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VIEW RETAINED FOR AN ONGOING CONSOLIDATION BETWEEN 18.37 AND 19.35. The expectation of a R1*/S1* medium-term consolidation is materialising. Current overlapping price action is expected to have a downward bias towards S1* to complete the final phase Y. A number of feasible consolidation alternatives could still develop within the R1*/S1* range. If S1* holds over time then a renewed bull trend (i, ii, iii, iv, v) to R2 and T1, becomes highly likely. Breaking R1* will activate the upside, while S1* is pivotal for the general bullish outcome. Target and Re-assessment Levels: Important Levels: R1* and S1* Primary Trend: R1*/S1* consolidation, followed by a bull trend to T1 Monthly Range: R1*/S1* Current Trend and Target Levels: Downside off R1* to S1* Technical Rating: Medium https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

Introduction In the world of technical analysis, traders and investors often use various tools and indicators to gain insights into market trends and potential price movements. One such tool is the Linear Regression Channel, which utilises statistical concepts like standard deviation to help identify the potential range of price action. Understanding how to interpret and use the Linear Regression Channel in conjunction with standard deviation can provide valuable information for traders to make informed decisions. What is Linear Regression Channel? The Linear Regression Channel is a technical analysis tool that plots a straight line based on the linear regression of the price data over a specific period. This line serves as the central axis of the channel, with two parallel lines drawn above and below it, representing the upper and lower ranges. The channel helps traders visualize the general direction of the trend and possible areas of support and resistance. Calculating the Linear Regression Channel involves fitting a linear regression line to the price data, usually based on the closing prices, over a defined look-back period. The resulting line represents the average or mean of the price data over that period. Understanding Standard Deviation Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion or variability of the price data around the linear regression line. In the context of a Linear Regression Channel, standard deviation helps determine the width of the channel, which indicates the potential volatility or uncertainty of price movements. When the standard deviation is high, it means the price data is spread out widely from the regression line, indicating higher volatility. Conversely, a low standard deviation suggests that the price data is closely clustered around the regression line, indicating lower volatility. Using Scoring to Assess Proximity to the Linear Regression Channel The term "scoring" in this context refers to a numerical value representing the distance of the current price from the linear regression line. This score is typically normalised to a scale between 0 and 10, with 1 indicating the lowest proximity to the regression line and 10 indicating the highest proximity. The relationship between the scoring and the Linear Regression Channel is as follows: Scoring Close to 0: When the scoring is closer to 0, it suggests that the current price is near the lower range of the Linear Regression Channel. This indicates that the market is potentially oversold, and the price may be due for a correction or bounce towards the mean or central axis of the channel. Scoring Close to 10: Conversely, when the scoring is closer to 10, it suggests that the current price is near the upper range of the Linear Regression Channel. This indicates that the market is potentially overbought, and the price may be due for a correction or a bounce back towards the mean. Interpreting Linear Regression Channel and Standard Deviation Together Combining the Linear Regression Channel and standard deviation provides a more comprehensive picture of the market's behaviour. When the standard deviation is wider, the channel broadens, indicating higher volatility. In contrast, a narrower standard deviation results in a narrower channel, suggesting lower volatility. Traders can use this information to: Identify Potential Reversal Zones: When the price action reaches the upper or lower range of the channel, coupled with high standard deviation, it may indicate an overextended market and a potential reversal in the opposite direction. Recognize Trend Strength: If the price remains within a narrow channel and the standard deviation is relatively low, it suggests a stable and well-defined trend, while a wide channel with a high standard deviation indicates a more erratic or uncertain market. Conclusion The Linear Regression Channel and standard deviation are valuable tools for traders to gain insights into the potential range of price action and market volatility. When combined, they can provide a clearer understanding of trend direction, potential reversal points, and overall market sentiment. By using the scoring system to assess proximity to the channel, traders can make more informed decisions, enhancing their ability to navigate the dynamic world of financial markets. However, as with any technical analysis tool, it is essential to use these indicators in conjunction with other forms of analysis and risk management strategies to make well-rounded and informed trading decisions. Top 40 share scoring and selected markets The bar chart displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index. This dynamic bar chart is updated weekly, providing valuable insights. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

Introduction When it comes to investing in shares, it's crucial to be armed with the right tools and knowledge to make informed decisions. One of the most important metrics that investors use to assess the risk and return potential of equities is beta. Beta is a numerical value that measures the sensitivity of a share's price movements relative to changes in the broader market. We will delve into the concept of beta and explore its significance for share investors. What is Beta? Beta, often denoted as "β," is a statistical measure used in finance to quantify the volatility or systematic risk of a share compared to the overall market. The market, in this context, is typically represented by an index, such as the Top 40 index. The beta value indicates how much a share's price is expected to move concerning the market's movements. It helps investors understand how closely the share's performance is tied to the market's fluctuations. Interpreting Beta Values β = 1: If a share has a beta of 1, it moves in perfect correlation with the market. Its price tends to rise or fall by the same percentage as the market index. Such shares are considered market-neutral in terms of volatility. β < 1: A share with a beta below 1 is less volatile than the market. In other words, it is expected to have smaller price swings than the overall market. These shares are often referred to as defensive equities and are perceived to offer a more stable investment option. β > 1: A share with a beta above 1 is more volatile than the market. It tends to experience larger price movements, both upward and downward, compared to the market index. These shares are considered aggressive or growth-oriented investments. Risk and Return Relationship Beta plays a crucial role in determining the risk and return profile of a share. Typically, higher beta shares offer the potential for greater returns but also come with higher risk. Conversely, lower beta shares may have more modest returns but tend to be less risky and more stable during market downturns. For example, if Share A has a beta of 1.5, and the market (represented by an index) increases by 10%, Share A might be expected to rise by 15% (1.5 times the market return). Conversely, if the market falls by 10%, Share A could be anticipated to decline by 15%. How to Use Beta in Investment Decisions Diversification: Beta can help investors build a diversified portfolio. By combining shares with different beta values, investors can offset the risk of high-beta shares with the stability of low-beta shares. Risk Management: Beta assists in assessing the level of risk an investor is willing to undertake. Conservative investors might opt for low-beta shares, while those seeking higher returns might favour high-beta shares. Market Timing: Understanding beta can help investors make better decisions about when to buy or sell a share. During a bullish market, high-beta shares may outperform, while during a bearish market, low-beta shares may hold up better. Limitations of Beta While beta is a valuable metric, it does have some limitations: Historical Data: Beta is based on historical price movements, and the past may not necessarily predict future performance accurately. Market Conditions: Beta assumes that market conditions will remain constant, which is often not the case. Single-factor Metric: Beta considers only market-related risk and does not account for other factors like company-specific events or changes in industry dynamics. Conclusion Beta is a useful tool for investors to gauge the volatility and risk associated with a particular share relative to the overall market. It aids in constructing a well-balanced portfolio and managing risk according to individual investment goals and risk tolerance. However, beta should not be the sole factor in investment decisions, as it's essential to consider other aspects of a company's fundamentals and the broader economic environment to make well-informed investment choices. As with any investment analysis, it's prudent to conduct thorough research. Top 40 share beta and selected markets: The heatmap displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index alongside selected major markets. This dynamic heatmap is updated daily, providing valuable insights. For added convenience, you can download the corresponding data as an Excel file. Stay informed of the latest trends and changes in the market through this user-friendly visualisation. Download the Excel file here: https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

Introduction In the world of share trading, understanding correlation is vital for making informed investment decisions and managing risk effectively. Correlation plays a crucial role in assessing how different shares or assets move in relation to each other, providing insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and potential investment opportunities. We will explore the concept of correlation in share trading, its importance, and how traders and investors can leverage this knowledge to improve their strategies. What is Correlation in Share Trading? In share trading, correlation refers to the statistical relationship between the price movements of two or more shares or assets. When two shares have a positive correlation, they tend to move in the same direction – when one share's price increases, the other share's price also increases. On the other hand, a negative correlation indicates that two shares tend to move in opposite directions – when one share's price increases, the other share's price decreases. Finally, if two shares have a correlation close to zero, it suggests that their price movements are not significantly related. Measuring Correlation in Share Trading The most common method of measuring correlation between two shares is by using the Pearson correlation coefficient, just like in general statistics. The correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to 1, with the same interpretation as before: r = 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, where the two shares move in complete harmony. r = -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, where the two shares move in opposite directions. r ≈ 0 indicates little to no correlation, suggesting that the two shares have independent price movements. Importance of Correlation in Share Trading Understanding the correlation between different shares is crucial for several reasons: Diversification: Correlation helps traders identify assets that have low or negative correlations with each other. Diversifying a portfolio with assets that are not highly correlated can help reduce overall risk. When some assets decrease in value, others might increase, which can mitigate losses. Risk Management: High correlations among shares can increase the overall risk in a portfolio. If all shares in a portfolio are positively correlated, they are more likely to experience simultaneous declines during market downturns. By knowing the correlation between holdings, traders can optimise their portfolios to manage risk more effectively. Identifying Investment Opportunities: Traders can use correlation analysis to identify potential investment opportunities. For example, if they notice a positive correlation between two shares, they might consider one as a proxy for the other. If the correlation is negative, they may see a hedging opportunity to protect against price declines. Sector Analysis: Correlation analysis can help traders understand the broader movements within specific sectors or industries. For example, in a technology-heavy sector, many shares might be positively correlated, and understanding this can influence investment decisions within that sector. Limitations of Correlation in Share Trading While correlation is a valuable tool, it has its limitations: Changing Market Conditions: Correlations between shares can change over time due to shifts in market dynamics, economic conditions, or company-specific events. Traders need to monitor correlations regularly and be prepared for them to evolve. Limited to Linear Relationships: Correlation measures linear relationships between variables. Some shares may have non-linear relationships, making it important to consider other forms of analysis alongside correlation. Causation Concerns: As always, it's essential to remember that correlation does not imply causation. Just because two shares are correlated does not necessarily mean that one share causes the price movement of the other. Conclusion In share trading, understanding correlation is a powerful tool for making informed decisions, managing risk, and optimising investment portfolios. By analysing the relationship between different shares, traders can diversify their portfolios effectively, identify hedging opportunities, and navigate changing market conditions more intelligently. However, correlation should always be used in combination with other forms of analysis, and traders must be cautious about drawing causal conclusions solely based on correlation. With a solid understanding of correlation, traders can navigate the dynamic world of share trading with greater confidence and success. Top 40 share correlation and selected markets The heatmap displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index alongside selected major markets. This dynamic heatmap is updated daily, providing valuable insights. For added convenience, you can download the corresponding data as an Excel file. Stay informed of the latest trends and changes in the market through this user-friendly visualisation. Download the Excel file here: https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

Introduction In the world of equity market analysis, traders and investors often seek to identify promising investment opportunities by evaluating the performance of various shares. One valuable tool that aids in this analysis is the Relative Rotational Graph (RRG). RRG is a graphical representation that helps investors understand the relative strength and momentum of different shares within a given market or sector. What is a Relative Rotational Graph (RRG)? A Relative Rotational Graph is a visual representation of the relative performance of shares in comparison to a benchmark index or a specific group of shares. The graph plots individual shares as data points and illustrates their movement over time, relative to the benchmark. The positioning of each share on the graph provides crucial insights into its relative strength, momentum, and potential investment opportunities. How RRG Works: The Four Quadrants The RRG chart is divided into four quadrants, each representing different stages of relative performance: Leading (Leading Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are exhibiting strong relative strength and positive momentum compared to the benchmark. They are outperforming the broader market or sector and are considered leaders in terms of price performance. These shares are regarded as potential Profit takes or Holds candidates. Weakening (Weakening Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are experiencing a decline in relative strength compared to the benchmark. While they might still be in an uptrend, their momentum is slowing down, and they may be losing some of their leadership positions. These shares are classified as potential Deteriorating candidates or short-selling. Lagging (Lagging Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are underperforming the benchmark. They are experiencing weak relative strength and may be struggling compared to other shares or the broader market. These shares are classified as potential Avoid candidates. Improving (Improving Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are showing signs of improvement in relative strength, indicating that they are gaining momentum and starting to outperform the benchmark. These shares are considered as potential Buy candidates. Interpreting RRG for Investment Insights When analysing a Relative Rotational Graph, traders and investors can draw several meaningful conclusions: Identifying Leaders and Laggards: RRG helps investors quickly identify which shares are leading the market's upward trends and which are lagging behind. Leading shares in the Leading Quadrant might be attractive investment candidates, while those in the Lagging Quadrant could warrant closer examination to understand potential weaknesses. Spotting Trend Reversals: A changing position of a share on the RRG can signal a potential trend reversal. For example, a share moving from the Weakening Quadrant to the Improving Quadrant may indicate a shift in momentum and an upcoming upward trend. Diversification Insights: RRG can assist in portfolio diversification by highlighting shares that exhibit a low correlation with the benchmark. Adding shares with diverse movement patterns can help reduce overall portfolio risk. Monitoring Sector Rotations: RRG is especially useful for sector rotation strategies, where investors rotate their investments based on the relative strength of sectors. It helps identify which sectors are currently leading or lagging in the market. Limitations of RRG While RRG is a valuable tool, it is essential to recognize its limitations: Historical Performance: RRG is based on past price data and may not always predict future movements accurately. Not a Standalone Indicator: RRG should be used in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools for comprehensive decision-making. Volatility Impact: Highly volatile shares may exhibit erratic movements on the RRG, making interpretation challenging. Conclusion Relative Rotational Graphs provide traders and investors with a powerful visual representation of the relative performance of shares compared to a benchmark index or a group of shares. By understanding the quadrants and interpreting the movements of individual shares, investors can gain valuable insights into market trends, identify potential investment opportunities, and optimise their portfolio allocations. As with any investment analysis tool, it should be used alongside other methods and within the context of a well-thought-out investment strategy. Top 40 constituent RRG chart: The updated RRG chart displayed below compares the individual constituents of the Top 40 index against the index itself. This chart undergoes daily updates, and to enhance clarity, various colour backgrounds are utilised for ease of reference. Leading (Leading Quadrant): Green background. These shares are regarded as potential Profit takes or Hold candidates. Weakening (Weakening Quadrant): Yellow background. These shares are classified as potential Deteriorating candidates or short-selling. Lagging (Lagging Quadrant): Red background. These shares are classified as potential Avoid candidates. Improving (Improving Quadrant): Blue background. These shares are considered potential Buy candidates. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

Introduction: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a critical technical indicator used by traders and investors to assess the performance of an equity relative to the broader market or its industry peers. By understanding RPS and incorporating it into their investment strategies, individuals can gain valuable insights into an equity's potential for future price movement. We will delve into the concept of RPS, how it is calculated, and its significance in share trading. What is Relative Price Strength (RPS)? Relative Price Strength, also known as Relative Strength, is a momentum-based metric that evaluates an equity's performance relative to a benchmark index or a group of peers. It is used to identify equities that have outperformed or underperformed in their market or sector over a specified period. RPS Calculation: To calculate RPS, we compare the price performance of a particular share to the performance of a designated benchmark index or a group of shares. The RPS calculation typically involves comparing the price change over a specific time frame, depending on the preference of the trader or investor. The formula for calculating RPS is as follows: RPS = (Share's Price at date x / Share's Price at date y) / (Benchmark's Price at date x / Benchmark's Price at date y) date x = most recent price of the share or benchmark date y = price of the share or benchmark x periods ago Understanding RPS Values: The RPS value is represented as a ratio, and it indicates the stock's relative strength compared to the benchmark or peer group. A value above 1 suggests that the share has outperformed the benchmark or peers, while a value below 1 indicates underperformance. Significance of RPS in Share Trading: Identifying Strong Performers: RPS helps traders and investors identify shares that have demonstrated significant price strength compared to the overall market or their sector. These shares are often considered strong performers and may continue to exhibit positive price movement. Trend Confirmation: RPS can help confirm the prevailing trends in the market or sector. Shares with high RPS values are more likely to be in uptrends, while those with low RPS values might be in downtrends. Share Selection: Traders can use RPS to filter and prioritise their share selection process. A higher RPS value could make a share more appealing for trading or investment opportunities. Divergence Detection: RPS can also help identify potential divergences between a share and the broader market or sector. Divergences occur when an equity's price moves in the opposite direction to its RPS, which might signal a potential trend reversal or correction. Limitations of RPS: While RPS can be a valuable tool for assessing relative performance, it has some limitations that traders and investors should be aware of: Short-Term Focus: RPS is primarily a short to medium-term indicator. It might not accurately reflect a share's long-term potential or fundamental strength. Benchmark Selection: The choice of benchmark or peer group can significantly impact the RPS calculation. Different benchmarks can lead to different RPS values for the same share. Conclusion: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a valuable technical indicator that provides insights into an equity's relative performance compared to a benchmark index or its peers. By understanding RPS, traders and investors can make more informed decisions, identify strong performers, and validate existing trends in the market or sector. However, like any single metric, RPS should be used in conjunction with other indicators and fundamental analysis to make well-rounded investment decisions. JSE All Share headline indices RPS: In the financial markets, certain headline indices have showcased remarkable outperformance, suggesting a notable influx of capital. This surge in capital inflow signals growing trader and investor confidence and interest in these headline indices. Whereas traders and investors seem to be reallocating their investments away from headline indices where there is an outflow of capital. Capital Inflow headline indices (in ranking order): Resources Capital outflow headline indices (in ranking order): Industrials Financials JSE All Share share RPS: Understanding the performance of individual shares in comparison to the broader market is crucial for traders and investors seeking to capitalise on market trends. The table below highlights the top 20 and bottom 20 shares based on RPS, with a lookback period of the last 10 days, indicated by their ranking changes since the previous update. The table is updated daily. The Top 20 RPS Leaders: These are the shares that have exhibited the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the past 10 days. The Bottom 20 RPS Laggards: These shares have shown the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period. JSE All Share sector RPS: In this analysis, we will examine the top 10 and bottom 10 sectors based on RPS, considering the lookback period of the last 10 days. The table is also updated daily. The Top 10 RPS Leading Sectors These sectors have demonstrated the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index during the 10-day lookback period. The Bottom 10 RPS Lagging Sectors Conversely, these sectors have exhibited the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

The market overview serves as a comprehensive snapshot of the financial markets, providing a summary of various asset classes, sectors, and indices. Its primary purpose is to showcase the performance of different financial instruments over a specific period. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

The Week That Was All three major US equity indices experienced significant declines on Friday afternoon. Traders and investor caution was palpable due to the convergence of a massive options expiration event on the year's third "triple witching" day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by nearly 300 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. Shares of technology giants were notably affected, with Amazon, Nvidia, and Microsoft each tumbling by over 2%. Adobe Systems also witnessed a steep 4.9% drop, despite meeting quarterly earnings expectations. The company's failure to excite market participants about revenue-boosting AI tools was a notable disappointment. Planet Fitness saw its shares plummet more than 14% following the unexpected departure of its CEO. In contrast, automakers Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis (the parent company of Chrysler) experienced upward momentum, benefiting from the United Auto Workers' strike that led to halted production lines. Arm Holdings, fresh off its successful public debut, also registered modest gains. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.1%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have declined by 0.5% and 1%, respectively. The JSE All Share Index ended Friday at a one-week peak of 74590, marking a 0.3% increase. The upward movement was driven by strong performances in the luxury, consumer goods, and resources sectors, buoyed by optimistic industrial production and retail sales data from China that triggered a surge in commodities. A Reuters survey further indicated that South Africa's Reserve Bank is likely to keep its interest rates steady at 8.25% in its upcoming meeting on 21 September, as inflation is forecasted to stay within the bank's target range of 3-6% for the subsequent two quarters. In terms of individual shares, mining and extraction companies stole the spotlight, with Northam Platinum, Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum, and Exxaro Resources recording gains of 5.8%, 5%, 4.6%, and 4.3% respectively. Over the course of the week, the JSE All Share Index saw an overall growth of 1.3%. The Week Ahead The US Federal Reserve is poised for its monetary policy meeting this Wednesday, with market expectations leaning toward a maintenance of the current interest rates at 5.25%-5.5%—the highest levels since 2001. Traders and investors are keenly awaiting the forthcoming FOMC projections to gauge the implications of this aggressive policy tightening on inflation and employment. On the economic front, preliminary estimates from the S&P Global PMI survey are likely to show a contraction in US manufacturing for September, even as the services sector exhibits modest growth. The Bank of England (BOE) is projected to hike its bank rate by 25bps to 5.5%, marking the 15th consecutive increase and the highest rate since 2008. This comes a day ahead of August’s inflation data, which is expected to reveal a 7.1% surge in consumer prices—far exceeding the bank's 2% target. Retail sales data for August is also forecasted to rebound, though flash PMI figures may indicate a consecutive monthly dip in private sector output. In Europe, early PMI readings for the Eurozone, Germany, and France are expected to reveal declining activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors for September. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China's loan prime rate decision is of particular interest, especially following the unexpected cut in the reserve requirement ratio last week. Japan's interest rate decision will also be closely watched after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda hinted at the potential appropriateness of positive interest rates in the long term. Key Japanese data releases include September’s PMI figures and August's inflation rate and trade balance. Key Themes for the Week Ahead FOMC interest rate decision With the US Fed fund futures indicating a 96% likelihood of the Fed maintaining interest rates this week, any move to hike would unquestionably jolt the markets. This is despite last week's economic indicators—CPI, PPI, and retail sales—all exceeding expectations. The current Fed Funds curve seems to back the prevailing interest rate range of 5.25-5.5% as the terminal rate, though it suggests roughly a 36% chance of a rate hike occurring in either November or December. As such, the real focus of this week's FOMC meeting lies in setting the stage for market expectations for November and beyond. This upcoming meeting will also provide updated quarterly staff forecasts. Last quarter, the median Fed rate projection was raised from 5.125% to 5.625%, signalling the likelihood of two more hikes. Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were similarly lifted, reinforcing the "higher for longer" narrative. Given that one of these anticipated hikes has already been implemented as inferred from Q2 projections, market participants are keen to find out if the median projection will be lowered, indicating that the current rate could be the terminal one. If, however, the projection remains elevated, it may imply another rate hike is in the pipeline for either November or December—assuming the Fed doesn't take markets by surprise this week. It is crucial to also focus on updated inflation forecasts during the meeting. These will offer a more comprehensive view of the Fed's hawkish or dovish stance. Should the growth outlook be revised upward, it might suggest a potential for a "soft landing" for the economy. Conversely, if both growth and inflation forecasts are increased, the meeting would be perceived as more hawkish, likely boosting the US dollar at the expense of Wall Street indices. UK inflation and Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decision Wage growth headlines showed an eye-catching 7.8% year-over-year increase or 8.5% when accounting for bonuses. Although the BOE has expressed concerns about a wage-inflation spiral, these figures initially suggest that the central bank may not be as close to its terminal rate as some of its members have recently implied. However, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) notes that these figures may be artificially high due to one-time payments made to National Health Service (NHS) and Civil Service employees in June and July 2023. ING analysts also speculate that actual wage growth may have decreased recently when considering alternative payroll-based measures. Adding to the complexity, employment growth declined at its swiftest rate since August 2020, registering at -220 000. GDP estimates showed a month-on-month contraction of -0.5%, worse than the expected -0.2%. Both construction output and industrial production failed to meet expectations, and mortgage applications are on the decline. Given these conditions, should this week's inflation data turn out to be softer than anticipated, the BOE may indeed be nearing the end of its rate-tightening cycle. As it stands, the BOE's interest rate is 5.25%. According to the 1-month Overnight Index Swap (OIS), there's a 44% chance of an interest rate hike this week. The 3-month OIS has fully priced in at least one more rate hike, but the timing remains uncertain. Therefore, this week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could be the deciding factor in whether that rate hike occurs sooner rather than later. Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate decision, Japan’s inflation and trade data When it comes to BOJ meetings, the expectation is generally for policy stability, but it's always wise to be prepared for a surprise. What distinguishes this particular meeting is that BOJ Governor Ueda has been increasingly vocal about the possibility of a rate hike, even if it's not expected to occur this year. This has led to growing speculation that the BOJ might opt for a rate hike before relinquishing its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. Considering that the BOJ expanded the YCC band during their last meeting, it is unlikely they will abandon the policy in the near term. A Reuters poll indicates that 73% of economists anticipate the BOJ dropping the YCC next year, but only 41% foresee the termination of negative interest rates in the same time frame. While recent excitement in money markets has indicated an uptick in rate hike expectations, it is not until the 9-month Overnight Index Swap (OIS) that the pricing out of negative interest rates appears. Even then, this trend is receding back towards zero. Also worth noting are the forthcoming releases of inflation and trade data. The key Consumer Price Index (CPI) metric to monitor is the core figure, which excludes fresh food and energy. A rising core CPI could make the case for a more hawkish BOJ stance. This metric surged by 4.3% in both June and August, hitting 42-year highs. If the monthly read, which has increased in six of the past seven months, posts a rise of 0.6% or higher, it could expedite expectations for a BOJ rate hike and exert downward pressure on USD/JPY. Bitcoin (BTC) surpasses Visa transaction volume The annual transaction volume of Bitcoin has now exceeded that of Visa (NYSE:V), marking a noteworthy milestone, especially given that Bitcoin operates on a decentralised network and has not yet achieved global usage on par with Visa. However, before celebrating this achievement, it is crucial to understand some subtleties that often get overlooked. To begin with, the phrase "transaction volume" can be somewhat deceptive. In Bitcoin's case, a considerable portion of network activity over the past year originated from Ordinals—a protocol that assigns unique identifiers to satoshis in the blockchain, enabling transactions with additional data like images. This protocol facilitates high-frequency transactions. As such, the high volume of transactions might not necessarily reflect broad retail usage or adoption. Moreover, comparing Visa and blockchain networks like Bitcoin in transaction terms is a complex endeavour. Visa is a centralised payment system, honed over decades to facilitate consumer transactions. Bitcoin, by contrast, is a decentralised platform where transactions can range from buying a cup of coffee to transferring multi-million-dollar assets. These systems are fundamentally distinct, each with its own set of rules, constraints, and applications. Still, overtaking Visa in transaction volume is undeniably a significant event. It underscores the rising prominence of decentralised networks and prompts us to ponder what the future of finance might hold. Could decentralised platforms eventually become the standard, making centralised systems obsolete? International Earnings This week's earnings calendar is relatively subdued, as the spotlight shifts to central banks. Notable among them are the US Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, all of which are scheduled to make critical interest rate decisions. In the corporate sector, key earnings reports to watch for in the US include delivery behemoth FedEx, automotive parts retailer AutoZone, packaged food company General Mills, and Darden Restaurants, the parent company of Olive Garden. From the UK, the most significant update is expected to come from Kingfisher, the owner of retail chains B&Q and Screwfix. South Africa News As South Africa grapples with an ongoing cost-of-living crisis, consumers burdened with loan repayments are anxiously awaiting this week's interest rate announcement. This Thursday, Lesetja Kganyago, the Governor of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), will unveil the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision regarding any adjustments to the country's repurchase rate, commonly known as the repo rate. The current repo rate stands at 8.25%, while the prime lending rate is set at 11.75%. During its last meeting in July, the MPC opted to maintain the status quo on the repo rate. Thanks to a modest easing in inflation, the SARB was able to hold the rate steady, even though it remains at a relatively elevated level. Despite the challenging economic environment, the Department of Social Development has transferred more than R15 billion in unspent social relief of distress (SRD) grants back to the National Treasury during the past fiscal year. Based on the most recent General Household Survey for 2022 from Stats SA, grants serve as the secondary primary income for 50.2% of South African households, trailing only behind salaries, which account for 59.75%. Economic Calendar In the upcoming economic calendar for this week, several significant events are scheduled to take place. source: investing.com https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

VIEW RETAINED FOR A 1890 TO 2002 PRICE CONSOLIDATION THAT WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD AS A BULL TREND TO 2150 The illustrated view remains valid and is retained. Continuing R1/S1** consolidation, as illustrated by the W, X, Y interim phase should bottom out above S1** to complete phase Y. The indicated bull trend to TA1 is likely to develop after the completion of the expected W, X, Y range trading. Breaking below S1** will negate the general bullish outlook, while any break above R1* will activate the bullish bias again. TARGET AND RE-ASSESSMENT LEVELS: Pivotal levels S1** Primary trend R1/S1** ranging, followed by eventual gains to TA1 Prevailing trend Downside towards S1** Technical rating Medium to high https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

VIEW RETAINED FOR A BULLISH PRICE ACTION TO $99.40/$105.50 The long-held view of a W, X, Y upside to R2 and R3 is materialising. The detailed illustration is self-explanatory and has a generalized outlook. R3 would be an essential target where the PQ wedge has been retracted. Overbought RSI conditions (Z) could result in interim downside off R1 towards S0*. The highlighted view remains valid as long as the market remains above S0* Target and re-assessment levels View negated: S0* Primary trend: A bull trend to R2/R3 Prevailing trend: R1/S0* consolidation Technical rating Medium to high https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

Introduction When it comes to investing in shares, it's crucial to be armed with the right tools and knowledge to make informed decisions. One of the most important metrics that investors use to assess the risk and return potential of equities is beta. Beta is a numerical value that measures the sensitivity of a share's price movements relative to changes in the broader market. We will delve into the concept of beta and explore its significance for share investors. What is Beta? Beta, often denoted as "β," is a statistical measure used in finance to quantify the volatility or systematic risk of a share compared to the overall market. The market, in this context, is typically represented by an index, such as the Top 40 index. The beta value indicates how much a share's price is expected to move concerning the market's movements. It helps investors understand how closely the share's performance is tied to the market's fluctuations. Interpreting Beta Values β = 1: If a share has a beta of 1, it moves in perfect correlation with the market. Its price tends to rise or fall by the same percentage as the market index. Such shares are considered market-neutral in terms of volatility. β < 1: A share with a beta below 1 is less volatile than the market. In other words, it is expected to have smaller price swings than the overall market. These shares are often referred to as defensive equities and are perceived to offer a more stable investment option. β > 1: A share with a beta above 1 is more volatile than the market. It tends to experience larger price movements, both upward and downward, compared to the market index. These shares are considered aggressive or growth-oriented investments. Risk and Return Relationship Beta plays a crucial role in determining the risk and return profile of a share. Typically, higher beta shares offer the potential for greater returns but also come with higher risk. Conversely, lower beta shares may have more modest returns but tend to be less risky and more stable during market downturns. For example, if Share A has a beta of 1.5, and the market (represented by an index) increases by 10%, Share A might be expected to rise by 15% (1.5 times the market return). Conversely, if the market falls by 10%, Share A could be anticipated to decline by 15%. How to Use Beta in Investment Decisions Diversification: Beta can help investors build a diversified portfolio. By combining shares with different beta values, investors can offset the risk of high-beta shares with the stability of low-beta shares. Risk Management: Beta assists in assessing the level of risk an investor is willing to undertake. Conservative investors might opt for low-beta shares, while those seeking higher returns might favour high-beta shares. Market Timing: Understanding beta can help investors make better decisions about when to buy or sell a share. During a bullish market, high-beta shares may outperform, while during a bearish market, low-beta shares may hold up better. Limitations of Beta While beta is a valuable metric, it does have some limitations: Historical Data: Beta is based on historical price movements, and the past may not necessarily predict future performance accurately. Market Conditions: Beta assumes that market conditions will remain constant, which is often not the case. Single-factor Metric: Beta considers only market-related risk and does not account for other factors like company-specific events or changes in industry dynamics. Conclusion Beta is a useful tool for investors to gauge the volatility and risk associated with a particular share relative to the overall market. It aids in constructing a well-balanced portfolio and managing risk according to individual investment goals and risk tolerance. However, beta should not be the sole factor in investment decisions, as it's essential to consider other aspects of a company's fundamentals and the broader economic environment to make well-informed investment choices. As with any investment analysis, it's prudent to conduct thorough research. Top 40 share beta and selected markets: The heatmap displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index alongside selected major markets. This dynamic heatmap is updated daily, providing valuable insights. For added convenience, you can download the corresponding data as an Excel file. Stay informed of the latest trends and changes in the market through this user-friendly visualisation. Download the Excel file here: https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

Introduction In the world of share trading, understanding correlation is vital for making informed investment decisions and managing risk effectively. Correlation plays a crucial role in assessing how different shares or assets move in relation to each other, providing insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and potential investment opportunities. We will explore the concept of correlation in share trading, its importance, and how traders and investors can leverage this knowledge to improve their strategies. What is Correlation in Share Trading? In share trading, correlation refers to the statistical relationship between the price movements of two or more shares or assets. When two shares have a positive correlation, they tend to move in the same direction – when one share's price increases, the other share's price also increases. On the other hand, a negative correlation indicates that two shares tend to move in opposite directions – when one share's price increases, the other share's price decreases. Finally, if two shares have a correlation close to zero, it suggests that their price movements are not significantly related. Measuring Correlation in Share Trading The most common method of measuring correlation between two shares is by using the Pearson correlation coefficient, just like in general statistics. The correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to 1, with the same interpretation as before: r = 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, where the two shares move in complete harmony. r = -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, where the two shares move in opposite directions. r ≈ 0 indicates little to no correlation, suggesting that the two shares have independent price movements. Importance of Correlation in Share Trading Understanding the correlation between different shares is crucial for several reasons: Diversification: Correlation helps traders identify assets that have low or negative correlations with each other. Diversifying a portfolio with assets that are not highly correlated can help reduce overall risk. When some assets decrease in value, others might increase, which can mitigate losses. Risk Management: High correlations among shares can increase the overall risk in a portfolio. If all shares in a portfolio are positively correlated, they are more likely to experience simultaneous declines during market downturns. By knowing the correlation between holdings, traders can optimise their portfolios to manage risk more effectively. Identifying Investment Opportunities: Traders can use correlation analysis to identify potential investment opportunities. For example, if they notice a positive correlation between two shares, they might consider one as a proxy for the other. If the correlation is negative, they may see a hedging opportunity to protect against price declines. Sector Analysis: Correlation analysis can help traders understand the broader movements within specific sectors or industries. For example, in a technology-heavy sector, many shares might be positively correlated, and understanding this can influence investment decisions within that sector. Limitations of Correlation in Share Trading While correlation is a valuable tool, it has its limitations: Changing Market Conditions: Correlations between shares can change over time due to shifts in market dynamics, economic conditions, or company-specific events. Traders need to monitor correlations regularly and be prepared for them to evolve. Limited to Linear Relationships: Correlation measures linear relationships between variables. Some shares may have non-linear relationships, making it important to consider other forms of analysis alongside correlation. Causation Concerns: As always, it's essential to remember that correlation does not imply causation. Just because two shares are correlated does not necessarily mean that one share causes the price movement of the other. Conclusion In share trading, understanding correlation is a powerful tool for making informed decisions, managing risk, and optimising investment portfolios. By analysing the relationship between different shares, traders can diversify their portfolios effectively, identify hedging opportunities, and navigate changing market conditions more intelligently. However, correlation should always be used in combination with other forms of analysis, and traders must be cautious about drawing causal conclusions solely based on correlation. With a solid understanding of correlation, traders can navigate the dynamic world of share trading with greater confidence and success. Top 40 share correlation and selected markets The heatmap displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index alongside selected major markets. This dynamic heatmap is updated daily, providing valuable insights. For added convenience, you can download the corresponding data as an Excel file. Stay informed of the latest trends and changes in the market through this user-friendly visualisation. Download the Excel file here: https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer