Search this site

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Banking & Financial Services The major domestic banking institutions are undergoing a sharp tactical shakeout within an otherwise constructive secular framework. Standard Bank (SBK), FirstRand (FSR), Capitec (CPI), and Nedbank (NED) all maintain resilient Monthly Core Baselines, reflecting stable capital adequacy and structural earnings power. However, aggressive Daily selling pressure has pushed their Base Term and Mid Term momentum indicators into oversold thresholds. This dynamic sets up attractive tactical pullback buy zones near primary structural support, provided local macroeconomic headwinds do not accelerate further. Life & Non-Life Insurance Momentum across the insurance sector is distinctly split between defensive underwriting strength and investment-linked cyclical drag. Discovery (DSY) and OUTsurance (OUT) stand out as primary momentum leaders, with their Daily and Weekly trends validating strong continuation signals and commanding steady capital inflows. In contrast, traditional asset-management-heavy insurers and wealth administrators, such as Sanlam (SLM) and Old Mutual (OMU), are experiencing mixed or weakening short-term momentum as broader domestic market volatility dampens institutional asset flows. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Sector Analysis Diversified Miners The diversified mining complex—anchored by Anglo American (AGL) and BHP Group (BHG)—is caught in a tactical tug-of-war. While multi-year Monthly Core Baselines remain structurally sound and supportive of a long-term resource thesis, short-term momentum has deteriorated markedly. Daily Base Term and Mid Term indicators are hovering in weak tiers as soft industrial commodity demand weighs on near-term price realization. Glencore (GLN) and South32 (S32) show slightly firmer multi-frame stability, yet the broader basket is currently confined to a buy-on-pullback regime rather than an aggressive momentum breakout. Precious Metals & PGMs This sector exhibits an internal split between gold producers and platinum group metals (PGM) miners. Gold miners—such as Harmony Gold (HAR), Gold Fields (GFI), and AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)—command robust, rising Monthly Secular Cycles, though recent daily pullbacks have flushed short-term momentum down into oversold bands, presenting textbook dip-buying entries within macro uptrends. Conversely, PGM producers (IMP, NPH, SSW, VAL) continue to struggle with lower structural trends. While tactical bounces occur, their fast indicators lack sustained institutional follow-through, leaving them vulnerable to extended consolidation until underlying metal baskets establish a durable floor. Energy & Chemicals The energy and coal complex remains the most aggressively overbought corner of the domestic equity market. Sasol (SOL) and Thungela Resources (TGA) have sustained parabolic runs, pushing their Daily Short Term and Weekly Tactical momentum indicators to maximum statistical boundaries. These parabolic structures now reflect trend exhaustion, signaling that the risk-to-reward ratio has turned asymmetric to the downside and triggering tight exit zones. Meanwhile, Exxaro (EXX) has begun to ease off its multi-timeframe extremes, rotating into a broader consolidation range as short-term froth subsides. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Severe Downside Skew in Advance-Decline Breadth: Across the 138 evaluated counters, over 55% are actively trapped in "Sell Continuation" or multi-timeframe bearish regimes, illustrating that index-level resilience is being masked by a handful of mega-caps. High Density of Multi-Timeframe Capitulation: Approximately 22% of the universe is flashing simultaneous oversold conditions across Daily, Weekly, and Monthly cycles, indicating widespread macro-liquidation across local cyclical equities. Selective Bullish Participation (Sub-15%): Pure "Buy Continuation" setups represent less than 15% of the overall constituent base, concentrated strictly in select defensive retail (SHP), global infrastructure (EMI, VOD), and non-cyclical food services (BID). Retail Sector Internal Dispersion: Retail breadth has fractured completely. High-volume food retail (SHP) trades at new cyclical momentum highs, whereas pharmacy, general merchandise, and apparel retail (DCP, CLS, WHL, TRU) sit at total technical washout extremes. Banking Sector Multi-Frame Decoupling: South African banks show strong structural divergence. While their Monthly Core Baselines are elevated in bullish bands, 100% of the major banking institutions (ABG, FSR, NED, SBK, CPI) have seen their Daily indicators collapse into weak or oversold territory. Resources Momentum Divergence: Breadth within basic materials is sharply bifurcated. Energy and thermal coal (SOL, TGA) command the top percentile of momentum strength, while PGM and iron ore counters (KIO, IMP, SSW) struggle near the lower decile of multi-month participation. Real Estate Sector Dispersion: The REIT sector displays heavy internal rotation. Offshore and logistics-focused property funds (EMI, ATT) maintain constructive Weekly trends, while domestic retail and commercial property funds (GRT, RDF, HYP) drag along historical lows. Precious Metals Sector Health: Gold counters continue to preserve a 100% positive structural rating on Monthly horizons, confirming that current weakness is confined entirely to Daily tactical profit-taking rather than broader trend liquidation. Small-to-Mid Cap Liquidity Drain: Breadth deterioration is far more pronounced outside the Top 40 benchmark. Mid-cap industrial, consumer, and tech names (WBC, RBX, RLO, AFE) are predominantly lodged in structural downtrends with minimal institutional volume support. Macro Regime Summary: The collective breadth profile reflects late-stage defensive rotation. Capital is selectively shielding inside liquid rand hedges and non-discretionary staples, while aggressively dumping broad domestic cyclicals. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. A Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) highlights the relative strength and momentum of multiple assets against a common benchmark, plotting them on a single visual grid. By tracking the rotational path of these assets, traders can see exactly which sectors, stocks, or asset classes are leading, lagging, or transitioning at any given time. How It Helps Traders Visualizing Sector Rotation: Traders can watch capital flow out of one sector (Weakening) and into another (Improving) before the shift becomes obvious on standard price charts. Pairs Trading: By identifying one asset entering the "Leading" quadrant and another plunging into "Lagging," traders can structure long/short pairs trades with a clear statistical divergence. Momentum Velocity: The "tails" trailing behind each asset on an RRG show trajectory and speed. Longer, widely spaced dots on a tail indicate rapid, violent momentum shifts, while tightly clustered dots suggest consolidation. Macro Condensation: Instead of flipping through dozens of isolated price charts and moving averages, an RRG condenses the entire market's relative performance into a single, actionable snapshot. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. A Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) highlights the relative strength and momentum of multiple assets against a common benchmark, plotting them on a single visual grid. By tracking the rotational path of these assets, traders can see exactly which sectors, stocks, or asset classes are leading, lagging, or transitioning at any given time. How It Helps Traders Visualizing Sector Rotation: Traders can watch capital flow out of one sector (Weakening) and into another (Improving) before the shift becomes obvious on standard price charts. Pairs Trading: By identifying one asset entering the "Leading" quadrant and another plunging into "Lagging," traders can structure long/short pairs trades with a clear statistical divergence. Momentum Velocity: The "tails" trailing behind each asset on an RRG show trajectory and speed. Longer, widely spaced dots on a tail indicate rapid, violent momentum shifts, while tightly clustered dots suggest consolidation. Macro Condensation: Instead of flipping through dozens of isolated price charts and moving averages, an RRG condenses the entire market's relative performance into a single, actionable snapshot. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Sharp, bullish reversal since our 26 August note. Original Note Here > https://www.unum.capital/post/usdzar2608 Previous Post (Friday 11 September): U.S. Dollar / South African Rand Analysis + Chart as of: Friday, 11 September at 10h07. The pair is attempting a bullish reversal, having formed a double bottom technical formation (2x low ~R15.90). The bullish reversal is also in line with the price action model which, on 26 August, stated that the pair had become attractive for a buy/long position. For now sellers (i.e. buyers of the Rand) are controlling the R16.17 to R16.20 range while a strong break above this level is would suggest that USD bulls are starting to take control. Above this level, the 75-day EMA at ~R16.26 could provide temporary resistance. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital [Legends For Own Use🔒🎥💡🟥🟩🟧 🖥️ ⭐⭐⭐☆☆]

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. British American Tobacco Plc Previous Post (04 September): British American Tobacco Execute Your Trades Via The Unum Capital Trading Desk: Our research is often consumed by traders that execute our ideas via the trading desk of a competing service provider. This means that our screen time and research efforts ultimately benefits our our competitors, who capture the associated brokerage fees. For this reason, some of our discretionary research insights are regarded as premium and available only to active trading clients. If you have been reading our research but use another trading services provider/broker to execute the trades, why not consider moving you trading account to Unum Capital thereby routing the trades through our desk? Please Note: The price charts, as well as the analyst's price action model now form part of our PREMIUM content. Systematic View: British American Tobacco Plc Analysis as of: Thursday, 03 Sept. (after market close). Prepared For Friday 04 Sept. Analyst Rating: At or Approaching Buy Re-Entry Range Alternative View: n/a 7-Day Regime: Neutral 14-Day Trend: Rangebound Best probability sell re-entry range: 96200c to 99000c Current Price (Price at Time of Writing): 90000c Best probability buy re-entry range: 86200c to 89100c Additional Comment: Improved candle candle within a oversold to weak range. Also traded within the previously identified buy re-entry range. The original chart, sent to clients on 26 August is shown below. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify potential trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with a setup —such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. SLM currently matches setups #4 and #45. Key Levels = 8016c and 7987c (Friday and today's swing low, thus far). Holding above these areas would suggest that the ultra short term selling is waning. Intraday Stop-loss = TBD Disclosure: The commentary below was generated automatically, using an artificial intelligence tool (using my own inputs/data). The overarching tactical posture aligns with 🔵 Buy on deeper pullback — Delayed/Weakest Buy, with immediate execution mapped to 🟩 At/approaching buy/add (strictly for small, tactical long exposure). The price action model explicitly flags that the short-term reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position as the 7-day trend nears oversold limits. However, given aggressive medium-term selling and persistent multi-week weakness, full-sized capital commitment should wait for lower timeframes to stabilize and validate a confirmed reclaim of prior session lows. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Previous Post (22 February): Chemicals: Sasol + Omnia + AECI (Relative Improvement Versus All Share Index) After two failed attempts, the sector (on a relative basis vs the JSE All Share Index) is attempting to position itself above it's 200-day SMA. This represents an attempt to outperform the broader market. Note that the ratio trades well below it's 200-week which would serve as a long term target. Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Approaching a major support zone. Disclosure: The analysis below was generated automatically, using an artificial intelligence tool (using my own inputs/data). Risks to entering buy/long positions at or around current levels: The longer-term 5- to 8-week regime is characterized by active, aggressive selling. Initiating oversized exposure before lower-timeframe stabilization confirms risks absorbing continued institutional distribution. Risks to entering sell/short positions at or around current levels: With the reward-to-risk ratio already turning attractive for tactical longs across both the 1- to 10-day and 2- to 4-week periods, initiating short sales at current depressed levels carries elevated squeeze risk if a sharp counter-trend relief rally materializes. The overarching tactical posture aligns with 🔵 Buy on deeper pullback — Delayed/Weakest Buy, with immediate tactical execution mapped to 🟩 At/approaching buy/add (strictly for small, tactical long exposure). The price action model explicitly flags that the reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position across both the 1-to-10 day and 2-to-4 week windows as the 7-day trend approaches oversold levels. However, given aggressive longer-term selling over the 5- to 8-week horizon, larger directional capital should stand aside until lower timeframes structurally stabilize and confirm a durable base. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Disclosure: The analysis below was generated automatically, using an artificial intelligence tool (using my own inputs/data). Technology sits at a Long Term High Bearish/Approaching Oversold, Medium Term High Bearish/Approaching Oversold, and Short Term High Bearish/Approaching Oversold posture. The sector remains deeply structurally impaired across every measured horizon. Sustained distribution has culminated in severe underperformance, confirming a complete absence of institutional support. Diversified Miners present a Long Term Strong, Medium Term Neutral, and Short Term Weak posture. Following the peak momentum seen in late August, the sector has experienced an abrupt short-term cooldown. While the Long-Term trend retains its Strong anchor, the deterioration of Medium-Term momentum to Neutral and Short-Term momentum to Weak signals active profit-taking. Banks are showing a Long Term Neutral, Medium Term Weak, and Short Term Weak posture. After a fleeting pause in late August and early September, downside momentum has resumed. The inability to reclaim Neutral status across intermediate horizons highlights ongoing institutional distribution. Insurers currently sit at a Long Term Weak, Medium Term Weak, and Short Term High Bearish/Approaching Oversold posture. The sector has suffered renewed technical damage. The drop of Short-Term momentum into High Bearish territory reinforces the persistent multi-month downtrend. Gold Miners remain at a Long Term Strong, Medium Term Strong, and Short Term Neutral posture. Following extreme momentum readings in late August, the sector has settled into orderly consolidation. The robust Long- and Medium-Term Strong postures confirm that its overarching leadership profile remains intact. Platinum Miners exhibit a Long Term Strong, Medium Term Strong, and Short Term Strong posture. Following the precedent set by precious metals peers, Platinum Miners have completed a full structural upgrade, achieving unanimous Strong alignment across all three horizons to stand as one of the market's premier leaders. Consumer Staples hold a Long Term Weak, Medium Term Neutral, and Short Term Neutral posture. The sector remains pinned beneath long-term structural resistance. Intermediate and short-term pauses continue to reflect low-volatility drift rather than genuine accumulation. Consumer Discretionary reflects a Long Term High Bearish/Approaching Oversold, Medium Term High Bearish/Approaching Oversold, and Short Term Weak posture. The environment remains hostile for domestic cyclicals. Chronic intermediate- and long-term relative weakness continues to dominate price action. Hospitals display a Long Term Neutral, Medium Term Neutral, and Short Term Neutral posture. The sector has flattened into full consolidation. With all timeframes locking into Neutral, directionless drift characterizes the group. Coal Miners maintain a Long Term Neutral, Medium Term Strong, and Short Term High Bullish/Approaching Overbought posture. The sector has staged an aggressive momentum expansion. Successive upgrades across medium- and short-term windows highlight strong relative inflows. Telecoms maintain a Long Term Neutral, Medium Term Neutral, and Short Term Strong posture. The sector has executed a sharp mean-reversion rally. Having cleared late-August oversold conditions, Short-Term momentum has surged to Strong, lifting the Medium-Term posture back to Neutral. Paper & Pulp sits at a Long Term Weak, Medium Term Neutral, and Short Term Neutral posture. Long-term structural damage continues to overshadow intermittent counter-trend bounces, leaving the sector without definitive upside traction. Chemicals carry a Long Term Strong, Medium Term Strong, and Short Term Overbought posture. The sector has staged a massive structural turnaround. Transforming from mid-August weakness, rapid accumulation has catapulted the sector into comprehensive bullish alignment, culminating in an Overbought short-term reading. Luxury Goods show a Long Term Neutral, Medium Term Weak, and Short Term Weak posture. The sector remains on the back foot. Previous support has given way to persistent intermediate distribution, dampening relative performance. Risks to the Current Positioning Overbought Exhaustion in Leading Resources: Chemicals and Coal Miners have accelerated into Overbought and High Bullish Short-Term extremes, respectively. These rapid momentum extensions leave the groups highly vulnerable to sharp mean-reversion pullbacks if institutional inflows pause or underlying commodity tailwinds stall. Contagion from Diversified Miners: The abrupt Short-Term breakdown to a Weak posture in Diversified Miners highlights aggressive profit-taking. If this intermediate distribution bleeds into the Medium Term, the loss of momentum in a major resource heavyweight could drag down broader index resilience. Counter-Trend Fragility in Telecoms: The sudden Short-Term surge to a Strong posture in Telecoms is unfolding against a flat Neutral Medium-Term and Long-Term backdrop. This profile suggests a mean-reversion bounce rather than a genuine structural upgrade, making the sector susceptible to fading as long-term resistance is tested. Asymmetric Squeeze Risk in Laggards: Technology and Consumer Discretionary remain deeply structurally impaired, pinned at High Bearish/Oversold extremes. While the primary trend remains decisively downward, these stretched conditions elevate the risk of violent, short-covering snapbacks triggered by unforeseen macroeconomic shifts or localized stabilization. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. The period from mid-August through mid-September reveals an intensifying bifurcated market, characterized by rotation within the resource complex and acute divergence across broader cyclicals. The most defining shifts are the structural breakout in Chemicals and the bullish alignment in Platinum Miners, which have seized decisive leadership. Concurrently, Coal Miners have exhibited powerful short-term momentum acceleration, while Gold Miners consolidate recent gains. Conversely, Diversified Miners have seen their late-August short-term surge aggressively unwind into Weak momentum. Technology and Consumer Discretionary remain entrenched in severe, multi-timeframe structural breakdowns, while Financials (Banks and Insurers) face persistent distribution and renewed downside pressure. Emerging Leaders (Resources & Industrials): Platinum Miners, Chemicals (Broad Bullish Alignment), Coal Miners (Short-Term momentum surging) Major Structural Breakdowns: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Insurers Leadership Exhaustion / Mean Reversion: Diversified Miners (Short-Term breakdown to Weak), Telecoms (Sharp short-term oversold bounce) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital