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Introduction: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a key technical indicator used by traders and investors to assess the performance of an equity relative to the broader market or its industry peers. By understanding RPS and incorporating it into their investment strategies, individuals can gain valuable insights into an equity's potential for future price movement. We will delve into the concept of RPS, how it is calculated, and its significance in share trading. What is Relative Price Strength (RPS)? Relative Price Strength, also known as Relative Strength, is a momentum-based metric that evaluates an equity's performance relative to a benchmark index or a group of peers. It is used to identify equities that have outperformed or underperformed in their market or sector over a specified period. RPS Calculation: To calculate RPS, we compare the price performance of a particular share to the performance of a designated benchmark index or a group of shares. The RPS calculation typically involves comparing the price change over a specific time frame, depending on the preference of the trader or investor. The formula for calculating RPS is as follows: RPS = (Share's Price at date x / Share's Price at date y) / (Benchmark's Price at date x / Benchmark's Price at date y) date x = most recent price of the share or benchmark date y = price of the share or benchmark x periods ago Understanding RPS Values: The RPS value is represented as a ratio, and it indicates the stock's relative strength compared to the benchmark or peer group. A value above 1 suggests that the share has outperformed the benchmark or peers, while a value below 1 indicates underperformance. Significance of RPS in Share Trading: Identifying Strong Performers: RPS helps traders and investors identify shares that have demonstrated significant price strength compared to the overall market or their sector. These shares are often considered strong performers and may continue to exhibit positive price movement. Trend Confirmation: RPS can help confirm the prevailing trends in the market or sector. Shares with high RPS values are more likely to be in uptrends, while those with low RPS values might be in downtrends. Share Selection: Traders can use RPS to filter and prioritise their share selection process. A higher RPS value could make a share more appealing for trading or investment opportunities. Divergence Detection: RPS can also help identify potential divergences between a share and the broader market or sector. Divergences occur when an equity's price moves in the opposite direction to its RPS, which might signal a potential trend reversal or correction. Limitations of RPS: While RPS can be a valuable tool for assessing relative performance, it has some limitations that traders and investors should be aware of: Short-Term Focus: RPS is primarily a short to medium-term indicator. It might not accurately reflect a share's long-term potential or fundamental strength. Benchmark Selection: The choice of benchmark or peer group can significantly impact the RPS calculation. Different benchmarks can lead to different RPS values for the same share. Conclusion: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a valuable technical indicator that provides insights into an equity's relative performance compared to a benchmark index or its peers. By understanding RPS, traders and investors can make more informed decisions, identify strong performers, and validate existing trends in the market or sector. However, like any single metric, RPS should be used in conjunction with other indicators and fundamental analysis to make well-rounded investment decisions. JSE All Share headline indices RPS: In the financial markets, certain headline indices have showcased remarkable outperformance, suggesting a notable influx of capital. This surge in capital inflow signals growing trader and investor confidence and interest in these headline indices. Whereas traders and investors seem to be reallocating their investments away from headline indices where there is an outflow of capital. Capital Inflow headline indices (in ranking order): Resouces and Financials Capital outflow headline indices (in ranking order): Industrials JSE All Share share RPS: Understanding the performance of individual shares in comparison to the broader market is crucial for traders and investors seeking to capitalise on market trends. The table below highlights the top 20 and bottom 20 shares based on RPS, with a lookback period of the last 10 days, indicated by their ranking changes since the previous update. The table is updated daily. The Top 20 RPS Leaders: these are the shares that have exhibited the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the past 10 days. The Bottom 20 RPS Laggards: these shares have shown the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period. JSE All Share sector RPS: In this analysis, we will examine the top 10 and bottom 10 sectors based on RPS, considering the lookback period of the last 10 days. The table is also updated daily. The Top 10 RPS Leading Sectors These sectors have demonstrated the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index during the 10-day lookback period. The Bottom 10 RPS Lagging Sectors Conversely, these sectors have exhibited the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

The market overview serves as a comprehensive snapshot of the financial markets, providing a summary of various asset classes, sectors, and indices. Its primary purpose is to showcase the performance of different financial instruments over a specific period. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

KIO is a name discussed on Monday 10 July 2023 with the view that the share could find support near it's swing low. While the pullback was not as aggressive as anticipated, the share started to move higher near the swing lows. Yesterday we saw the share close higher by 11% following it's market update. The original and follow-up slides are shown below. For an enlarged view, click on the arrows in the top right corner of the image KIO as at yesterday's close Well done to those who traded it. To get started, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk on E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 If you have found these research insights useful and think that it could compliment you own ideas, you might consider becoming a frequent recipient of my research. To do that, get in touch with me at lester@unum.co.za

For an enlarged view, click on the arrows in the top right corner of the image

For an enlarged view, click on the arrows in the top right corner of the image

For an enlarged view, click on the arrows in the top right corner of the image

VIEW RETAINED: MATURING BEAR TREND The general view of an ABC-type correction to S1 and S2 is in a mature stage of development. The expected downside off R3 has tested the initial S1 target level. The subsequent upward correction is possibly still part of the larger downside to S2*. R0* and S2* are now the important levels. A breach of R0* will suggest to a medium-term trend reversal, while trading below S2* will activate an extended downside. Targets: S1 is the previous consolidation bottom. S2* is important where A= C in length as a common technical extension target. A breach of S2* will extend downside to S3 Breaking above R1* will negate the current view. Target and re-assessment levels View negated: R0* and S2* Primary trend and targets: Bear trend off R1* to S1 and S2*. Current trend and targets: R0*/S1 ranging Monthly range: R1*/ S0 Technical rating: Medium. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

VIEW RETAINED FOR A 68 600 TO 73 300 PRICE PROBABILITIES The illustrated view of a PQ consolidation, followed by the return of the primary bull trend to T1, is retained. The overall PQ PATTERN is maturing with phase D completed. Any break of R1* will activate the bull trend. Phase E is illustrated as downside to Q and S0. This theoretical outcome is not always the case with final subdivisions in a triangle pattern. Alternatives: E can either be small in comparison to the other legs with moderate downside or alternatively large to Q. This is due to trending market forces being re-established. Target and re-assessment levels Important Levels: S1* and R1* Primary trend and targets: PQ ranging, followed by gains to T1* Prevailing trend and targets: R1* SM ranging Monthly range: R1/S0 Technical rating: Medium https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

VIEW RETAINED: MATURING WEDGE PATTERN The long-term P*Z* wedge pattern seems incomplete with further overlapping A,B,C and W,X,Y phases, as illustrated. The A,B,C bull phase off S1 has completed the expected B phase within the R1/S0 range. Phase C should now target line P*. The potential for a bearish reversal at P* will activate the final W,X,Y downside to Z*/S1 cluster support. A long-term bottom around Z* is expected to initiate a multi-year impulsive bull trend to R3 and R4. Any definite break of P* will signal the end of the P,Z bear phase and activate the bull trend to R3/R4. Target and re-assessment levels Negation Levels: P* and Z* Primary trend and targets: Overlapping downside to S1/Z, followed by gains to R3/R4 Prevailing trend and targets: Gains to P* Technical rating: Medium to high. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

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Introduction When it comes to investing in shares, it's crucial to be armed with the right tools and knowledge to make informed decisions. One of the most important metrics that investors use to assess the risk and return potential of equities is beta. Beta is a numerical value that measures the sensitivity of a share's price movements relative to changes in the broader market. We will delve into the concept of beta and explore its significance for share investors. What is Beta? Beta, often denoted as "β," is a statistical measure used in finance to quantify the volatility or systematic risk of a share compared to the overall market. The market, in this context, is typically represented by an index, such as the Top 40 index. The beta value indicates how much a share's price is expected to move concerning the market's movements. It helps investors understand how closely the share's performance is tied to the market's fluctuations. Interpreting Beta Values β = 1: If a share has a beta of 1, it moves in perfect correlation with the market. Its price tends to rise or fall by the same percentage as the market index. Such shares are considered market-neutral in terms of volatility. β < 1: A share with a beta below 1 is less volatile than the market. In other words, it is expected to have smaller price swings than the overall market. These shares are often referred to as defensive equities and are perceived to offer a more stable investment option. β > 1: A share with a beta above 1 is more volatile than the market. It tends to experience larger price movements, both upward and downward, compared to the market index. These shares are considered aggressive or growth-oriented investments. Risk and Return Relationship Beta plays a crucial role in determining the risk and return profile of a share. Typically, higher beta shares offer the potential for greater returns but also come with higher risk. Conversely, lower beta shares may have more modest returns but tend to be less risky and more stable during market downturns. For example, if Share A has a beta of 1.5, and the market (represented by an index) increases by 10%, Share A might be expected to rise by 15% (1.5 times the market return). Conversely, if the market falls by 10%, Share A could be anticipated to decline by 15%. How to Use Beta in Investment Decisions Diversification: Beta can help investors build a diversified portfolio. By combining shares with different beta values, investors can offset the risk of high-beta shares with the stability of low-beta shares. Risk Management: Beta assists in assessing the level of risk an investor is willing to undertake. Conservative investors might opt for low-beta shares, while those seeking higher returns might favour high-beta shares. Market Timing: Understanding beta can help investors make better decisions about when to buy or sell a share. During a bullish market, high-beta shares may outperform, while during a bearish market, low-beta shares may hold up better. Limitations of Beta While beta is a valuable metric, it does have some limitations: Historical Data: Beta is based on historical price movements, and the past may not necessarily predict future performance accurately. Market Conditions: Beta assumes that market conditions will remain constant, which is often not the case. Single-factor Metric: Beta considers only market-related risk and does not account for other factors like company-specific events or changes in industry dynamics. Conclusion Beta is a useful tool for investors to gauge the volatility and risk associated with a particular share relative to the overall market. It aids in constructing a well-balanced portfolio and managing risk according to individual investment goals and risk tolerance. However, beta should not be the sole factor in investment decisions, as it's essential to consider other aspects of a company's fundamentals and the broader economic environment to make well-informed investment choices. As with any investment analysis, it's prudent to conduct thorough research. Top 40 share beta and selected markets: The heatmap displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index alongside selected major markets. This dynamic heatmap is updated daily, providing valuable insights. For added convenience, you can download the corresponding data as an Excel file. Stay informed of the latest trends and changes in the market through this user-friendly visualisation. Download the Excel file here: https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

Introduction In the world of share trading, understanding correlation is vital for making informed investment decisions and managing risk effectively. Correlation plays a crucial role in assessing how different shares or assets move in relation to each other, providing insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and potential investment opportunities. We will explore the concept of correlation in share trading, its importance, and how traders and investors can leverage this knowledge to improve their strategies. What is Correlation in Share Trading? In share trading, correlation refers to the statistical relationship between the price movements of two or more shares or assets. When two shares have a positive correlation, they tend to move in the same direction – when one share's price increases, the other share's price also increases. On the other hand, a negative correlation indicates that two shares tend to move in opposite directions – when one share's price increases, the other share's price decreases. Finally, if two shares have a correlation close to zero, it suggests that their price movements are not significantly related. Measuring Correlation in Share Trading The most common method of measuring correlation between two shares is by using the Pearson correlation coefficient, just like in general statistics. The correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to 1, with the same interpretation as before: r = 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, where the two shares move in complete harmony. r = -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, where the two shares move in opposite directions. r ≈ 0 indicates little to no correlation, suggesting that the two shares have independent price movements. Importance of Correlation in Share Trading Understanding the correlation between different shares is crucial for several reasons: Diversification: Correlation helps traders identify assets that have low or negative correlations with each other. Diversifying a portfolio with assets that are not highly correlated can help reduce overall risk. When some assets decrease in value, others might increase, which can mitigate losses. Risk Management: High correlations among shares can increase the overall risk in a portfolio. If all shares in a portfolio are positively correlated, they are more likely to experience simultaneous declines during market downturns. By knowing the correlation between holdings, traders can optimise their portfolios to manage risk more effectively. Identifying Investment Opportunities: Traders can use correlation analysis to identify potential investment opportunities. For example, if they notice a positive correlation between two shares, they might consider one as a proxy for the other. If the correlation is negative, they may see a hedging opportunity to protect against price declines. Sector Analysis: Correlation analysis can help traders understand the broader movements within specific sectors or industries. For example, in a technology-heavy sector, many shares might be positively correlated, and understanding this can influence investment decisions within that sector. Limitations of Correlation in Share Trading While correlation is a valuable tool, it has its limitations: Changing Market Conditions: Correlations between shares can change over time due to shifts in market dynamics, economic conditions, or company-specific events. Traders need to monitor correlations regularly and be prepared for them to evolve. Limited to Linear Relationships: Correlation measures linear relationships between variables. Some shares may have non-linear relationships, making it important to consider other forms of analysis alongside correlation. Causation Concerns: As always, it's essential to remember that correlation does not imply causation. Just because two shares are correlated does not necessarily mean that one share causes the price movement of the other. Conclusion In share trading, understanding correlation is a powerful tool for making informed decisions, managing risk, and optimising investment portfolios. By analysing the relationship between different shares, traders can diversify their portfolios effectively, identify hedging opportunities, and navigate changing market conditions more intelligently. However, correlation should always be used in combination with other forms of analysis, and traders must be cautious about drawing causal conclusions solely based on correlation. With a solid understanding of correlation, traders can navigate the dynamic world of share trading with greater confidence and success. Top 40 share correlation and selected markets The heatmap displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index alongside selected major markets. This dynamic heatmap is updated daily, providing valuable insights. For added convenience, you can download the corresponding data as an Excel file. Stay informed of the latest trends and changes in the market through this user-friendly visualisation. Download the Excel file here: https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer