a rally, however, these spike could be used as an opportunity to initiate a position. Preferred selling range: 23400c to 23700c Stop-loss: 25100c Target: 21100c Time Frame: Medium Term As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Time Stop: Friday, 17 January 2025. (Previous Post: 03 September) Real-Time: 14h43 Ticker: MRP MRP chart #1 (from Sunday report) - big level there at ~R237-ish. MRP chart #2 (as of today's close) - it's been trading into R237 the past two days, with a long term rising wedge. In addition, a very interesting candle (bearish engulfing). MRP chart #3 - price (last close R232) extended vs 200-day SMA (at R176). Trading 31% above it's 200-day SMA. By historical measures, that appears extended to the upside. Previous Post (Caution, New Longs) Ticker: MRP Pre-Market Yesterday evening's reading via the Tactical Trading Guide has caught my attention: As noted at the start of this week. Previous Post (Friday, 16 August) Real-Time: 10h11 Entering An Overbought Range On It's Weekly Chart Recently High Bullish Momentum However, Now Most Overbought Since May 2021 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Buyer/Seller Dominance - Friday, 06 September 2024
DOMINANT BUYING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE DOMINANT SELLING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Short Term: Most Overbought & Most Oversold - Friday, 06 September 2024
HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT / STRONGEST HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERSOLD / WEAKEST Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- S&P 500 Index - Thursday, 05 September 2024
Real-Time: 14h55 Ticker: US500 Previous Post (28-Aug) Real-Time: 12h51 Ticker: US500 On Tuesday evening (yesterday), the index was being sold aggressively, with it's biggest 1-day loss year-to-date. The move is in line with my view on Monday (pre-market) which was guided by the Tactical Trading Guide (TTG) and which looked for a false breakout followed by a pullback (see slide below) At current levels, the price action reading is as follows: Previous Post (28 August) Real-Time: 21h20 / S/African Time / U.S. Trading Session Ticker: US500 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- British American Tobacco: An Unappealing Reward-To-Risk - Thursday, 05 September 2024
Real-Time: 14h00 Ticker: BTI Previous Post(s) Real-Time: 10h53 Ticker: BTI BTI has been a profitable medium term trading opportunity for clients of Unum Capital. At current levels, the high bullish momentum conditions benefit existing shareholders however, it may also be an opportunity to reduce into strength. As re-iterated on Monday, 29 April: As discussed in December: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trade Alert: Kumba Iron Ore - Thursday, 05 September 2024
Real-Time: 11h15 Ticker: KIO Text From Image Below: Less than 1 year ago, overbought levels on KIO offered a level to sell into. From R620, we have seen the price decline to R320. Now, it might be time to reverse this view. A high risk idea, with macro headwinds that have persisted for an extended period, however, at or around the current range, the reward-to-risk favour a buy/long position. Traders could consider starting a position. Key drivers include: (1) the two day candle structure reflecting buying interest (2) the presence of oversold conditions on both the daily and weekly charts. Note: we could see lower levels and a base develop before a bullish reversal commences. As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Time Stop: Friday, 17 January 2025. Same Image. Enlarged, highlighting the levels. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Harmony Gold: 3x Opportunities To Profit - Thursday, 05 September 2024
Real-Time: 09h24 Ticker: HAR Harmony Gold has given Unum Capital clients 3x opportunities to generate cash flow (see updated chart above). Notes were published in real-time at the 3 major recent turning points, with the Tactical Trading Guide helping to assess reward-to-risk and forecast the price action probability for the 3x time frames. Well done to clients who took the opportunity to trade. There have been opportunities to make money. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Afrimat: Poor Price Action On Elevated Volume - Thursday, 05 September 2024
Pre-Market Ticker: AFT Poor price action on above average volume Incline support current being breached Downside risks prevail Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- African Rainbow Minerals: Approaching Key Levels - Thursday, 05 September 2024
Pre-Market Ticker: ARI As per my report on Monday, 02 September (Active Trading Plan), the share is approaching key levels i.e. the previous breakout range and the previous swing lows. Also note the following, yesterday we saw a 'doji' candle being printed, which may be early clues of a slowdown in downward momentum. Note: Event risk in the form of earnings at present (Friday, 06 September). The slide from my report is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Aspen Pharmacare: The Long and Short of It - Thursday, 05 September 2024
Pre-Market Ticker: APN Within the span of 19 months, the share has provided clients of Unum Capital with two opportunities to profit. These opportunities came on both the long (buy) and short (sell) side, benefiting from a rising and falling share price. The short leg provided short term traders with 3x opportunities to sell above 23500c. Although the share briefly test the stop-loss level (a spike), the share pullback was in line with the view. The updated chart, with the time-stamped ideas, is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital











