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  • Trading Strategy Alert: Previous Swing Low/Support Level

    In Progress or Preparing to Buy What does this strategy entail? The instrument is in a short-term downward trend over several days, having been sold off on company-specific news flow or due to overall market or sector weakness. The price then finds support at the swing low, with the candle structure showing signs of improvement (buyers starting to enter). The strategy is ideal for ultra short-term/active traders looking to capitalize on a potential bullish reversal. Note: The technical trend rating could also read: high bearish momentum / approaching oversold. The tickers highlighted assume no existing position held by the trader while the setup is confirmed on the preferred candle structure developing during the upcoming session(s). Unum Trade is your Profit Partner, guiding you through each week’s market journey and strategies. To learn more, contact our Trading Desk team at tradingdesk@unum.co.za or call 011 384 2923.

  • Trading Strategy Alert: Dark Cloud Cover

    Deteriorating Candle Structure at/or Around Overbought Conditions What does this strategy entail? The price has been in an upward trend over the short-term where, as per the relative strength index trades in an overbought range (above 75 on the RSI in an upward trend or above 55 in a bearish retracement) The price hen trades over the prior sessions highs however, fails to hold this level, signalling sellers looking to take control of the rice action. The price then closes the session below the prior day's high, suggesting the potential for a continuation of the bearish reversal in the following session. The tickers highlighted assume no existing position held by the trader while the setup is confirmed on the preferred candle structure developing during the upcoming session(s). Unum Trade is your Profit Partner, guiding you through each week’s market journey and strategies. To learn more, contact our Trading Desk team at tradingdesk@unum.co.za or call 011 384 2923.

  • Trading Strategy Alert: Potential Bullish Consolidation Breakout

    What does this strategy entail? The instrument is in a consolidation range, with mostly price action. A horizontal resistance level has been tested on several occasions i.e. The share has attempted to break about this level. A bullish upside continuation trade may be applicable if the share manages to clear the resistance trading range, with strong intraday price action and large buy orders that can be identified via the order book. Unum Trade is your Profit Partner, guiding you through each week’s market journey and strategies. To learn more, contact our Trading Desk team at tradingdesk@unum.co.za or call 011 384 2923.

  • Trading Strategy: Igniting Bar and Alert

    IGNITING BAR: Bearish Continuation or AT/Near Start of Bearish Reversal What does this strategy entail? The instrument is in a short-term consolidation range or upward trend, from which a large red candle develops. This suggests that traders should: (2) TAKE NOTE of a potential change of trend and (2) TAKE NOTE of the start of potentially aggressive selling. The tickers highlighted assume no existing position held by the trader while the setup is confirmed on the preferred candle structure developing during the upcoming session(s) i.e. follow-through. STRATEGY ALERT:  Potential Bullish Consolidation Breakout What does this strategy entail? THE INSTRUMENT IS IN A CONSOLIDATION RANGE, WITH MOSTLY STRONG PRICE ACTION. A HORIZONTAL RESISTANCE LEVEL HAS BEEN TESTED ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS i.e. THE SHARE HAS MADE ATTEMPTS TO BREAK ABOUT THIS LEVEL. A BULLISH UPSIDE CONTINUATION TRADE MAY BE APPLICABLE IF THE SHARE MANAGES TO CLEAR THE RESISTANCE TRADING RANGE, WITH STRONG INTRADAY PRICE ACTION and/or LARGE BUY ORDERS THAT CAN BE IDENTIFIED VIA THE ORDER BOOK (DEPTH). Unum Trade is your Profit Partner, guiding you through each week’s market journey and strategies. To learn more, contact our Trading Desk team at tradingdesk@unum.co.za or call 011 384 2923.

  • THE PIVOT POINT TRADING STRATEGY

    Pivot point trading is a relatively old strategy but one that is still very relevant even in today’s highly sophisticated markets. A LEADING INDICATOR, originally used by floor traders with a short-term focus, they can give good returns if used consistently.   We will look at 3 types:   Standard Pivot Point Fibonacci Pivot Point Demark Pivot Point   Introduction Pivot points are technical indicators used to define specific support and resistance points for a given instrument.   They are calculated using the previous trading day’s high (H), low (L) and close (C) prices for the stock. Pivot points were originally used by floor traders to give them indications of the range where the stock price would likely trade.   The pivot points give price levels where trends tend to reverse direction.   Key inputs:   Period – the time frame you are calculating High Low Close Open   Most traders today make use of the 5-point pivot system that consists of five pivot points.   The Pivot Point - BASE Support 1 - S1 Support 2  - S2 Resistance 1 - R1 Resistance 2  - R2…   RULE – These levels would be used during the following period, once set they do not change   Calculating the Standard Pivot Point:   The first and most powerful anticipated support/resistance reference point for today’s trading is called the “pivot point”.   This is the simple average of the periods high, low & close   Formula Pivot Point (P) = (High + Low + close)/3   Next, we extrapolate how far we expect the market to move up or down from the pivot point.   Based on the 5-point pivot system, we further make two projected levels of resistances above the pivot points.   The first level of resistance is “R1” and the next higher level of resistance is “R2”.   Next calculate RESISTANCE 1 & 2   Formula Resistance 1 (R1) = (P x 2) – Low Resistance 2 (S2) = P – (High – Low)   In the same way we make projections for two levels of support below the pivot points, the first level of support is “S1” and the next lower level of support is “S2”.   Next calculate the SUPPORT 1 & 2   Formula Support 1 (S1) = (P x 2) – High Support 2 (S2) = P – (High – Low)   There are a number of variations to the calculation of the pivot points but below is the most commonly accepted set of formulae.   Pivot Point: P = (H + L + C)/3   Pivot Resistance Points: R1 = (2 * P) - L R2 = (P - S1) + R1   Pivot Support Points: S1 = (2 * P) - H S2 = P - (R1 - S1)   Fibonacci Pivot Points   Start with the Standard Base Pivot Point   Formula   P = (High + Low +Close)/3   Support 1 (S1) = P – [0.382 x  (High – Low)] Support 2 (S2) = P – {0.618 x (High – Low)} Support 3 (S3) = P – { 1 x (High – Low)}   Resistance 1 (R1) = P + { 0.382 x (High – Low)} Resistance 2 (R2) = P + { 0.618 x (High – Low)} Resistance 3 (R3) = P + { 1 x (High – Low)}   Demark Pivot Points   Start with a different BASE that is conditional on the relationship between the close and open   If Close is < Open, then X = High + (2 x Low) + Close If Close is > Open, then X = (2 x High) + Low + Close If Close is = Open, then X = High+ Low + (2 x Close)   Pivot Point (P) = X / 4 Support 1 (S1) = x / 2 - High Resistance 1 (R1) = x / 2 – Low   Trading with pivots   The various pivot points present levels of support attracting buyers and levels of resistance attracting sellers.   Entry and exit rules are essential for profitable trading as is the case with any trading strategy.   We now consider simple trading rules with pivots.   The Pivot Point (P) sets the tone for price action; In general, should the opening price be above the Pivot Point (P) then the stock price tends to stay above it signaling a bullish trend for the day with first resistance at R1.   If R1 is broken then further resistance will be expected at R2.   A move above (P) is positive and shows strength With target at first Resistance (R1) A break above (R1) sets the target to (R2) Converse is true on the downside Below (P) shows weakness with target (S1) Breaching (S1) shows more weakness to (S2)   The converse is true on the downside. Should the opening price be below (P) then the stock price tends to stay below it giving a bearish outlook for the day. In this instance first support will be found at S1 and if it is broken then further support will be met at S2.   If during the day the stock trades at the R2 or S2 levels, there is a tendency for the price to revert back to the pivot point P.   We realize that comparing the stock opening price with the pivot point P might be misleading hence jeopardizing our trading strategy. We thus propose that we watch the stock movements during the first 30 minutes of trading and then make use of the volume weighted average price (VWAP) thereafter as our “opening price” that we compare with P before we start trading.   Support & Resistance Pivot Points   Use just like traditional support and resistance levels Watch price action closely when levels come into play If prices decline to support and then firm, look for a bullish chart pattern or indicator to confirm the reversal The same on the upside – look for a bearish pattern for a reversal from resistance   Conclusion Start with the direction of crossover (P) Confirm with other aspects of technical analysis RSI - Stochastic – MACD – Williams R%

  • Trading Strategy: Bearish Continuation

    IGNITING BAR: Bearish Continuation or AT/Near start of Bearish reversal What does this strategy entail? The instrument is in a short-term consolidation range or upward trend, from which a large red candle develops. This suggests that traders should: (2) TAKE NOTE of a potential change of trend and (2) TAKE NOTE of the start of potentially aggressive selling. The tickers highlighted assume no existing position held by the trader while the setup is confirmed on the preferred candle structure developing during the upcoming session(s) i.e. follow-through. MARKET NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE IDEA: BUY SHARE 1 / SELL SHARE  2 What does this strategy entail? Simultaneously buying one instrument and selling another, which over the medium to long term have been closely correlated. A successful pair trade can be realized in 1 of 3 ways: (1) The long position rises while the short position falls (2) The long position rises faster than the short position rises (3) The short position falls faster than the long position falls. Market Neutral Strategies can be seen as part of risk management within a broader portfolio. Unum Trade is your Profit Partner, guiding you through each week’s market journey and strategies. To learn more, contact our Trading Desk team at tradingdesk@unum.co.za or call 011 384 2923.

  • Trading Strategy: Igniting Bar Bullish and Bearish Continuation

    IGNITING BAR: Bearish Continuation or AT/Near Start of Bearish Reversal What does this strategy entail? The instrument is in a short-term consolidation range or upward trend, from which a large red candle develops. This suggests that traders should: (2) TAKE NOTE of a potential change of trend and (2) TAKE NOTE of the start of potentially aggressive selling. The tickers highlighted assume no existing position held by the trader while the setup is confirmed on the preferred candle structure developing during the upcoming session(s) i.e. follow-through. IGNITING BAR: Bullish Continuation or AT/Near Start of Bullish Reversal What does this strategy entail? The instrument is in a short-term consolidation range or downward trend, from which a large green candle develops. This suggests that traders should: (2) TAKE NOTE of a potential change of trend and (2) TAKE NOTE of the start of potentially aggressive buying. The tickers highlighted assume no existing position held by the trader while the setup is confirmed on the preferred candle structure developing during the upcoming session(s) i.e. follow-through. Unum Trade is your Profit Partner, guiding you through each week’s market journey and strategies. To learn more, contact our Trading Desk team at tradingdesk@unum.co.za or call 011 384 2923.

  • Trading Strategy: Extended VS 8/21-EMA Range

    EXTENDED VS 8/21-EMA RANGE In progress or preparing to buy into ultra short-term oversold conditions What does this strategy entail? The instrument is in a downward trend over several days, becoming extended versus its moving averages. As the entry for this setup approaches, the candle's structure may reflect excessive selling with large red candles and expanding daily ranges. In the following session, the price may "gap down" and reclaim the prior day's lows to close to positive territory, reflecting short-term buying interest and potential for a 2-4 day rebound. The strategy is ideal for ultra short-term/active traders looking to capitalize on retracements in a bullish short-term trend. The technical trend rating will also read high bearish momentum/approaching oversold. The tickers highlighted assume no existing position held by the trader while the setup is confirmed on the preferred candle structure developing during the upcoming session(s). STRATEGY ALERT: PREVIOUS BREAKOUT LEVEL In progress or preparing to buy into a re-test of the previous breakout level What does this strategy entail? The instrument is in a short-term downward trend over several days, having previously broken out of a range. The price may react to company-specific news flow or be sold in overall market weakness. The price then re-tests the previous breakout level, with the price finding support at or around the prior breakout range. The strategy is ideal for ultra short-term/active traders looking to capitalize on retracements in a bullish short-term trend. The technical trend rating could also read high bearish momentum/approaching oversold. The tickers highlighted assume no existing position held by the trader while the setup is confirmed on the preferred candle structure developing during the upcoming session(s). Unum Trade is your Profit Partner, guiding you through each week’s market journey and strategies. To learn more, contact our Trading Desk team at tradingdesk@unum.co.za or call 011 384 2923.

  • Understanding Relative Rotational Graph (RRG) in Share Trading

    Introduction In the world of equity market analysis, traders and investors often seek to identify promising investment opportunities by evaluating the performance of various shares. One valuable tool that aids in this analysis is the Relative Rotational Graph (RRG). RRG is a graphical representation that helps investors understand the relative strength and momentum of different shares within a given market or sector. What is a Relative Rotational Graph (RRG)? A Relative Rotational Graph is a visual representation of the relative performance of shares in comparison to a benchmark index or a specific group of shares. The graph plots individual shares as data points and illustrates their movement over time, relative to the benchmark. The positioning of each share on the graph provides crucial insights into its relative strength, momentum, and potential investment opportunities. How RRG Works: The Four Quadrants The RRG chart is divided into four quadrants, each representing different stages of relative performance: Leading (Leading Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are exhibiting strong relative strength and positive momentum compared to the benchmark. They are outperforming the broader market or sector and are considered leaders in terms of price performance. These shares are regarded as potential Profit takes or Holds candidates. Weakening (Weakening Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are experiencing a decline in relative strength compared to the benchmark. While they might still be in an uptrend, their momentum is slowing down, and they may be losing some of their leadership positions. These shares are classified as potential Deteriorating candidates or short-selling. Lagging (Lagging Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are underperforming the benchmark. They are experiencing weak relative strength and may be struggling compared to other shares or the broader market. These shares are classified as potential Avoid candidates. Improving (Improving Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are showing signs of improvement in relative strength, indicating that they are gaining momentum and starting to outperform the benchmark. These shares are considered as potential Buy candidates. Interpreting RRG for Investment Insights When analysing a Relative Rotational Graph, traders and investors can draw several meaningful conclusions: Identifying Leaders and Laggards: RRG helps investors quickly identify which shares are leading the market's upward trends and which are lagging behind. Leading shares in the Leading Quadrant might be attractive investment candidates, while those in the Lagging Quadrant could warrant closer examination to understand potential weaknesses. Spotting Trend Reversals: A changing position of a share on the RRG can signal a potential trend reversal. For example, a share moving from the Weakening Quadrant to the Improving Quadrant may indicate a shift in momentum and an upcoming upward trend. Diversification Insights: RRG can assist in portfolio diversification by highlighting shares that exhibit a low correlation with the benchmark. Adding shares with diverse movement patterns can help reduce overall portfolio risk. Monitoring Sector Rotations: RRG is especially useful for sector rotation strategies, where investors rotate their investments based on the relative strength of sectors. It helps identify which sectors are currently leading or lagging in the market. Limitations of RRG While RRG is a valuable tool, it is essential to recognize its limitations: Historical Performance: RRG is based on past price data and may not always predict future movements accurately. Not a Standalone Indicator: RRG should be used in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools for comprehensive decision-making. Volatility Impact: Highly volatile shares may exhibit erratic movements on the RRG, making interpretation challenging. Conclusion Relative Rotational Graphs provide traders and investors with a powerful visual representation of the relative performance of shares compared to a benchmark index or a group of shares. By understanding the quadrants and interpreting the movements of individual shares, investors can gain valuable insights into market trends, identify potential investment opportunities, and optimise their portfolio allocations. As with any investment analysis tool, it should be used alongside other methods and within the context of a well-thought-out investment strategy. Top 40 Share constituent RRG chart: The output displayed below compares the individual constituents of the JSE Top 40 index against the index itself. This output undergoes daily updates, and to enhance clarity, various colour backgrounds are utilised for ease of reference. Leading (Leading Quadrant): Green background. These shares are regarded as potential Profit takes or Hold candidates. Weakening (Weakening Quadrant): Yellow background. These shares are classified as potential Deteriorating candidates or short-selling. Lagging (Lagging Quadrant): Red background. These shares are classified as potential Avoid candidates. Improving (Improving Quadrant): Blue background. These shares are considered potential Buy candidates. Assign ranking numbers to each share based on the overall RRG strength. The ranking of each share within a quadrant reflects the top selections. Leading quadrant Ticker RS_Current MOM_Current Quadrant_Current Quadrant_Previous 31 PRX 4.635220 4.706384 Leading Leading 28 NPN 4.321966 5.781142 Leading Leading 40 WHL 3.214569 1.346693 Leading Leading 12 CPI 2.128306 0.011263 Leading Lagging 32 REM 1.957463 2.315433 Leading Weakening 36 SLM 1.858688 1.426575 Leading Leading 39 VOD 1.722639 0.933061 Leading Weakening 34 SBK 1.704293 0.525711 Leading Leading 11 CLS 1.433720 1.905672 Leading Weakening 18 GRT 1.277759 3.780467 Leading Weakening Weakening quadrant Ticker RS_Current MOM_Current Quadrant_Current Quadrant_Previous 24 MRP 0.988664 0.087408 Weakening Leading 29 NRP 0.688126 10.045627 Weakening Weakening 9 BVT 0.685161 0.819157 Weakening Leading 17 GLN -0.646866 2.471614 Weakening Weakening 22 MCG -0.753330 2.611908 Weakening Weakening Lagging quadrant Ticker RS_Current MOM_Current Quadrant_Current Quadrant_Previous 5 APN 0.926965 -6.888901 Lagging Lagging 21 INP 0.700394 -0.062059 Lagging Weakening 25 MTN 0.675627 -7.611135 Lagging Lagging 35 SHP 0.667263 -1.245919 Lagging Lagging 30 OMU 0.537958 -4.484107 Lagging Improving 13 DSY 0.472451 -3.228914 Lagging Lagging 20 INL 0.377632 -2.724667 Lagging Lagging 6 BHG 0.251739 -0.078106 Lagging Lagging 15 FSR -0.163357 -1.197362 Lagging Leading 3 ANG -0.303663 -7.871808 Lagging Weakening 26 NED -1.218992 -2.125426 Lagging Lagging 23 MNP -1.219209 -8.098710 Lagging Lagging 1 AGL -1.707847 -2.438613 Lagging Leading 14 EXX -2.329762 -6.066699 Lagging Lagging 16 GFI -2.342885 -3.788026 Lagging Lagging 19 IMP -3.214657 -3.996455 Lagging Improving 37 SOL -4.056070 -4.861254 Lagging Lagging 38 SSW -4.531417 -32.179985 Lagging Improving 27 NPH -6.527576 -3.894969 Lagging Leading Improving quadrant Ranking   Share RS MOM 10 CFR 3.847374 -5.107538 Improving Lagging 2 AMS 2.268331 -0.438615 Improving Improving 7 BID 2.036175 -4.762845 Improving Leading 0 ABG 1.605753 -0.435810 Improving Improving 8 BTI 1.572166 -1.836469 Improving Lagging 33 RNI 1.546640 -5.648897 Improving Lagging 4 ANH 1.380332 -1.199491 Improving Improving Largest Changes in Relative Strength: Ticker RS_Change MOM_Change 10 CFR 22.398673 -17.850792 31 PRX 19.000277 26.347065 28 NPN 18.083459 8.233286 33 RNI 15.264736 -26.859147 29 NRP 11.903488 42.652940 Largest Changes in Momentum: Ticker RS_Change MOM_Change 29 NRP 11.903488 42.652940 31 PRX 19.000277 26.347065 18 GRT 7.068152 15.823524 17 GLN -6.010240 14.925120 32 REM 8.105102 9.503940 Changes in Quadrants: Ticker Quadrant_Change 1 AGL Leading to Lagging 3 ANG Weakening to Lagging 7 BID Leading to Improving 8 BTI Lagging to Improving 9 BVT Leading to Weakening 10 CFR Lagging to Improving 11 CLS Weakening to Leading 12 CPI Lagging to Leading 15 FSR Leading to Lagging 18 GRT Weakening to Leading 19 IMP Improving to Lagging 21 INP Weakening to Lagging 24 MRP Leading to Weakening 27 NPH Leading to Lagging 30 OMU Improving to Lagging 32 REM Weakening to Leading 33 RNI Lagging to Improving 38 SSW Improving to Lagging 39 VOD Weakening to Leading

  • Platinum (XPTUSD) Reclaims $1000 - Thursday, 27 June 2024

    UPDATE: Strong upside follow-through on reading from Tactical Trading Guide as well as manual view which looked for $944 to $954 as a level of support or buy/long re-accumulation. Current Technical Chart Original Technical Chart View Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Top 40 Index - Thursday, 27 June 2024

    On Wednesday, sellers overpowered buyers, sending the index lower by breaching the support level that had been held over the previous 3 to 5 sessions. The index closed at the lows of the day, in line with the 8-day EMA, which appears vulnerable to a breach upon analysis of the candle structure. As per the end of day reading via the Tactical Trading Guide, the 21-day EMA (~71947)is a next best potential level of support and potential re-accumulation zone. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • The Benefits Of An Active Approach: Richemont As A Real-Time Example - Wednesday, 26 June 2024

    Unum Capital clients have benefitted from timely views on Richemont, with opportunities for cash generation on both the long (buy) and short (sell) side. To open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-Mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Opportunity #1. 14 March 2024: Pre-Market Warning Regarding Downside Risk Using 'Distance' As A Risk Management Tool. The share peaked on this day. Opportunity #2. 04 April: Preparing clients to buy the print into R2630 - R2657. The share traded into that level, from which we saw a significant rally. Opportunity #3. 07 June: Trade Idea (Sell). The share declined sharply in the subsequent days. Opportunity #4. 24 June: Anticipating A Near Term Rebound: The share has immediately started to rally. In Summary Of The Opportunities Number 1 To 4 Discussed Above, The Chart Below Highlights The Opportunity Set Which Unum Capital Clients Had Access To: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

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