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Introduction In the world of equity market analysis, traders and investors often seek to identify promising investment opportunities by evaluating the performance of various shares. One valuable tool that aids in this analysis is the Relative Rotational Graph (RRG). RRG is a graphical representation that helps investors understand the relative strength and momentum of different shares within a given market or sector. What is a Relative Rotational Graph (RRG)? A Relative Rotational Graph is a visual representation of the relative performance of shares in comparison to a benchmark index or a specific group of shares. The graph plots individual shares as data points and illustrates their movement over time, relative to the benchmark. The positioning of each share on the graph provides crucial insights into its relative strength, momentum, and potential investment opportunities. How RRG Works: The Four Quadrants The RRG chart is divided into four quadrants, each representing different stages of relative performance: Leading (Leading Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are exhibiting strong relative strength and positive momentum compared to the benchmark. They are outperforming the broader market or sector and are considered leaders in terms of price performance. These shares are regarded as potential Profit takes or Holds candidates. Weakening (Weakening Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are experiencing a decline in relative strength compared to the benchmark. While they might still be in an uptrend, their momentum is slowing down, and they may be losing some of their leadership positions. These shares are classified as potential Deteriorating candidates or short-selling. Lagging (Lagging Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are underperforming the benchmark. They are experiencing weak relative strength and may be struggling compared to other shares or the broader market. These shares are classified as potential Avoid candidates. Improving (Improving Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are showing signs of improvement in relative strength, indicating that they are gaining momentum and starting to outperform the benchmark. These shares are considered as potential Buy candidates. Interpreting RRG for Investment Insights When analysing a Relative Rotational Graph, traders and investors can draw several meaningful conclusions: Identifying Leaders and Laggards: RRG helps investors quickly identify which shares are leading the market's upward trends and which are lagging behind. Leading shares in the Leading Quadrant might be attractive investment candidates, while those in the Lagging Quadrant could warrant closer examination to understand potential weaknesses. Spotting Trend Reversals: A changing position of a share on the RRG can signal a potential trend reversal. For example, a share moving from the Weakening Quadrant to the Improving Quadrant may indicate a shift in momentum and an upcoming upward trend. Diversification Insights: RRG can assist in portfolio diversification by highlighting shares that exhibit a low correlation with the benchmark. Adding shares with diverse movement patterns can help reduce overall portfolio risk. Monitoring Sector Rotations: RRG is especially useful for sector rotation strategies, where investors rotate their investments based on the relative strength of sectors. It helps identify which sectors are currently leading or lagging in the market. Limitations of RRG While RRG is a valuable tool, it is essential to recognize its limitations: Historical Performance: RRG is based on past price data and may not always predict future movements accurately. Not a Standalone Indicator: RRG should be used in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools for comprehensive decision-making. Volatility Impact: Highly volatile shares may exhibit erratic movements on the RRG, making interpretation challenging. Conclusion Relative Rotational Graphs provide traders and investors with a powerful visual representation of the relative performance of shares compared to a benchmark index or a group of shares. By understanding the quadrants and interpreting the movements of individual shares, investors can gain valuable insights into market trends, identify potential investment opportunities, and optimise their portfolio allocations. As with any investment analysis tool, it should be used alongside other methods and within the context of a well-thought-out investment strategy. Top 40 constituent RRG chart: The updated RRG chart displayed below compares the individual constituents of the Top 40 index against the index itself. This chart undergoes daily updates, and to enhance clarity, various colour backgrounds are utilised for ease of reference. Leading (Leading Quadrant): Green background. These shares are regarded as potential Profit takes or Holds candidates. Weakening (Weakening Quadrant): Yellow background. These shares are classified as potential Deteriorating candidates or short-selling. Lagging (Lagging Quadrant): Red background. These shares are classified as potential Avoid candidates. Improving (Improving Quadrant): Blue background. These shares are considered potential Buy candidates. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

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Introduction: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a key technical indicator used by traders and investors to assess the performance of an equity relative to the broader market or its industry peers. By understanding RPS and incorporating it into their investment strategies, individuals can gain valuable insights into an equity's potential for future price movement. We will delve into the concept of RPS, how it is calculated, and its significance in share trading. What is Relative Price Strength (RPS)? Relative Price Strength, also known as Relative Strength, is a momentum-based metric that evaluates an equity's performance relative to a benchmark index or a group of peers. It is used to identify equities that have outperformed or underperformed in their market or sector over a specified period. RPS Calculation: To calculate RPS, we compare the price performance of a particular share to the performance of a designated benchmark index or a group of shares. The RPS calculation typically involves comparing the price change over a specific time frame, depending on the preference of the trader or investor. The formula for calculating RPS is as follows: RPS = (Share's Price at date x / Share's Price at date y) / (Benchmark's Price at date x / Benchmark's Price at date y) date x = most recent price of the share or benchmark date y = price of the share or benchmark x periods ago Understanding RPS Values: The RPS value is represented as a ratio, and it indicates the stock's relative strength compared to the benchmark or peer group. A value above 1 suggests that the share has outperformed the benchmark or peers, while a value below 1 indicates underperformance. Significance of RPS in Share Trading: Identifying Strong Performers: RPS helps traders and investors identify shares that have demonstrated significant price strength compared to the overall market or their sector. These shares are often considered strong performers and may continue to exhibit positive price movement. Trend Confirmation: RPS can help confirm the prevailing trends in the market or sector. Shares with high RPS values are more likely to be in uptrends, while those with low RPS values might be in downtrends. Share Selection: Traders can use RPS to filter and prioritise their share selection process. A higher RPS value could make a share more appealing for trading or investment opportunities. Divergence Detection: RPS can also help identify potential divergences between a share and the broader market or sector. Divergences occur when an equity's price moves in the opposite direction to its RPS, which might signal a potential trend reversal or correction. Limitations of RPS: While RPS can be a valuable tool for assessing relative performance, it has some limitations that traders and investors should be aware of: Short-Term Focus: RPS is primarily a short to medium-term indicator. It might not accurately reflect a share's long-term potential or fundamental strength. Benchmark Selection: The choice of benchmark or peer group can significantly impact the RPS calculation. Different benchmarks can lead to different RPS values for the same share. Conclusion: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a valuable technical indicator that provides insights into an equity's relative performance compared to a benchmark index or its peers. By understanding RPS, traders and investors can make more informed decisions, identify strong performers, and validate existing trends in the market or sector. However, like any single metric, RPS should be used in conjunction with other indicators and fundamental analysis to make well-rounded investment decisions. JSE All Share headline indices RPS: In the financial markets, certain headline indices have showcased remarkable outperformance, suggesting a notable influx of capital. This surge in capital inflow signals growing trader and investor confidence and interest in these headline indices. Whereas traders and investors seem to be reallocating their investments away from headline indices where there is an outflow of capital. Capital Inflow headline indices (in ranking order): Financials and Resources Capital outflow headline indices (in ranking order): Industrials JSE All Share share RPS: Understanding the performance of individual shares in comparison to the broader market is crucial for traders and investors seeking to capitalise on market trends. The table below highlights the top 20 and bottom 20 shares based on RPS, with a lookback period of the last 10 days, indicated by their ranking changes since the previous update. The table is updated daily. The Top 20 RPS Leaders: these are the shares that have exhibited the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the past 10 days. The Bottom 20 RPS Laggards: these shares have shown the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period. JSE All Share sector RPS: In this analysis, we will examine the top 10 and bottom 10 sectors based on RPS, considering the lookback period of the last 10 days. The table is also updated daily. The Top 10 RPS Leading Sectors These sectors have demonstrated the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index during the 10-day lookback period. The Bottom 10 RPS Lagging Sectors Conversely, these sectors have exhibited the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

The market overview serves as a comprehensive snapshot of the financial markets, providing a summary of various asset classes, sectors, and indices. Its primary purpose is to showcase the performance of different financial instruments over a specific period. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

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VIEW RETAINED: THE PQ BULL PHASE TO 36 600 IS PART OF THE LARGER BEAR TREND. The long-held illustrated outlook of meaningful gains off S2 to R2* is materialising. The PQ-defined upside should target R2* before completion, as illustrated. The PQ price action has corrective characteristics when compared to the previous bull trend 2020/21. An eventual 1,2,3,4,5 bear trend to S2 and even S3 is thus expected off P/R2*. R2* is the crucial level for the long-term bearish bias. A definite break of this level will extend gains to at least R3. Summary: Medium-term bullish outlook to R2*. Price action at this level will be pivotal, but currently seems likely to reverse downward. Target and re-assessment levels View negated: R2* Primary trend and targets: Gains to R2*, followed by downside to S2 Prevailing trend and targets: Gains to R2 Technical rating: Medium https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

Introduction In the world of equity market analysis, traders and investors often seek to identify promising investment opportunities by evaluating the performance of various shares. One valuable tool that aids in this analysis is the Relative Rotational Graph (RRG). RRG is a graphical representation that helps investors understand the relative strength and momentum of different shares within a given market or sector. What is a Relative Rotational Graph (RRG)? A Relative Rotational Graph is a visual representation of the relative performance of shares in comparison to a benchmark index or a specific group of shares. The graph plots individual shares as data points and illustrates their movement over time, relative to the benchmark. The positioning of each share on the graph provides crucial insights into its relative strength, momentum, and potential investment opportunities. How RRG Works: The Four Quadrants The RRG chart is divided into four quadrants, each representing different stages of relative performance: Leading (Leading Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are exhibiting strong relative strength and positive momentum compared to the benchmark. They are outperforming the broader market or sector and are considered leaders in terms of price performance. These shares are regarded as potential Profit takes or Holds candidates. Weakening (Weakening Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are experiencing a decline in relative strength compared to the benchmark. While they might still be in an uptrend, their momentum is slowing down, and they may be losing some of their leadership positions. These shares are classified as potential Deteriorating candidates or short-selling. Lagging (Lagging Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are underperforming the benchmark. They are experiencing weak relative strength and may be struggling compared to other shares or the broader market. These shares are classified as potential Avoid candidates. Improving (Improving Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are showing signs of improvement in relative strength, indicating that they are gaining momentum and starting to outperform the benchmark. These shares are considered as potential Buy candidates. Interpreting RRG for Investment Insights When analysing a Relative Rotational Graph, traders and investors can draw several meaningful conclusions: Identifying Leaders and Laggards: RRG helps investors quickly identify which shares are leading the market's upward trends and which are lagging behind. Leading shares in the Leading Quadrant might be attractive investment candidates, while those in the Lagging Quadrant could warrant closer examination to understand potential weaknesses. Spotting Trend Reversals: A changing position of a share on the RRG can signal a potential trend reversal. For example, a share moving from the Weakening Quadrant to the Improving Quadrant may indicate a shift in momentum and an upcoming upward trend. Diversification Insights: RRG can assist in portfolio diversification by highlighting shares that exhibit a low correlation with the benchmark. Adding shares with diverse movement patterns can help reduce overall portfolio risk. Monitoring Sector Rotations: RRG is especially useful for sector rotation strategies, where investors rotate their investments based on the relative strength of sectors. It helps identify which sectors are currently leading or lagging in the market. Limitations of RRG While RRG is a valuable tool, it is essential to recognize its limitations: Historical Performance: RRG is based on past price data and may not always predict future movements accurately. Not a Standalone Indicator: RRG should be used in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools for comprehensive decision-making. Volatility Impact: Highly volatile shares may exhibit erratic movements on the RRG, making interpretation challenging. Conclusion Relative Rotational Graphs provide traders and investors with a powerful visual representation of the relative performance of shares compared to a benchmark index or a group of shares. By understanding the quadrants and interpreting the movements of individual shares, investors can gain valuable insights into market trends, identify potential investment opportunities, and optimise their portfolio allocations. As with any investment analysis tool, it should be used alongside other methods and within the context of a well-thought-out investment strategy. Top 40 constituent RRG chart: The updated RRG chart displayed below compares the individual constituents of the Top 40 index against the index itself. This chart undergoes daily updates, and to enhance clarity, various colour backgrounds are utilised for ease of reference. Leading (Leading Quadrant): Green background. These shares are regarded as potential Profit takes or Holds candidates. Weakening (Weakening Quadrant): Yellow background. These shares are classified as potential Deteriorating candidates or short-selling. Lagging (Lagging Quadrant): Red background. These shares are classified as potential Avoid candidates. Improving (Improving Quadrant): Blue background. These shares are considered potential Buy candidates. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

The Week That Was US equities displayed a mixed performance on Friday, with traders and investors carefully analysing the latest US earnings reports amidst the expiration of various options. The Dow Jones managed to close slightly higher, achieving its 10th consecutive session of gains, representing its most extended winning streak since 2017. On the other hand, the S&P 500 experienced a modest uptick following the previous day's tech-related losses, while the Nasdaq saw a slight decline of 0.2% ahead of the Nasdaq 100 rebalance scheduled for Monday before the market opens. Among the notable stocks, American Express faced a decline of 3.9% after the company maintained its forecast for full-year profit unchanged, leading to revenue falling short of expectations. Nevertheless, earnings came in better than anticipated. Meanwhile, CSX witnessed a drop of 3.7% due to disappointing financial results. Fortunately, last week's US corporate earnings have helped alleviate concerns surrounding the resilience of the US consumer and the overall health of the financial system, particularly in the aftermath of the banking crisis in March. For the week, the Dow and the S&P 500 both recorded gains of 2% and 0.6%, respectively, whereas the Nasdaq experienced a slight dip of 0.5%. On Friday, the JSE FTSE All Share index hovered around the flatline, reaching 76 950 points, reflecting a cautious global market sentiment. Traders closely analysed the recent monetary policy decision where the central bank chose to pause its interest rate hikes but also signalled that this doesn't imply the end of the tightening cycle. Among the top performers was Premier Group Ltd, recording a significant gain of 3.44%, followed by Mr Price with a rise of 2.06%, and Woolworths with a more modest increase of 1.03%. On the other hand, the mining sector experienced losses, with Northam Platinum leading the decline with a drop of 2.57%, followed by Gold Fields with a decrease of 1.91%, AngloGold Ashanti with a decline of 1.81%, and Kumba Iron Ore with a slide of 1.63%. Looking at the overall performance for the past week, the benchmark equity index in South Africa registered a decline of about 1.2%. The Week Ahead In the US, the Fed policymakers are expected to announce a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday, with many traders and investors predicting it will be the last one in the current tightening cycle. This decision comes as inflationary pressures have significantly cooled, and there are indications of a more relaxed labour market. Economic data for the second quarter suggests that the US GDP is projected to have grown by 1.6%, representing the slowest pace of expansion since the recession recorded in the first half of 2022. Additionally, there will be a series of other economic releases. Market participants will closely monitor the US earnings calendar, which includes major tech companies such as Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, along with corporations like 3M, General Motors, Spotify Technology, Verizon Communications, Snap, Visa, AT&T, Automatic Data Processing, Boeing, CME Group, Coca-Cola, QuantumScape, Mastercard, McDonald's, Ford Motor, Intel, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and Procter & Gamble. In Europe, market participants are anticipating the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise its main interest rate by 25bps to 4.25%. They will be particularly attentive to any indications regarding future rate adjustments, especially considering recent dovish remarks from ECB officials and cooling inflation, which have sparked speculations that this might be the last rate hike in the current cycle. Additionally, flash PMI data is expected to show a downturn in the Eurozone's economy during July. In the UK, PMI data is expected to indicate that private sector output expanded at the slowest rate since March, primarily due to a deceleration in service sector activity and another fall in manufacturing production. In Asia, all eyes will be on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision, as steady inflation and relatively robust growth may prompt the central bank to hint at future tweaks to its yield curve control policy. In China, the Communist Party's Politburo is likely to convene and discuss plans aimed at boosting economic recovery. Key Themes for the Week Ahead FOMC Meeting With a 99.6% probability of a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday, the focus of the upcoming Fed meeting lies on whether traders and investors believe this will be the final hike of the current cycle. The money markets have not fully priced in another hike with confidence, so they will be seeking clues to validate their belief that this could be a "one and done" scenario. However, the situation is not entirely clear, as the robust employment landscape and positive signs in the housing market may compel the Fed to refrain from signalling a terminal rate, despite the faster-than-expected decline in consumer and producer prices. If the Fed does indicate the end of their tightening cycle, it could ignite positive risk sentiment, prompting dip buyers to re-enter Wall Street and driving the Nasdaq 100 above 16 000. Additionally, it might put downward pressure on the US dollar, leading to rallies in commodity currencies and gold prices. Conversely, such a signal from the Fed could also result in Fed Fund futures pricing in with more certainty the possibility of a rate cut in Q1. This raises concerns about allowing these expectations to gain momentum, even if they are well-grounded, as the Fed aims to keep inflation expectations under control. Therefore, market participants should also remain vigilant for a scenario where the hike is ambiguously hawkish, potentially causing the US dollar to strengthen while putting downward pressure on Wall Street, currencies and gold. In any case, the Fed meeting is likely to be the most significant event in the financial markets this week, with its outcome holding the potential to shape various asset classes and risk sentiment. US PCE inflation, Q2 GDP The FOMC meeting holds significant importance for the US, and the subsequent GDP and CPI inflation reports can play a crucial role in shaping expectations for the Fed's August meeting. If the Fed adopts a cautious approach and maintains a more hawkish tone, a weak GDP and inflation report could swiftly undermine this stance. Consequently, markets might start pricing in the possibility of a pause in August's rate hikes and increase their conviction of a potential rate cut in 2024. ECB Meeting The situation with the European Central Bank (ECB) appears to mirror that of the Fed; it is highly likely that the ECB will raise rates by 25bps, but the real question is whether they will do so in September. Some ECB officials have indicated that another rate hike beyond the upcoming one is not a guaranteed outcome. One official even suggested that they prefer to avoid a recession and may take a more cautious approach. The ECB has a reputation for being somewhat cryptic and not always straightforward in their communications during meetings. Similar to the Fed, they are probably wary of signalling a definitive end to rate hikes or anything too conclusive, especially while inflation remains higher than desired (as evidenced by core CPI surpassing expectations this week). As a result, those seeking definitive answers at the upcoming meeting may find themselves disappointed, as the ECB is likely to lean towards a "data dependency" approach, using incoming data to guide their future decisions. BOJ Meeting In January 2016, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) surprised markets by cutting rates from 0.1% to -0.1%, and they have remained at this level ever since. It is highly improbable that they will hike rates on Friday, as they may need to either expand their yield curve control (YCC) band or abandon it altogether before considering rate hikes. There was some speculation building up that they might take such action this week, but the recent softer-than-expected inflation report has likely dampened those expectations. The BOJ's quarterly outlook will be closely monitored to see if inflation projections have been revised higher, as it could signal a shift towards dropping their ultra-loose policy. However, given the recent subdued inflation data, it seems less likely that they will make any significant policy changes, which could explain the gradual uptick in USD/JPY. Nevertheless, if the markets receive a negative inflation report from Tokyo on Thursday (a leading indicator for nationwide CPI), it may prompt renewed bets of potential BOJ action, leading to a stronger yen and weaker USD/JPY. US Earnings Earnings will be massive this week as we get updates from 3M, AbbVie, Alphabet, Airbus, AstraZeneca, AT&T, Barclays, BASF, Biogen, BNP Paribas, Boeing, Boston Scientific, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Chevron, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Comcast, Exxon, Ford Motor, General Electric, General Motors, GSK, Hermes International, Honeywell International, Intel, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nestle, PG&E, Procter & Gamble, Raytheon Technologies, Samsung Electronics, STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments, Thermo Fisher Scientific, UniCredit, Unilever, Union Pacific, Verizon Communications, Visa and Volkswagen. According to data from FactSet, an impressive 74% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far have surpassed expectations. This strong performance in corporate earnings is generating a sense of optimism regarding the possibility of a soft landing for the economy. South Africa The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to halt its tightening cycle but emphasised that this is not the definitive end. However, it is probable that this pause will hold, given that both headline and core inflation have comfortably settled within the 3-6% target range. The central bank now plans to base future decisions on data-driven analysis. City of Joburg civil engineer and consultant, Johan La Grange, has officially confirmed that the explosion which devastated a significant portion of Bree Street in the Johannesburg CBD was caused by a pure gas leak. This revelation comes just days after the tragic incident occurred. After months of speculation, it has been confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be attending the August BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa) summit in South Africa. This decision serves as a 'get out of jail free' card for Pretoria, as it eliminates the need to confront the challenging diplomatic and legal dilemma posed by his potential presence at the event. Economic Calendar In the upcoming economic calendar for this week, several significant events are scheduled to take place. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

The market overview serves as a comprehensive snapshot of the financial markets, providing a summary of various asset classes, sectors, and indices. Its primary purpose is to showcase the performance of different financial instruments over a specific period. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer