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  • 🛢️Take Profit. Brent Crude Oil +50% vs Our Buy Re-Entry Range (Medium Term Traders)

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Brent Crude Oil Current Date/Time: Friday, 11 September at 08h29 (South African Time) Did you also notice it's rallying in line with the price action model which was highlighted at the time? See the 5 to 8 week reading which stated that there was a 'probability of a small rebound' Previous Post (Sunday 28 June) 🟩🛢️At/Approaching Buy/Add Range. Look For Lower Levels Before Tactical Rebound + See Price Action Model Published on Sunday 28 June, for Monday 29 June. Please note: Due to unforeseen circumstances, I will not have access to my laptop on Monday 29 June. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Capitec Ltd: Actionable Areas

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Via our watchlist. This is an update to our 13 July note in which we looked for a breakdown in the CPI share price. We also consider the next best probability buy re-entry range(s). As per our expectations of the price action, Capitec broke below the trigger level, rebounded and has started to roll over to multi-week lows. Thursday's sharp sell-off was triggered it's trading statement, which may not have met the market's expectations. If you're an active trader, looking go capitalize on short to medium term price movement, what are the next best levels to engage? The chart below highlights 2 levels traders looking to capitalize on potentially oversold conditions, provided institutional support is evident at the time. For now, CPI is a SELL ON RALLY until the price finds support. Previous Post (13 July) 💡Capitec Bank: Have You Looked At It From This Angle? Placing It On Your Radar If you're a trader with access to the full market depth (bids/offers), then I'd suggest monitoring it closely for a evidence of above-average offers, which may suggest the start of some selling pressure. Analyzing the daily chart reveals a potential double top formation that could open an opportunity for short-sellers and subsequently, lower levels. The structure is similar to the previous 'double top' technical formation which was triggered by an increase in volume as the price breached the incline support. Currently, R4669 acts as ultra short term support, meaning that for the idea to trigger, we need to see a break of this support (on elevated volume). An alternative scenario is the share putting in a 1 or 2 day rally which fails to hold before moving back below the trend line. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Reinet Investments: Sharp Sell-Off Into Major Long Term Support

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Via our watchlist - placing it on your radar. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 🛜US 10-Year Bond Yield: Potential For Consolidation, Then Bearish Reversal. See Price Action Model Signal

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. One year ago (September 2025) we called for higher bond yields based on the price action model. Now, the same tool is pointing to extreme overbought levels for the US 10-year bond yield and the potential for a retracement (lower levels) in yields. From current levels, yields are likely to trade slightly higher, then consolidate (in a potential top formation) before retracing toward the medium term mean. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 🛜🟥4x Sell/Reduce Signals (Update)

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Update: All JSE Gold Shares down sharply since Monday 24 August (note published on Sunday 23 August). 98% of our content has always been free. Our research is open, which means that whether you are a client or not, you can access our research, including our trade ideas. If you have been reading our research but use another trading services provider/broker to execute the trades, why not consider moving you trading account to Unum Capital? 🔒To access the ticker, sign up with Unum Capital. To get started email lester@unum.co.za. Active, existing clients can request and access the ticker by contacting lester@unum.co.za 🔒To access the ticker, sign up with Unum Capital. To get started email lester@unum.co.za. Active, existing clients can request and access the ticker by contacting lester@unum.co.za 🔒To access the ticker, sign up with Unum Capital. To get started email lester@unum.co.za. Active, existing clients can request and access the ticker by contacting lester@unum.co.za 🔒To access the ticker, sign up with Unum Capital. To get started email lester@unum.co.za. Active, existing clients can request and access the ticker by contacting lester@unum.co.za About the Price Action Model: A Powerful Tool For Active Traders The price action model is a proprietary non-A.I., excel-based tool. Here Are 5 Real-Time Ideas Which Previously Helped Clients Manage Risk and Uncover Opportunities. Idea Number #1: Valterra Platinum > https://www.unum.capital/post/val1208 Idea Number #2: Harmony Gold > https://www.unum.capital/post/har1108 Idea Number #3: Thungela Resources > https://www.unum.capital/post/tga0804 Idea Number #4: Sasol > https://www.unum.capital/post/solrebo Idea Number #5: Nedbank > https://www.unum.capital/post/ned0603 THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Take Profit: AngloGold Ashanti (-15% vs Sell Re-Entry Range)

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. The market gave us several days of opportunity to sell into the re-entry range. If you used the highs, or near the highs, then you are in the money by 15%. Medium term traders can consider taking profit. Opportunity originally highlighted here (13 August) > https://www.unum.capital/post/ang1308 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Momentum & Capital Flow Report: Breakouts, Capitulations & Risks

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Disclosure: The content below has been generated using an artificial intelligence tool (based my own inputs/data). 1. Aggressive Mining Breakouts: Triple-aligned, strong momentum is driving immediate buy continuations across the diversified mining giants as global capital rotates into hard assets. (Glencore - GLN, Anglo American - AGL, BHP Group - BHG, Alphamin - APH) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Highly sensitive to global macroeconomic shocks; a sudden reversal in China’s demand narrative or a broader global recession could violently snap these overextended micro trends back to their mean. 2. Precious Metals Resurgence: Gold and PGMs are experiencing synchronized institutional accumulation, breaking out into established, high-conviction bull trends. (AngloGold Ashanti - ANG, Gold Fields - GFI, Harmony - HAR, Impala - IMP, Northam - NPH, Valterra - VAL, Tharisa - THA) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: A sudden hawkish shift in US Federal Reserve rate expectations leading to severe US Dollar strength, which would mechanically suppress gold and PGM pricing, stalling the breakout momentum. 3. Banking Sector Divergence (The Outperformer): While the broader domestic credit sector fractures, select banking capital is consolidating into a singular, triple-aligned upside breakout. (Nedbank - NED) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: "Guilt by association." If the broader domestic banking index continues to aggressively break down, the localized liquidity propping up this single outlier could easily evaporate as sector-wide ETF outflows take hold. 4. Banking Sector Divergence (The Breakdown): In direct contrast, other major domestic banks are flashing early bear trend warnings, showing head-and-shoulders distribution as micro momentum fails against the macro trend. (Absa - ABG, Standard Bank - SBK) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Shorting into a heavily shorted sector; an unexpected and aggressive interest rate cut by the SA Reserve Bank could immediately ignite a vicious relief rally, destroying bearish conviction. 5. Investment & Holdco Surges: Specialized investment vehicles and corporate holdcos are catching aggressive bids, confirming established bullish momentum across all timeframes. (Investec Ltd/Plc - INL/INP, Sabvest - SBP, KAP Limited - KAP, CA Sales - CAA) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Widening discount-to-NAV (Net Asset Value). The charts are pricing in perfection, but if the underlying subsidiary companies misstep on earnings, the holdco premium will rapidly collapse. 6. Defensive Healthcare Breakouts: Institutional flows are heavily targeting defensive healthcare operations, triggering immediate aggression and cup-and-handle breakout patterns. (Aspen - APN, Life Healthcare - LHC) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Regulatory blindspots. Despite pristine technicals, legislative shifts surrounding National Health Insurance (NHI) or sudden margin compression in pharmaceutical supply chains could derail the defensive premium. 7. Telecom Expansion: Major telecommunication networks are seeing a rapid acceleration in price action, locking in strong macro anchors and breaking out of previous consolidations. (MTN Group - MTN, Vodacom - VOD, Blu Label - BLU) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Currency devaluation in rest-of-Africa operations (specifically Nigeria) and heavy capital expenditure cycles could fundamentally override the current technical accumulation. 8. Energy & Renewables Surging: Both traditional coal and renewable energy counters are firing immediate aggression buy continuations, supported by flawless triple-alignment. (Exxaro - EXX, Thungela - TGA, Greencoat Renewables - GCT) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: A sudden drop in global seaborne thermal coal pricing or unexpected shifts in global ESG mandates forcing rigid institutional divestment from fossil-heavy portfolios. 9. Real Estate Pockets of Alpha: Despite broad commercial property weakness, a highly specific group of REITs is managing to break out into triple-aligned, established bull trends. (Fortress B - FFB, Fairvest A - FTA, Hyprop - HYP, Lighthouse - LTE) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: A "higher-for-longer" domestic interest rate environment that inflates debt servicing costs and aggressively compresses property yields, fundamentally invalidating the technical breakouts. 10. Consumer Education Breakouts: Education providers are demonstrating pristine structural health, printing early and late-stage bull trend breakouts. (ADvTECH - ADH, Stadio - SDO) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Exhaustion of the target demographic's disposable income; prolonged inflation could eventually force middle-class consumers to downscale from private to public education, capping growth. 11. Travel & Leisure Outperformance: Breaking away from broader hospitality neutrality, specific hotel and gaming operators are printing aggressive triple-aligned cup-and-handle breakouts. (Southern Sun - SSU) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: High sensitivity to discretionary spending cliffs. Any macro shock that severely curtails domestic travel or global tourism traffic will instantly break this technical structure. 12. Parabolic Overextension Warning: Niche renewable assets are flashing terminal velocity, running completely parabolic on the micro timeframe, warning of immediate short-term exhaustion. (Montauk Renewables - MKR) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Extreme mean reversion. Executing capital at these parabolic peaks carries massive drawdown risk, as the asset is statistically overdue for a violent technical correction to digest the vertical move. 13. Food & Drug Retail Deep Capitulation: Major retailers have been indiscriminately dumped into extreme oversold territory, printing double-bottom capitulation bases ripe for scale-in execution. (Clicks - CLS, Dis-Chem - DCP, Spar - SPP) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Catching a falling knife. If the local consumer crunch is structural rather than cyclical, these "mathematical bottoms" will fail, leading to prolonged value traps and further downward drift. 14. Apparel Retail Deep Capitulation: High-end discretionary apparel has washed out mathematically on the charts, offering a highly speculative scale-in floor as seller exhaustion peaks. (Woolworths - WHL) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Margin destruction due to inventory build-ups. Technical exhaustion does not prevent further fundamental downgrades if port logistics or supply chain costs severely impact upcoming earnings. 15. Automotive Retail Capitulation: Following severe distribution, niche automotive retail has flushed into micro-oversold levels, triggering a deep-value capitulation reversal. (We Buy Cars - WBC) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Persistent high borrowing costs. The technical reversal assumes the worst is priced in, but if vehicle financing remains fundamentally unaffordable for the middle class, the floor will break. 16. Defensive Food Scale-In Opportunities: Broad weakness in consumer staples has forced specific defensive food producers into deep-value, double-bottom scale-in zones. (AVI Limited - AVI) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Sticky food inflation and lingering supply chain pressures squeezing operating margins for much longer than the technical models currently anticipate. 17. Tech Giant Distribution: Global tech and internet holdcos are suffering from synchronized weakness across micro and medium timeframes, establishing firm bear trends and capital flight. (Naspers - NPN, Prosus - PRX, Bytes - BYI, PowerFleet - PWR) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: A sudden, aggressive fundamental rebound in Tencent/Chinese markets or a massive global Nasdaq rally could spark a violent short-squeeze, destroying bearish positions. 18. Property Sector Bleed: The broader real estate landscape remains bogged down by persistent distribution, cementing established downward bear channels. (Stor-Age - SSS, Sirius - SRE, Supermarket Income - SRI, Shaftesbury - SHC) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Premature bottom-fishing. Trying to accumulate these assets for their yield before central banks definitively signal a rate-cutting cycle exposes capital to significant opportunity cost and capital decay. 19. General Apparel & Food Weakness: The majority of the discretionary and staple retail sector remains trapped in synchronized downward drift with no signs of institutional accumulation. (Foschini - TFG, Truworths - TRU, Mr Price - MRP, Pick N Pay - PIK, RCL Foods - RCL) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Classic value traps. What looks historically "cheap" technically can easily drift lower as strict institutional mandates force continuous selling of underperforming domestic assets. 20. Resting Macro Bulls: A large swath of financial, insurance, and property giants are safely digesting previous massive gains, holding tight, neutral bull flags while keeping their strong monthly macro trends fully intact. (Discovery - DSY, JSE Limited - JSE, Attacq - ATT, Burstone - BTN, Emira - EMI) ⚠️ Risk to Setup: Consolidation failure. If broader market sentiment turns intensely risk-off, these resting patterns will fail to break upward and instead flush downward, invalidating the macro trend. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Sasol: The Reward-To-Risk From Current Levels

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Over the 14 weeks, since our video comment on Friday, 29 May, Sasol has rallied by 40% (R164 to R232). In case you missed the original video it, watch it here > https://www.unum.capital/post/sol2905 Disclosure: The content below has been generated using an artificial intelligence tool (based my own inputs/data). What is the reward-to-risk from current levels? ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ Sasol Limited [SOL] 23,275 ZAC. 🟩 Bullish breakout 🟧 Overheating ⚠️ Mean reversion risk. What Can Go Right From Here: Base Case: The asset digests its parabolic 9.85% daily surge by consolidating in a high, tight flag above the 21,500 ZAC breakout level. Bull Case: Relentless institutional accumulation ignores overbought conditions, forcing price into a vertical short-squeeze toward the 28,000 ZAC structural supply zone. Bear Case: Exhaustion at the absolute top triggers a violent mean-reversion flush back down to retest the 20,000 ZAC psychological support. 7D: Overbought 7W: Strong 7M: Strong Overbought Extremes & Mean Reversion Risks: Sasol Limited [SOL] is currently printing heavily Overbought daily momentum readings, warning of severe near-term overheating. While its intermediate and long-term macro structures have staged powerful breakouts into the Strong momentum tier, the vertical daily angle of attack leaves the asset highly exposed to a rapid, tactical pullback to the mean. Current Action: At/approaching sell/reduce 🟥 | Impending Action: Buy on deeper pullback 🔵 Key Technical Observations Daily Timeframe (1D): SOL has executed a massive, highly impulsive breakout, gaining 9.85% in a single session. The aggressive vertical angle has pushed the momentum regime into overbought territory, indicating a parabolic extension away from all short-term tactical moving averages. Weekly Timeframe (1W): The intermediate chart confirms a powerful V-shape bottoming structure. Price has cleanly breached the critical 20,000 ZAC historical resistance floor with extreme conviction. The 7W RSI tracks perfectly (Rating: Strong), supporting the legitimacy of this breakout without yet triggering over-extension warnings on the weekly scale. Monthly Timeframe (1M): After suffering a devastating multi-year bear phase, SOL is cementing a decisive macro trend reversal. Buoyed by a 19.36% MTD surge, the 7M RSI has rapidly accelerated to 'Strong', transitioning the asset from a structural decay profile into an active secular turnaround. 🟧 Base Case: Sasol enters a choppy, high-level consolidation range over the next 1 to 4 weeks as the primary uptrend encounters overhead profit-taking. While the general medium-term trend remains tilted upward, immediate momentum slows to work off stretched 7-day overbought extremes. Price action oscillates between overhead swing resistance and dynamic moving average support near the 8-EMA, allowing moving averages to catch up and absorbing active two-way flow before establishing a decisive directional continuation. Risks to Base Case: The presence of localized overextension could trigger an abrupt break of range boundaries—either through a rapid, volatility-driven push deeper into overbought territory or an aggressive sell-off that slices through the 8-EMA faster than anticipated. Risks to Immediate Buy/Long Positions: Shorter-term conditions are flashing overbought readings with an unattractive risk-to-reward ratio. Chasing current price levels leaves fresh long positions heavily vulnerable to sharp buyer exhaustion and an immediate mean-reversion retest of dynamic trend buffers. Risks to Immediate Sell/Short Positions: Counter-trend short positions face significant squeeze risk given the underlying very bullish 14-day trend; shorts require strict risk management and tight trailing stops, as buyers could aggressively defend the prior session close or 8-EMA. The overarching tactical posture aligns with 🟥 At/approaching sell/reduce — Immediate/Urgent, with secondary positioning deferred to 🟢 Buy on pullback — Pending. The explicit guidance across the price action model warns that risk-to-reward is currently unattractive for new long exposure. Market participants should avoid chasing extended levels, lean on tactical short setups only upon a confirmed failure to hold prior sessions, and wait for an orderly pullback into the prior session close or rising 8-EMA accumulation zone before re-establishing primary long exposure. Previous Post (Tuesday, 08 September 2026) Sasol - as mentioned in the video at the time, look for an overshoot of the buy re-entry range (R164 to R175), which did occur, followed by the rebound. (Chart updated to reflect the price as of the close on Wednesday 09 September.) Previous Post (29 May): 🎥Video: Sasol Sasol: During December 2025, January 2026 and February 2026, clients of Unum Capital were alerted to opportunities in Sasol (all below R120), with an the upside target of R175. This level has was exceeded, with the share trading near the highs of ~R232. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Prosus: An Attractive Range For Building A Position

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Via our watchlist. This note considers the best course of action for the instrument from current levels i.e. the next best-probability actionable areas for active traders. While it continues to drift lower, driven by institutional selling pressure, Prosus has reached our buy re-entry range. Is this the exact bottom? I don't know however, this level represents a much more appealing re-accumulation range vs what we have seen in prior months. From current levels, we need to see positive candle structure start to develop, which would lay the foundation for a base and potential bullish reversal. Just under one year ago (30 September 2025), we highlighted the downside risk in the share, with a note suggesting that traders prepare for a pullback. Link to note > https://www.unum.capital/post/propre Previous Post (Friday, 22 May) JSE Tech Share: Key Range = R660 to R685 🟥Weak Trend 🟩Approaching Support (Provisional Buy Re-Entry Range) Analyst's Price Action Model: A.I-Expanded View on the above Price Action Model: READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Richemont

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Via our watchlist. This note considers the best course of action for the instrument from current levels i.e. the next best-probability actionable areas for active traders. 🟧 Base Case: Richemont enters a choppy, low-conviction consolidation and basing phase across the next 1 to 4 weeks. While the share has experienced persistent weakness and sustained selling pressure, stretched momentum introduces the probability of an initial small rebound. However, overhead supply from trapped buyers caps immediate upside progress, muting the bounce into a rotational holding pattern. Price oscillates around the 50-EMA zone as the market digests recent distribution and works off short-term oversold readings before establishing a clearer directional bias. Risks to Base Case: Elevated selling velocity could easily overpower the anticipated relief bounce, turning what appears to be a stabilization attempt into a continued downside volatility expansion straight through key moving average support. Risks to Immediate Buy/Long Positions: The immediate downward impulse carries high bearish momentum across both the 7-day and 14-day regimes. Stepping in before an explicit reclaim of the 50-EMA risks catching a falling knife during an active capitulation phase. Risks to Immediate Sell/Short Positions: With the 7-day trend stretched into approaching oversold extremes, late short-sellers face elevated asymmetric risk of a sharp, sudden short-covering squeeze if the model's projected rebound materializes unexpectedly. The overarching tactical posture aligns with 🔵 Buy on deeper pullback — Delayed/Weakest Buy, with immediate execution conditional on a clear 🟢 Buy on pullback — Pending setup. The model highlights aggressive short-term selling and mandates waiting for lower timeframes to stabilize. Rather than buying early into high bearish momentum, market participants should wait for an orderly test at or just below the 50-EMA, requiring a definitive reclaim of that dynamic level to validate a tactical rebound buy. Previous Post (15 July): 🟩One Share, Two Alerts and a 40% Rally. Move Your Trading Account To Unum Capital Today RICHEMONT - see annotations on chart - flagged 22 March and 10 May. Move your trading account to Unum Capital today. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Sibanye Stillwater

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. This note considers the best course of action for Sibanye Stillwater from current levels i.e. the next best-probability actionable areas for active traders. Disclosure: The content below has been generated using an artificial intelligence tool (based my own inputs/data). 🟧 Base Case: SSW transitions into a steady, range-bound consolidation phase over the next 1 to 4 weeks to digest its recent gains. Lower-timeframe weakness caps immediate upside velocity, leading to rotational price action around current levels while higher-timeframe trends remain intact. The counter oscillates between overhead resistance and the dynamic 8-EMA / 21-EMA cushion, absorbing supply and allowing moving averages to catch up before the stock resolves into its next sustained trend move. Risks to Base Case: The ongoing consolidation could see boundaries fail prematurely—either via a rapid resumption of buying that bypasses the pause and pushes into overbought extremes, or via a sharp market-wide dip that slices through dynamic support faster than anticipated. Risks to Immediate Buy/Long Positions: Shorter-term momentum exhibits localized fatigue near swing highs. Bidding market prices impulsively rather than waiting for dynamic moving average tests risks buying directly into a mean-reversion retest and taking on unnecessary drawdown. Risks to Immediate Short/Sell Positions: Shorting an instrument supported by strong and very bullish higher-timeframe trends carries heavy trend-squeeze risk; any dip into the 8-EMA or 21-EMA buy zone could encounter aggressive institutional demand, trapping premature sellers. The overarching tactical posture aligns decisively with 🟢 Buy on pullback — Pending. The explicit guidance across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons points to buyers maintaining control despite lower-timeframe softness. Rather than chasing current levels, market participants should allow near-term weakness to play out and look to accumulate selectively as price tests the dynamic 8-EMA to 21-EMA band or the prior session close. Most recently, SSW was presented as a buy/long re-entry to clients of Unum Capital and is higher by 60% vs the buy re-entry range. The original and follow-up charts are shown below. The link to the original post (Sunday 07 June) is as follows > https://www.unum.capital/post/ssw0806 SSW Before (Sunday 07 June) SSW After (Current) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal shaded areas on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. [Legends🔒🎥💡🟥🟩🟧 🖥️ ⭐⭐⭐☆☆]

  • Trading Gold Fields

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. This note considers the best course of action for Gold Fields from current levels i.e. the next best-probability actionable areas for active traders. Disclosure: The content below has been generated using an artificial intelligence tool (based my own inputs/data). 🟧 Base Case: GFI shifts into a steady, range-bound consolidation phase over the next 1 to 4 weeks to digest its recent advance. Lower-timeframe weakness dampens immediate upside momentum, prompting a pause around current levels while higher-timeframe trends remain structurally intact. Price action oscillates between overhead swing resistance and the rising 8-EMA and 21-EMA moving averages, allowing dynamic buffers to catch up and absorbing rotational flow before committing to a decisive trend expansion. Risks to Base Case: The ongoing consolidation could see boundaries breached prematurely—either sparked by a rapid surge that forces an immediate breakout above current levels, or through a broader risk-off move that drives price cleanly beneath the 21-EMA cushion. Risks to New Buy/Long Positions: Shorter-term momentum is showing signs of localized fatigue. Entering aggressively at market rather than waiting for dynamic moving average tests leaves late longs exposed to a sharp shakeout down into the lower bounds of the buy range. Risks to New Short/Sell Positions: Shorting an asset backed by strong and very bullish higher-timeframe regimes carries significant trend-squeeze risk; any pullback into the 8-EMA or 21-EMA could attract aggressive dip-buyers, quickly punishing early bears. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal shaded areas on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. [Legends🔒🎥💡🟥🟩🟧 🖥️ ⭐⭐⭐☆☆]

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