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- Update: TFG - Initial Rebound - Tuesday, 09 April 2024
Tuesday, 09 April 2024 | 06h30 Reading Time: 1 Minute To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 TFG The Foschini Group | If you are an active trader, there are multiple opportunities to generate cash around. TFG traded into the initial support zone and has rebound from around 9644c to yesterday's high of 10129c. The chart, as of yesterday's close, is shown below. In addition, the reading from yesterday's end of day Tactical Trading Guide is shown below. The original comment, as published on Wednesday 03 April, is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Comparing Value Traded to the Daily Average Value traded for JSE shares
What is a Heatmap? This heatmap displays value trader data regarding the top 60 JSE (Johannesburg Stock Exchange) shares. It depicts how their last value traded compares to their average daily value traded over the last 20 days. Share Tickers: Each block or cell in the heatmap is labelled with a ticker symbol, representing a particular share on the JSE. For example, "IMP" or "NPN" are tickers for specific companies listed o the JSE. Axes: The x-axis represents the "Percentage of Average Value Traded", ranging from zero to positive percentages. It illustrates the daily variations in a share's trading volume (value traded), where increased positive values indicate an increase in the value of shares traded. Block size: The size of each block signifies the "Value Traded" for a particular share in a day, compared to its 20-day value traded, expressed as a percentage. The greater the block size, the more significant the increase in value traded. Furthermore, blocks with a reddish hue indicate that the value traded is associated with a volume spike. In essence, a volume spike refers to a sudden and notable increase in the number of shares traded in a short period, often signalling heightened traders and investor interest or activity in that particular share. "Value Traded" denotes the total monetary amount of a specific share exchanged on the equity market within a given day. It is determined by multiplying the volume of shares traded with their average trading price for that day. Formula: Value Traded = Number of Shares Traded × Average Trading Price of the Share Average Value Traded Per Share, is the average of the daily traded values for the last 20 trading sessions. It provides a more stable measure to compare against a single day's value traded. Formula: Percentage of average value traded = Value traded for one day ÷ 20-Day Average Value Traded How to Use the Heatmap: The presence of various colors from blue to red suggests that there's a diverse trading behavior among the top 60 JSE shares. Some share are experiencing a surge in trading activity, while others are seeing less than usual. The shares in the red zone might be experiencing significant events, news, or developments leading to heightened trader and investor interest, resulting in higher trading volumes. Conversely, the shares in the blue zone could be in a consolidation phase, or there might not be any significant news driving the share, leading to decreased interest and trading activity. Interpretation Liquidity Indicator A higher average traded value suggests that the share is more liquid, meaning it can be bought or sold in larger quantities without causing significant price movements. This can be beneficial for large institutional investors who need to make big trades without impacting the price too much. Trader and Investor Interest A sudden spike in the daily value traded compared to the 20-day average can indicate heightened trader and investor interest, either due to recent news, earnings announcements, or other market events. Value Traded Per Day > 20-Day Average (large red blocks): When the value traded on a particular day is significantly higher than the 20-day average, it could signify increased buying/selling activity. This could be due to recent positive/negative news, earnings beats/misses, or sector-specific developments. Such spikes warrant further investigation into why traders and investors are showing increased interest. Value Traded Per Day < 20-Day Average (large blue blocks): If the value traded on a particular day is much lower than the 20-day average, it might indicate decreased interest or a potential consolidation phase. In such cases, traders and investors might be in a "wait and watch" mode, or there might not be any significant news driving the share. Consistency (small red and blue blocks) If the daily traded value remains consistently close to the 20-day average, it suggests stability in the share's trading patterns. However, small red blocks signify that traded values for these shares are also higher than their respective averages. Conclusion This heatmap provides a visual snapshot of the trading activity of the top 60 JSE shares relative to their average daily values. Traders and investors can use such visualisations to quickly identify shares with abnormal trading volumes, which might warrant further investigation or present potential trading opportunities. In all the scenarios presented, it is crucial to consider other market indicators and conduct a comprehensive analysis before making investment decisions. External factors, such as macroeconomic conditions, industry trends, and geopolitical events, can also influence share price movements and trading volumes.
- JSE Volume Analysis
Introduction: This graph is a scatter plot presenting volume analysis for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The horizontal axis (x-axis) represents the "Volume multiple of the last 200 trading days", indicating how much the volume of the day’s trading compares to the average of the last 200 days. A value of 1 would mean the volume is equal to the 200-day average, values greater than 1 mean more than average volume, and values less than 1 mean less than average volume. The vertical axis (y-axis) shows the "Percentage daily change", which represents the percentage change in the share price compared to the previous day. Positive values indicate an increase in share price, while negative values indicate a decrease. The points on the graph are labelled with ticker symbols representing different companies. Points above the horizontal axis represent shares that have increased in price, and points below it represent shares that have decreased in price. Similarly, points to the right of the vertical axis represent shares with higher trading volumes than the average, and points to the left represent shares with lower-than-average trading volumes. Interpretation: Shares in the upper right quadrant (green dots) could be considered strong performers as they are experiencing both a high volume of trading and an increase in price. This could indicate positive investor sentiment and possibly a good buying opportunity if the momentum is expected to continue. Shares in the lower right quadrant (red dots) might be experiencing a high volume of trades but are decreasing in price. This could signal a selling pressure or negative sentiment, and investors might want to investigate further before making a decision, as they could represent either a potential for buying at a lower price (if the fundamentals are solid) or a risk if the price continues to decline. Shares in the lower left quadrant (red dots) are seeing both lower volumes and a decrease in price, which could be a sign of weak investor interest or a negative outlook, suggesting caution. Shares in the upper left quadrant (green dots) are experiencing an increase in price despite trading at lower volumes, which could indicate undervalued opportunities but also might suggest lower confidence among investors, thus these would require careful analysis. Before making any investment decisions, it is important to consider other factors beyond just the volume and price change. These can include fundamental analysis of the company's financial health, news, industry trends, and overall market conditions. Additionally, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Always conduct thorough research.
- Update: Sasol Ltd - Higher By 23% - Tuesday, 09 April 2024
Tuesday, 09 April 2024 | 06h30 Reading Time: 1 Minute To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 SOL Sasol Ltd | UPDATE: Yesterday the share reached a high of 16535c, which is a 23.6% (ungeared) gain from the triple buy signal published to Unum Capital clients on Tuesday 19 March (pre-market). The move was supported by the group's market updated regarding it's appealing being upheld regarding the Secunda sulphur dioxide emissions. For short term traders, the large gain may be an opportunity to reduce buy/long positions into further strength with the possibility of re-entering on a pullback. Do however note that bullish momentum is high which means that we could see further gains on the back of the announcement. The reading from yesterday's end of day Tactical Trading Guide as well as the updated chart, is shown below. The original comment, as published on Tuesday 19 March, is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Update: Firstrand Ltd (FSR) - Tuesday, 09 April 2024
Tuesday, 09 April 2024 | 06h30 Reading Time: 1 Minute To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 FSR Firstrand Ltd | UPDATE: The share has started to turn up, with improving candle structure while also following potential price path, as discussed on Friday 22 March (pre-market). Below is yesterday's end of day reading from the Tactical Trading Guide as well as the updated chart. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Update: Platinum - Tuesday, 09 April 2024
Tuesday, 09 April 2024 | 06h30 Reading Time: 1 Minute To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Platinum | At the time of writing (Monday 08 April, 21h12), Platinum is currently higher by 3.76% on the day. The commodity is starting to following the price path as I discussed in my note, last week Wednesday (03 April), "Does Platinum Have A Silver Lining"?. In case you may have missed it, you can read it by click on the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/does-platinum-have-a-silver-lining-wednesday-03-april-2024 This is a daily chart of Platinum (XPTUSD), this evening. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Active Trading Plan: Bid Corp (BID) - Tuesday, 09 April 2024
Tuesday, 09 April 2024 | 06h30 Reading Time: 1 Minute To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Tuesday 09 April 2024, 06h30 | BID Corp | The resistance level at R461 has held and the share has, in the short term shifted to high bearish momentum phase (while approaching oversold). The share is also approaching the previous mentioned level of R425 (the 200-day SMA at the time). The 200-day SMA is now R428. As I previously noted at R470 on 05 February (near the peak), the reward-to-risk for new buyers was unappealing (see extract below). Following this we saw an immediate, sharp pullback to R422. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- JSE Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps - Tuesday, 09 April 2024
READING TIME: 1 MINUTE [NEW LAYOUT] This new layout/format has the additional feature of displaying the share's change from open (i.e. the change of share from the start of the session i.e. 9am to the close i.e. 5pm. This is a useful feature as it helps a trader ascertain the strength of buyers/sellers within the said regime. THIS TABLE SHOWS A SHARE'S TECHNICAL RATING AT IT'S LAST CLOSE. Resource Centre: Price Cycle - The Yellow Line is an example which illustrates how a share price can develop over time, moving between the various short term technical ratings. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Buyer/Seller Dominance - Tuesday, 09 April 2024
READING TIME: 1 MINUTE TUESDAY, 09 APRIL 2024 | 06h30 THESE TABLE SHOW WHERE BUYERS/SELLERS HAVE BEEN THE MOST DOMINANT. Candlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period. END OF DAY Top 15 (Strongest) Bottom 15 (Weakest) Related Post: https://www.unum.capital/post/tactical-trading-guide Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Analyst Thoughts: Bitcoin - A bigger picture
VOLATILE GAINS AS BULL TREND MATURES. Overview: The depicted scenario suggests that the current trend is unfolding as anticipated, maintaining the outlined trajectory. The price action appears to be in the midst of a bullish phase, specifically in the third wave, with expectations for phases four and five to unfold before the trend reaches its culmination. The region between T1 and T3 is highlighted for its potential Fibonacci extension levels. It is anticipated that the gains of the current phase three will peak around P/T1, which will be succeeded by a corrective phase four, dropping to S1*. The bullish trend, identified by sequence 1,2,3,4,5 is predicted to complete with a final push to the T1/T2 area, which is marked as a target. Following the bullish trend, a significant A,B,C correction is expected, potentially reaching down to at least S3. It is important to note that the overbought RSI indicator (not shown), along with the explosive growth in phase three of the bull market, is likely to lead to medium-term volatility. This pattern could mirror the volatility observed in a previous similar period.
- Research: Insights & Opportunities - Tuesday, 12 March 2024
To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital 06h30 | JSE Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps, as of yesterday’s close. 06h30 | JSE Relative Sector Regimes, as of yesterday afternoon. Top 40, Technology, Diversified Miners, Banks, Insurers Coal Miners, Telecoms, Paper & Pulp, Chemicals, Luxury Goods, USD/ZAR Gold Miners, Platinum Miners, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Pharmaceuticals & Hospitals 06h30 | HAR Harmony Gold - trading 99% above it’s 200-week SMA...that’s technically expensive and 2x it’s long term average. In addition, the SHORT TERM reading on the Tactical Trading Guide states: “…extremely overbought”. See the TTG for the complete reading. Previous buy signals for Harmony below R70 in August and October Read more about it here. 06h30 | NED Nedbank Group Ltd | UPDATE: At R230 the share was overbought however the idea was to re-enter a buy/long on a pullback to R220 (see research extract below). We saw the share pull back followed by a rebound off ~R220…now at a 7-month high. Well done if you took the opportunity to trade. My previous comment is shown below: NED Update: Approaching the 23800c technical target. 06h30 | KIO Kumba Iron Ore | UPDATE: As far as I can see, yesterday’s sharp move lower wasn’t due to any ex-dividend date, but rather the suspension of operations on South Africa's main iron ore export line following a train derailment early Sunday (source: MarketWatch/MorningStar). Yesterday's end-of-day reading via the Tactical Trading Guide is as follows: Note the LONG TERM column (5 to 8 weeks). It’s states: “…broadly weak, expect a small rebound.” In my experience of using this data, my view view is that you have to give the long term time frame time to develop, or other words, time for the setup to take shape and present itself. Remember, the share can continue to fall or take a few days/weeks for a base to develop before we potentially see a bullish reversal. Most recently, clients were alerted to a SELL/SHORT idea on Kumba at 61235c (Monday 27 November). The market was kind me on this idea as the share started to turn lower, immediately. Well done to all clients who managed to take advantage of the opportunity to trade......last close R487. 06h30 | GLN Glencore Plc | Making use of the Tactical Trading Guide gives you an advantage and may add to your thought process by providing an unbiased view regarding price action. Yesterday’s price movement in Glencore is confirmation of the short term (1 to 10 days) pre-market reading which was as follows” “General trend up however, look for failure to hold the prior session highs to initiate a 1 to 2 day short/sell setup”. The chart below is of 11:45am yesterday morning. 06h30 | BID Corp | UPDATE: The automated data (Tactical Trading Guide) for Monday 05 February stated that the most probable directions were (1) a minor pullback or (2) a consolidation. The share peaked during the following session (Tuesday 06 February) from a high of R478 to a low of R422. This potential price action development was also specifically discussed on the same day (pre-market) Monday 05 February. The research extract (with price chart at R470) is shown below. Tuesday 12 March 2024, 06h30 | BID Corp | Where To Next? | Over the short term, the share has been stuck in a range, lacking directional bias. Sellers have been controlling the R460 level, which is evident as the price has tested this range for several sessions, however has struggled clear/reclaim it. Considering the daily chart, a breach of the incline support could bring the 200-day moving average (~R425) back into focus. It may also be worth noting that the share is trading 35% above it’s 200-week SMA, which by historical measures, appear extended to the upside. 06h30 | Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary on Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap): Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click here to access the data set => https://www.unum.capital/post/tactical-trading-guide Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Resource Centre Research Disclaimer (Click Here) Research Philosophy - Click Here To Read Top Trading Tips: (1) Let The Candle Confirm (Click Here To Read) (2) Failure & Reclaim (Click here To Read) (3) Igniting Bar (Click Here To Read) Resource Centre (1) Standard Deviation Chartbook Introduction (Click Here) (2) Standard Deviation: Range of Outcomes & Traders Potential Action (Click Here) (3) Optimal Conditions For Bullish & Bearish Trading Setups (Click Here) (4) Core Trading Principles (5) Core Macro Principles Systematic Insights: Timely Trading Signals Via The Tactical Trading Guide: MTN, MNP, TBS, SBK, DSY, TKG, MTM, HAR, GFI, IMP (Click Here)
- Analyst Thoughts - USD/ZAR Medium-Term
A BULLISH TREND TO 20.91 IS LIKELY, THEN DOWN TO 17.60. Medium-Term Outlook: The RS triangle pattern, typically indicative of a forthcoming upward trend, is expected to lead to a rally towards T1. This upward movement might be interspersed with declines towards the S1*/S2 support zone, represented by variables x, y, z. The RS pattern is nearing the end of its formation, suggesting limited downside to S and S1* could finalise the pattern, propelling the market towards a bullish phase to T1. A breakout above R/R1* would validate the anticipated gains. A significant correction towards S1*, denoted by x, y, z, would not disrupt the overarching bullish trend. Key Levels: R1* and S1* mark the boundaries of the current sideways movement. Confidence Level: Medium to high.










