Search this site

To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Recent Media Commentary: 14-March Bloomberg (African Rainbow Capital)  | Bloomberg (Woolworths) | Bloomberg (MTN Group) Friday, 22 March 2024 - [click on the text below to access the research] FSR Firstrand Ltd SPP Spar Group GLN Glencore Plc WHL Woolworths JSE Gold Miner (ANG, GFI) CFR Richemont JSE Technical Ratings Summary: Mid & Large Caps JSE Relative Sector Ratings + Short Term Change Technical Summary (Expanded) With Candle Strength (%) Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap Wednesday, 20 March 2024 - [click on the text below to access the research] ANG Anglogold Ashanti RDF Redefine Properties GRT Growthpoint Properties Offshore Coal Stocks: Arch Resources & Peabody Energy Horizon Kinetics Inflation Expectations ETF (INFL) TGA Thungela Resources: Update JSE Technical Ratings Summary: Mid & Large Caps JSE Relative Sector Ratings + Short Term Change Technical Summary (Expanded) With Candle Strength (%) Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap Tuesday, 19 March 2024 - [click on the text below to access the research] BHG BHP Group NTC Netcare CPI Capitec Bank SHP Shoprite Hldgs SOL Sasol Ltd SLM Sanlam JSE Technical Ratings Summary: Mid & Large Caps JSE Relative Sector Ratings + Short Term Change Technical Summary (Expanded) With Candle Strength (%) Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap Monday, 18 March 2024 - [click on the text below to access the research] MARKET DASHBOARD: A high level overview of global markets CREDIT SPREADS: Information from the bond market to assess risk RELATIVE SECTOR REGIMES: Use this to view the change in sector regime, compared to the broader market JSE SECTORS vs KEY MOVING AVERAGES TECHNICAL SUMMARY: JSE Mid & Large Caps. Use this screen to ascertain where a share is ranked in the short term (from overbought to oversold) ENERGY has been a leader: #1 Performing Sector Over One Month CANDLE STRENGTH: A simple but effective graphic to view how strong/weak buyers or sellers were on the day POTENTIAL PRICE PATHS for: APN Aspen Pharmacare, HAR Harmony Gold, SHP Shoprite Holdings, SBK Standard Bank TWO SHARES where the reward-to-risk is starting to favour sellers IMP IMPALA PLATINUM: Full Target Reached At R78 NED NEDBANK GROUP: Upside target reached + retreat from sell zone TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (Share Commentary): Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap Friday, 15 March 2024 - [click on the text below to access the research] Brent Crude Oil Stoxx 600 / Stoxx 600 Oil & Gas EXX Exxaro Resources SBK Standard Bank JSE Technical Ratings Summary: Mid & Large Caps Technical Summary (Expanded) With Candle Strength (%) Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap Thursday, 14 March 2024 - [click on the text below to access the research] JSE Technical Ratings Summary: Mid & Large Caps [Ranked From Overbought To Oversold] Technical Summary (Expanded) With Candle Strength (%) CFR Richemont: Relative Risk-To-Reward Unappealing IMP Impala Platinum Approaching R78 Target Satrix RESI vs Satrix FINI: Sector Rotation, Now +10% Copper Futures: Bullish Reversal + Multi-Month High Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap Wednesday, 13 March 2024 JSE Technical Ratings Summary: Overbought To Oversold JSE Relative Sector Regimes: Compare A Sector Versus The Broader Market (JSE Tech As An Example) Potential Price Paths: CPI Capitec Bank, ABG Absa, HAR Harmony Gold WHL Woolworths: Medium Term Unwind + Remains Weak Naspers & Prosus: Signal & Rally Strategy Screen: TRU & BVT Technical Summary (Expanded) With Candle Strength (%) Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap Tuesday, 12 March 2024 JSE Technical Summary JSE Relative Sector Regimes HAR Harmony Gold KIO Kumba IO: Multi-Month Low/Transnet Main Line Suspended NED Nedbank: R220 Re-Entry, Now 7-Month High GLN Glencore Plc BID Corp: Retreat from All-Time Highs + Where To Next? Technical Summary (Expanded) With Candle Strength (%) Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap Monday, 11 March 2024 Market Dashboard JSE Sectors vs Key Moving Averages + Status Technical Summary: JSE Mid & Large Caps JSE Relative Sector Regimes JSE Relative Sector Ratings SBK Standard Bank BVT Bidvest Group Overbought In The Short Term Oversold In The Short Term Higher Time Frames Tend To Dominate ARI African Rainbow Minerals: Update Update: Global Insurers & Re-Insurers Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap Friday, 08 March 2024 Technical Summary: JSE Mid & Large Caps Technical Screen: Overbought In The Short Term Technical Screen: Strong within a bullish regime JSE Relative Sector Regimes DCP Dis-Chem Pharmacies: 5 Points To Note NPN Naspers Ltd Update: STXRES Satrix Resources IMP Impala Platinum: Strong Candle Structure + Potential Price Path HAR Harmony Gold: Overbought + Potential Retrace & Gap Fill TGA Thungela Resource: Base & Reversal QCOM Qualcomm: Full Target Reached. Bank/Take Profit Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap Thursday, 07 March 2024 Gold: Flash Comment These Shares are Overbought In The Short Term These Share Are Consolidating With A Bullish Regime SPP Spar Group Ltd SSW Sibanye Stillwater Prosus N.V Anglo American Plc JSE Technical Summary JSE Relative Sector Regimes Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap Wednesday, 06 March 2024 Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds (TIPS) vs Traditional/Nominal Bonds (IEF) NYSE New Highs/Lows HAR Harmony Gold AVI Ltd JSE Technology vs JSE Top 40 Index JSE Technical Summary JSE Relative Sector Regimes Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap Tuesday, 05 March 2024 DRD Gold VOD Vodacom MTN Group APN Aspen Pharmacare : 2-Year High BVT Bidvest Group Richards Bay Coal Futures: $91 Key Level Brent Crude Oil: Update QCOM Qualcomm Inc: Approaching Buy/Long Target JSE Technical Summary JSE Relative Sector Regimes Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap Monday, 04 March 2024 Leading/Lagging Sectors JSE Technical Summary JSE Relative Sector Regimes JSE Relative Sector Ratings ADH Advtech Ltd SHP Shoprite Holdings Active Insights: OMU | AGL | SOL | NPN | CFR TRU Truworths: Strong Bullish Reversal Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap Friday, 01 March 2024 March Seasonality DRD Gold: Update - Positive Price Action +4.5% BAW Barloworld: Price Target Upgraded To R106 via Absa Large & Liquid: MTN | AGL | APN | BHG | SBK SLM Sanlam Ltd: Strong Earnings + Well Received JSE Technical Summary JSE Relative Sector Regimes Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap Thursday, 29 February 2024 Price Action Talking Points Strategy Screen: BAW Barloworld, DRD Gold, MKR Montauk Renewables & MTN Group TGA Thungela Resources RNI Reinet: Extended vs 200-Week SMA JSE Technical Summary JSE Relative Sector Regimes Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap Wednesday, 28 February 2024 JSE Technical Summary JSE Relative Sector Regimes BVT Bidvest Group SOL Sasol Ltd CFR Richemont TRU Truworths ABG Absa Group Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap The Types of Traders Who Are Making Money Tuesday, 27 February 2024 JSE Top 40 Index: Linear Regression Analysis {published intraday} CPI Capitec Bank VOD Vodacom Group MTN Group SBK Standard Bank JSE Technical Summary JSE Relative Sector Regimes Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap Monday, 26 February 2024 Talking Points JSE Technical Summary JSE Relative Sector Regimes SAP Sappi VOD Vodacom Group TGA Thungela Resources CFR Richemont: Unappealing Reward-To-Risk JSE Banks vs JSE Top 40 Index Satrix Resources (STXRES) vs Satrix Financials (STXFIN) Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap Friday, 23 February 2024 JSE Technical Summary AMS Anglo American Platinum TRU Truworths NPN Naspers MNP Mondi Plc AVI Ltd SOL Sasol JSE Relative Sector Regimes Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap Thursday, 22 February 2024 NED Nedbank Group {published intraday} Copper/Gold Ratio {published intraday} JSE Top 40 Index Tactical Trading Guide: NPN Naspers Tactical Trading Guide: BHG BHP Group Tactical Trading Guide: SBK Standard Bank Tactical Trading Guide: CPI Capitec Bank JSE Relative Sector Regimes JSE Technical Summary JSE Relative Sector Ratings Wednesday, 21 February 2024 Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF {published intraday} S&P 500 Index (E-mini Future) {published intraday} Bid Corp {published intraday} NPN Naspers Flash Comments: CLS, WHL, SPP, CFR JSE Top 40 Index NED Nedbank Group MNP Mondi Plc JSE Relative Sector Regimes JSE Technical Summary Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap Tuesday, 20 February 2024 FX: USD/ZAR: Linear Regression Analysis {published intraday} JSE Top 40 Index: Linear Regression Analysis Technical Screen: Price vs 75-EMA CFR Richemont AGL Anglo American Plc JSE Technical Summary JSE Relative Sector Regimes Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap Monday, 19 February 2024 S&P 500 Index Future: Distance Divergence {published intraday} Global Risk Index JSE Technical Summary JSE Relative Sector Regimes Satrix Resources (STXRES) vs Satrix Financials (STXFIN) JSE Staples/JSE Discretionary x USDZAR x Rand-Oil Price JSE Banks vs JSE Insurers ANG Anglogold Ashanti NED Nedbank Group: Breakout + Approaching Target SBK Standard Bank: Pros & Cons SSW Sibanye Stillwater IMP Impala Platinum Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap

To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Good day. Thank you for taking the time to visit this page. My overall goal is to provide you with leading, high quality information by conveying my best interpretation of the most relevant market information in order for you, as a client to: (1) understand and profit from the potential opportunities and manage the potential risks and (2) make informed decisions around trading opportunities. To read my full research philosophy, please visit the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/research-philosophy. Resource Centre: Price Cycle - The Yellow Line is an example which illustrates how a share price can develop over time, moving between the various short term technical ratings. Friday 22 March 2024, 06h30 | Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps, as of Wednesday's close. Friday 22 March 2024, 06h30  | JSE Relative Sector Ratings, as of Wednesday's close (Sector Rating Relative To The Top 40 Index) Friday 22 March 2024, 06h30  | JSE Relative Sector Status and Change, as of Wednesday’s close (Sector Rating Change Relative To The Top 40 Index) Friday 22 March 2024, 06h30 | FSR Firstrand | Two factors which point to the possibility of a potential bullish reversal on the share: (1) Positive divergence as per the 14-day RSI i.e the share is printing a lower low while the Relative Strength Index is printing a higher low. This divergence is often a precursor to a bullish reversal. (2) The share has printed an inverse hammer formation. While the candle formation bearish in nature, you will often find it near the tail end of a downward trend. The key is the following session’s candle formation, which may signal that the downward trend is nearing it’s end temporarily and that the potential for a rebound is likely. Friday 22 March 2024, 06h30 | SPP Spar Group | Analyzing the Tactical Trading Guide, I came across this very rare reading on the share…see below. I also added the chart which I published two weeks ago (07 March) which highlights the potential price path…look for candle confirmation on the 1H, 2H4H charts as well. Friday 22 March 2024, 06h30 | GLN Glencore | Potential Price Path (Near Term Friday 22 March 2024, 06h30 | WHL Woolworths | The circles (buy zone) at the bottom is unchanged from late January when I highlighted a range of interest for short term re-accumulation. The share drifted sideways for a while, then lower and in recent days, became oversold. Wednesday’s candle was a positive one, and probably the best candle since mid-February. I don’t think it surges higher from here as the recent fundamental disappointed the market however, for short term/active traders, the development of a short term base could offer a rebound buying opportunity. WHL Chart as of Wednesday 24 January (Pre-Market) WHL chart as of Wednesday's close. Friday 22 March 2024, 06h30 | JSE Gold Shares. Yesterday, the JSE was closed, but on Wednesday morning the pre-market readings via the Tactical Trading Guide was as follows. With gold continuing to gain, reaching all-time highs, there’s a strong a likelihood that the share will gain today. Both GFI and ANG’s short term reading stated that there is a possibility of a small rebound. Clients can make use of the Tactical Trading Guide and other high quality data points to gain insights into potential trading opportunities. To trade, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk today. Friday 22 March 2024, 06h30 | Richemont, Sharp Bearish Reversal On Kering’s (Poor) Market Update. The two notes below were previously published, alerting clients to the potential downside risk in Richemont. Well done if you sold the share. CFR Richemont: In addition, the Tactical Trading Guide indicated the following: “Strong upside move however momentum is slowing with sellers becoming active”. This was the reading on the day which the share made it’s peak. The original, time-stamped reading is shown below: CFR Richemont: Downside follow-though. The DAILY CHART as of Wednesday, 20 March. Friday 22 March 2024, 06h30 | Candlestick Formations form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share code (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period. Top 15 (STRONGEST) Bottom 15 (WEAKEST) Friday 22 March 2024, 06h30 | Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary on Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap): Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click here to access the data Tactical Trading Guide. 3 Trading Tips Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Resource Centre Research Disclaimer (Click Here) Research Philosophy - Click Here To Read Top Trading Tips: (1) Let The Candle Confirm (Click Here To Read) (2) Failure & Reclaim (Click here To Read) (3) Igniting Bar (Click Here To Read) Resource Centre (1) Standard Deviation Chartbook Introduction (Click Here) (2) Standard Deviation: Range of Outcomes & Traders Potential Action (Click Here) (3) Optimal Conditions For Bullish & Bearish Trading Setups (Click Here) (4) Core Trading Principles (5) Core Macro Principles Systematic Insights: Timely Trading Signals Via The Tactical Trading Guide: MTN, MNP, TBS, SBK, DSY, TKG, MTM, HAR, GFI, IMP (Click Here)

Introduction When it comes to investing in shares, it's crucial to be armed with the right tools and knowledge to make informed decisions. One of the most important metrics that investors use to assess the risk and return potential of equities is beta. Beta is a numerical value that measures the sensitivity of a share's price movements relative to changes in the broader market. We will delve into the concept of beta and explore its significance for share investors. What is Beta? Beta, often denoted as "β," is a statistical measure used in finance to quantify the volatility or systematic risk of a share compared to the overall market. The market, in this context, is typically represented by an index, such as the Top 40 index. The beta value indicates how much a share's price is expected to move concerning the market's movements. It helps investors understand how closely the share's performance is tied to the market's fluctuations. Interpreting Beta Values β = 1: If a share has a beta of 1, it moves in perfect correlation with the market. Its price tends to rise or fall by the same percentage as the market index. Such shares are considered market-neutral in terms of volatility. β < 1: A share with a beta below 1 is less volatile than the market. In other words, it is expected to have smaller price swings than the overall market. These shares are often referred to as defensive equities and are perceived to offer a more stable investment option. β > 1: A share with a beta above 1 is more volatile than the market. It tends to experience larger price movements, both upward and downward, compared to the market index. These shares are considered aggressive or growth-oriented investments. Risk and Return Relationship Beta plays a crucial role in determining the risk and return profile of a share. Typically, higher beta shares offer the potential for greater returns but also come with higher risk. Conversely, lower beta shares may have more modest returns but tend to be less risky and more stable during market downturns. For example, if Share A has a beta of 1.5, and the market (represented by an index) increases by 10%, Share A might be expected to rise by 15% (1.5 times the market return). Conversely, if the market falls by 10%, Share A could be anticipated to decline by 15%. How to Use Beta in Investment Decisions Diversification: Beta can help investors build a diversified portfolio. By combining shares with different beta values, investors can offset the risk of high-beta shares with the stability of low-beta shares. Risk Management: Beta assists in assessing the level of risk an investor is willing to undertake. Conservative investors might opt for low-beta shares, while those seeking higher returns might favour high-beta shares. Market Timing: Understanding beta can help investors make better decisions about when to buy or sell a share. During a bullish market, high-beta shares may outperform, while during a bearish market, low-beta shares may hold up better. Limitations of Beta While beta is a valuable metric, it does have some limitations: Historical Data: Beta is based on historical price movements, and the past may not necessarily predict future performance accurately. Market Conditions: Beta assumes that market conditions will remain constant, which is often not the case. Single-factor Metric: Beta considers only market-related risk and does not account for other factors like company-specific events or changes in industry dynamics. Conclusion Beta is a useful tool for investors to gauge the volatility and risk associated with a particular share relative to the overall market. It aids in constructing a well-balanced portfolio and managing risk according to individual investment goals and risk tolerance. However, beta should not be the sole factor in investment decisions, as it's essential to consider other aspects of a company's fundamentals and the broader economic environment to make well-informed investment choices. As with any investment analysis, it's prudent to conduct thorough research. Top 40 share beta and selected markets: The heatmap displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index alongside selected major markets. This dynamic heatmap is updated daily, providing valuable insights. For added convenience, you can download the corresponding data as an Excel file. Stay informed of the latest trends and changes in the market through this user-friendly visualisation. Download the Excel file here:

Introduction In the world of share trading, understanding correlation is vital for making informed investment decisions and managing risk effectively. Correlation plays a crucial role in assessing how different shares or assets move in relation to each other, providing insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and potential investment opportunities. We will explore the concept of correlation in share trading, its importance, and how traders and investors can leverage this knowledge to improve their strategies. What is Correlation in Share Trading? In share trading, correlation refers to the statistical relationship between the price movements of two or more shares or assets. When two shares have a positive correlation, they tend to move in the same direction – when one share's price increases, the other share's price also increases. On the other hand, a negative correlation indicates that two shares tend to move in opposite directions – when one share's price increases, the other share's price decreases. Finally, if two shares have a correlation close to zero, it suggests that their price movements are not significantly related. Measuring Correlation in Share Trading The most common method of measuring correlation between two shares is by using the Pearson correlation coefficient, just like in general statistics. The correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to 1, with the same interpretation as before: r = 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, where the two shares move in complete harmony. r = -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, where the two shares move in opposite directions. r ≈ 0 indicates little to no correlation, suggesting that the two shares have independent price movements. Importance of Correlation in Share Trading Understanding the correlation between different shares is crucial for several reasons: Diversification: Correlation helps traders identify assets that have low or negative correlations with each other. Diversifying a portfolio with assets that are not highly correlated can help reduce overall risk. When some assets decrease in value, others might increase, which can mitigate losses. Risk Management: High correlations among shares can increase the overall risk in a portfolio. If all shares in a portfolio are positively correlated, they are more likely to experience simultaneous declines during market downturns. By knowing the correlation between holdings, traders can optimise their portfolios to manage risk more effectively. Identifying Investment Opportunities: Traders can use correlation analysis to identify potential investment opportunities. For example, if they notice a positive correlation between two shares, they might consider one as a proxy for the other. If the correlation is negative, they may see a hedging opportunity to protect against price declines. Sector Analysis: Correlation analysis can help traders understand the broader movements within specific sectors or industries. For example, in a technology-heavy sector, many shares might be positively correlated, and understanding this can influence investment decisions within that sector. Limitations of Correlation in Share Trading While correlation is a valuable tool, it has its limitations: Changing Market Conditions: Correlations between shares can change over time due to shifts in market dynamics, economic conditions, or company-specific events. Traders need to monitor correlations regularly and be prepared for them to evolve. Limited to Linear Relationships: Correlation measures linear relationships between variables. Some shares may have non-linear relationships, making it important to consider other forms of analysis alongside correlation. Causation Concerns: As always, it's essential to remember that correlation does not imply causation. Just because two shares are correlated does not necessarily mean that one share causes the price movement of the other. Conclusion In share trading, understanding correlation is a powerful tool for making informed decisions, managing risk, and optimising investment portfolios. By analysing the relationship between different shares, traders can diversify their portfolios effectively, identify hedging opportunities, and navigate changing market conditions more intelligently. However, correlation should always be used in combination with other forms of analysis, and traders must be cautious about drawing causal conclusions solely based on correlation. With a solid understanding of correlation, traders can navigate the dynamic world of share trading with greater confidence and success. Top 40 share correlation and selected markets The heatmap displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index alongside selected major markets. This dynamic heatmap is updated daily, providing valuable insights. For added convenience, you can download the corresponding data as an Excel file. Stay informed of the latest trends and changes in the market through this user-friendly visualisation. Download the Excel file here:

Introduction In the world of equity market analysis, traders and investors often seek to identify promising investment opportunities by evaluating the performance of various shares. One valuable tool that aids in this analysis is the Relative Rotational Graph (RRG). RRG is a graphical representation that helps investors understand the relative strength and momentum of different shares within a given market or sector. What is a Relative Rotational Graph (RRG)? A Relative Rotational Graph is a visual representation of the relative performance of shares in comparison to a benchmark index or a specific group of shares. The graph plots individual shares as data points and illustrates their movement over time, relative to the benchmark. The positioning of each share on the graph provides crucial insights into its relative strength, momentum, and potential investment opportunities. How RRG Works: The Four Quadrants The RRG chart is divided into four quadrants, each representing different stages of relative performance: Leading (Leading Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are exhibiting strong relative strength and positive momentum compared to the benchmark. They are outperforming the broader market or sector and are considered leaders in terms of price performance. These shares are regarded as potential Profit takes or Holds candidates. Weakening (Weakening Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are experiencing a decline in relative strength compared to the benchmark. While they might still be in an uptrend, their momentum is slowing down, and they may be losing some of their leadership positions. These shares are classified as potential Deteriorating candidates or short-selling. Lagging (Lagging Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are underperforming the benchmark. They are experiencing weak relative strength and may be struggling compared to other shares or the broader market. These shares are classified as potential Avoid candidates. Improving (Improving Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are showing signs of improvement in relative strength, indicating that they are gaining momentum and starting to outperform the benchmark. These shares are considered as potential Buy candidates. Interpreting RRG for Investment Insights When analysing a Relative Rotational Graph, traders and investors can draw several meaningful conclusions: Identifying Leaders and Laggards: RRG helps investors quickly identify which shares are leading the market's upward trends and which are lagging behind. Leading shares in the Leading Quadrant might be attractive investment candidates, while those in the Lagging Quadrant could warrant closer examination to understand potential weaknesses. Spotting Trend Reversals: A changing position of a share on the RRG can signal a potential trend reversal. For example, a share moving from the Weakening Quadrant to the Improving Quadrant may indicate a shift in momentum and an upcoming upward trend. Diversification Insights: RRG can assist in portfolio diversification by highlighting shares that exhibit a low correlation with the benchmark. Adding shares with diverse movement patterns can help reduce overall portfolio risk. Monitoring Sector Rotations: RRG is especially useful for sector rotation strategies, where investors rotate their investments based on the relative strength of sectors. It helps identify which sectors are currently leading or lagging in the market. Limitations of RRG While RRG is a valuable tool, it is essential to recognize its limitations: Historical Performance: RRG is based on past price data and may not always predict future movements accurately. Not a Standalone Indicator: RRG should be used in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools for comprehensive decision-making. Volatility Impact: Highly volatile shares may exhibit erratic movements on the RRG, making interpretation challenging. Conclusion Relative Rotational Graphs provide traders and investors with a powerful visual representation of the relative performance of shares compared to a benchmark index or a group of shares. By understanding the quadrants and interpreting the movements of individual shares, investors can gain valuable insights into market trends, identify potential investment opportunities, and optimise their portfolio allocations. As with any investment analysis tool, it should be used alongside other methods and within the context of a well-thought-out investment strategy. JSE All Share constituent RRG chart: The updated RRG chart displayed below compares the individual constituents of the JSE All Share index against the index itself. This chart undergoes daily updates, and to enhance clarity, various colour backgrounds are utilised for ease of reference. Leading (Leading Quadrant): Green background. These shares are regarded as potential Profit takes or Hold candidates. Weakening (Weakening Quadrant): Yellow background. These shares are classified as potential Deteriorating candidates or short-selling. Lagging (Lagging Quadrant): Red background. These shares are classified as potential Avoid candidates. Improving (Improving Quadrant): Blue background. These shares are considered potential Buy candidates. Access and download the annotated file from this link.

The market overview serves as a comprehensive snapshot of the financial markets, providing a summary of various asset classes, sectors, and indices. Its primary purpose is to showcase the performance of different financial instruments over a specific period.

Introduction: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a critical technical indicator used by traders and investors to assess the performance of an equity relative to the broader market or its industry peers. By understanding RPS and incorporating it into their investment strategies, individuals can gain valuable insights into an equity's potential for future price movement. We will delve into the concept of RPS, how it is calculated, and its significance in share trading. What is Relative Price Strength (RPS)? Relative Price Strength, also known as Relative Strength, is a momentum-based metric that evaluates an equity's performance relative to a benchmark index or a group of peers. It is used to identify equities that have outperformed or underperformed in their market or sector over a specified period. RPS Calculation: To calculate RPS, we compare the price performance of a particular share to the performance of a designated benchmark index or a group of shares. The RPS calculation typically involves comparing the price change over a specific time frame, depending on the preference of the trader or investor. The formula for calculating RPS is as follows: RPS = (Share's Price at date x / Share's Price at date y) / (Benchmark's Price at date x / Benchmark's Price at date y) date x = most recent price of the share or benchmark date y = price of the share or benchmark x periods ago Understanding RPS Values: The RPS value is represented as a ratio, and it indicates the stock's relative strength compared to the benchmark or peer group. A value above 1 suggests that the share has outperformed the benchmark or peers, while a value below 1 indicates underperformance. Significance of RPS in Share Trading: Identifying Strong Performers: RPS helps traders and investors identify shares that have demonstrated significant price strength compared to the overall market or their sector. These shares are often considered strong performers and may continue to exhibit positive price movement. Trend Confirmation: RPS can help confirm the prevailing trends in the market or sector. Shares with high RPS values are more likely to be in uptrends, while those with low RPS values might be in downtrends. Share Selection: Traders can use RPS to filter and prioritise their share selection process. A higher RPS value could make a share more appealing for trading or investment opportunities. Divergence Detection: RPS can also help identify potential divergences between a share and the broader market or sector. Divergences occur when an equity's price moves in the opposite direction to its RPS, which might signal a potential trend reversal or correction. Limitations of RPS: While RPS can be a valuable tool for assessing relative performance, it has some limitations that traders and investors should be aware of: Short-Term Focus: RPS is primarily a short to medium-term indicator. It might not accurately reflect a share's long-term potential or fundamental strength. Benchmark Selection: The choice of benchmark or peer group can significantly impact the RPS calculation. Different benchmarks can lead to different RPS values for the same share. Conclusion: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a valuable technical indicator that provides insights into an equity's relative performance compared to a benchmark index or its peers. By understanding RPS, traders and investors can make more informed decisions, identify strong performers, and validate existing trends in the market or sector. However, like any single metric, RPS should be used in conjunction with other indicators and fundamental analysis to make well-rounded investment decisions. JSE All Share headline indices RPS: In the financial markets, certain headline indices have showcased remarkable outperformance, suggesting a notable influx of capital. This surge in capital inflow signals growing trader and investor confidence and interest in these headline indices. Whereas traders and investors seem to be reallocating their investments away from headline indices where there is an outflow of capital. Capital Inflow headline indices (in ranking order): 1. Resources 2. Industrials Capital outflow headline indices (in ranking order): 1. Financials JSE All Share share RPS: Understanding the performance of individual shares in comparison to the broader market is crucial for traders and investors seeking to capitalise on market trends. The table below highlights the top 20 and bottom 20 shares based on RPS, with a lookback period of the last 10 days, indicated by their ranking changes since the previous update. The table is updated daily. The Top 20 RPS Leaders: These are the shares that have exhibited the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the past 10 days. The Bottom 20 RPS Laggards: These shares have shown the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period. JSE All Share sector RPS: In this analysis, we will examine the top 10 and bottom 10 sectors based on RPS, considering the lookback period of the last 10 days. The table is also updated daily. The Top 10 RPS Leading Sectors These sectors have demonstrated the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index during the 10-day lookback period. The Bottom 10 RPS Lagging Sectors Conversely, these sectors have exhibited the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period.

What is a Heatmap? A heatmap is a graphical representation of data where individual shares are represented as colours. In this context, the heatmap below shows the top 60 JSE (Johannesburg Stock Exchange) shares by value traded and their percentage daily change. Share Tickers: Each block or cell in the heatmap is labelled with a ticker symbol, representing a particular share on the JSE. For example, "IMP" or "NPN" are tickers for specific companies listed on the JSE. Axes: The x-axis depicts the "Percentage Change", spanning from negative to positive values. It reflects the day-to-day fluctuations in a share's price, with positive values signifying an uptick in share price value and negative ones denoting a decline. Block size: The size of each block signifies the "Value Traded" for a particular share in a day. "Value Traded" denotes the total monetary amount of a specific share exchanged on the equity market within a given day. It is determined by multiplying the volume of shares traded with their average trading price for that day. Formula: Value Traded = Number of Shares Traded × Average Trading Price of the Share This metric is pivotal as it sheds light on the liquidity and activity surrounding a specific share. A higher value traded typically signifies increased interest and engagement with that share for a multitude of reasons. Conversely, a lower value traded might suggest diminished interest or activity in that particular share. How to Use the Heatmap: When analysing equity markets, both the "value traded" and the direction of the share price movement (percentage change) can provide critical insights into the sentiment and behaviour of traders and investors. High Trading Volume with Rising Share Price (larger block sizes and darker shading of green): Interpretation: This typically indicates a strong buying interest in the share. A higher volume of shares being traded, combined with an upward movement in price, suggests that the demand for the share is outstripping supply. This can be due to positive news about the company, better-than-expected earnings reports, or any other factor that boosts traders' and investors' confidence in the share's future performance. Possible Implications: The share may be in a bullish phase. This scenario might attract more market participants who want to capitalise on the upward trend, further pushing the price up, at least in the short term. However, traders and investors need to be cautious about potential overvaluations. High Trading Volume with Declining Share Price (larger block sizes and darker shading of red): Interpretation: This indicates strong selling pressure. Even though a large volume of shares is being traded, the fact that the price is declining suggests that there is more supply than demand for the share. Reasons can include negative news about the company, disappointing earnings reports, or broader negative market or sector trends. Possible Implications: The share might be in a bearish phase, signalling a potential downtrend. This can cause panic selling among market participants, which might further depress the share price. On the other hand, some market participants might see this as an opportunity to buy the share at a discounted price, anticipating a future rebound. High Trading Volume with Minimal Price Fluctuation (larger block sizes with a beige shading): Interpretation: When there is a large value traded with minimal share price movement, it suggests that there is equilibrium between buyers and sellers: A high trading volume with little change in price indicates that there is a balance between buying and selling pressure. For every trader or investor eager to sell, there is someone equally willing to buy at nearly the same price. Possible Implications: The share could be in a consolidation phase, where it is finding a stable price range after a period of significant upward or downward movement. This phase can often precede a breakout in either direction, depending on subsequent news or market sentiment. The share might be trading near a strong support (a price level where a share tends to find buying interest) or resistance level (a price level where selling interest tends to surface). Even with high trading volumes, the share might struggle to break these levels, leading to minimal price movement. Low Trading Volume with Significant Price Swing (Either Direction) (small block sizes with either a darker shading of green or red): Interpretation: When there is a small value traded combined with significant share price movement either upwards or downwards, the share might not be highly liquid, meaning there are not many shares available for trading. In such cases, even small buy or sell orders can cause disproportionate price movements. Possible Implications: Shares that are thinly traded or have low trading volumes can be more volatile, leading to larger price swings with fewer shares being exchanged. The share might be highly sensitive to specific news or events. Even if only a few traders and investors react to the news, it can cause a significant price movement due to the low volume of trades. Low Trading Volume with Minimal Price Fluctuations (small block sizes with a beige shading): Interpretation: There might be a general consensus about the share's value among the few participants, leading to little price movement. In the absence of any significant news or events related to the company or its industry, traders and investors might have no strong incentive to buy or sell, resulting in low trading volume and stable prices. Possible Implications: Market participants could be on the sidelines, waiting for a clear indication or event that might dictate the share's future direction. Until such an event occurs, there may be limited trading activity and minimal price change. The nearly unchanged price with low volume might indicate that the market is indecisive about that particular share at the moment, with no strong bullish or bearish sentiment driving it. Conclusion: When the bulk of the blocks are sizable and green, it signifies a largely upbeat market day, underscored by heightened trading activity. These shares could be potential candidates for a long position. On the other hand, if a majority of blocks are red and indicate robust trading, the market seems to have tilted towards a negative trend, suggesting possible short-sell opportunities. For shares represented by beige blocks, whether large or small, it might be prudent to exercise caution or steer clear In all the scenarios presented, it is crucial to consider other market indicators and conduct a comprehensive analysis before making investment decisions. External factors, such as macroeconomic conditions, industry trends, and geopolitical events, can also influence share price movements and trading volumes.

What is a Heatmap? This heatmap displays value trader data regarding the top 60 JSE (Johannesburg Stock Exchange) shares. It depicts how their last value traded compares to their average daily value traded over the last 20 days. Share Tickers: Each block or cell in the heatmap is labelled with a ticker symbol, representing a particular share on the JSE. For example, "IMP" or "NPN" are tickers for specific companies listed o the JSE. Axes: The x-axis represents the "Percentage of Average Value Traded", ranging from zero to positive percentages. It illustrates the daily variations in a share's trading volume (value traded), where increased positive values indicate an increase in the value of shares traded. Block size: The size of each block signifies the "Value Traded" for a particular share in a day, compared to its 20-day value traded, expressed as a percentage. The greater the block size, the more significant the increase in value traded. Furthermore, blocks with a reddish hue indicate that the value traded is associated with a volume spike. In essence, a volume spike refers to a sudden and notable increase in the number of shares traded in a short period, often signalling heightened traders and investor interest or activity in that particular share. "Value Traded" denotes the total monetary amount of a specific share exchanged on the equity market within a given day. It is determined by multiplying the volume of shares traded with their average trading price for that day. Formula: Value Traded = Number of Shares Traded × Average Trading Price of the Share Average Value Traded Per Share, is the average of the daily traded values for the last 20 trading sessions. It provides a more stable measure to compare against a single day's value traded. Formula: Percentage of average value traded = Value traded for one day ÷ 20-Day Average Value Traded How to Use the Heatmap: The presence of various colors from blue to red suggests that there's a diverse trading behavior among the top 60 JSE shares. Some share are experiencing a surge in trading activity, while others are seeing less than usual. The shares in the red zone might be experiencing significant events, news, or developments leading to heightened trader and investor interest, resulting in higher trading volumes. Conversely, the shares in the blue zone could be in a consolidation phase, or there might not be any significant news driving the share, leading to decreased interest and trading activity. Interpretation Liquidity Indicator A higher average traded value suggests that the share is more liquid, meaning it can be bought or sold in larger quantities without causing significant price movements. This can be beneficial for large institutional investors who need to make big trades without impacting the price too much. Trader and Investor Interest A sudden spike in the daily value traded compared to the 20-day average can indicate heightened trader and investor interest, either due to recent news, earnings announcements, or other market events. Value Traded Per Day > 20-Day Average (large red blocks): When the value traded on a particular day is significantly higher than the 20-day average, it could signify increased buying/selling activity. This could be due to recent positive/negative news, earnings beats/misses, or sector-specific developments. Such spikes warrant further investigation into why traders and investors are showing increased interest. Value Traded Per Day < 20-Day Average (large blue blocks): If the value traded on a particular day is much lower than the 20-day average, it might indicate decreased interest or a potential consolidation phase. In such cases, traders and investors might be in a "wait and watch" mode, or there might not be any significant news driving the share. Consistency (small red and blue blocks) If the daily traded value remains consistently close to the 20-day average, it suggests stability in the share's trading patterns. However, small red blocks signify that traded values for these shares are also higher than their respective averages. Conclusion This heatmap provides a visual snapshot of the trading activity of the top 60 JSE shares relative to their average daily values. Traders and investors can use such visualisations to quickly identify shares with abnormal trading volumes, which might warrant further investigation or present potential trading opportunities. In all the scenarios presented, it is crucial to consider other market indicators and conduct a comprehensive analysis before making investment decisions. External factors, such as macroeconomic conditions, industry trends, and geopolitical events, can also influence share price movements and trading volumes.

Introduction: This graph is a scatter plot presenting volume analysis for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The horizontal axis (x-axis) represents the "Volume multiple of the last 200 trading days", indicating how much the volume of the day’s trading compares to the average of the last 200 days. A value of 1 would mean the volume is equal to the 200-day average, values greater than 1 mean more than average volume, and values less than 1 mean less than average volume. The vertical axis (y-axis) shows the "Percentage daily change", which represents the percentage change in the share price compared to the previous day. Positive values indicate an increase in share price, while negative values indicate a decrease. The points on the graph are labelled with ticker symbols representing different companies. Points above the horizontal axis represent shares that have increased in price, and points below it represent shares that have decreased in price. Similarly, points to the right of the vertical axis represent shares with higher trading volumes than the average, and points to the left represent shares with lower-than-average trading volumes. Interpretation: Shares in the upper right quadrant (green dots) could be considered strong performers as they are experiencing both a high volume of trading and an increase in price. This could indicate positive investor sentiment and possibly a good buying opportunity if the momentum is expected to continue. Shares in the lower right quadrant (red dots) might be experiencing a high volume of trades but are decreasing in price. This could signal a selling pressure or negative sentiment, and investors might want to investigate further before making a decision, as they could represent either a potential for buying at a lower price (if the fundamentals are solid) or a risk if the price continues to decline. Shares in the lower left quadrant (red dots) are seeing both lower volumes and a decrease in price, which could be a sign of weak investor interest or a negative outlook, suggesting caution. Shares in the upper left quadrant (green dots) are experiencing an increase in price despite trading at lower volumes, which could indicate undervalued opportunities but also might suggest lower confidence among investors, thus these would require careful analysis. Before making any investment decisions, it is important to consider other factors beyond just the volume and price change. These can include fundamental analysis of the company's financial health, news, industry trends, and overall market conditions. Additionally, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Always conduct thorough research.

S&P 500 PIVOT POINTS: RALLY OR CORRECTION AHEAD? Preferred Analysis: The chart presents a clear narrative, elucidating the S&P 500 Index's current trajectory. We are at a juncture where the index is testing a significant resistance cluster. Adding to this critical moment is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is signalling an overbought condition alongside a discernible divergence at line D. This suggests that we should be on the lookout for potential signs of a trend reversal. Alternative Perspective: On the bullish side, breaching the resistance marked as R* could unleash further upward potential, targeting the upper threshold at T2. A successful break above R* would underscore the strength of the bullish forces at play, possibly challenging the upper resistance zones. Key Levels to Monitor: The resistance at R* and support at S* are pivotal markers for the index's path forward. These levels serve as key indicators for market sentiment and trend strength. A definitive move past S1 would validate the bearish WXY pattern, possibly heralding a more substantial pullback or correction. Conviction Outlook: The confidence in this technical analysis ranges from medium to high. This is based on the well-defined technical indicators and the index’s historical response to such patterns. It's important to proceed with caution, however, as market conditions can be influenced by variables beyond the scope of technical analysis.

To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Good day. Thank you for taking the time to visit this page. My overall goal is to provide you with leading, high quality information by conveying my best interpretation of the most relevant market information in order for you, as a client to: (1) understand the potential opportunities and manage the potential risks and (2) make informed decisions around trading opportunities. To read my full research philosophy, please visit the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/research-philosophy. To continue reading today’s research, please scroll down. 06h30 | JSE Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps, as of yesterday’s close. Candlestick Formations form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share code (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period. 06h30 | JSE Relative Sector Regimes, as of yesterday afternoon. Top 40, Technology, Diversified Miners, Banks, Insurers Gold Miners, Platinum Miners, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Pharmaceuticals & Hospitals Coal Miners, Telecoms, Paper & Pulp, Chemicals, Luxury Goods, USD/ZAR Thursday, 14 March 2024, 06h30 | CFR Richemont | Medium Term = High bullish momentum/approaching overbought + approaching unfilled gap. Also note, relative to the Top 40 Index, the share is trading 19% above it’s 200-day SMA. There is however a negative divergence as the previous relative high saw the share trading 32% above it’s 200-day SMA. 06h30 | UPDATE: It looks like, on a relative basis, the market has started to switch out of Financials and into Resources. Satrix Resources Has Since Outperformed Satrix Financials By 10.9% since the note (+chart) below on Monday 26-February. 06h30 | IMP Impala Platinum has moved faster than I expected, with the price nearly at the R78 target. As highlighted to you on Friday morning (see original comment and chart below), the yellow candles was my expected/potential price path (circled area). Well done to all managed to buy in before the big reversal. Is the share still a buy here? Well, it depends on your time horizon. After a +33% change over 1 week, the data states the following: SHORT TERM (1 to 10 days): “Aggressive buying but do not chase (I.e. do not buy after a massive move). Look for overshoot or failure to hold the prior session highs to short/sell back to the 8-EMA”. MEDIUM TERM (2 to 4 weeks): “Strong candle structure (bullish attempt) following a generally weaker trend”. LONG TERM (5 to 8 weeks): “After a general downward trend, some buyers are showing interest”. See the TTG extract below (as of yesterday's close). Sticking with Impala Platinum, the data also started giving a buy signal end of day Monday 04 March when it was down close to 8%. Below is the current chart with the time-stamped reading of the signal. Note the reading: “The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position”. 06h30 | Copper Futures - Now trading above $4.00, with very strong price action. Strong reversal from the previous view in November which considered the falling wedge technical formation as well as technical support at $3.55. 06h30 | Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary on Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap): Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Resource Centre Research Disclaimer (Click Here) Research Philosophy - Click Here To Read Top Trading Tips: (1) Let The Candle Confirm (Click Here To Read) (2) Failure & Reclaim (Click here To Read) (3) Igniting Bar (Click Here To Read) Resource Centre (1) Standard Deviation Chartbook Introduction (Click Here) (2) Standard Deviation: Range of Outcomes & Traders Potential Action (Click Here) (3) Optimal Conditions For Bullish & Bearish Trading Setups (Click Here) (4) Core Trading Principles (5) Core Macro Principles Systematic Insights: Timely Trading Signals Via The Tactical Trading Guide: MTN, MNP, TBS, SBK, DSY, TKG, MTM, HAR, GFI, IMP (Click Here)