top of page

Search this site

7051 results found

  • 🟩+60%. JSE Commodity Share Provides Outsized Gains For Unum Capital Clients

    Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Thank you for your interest in our research. Year-to-date, we have published over 750 research notes. These research insights help clients: (1) manage risks and (2) uncover opportunities, with the ultimate goal of helping to allocate capital to opportunities that offer the best reward-to-risk for a client's time frame. If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk, why not consider making us your trading services provider? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za. Alternatively, Sign Up Here: https://tradedesk.co/tenant/Unum/signup 🟩+60% since the (video) alert on 26 August. For clients who participated, or have held over the long term, the share has provide outsized gains. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Take Full Profits on Novo Nordisk: Running +30% (Reported Earnings This Morning)

    Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Friday, 27 February): Global Idea: Novo Nordisk - Early Buy Re-Entry Trigger; Lower Levels Expected Before Potential Rebound Buy at 238.60 or lower Stop-loss: 198.00 Target(s): 350.00 Code: NOVO_B Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 🎥Video: Watchlist (Preview)

    Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Spot Gold: Updated Outlook, Risks & Probabilities

    Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Analyst: Disclosure: The commentary below was generated using an artificial intelligence tool, based on the analyst's own data. Spot Gold is currently navigating a protracted digestion phase within its broader secular uptrend. While the macro Mid Term momentum has successfully reset from historical extremes on the Monthly chart, the Weekly and Daily execution timeframes remain trapped in a choppy, neutral consolidation. This synchronized cooling across all timeframes signals that neither buyers nor sellers have the immediate conviction to force a new directional trend. Because the underlying macro cycle remains structurally sound but immediate tactical indicators offer zero directional edge, the system triggers a ↔️ Neutral signal, favoring patience while waiting for structural accumulation levels to be tested or a definitive momentum breakout. CLASSIFICATION: ↔️ Neutral MOMENTUM PROFILE Daily Chart (Tactical): Mid Term Momentum is NEUTRAL. Following a steep corrective flush from the recent highs, the tactical momentum has rebounded but stalled squarely in the Neutral band. This confirms a lack of immediate upside velocity and suggests the asset is range-bound as it continues to seek a definitive tactical floor. Weekly Chart (Swing): Mid Term Momentum is NEUTRAL. On the weekly scale, momentum has retreated sharply from its previous secular peak and is now positioned firmly in the Neutral tier. This indicates an ongoing "regime transition" where the previous parabolic swing has terminated, and the market is actively absorbing overhead supply through sideways, choppy price action. Monthly Chart (Macro): Mid Term Momentum is NEUTRAL. The secular view has undergone a highly constructive cooling period. Monthly momentum, which was previously pinned deeply in the Overbought tier during the explosive run above $5,000, has now washed back into the upper limits of the Neutral band. Historically, this deep reset is required to build the foundational energy for the next macro expansion leg. CONTRARIAN ASYMMETRY Distribution Zone (Tactical Short/Reduce): The $4,900 – $5,100 range acts as a heavy, high-probability distribution ceiling representing the recent sequence of lower-highs. Rallies into this supply cluster are mathematically susceptible to failure given the broader absence of underlying daily and weekly momentum. Accumulation Zone (Contrarian Long): The optimal zone to scale into long-term core positions sits significantly lower, in the $4,000 – $4,200 range. This aligns with the recent capitulation wicks and major structural breakout bases that continue to act as primary foundational support. CORE THESIS Spot Gold is currently in a "Macro Digestion & Base-Building" phase. With the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Mid Term momentum indicators all resting in the Neutral tier simultaneously, the statistical probability favors continued sideways chop as the longer-term moving averages catch up to price. Strategically, this favors ignoring the noise in the middle of the current range (near $4,660), fading tactical strength toward $5,000+, and patiently waiting for a momentum "hook" near the $4,100 neighborhood to initiate fresh secular long exposure. WHAT CAN CHANGE? The current primary thesis is a Cyclical Consolidation within a Secular Bull Market. Here is what would change this outlook: Technical Triggers (Shift to Bullish Resurgence): If price reclaims and closes weekly above $5,100 with the Mid Term momentum shifting aggressively back into the Strong or High Bullish Momentum tiers, it would signal that the macro correction is complete and a retest of the all-time highs is underway. Fundamental / Macro Triggers: A sudden, systemic re-acceleration of global inflation, aggressive central bank rate cuts, or a massive geopolitical de-dollarization event would justify a sudden technical re-rating and force an immediate breakout regardless of the neutral technical setup. Technical Triggers (Confirmation of Deeper Flush): A weekly close below $4,000 would confirm a structural failure of the current basing attempt, likely triggering a cascade liquidation toward the much deeper $3,600 primary support baseline. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Breadth Report

    Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Analyst: Disclosure: The commentary below was generated using an artificial intelligence tool, based on the analyst's own data. 1. The Massive Neutral Bottleneck (⬜ Neutral) Market breadth is severely paralyzed. Nearly 40% of the active JSE universe is currently trapped in the ⬜ Neutral tier. This massive bottleneck confirms that institutional capital is parked, digesting conflicting 1-month and 6-month timelines while awaiting a definitive macro catalyst to dictate the next primary market leg. 2. Real Estate Paralyzed by Macro Duration The REIT and property sector is the epicenter of the breadth bottleneck. Heavyweights like GRT, HYP, EQU, and VKE are entirely devoid of trend velocity. Capital here is acting purely as a cash proxy, refusing to break out or break down until global central banks provide absolute clarity on the interest rate cutting cycle. 3. Bifurcation in the Diversified Miners Breadth within the resources complex has completely fractured. GLN is severely overbought (🟥), AGL requires a deep pullback (🔵), S32 is accumulating healthily (🟦), and KIO is locked in structural distribution (🟧). Sector-wide ETFs tracking “Miners” will flatline; exposure must be granular and stock-specific. 4. The Illusion of Financial Strength While niche financial conglomerates like SBP (🟥) and wealth managers like KST (🔵) are driving the tape higher, broad financial breadth is surprisingly weak. Traditional asset managers (N91, NY1, CML) and major life insurers (OMU) are bleeding capital, masking a fragile underbelly in the broader financial sector. 5. Domestic Infrastructure Accumulation While consumer-facing sectors struggle, real-economy physical infrastructure is showing broad, healthy accumulation. PPC (🟢) and RBX (🟦) are capturing steady inflows, proving that order books tied to physical cap-ex are currently viewed as safer havens than consumer wallets. 6. Telecoms Establish Breadth Dominance Telecommunications is one of the few sectors exhibiting unified, positive breadth across the board. MTN (🟢), VOD (🟦), and TKG (🟦) are all participating in a healthy, sector-wide capital inflow, supported by defensive yields and demographic tailwinds. 7. Process Industries at Absolute Extremes The Process Industries sector is tearing market breadth apart at the seams. Chemical giants like SOL (🟥) and OMN (🟢) are soaking up massive cyclical bids, while the exact same macro environment is pushing paper and packaging players like MNP (🟠) and SAP (🟩) into structural capitulation. 8. Major Banks Decelerating The core foundational breadth of the JSE—the major banks—is losing its upward slope. While SBK and CPI maintain continuation trends (🟦), ABG, FSR, and NED have slipped into the ⬜ Neutral indecision zone. The core engine is cooling off, heavily capping the JSE’s upside potential. 9. Healthcare’s Narrow Leadership Breadth in healthcare is highly concentrated. APN (🟦) is carrying the sector with a massive structural breakout, while hospital groups like NTC (🔵) take a breather and LHC (⬜) flatlines. Without broad participation, the sector relies entirely on APN’s operational execution. 10. The End of the “Everything Rally” The ultimate takeaway from current market breadth is fragmentation. The unified, index-wide lifting of assets seen late last year has officially ended. With broad Beta tracking sideways in the Neutral zone, the market has transitioned aggressively into a strict, stock-picker’s environment where Alpha is exclusively found at the extreme upper and lower edges of the matrix Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Momentum Report

    Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Analyst: Disclosure: The commentary below was generated using an artificial intelligence tool, based on the analyst's own data. 1. Maximum Extension and Exhaustion (🟥 At/approaching sell/reduce) The momentum algorithm is flagging severe parabolic exhaustion in highly concentrated pockets. GLN, SOL, GND, WVR, and ADH have compounded aggressively across the 1M, 3M, and 6M horizons. The velocity here has outpaced underlying structural fundamentals, triggering a mechanical mandate to harvest these premiums before institutional profit-taking forces a mean reversion. 2. The Structural “Cooling” Phase (🔵 Buy on deeper pullback) High-flying names like AGL, DSY, REM, and NTC have snapped their short-term momentum lines after massive 6-month expansions. Buying standard 1-month dips is no longer quantifiably safe here; these assets require a much deeper, lower-volatility washout to digest their recent structural gains before reloading. 3. The Core Compounding Engine (🟦 Buy - continuation) The safest and most reliable momentum on the JSE currently resides in the 🟦 tier. Stocks like APN, INP, SHP, and BOX are exhibiting “staircase accumulation.” This is low-volatility, parallel momentum where institutional buyers are calmly absorbing supply without causing parabolic, untradeable spikes. 4. High-Beta Cyclical Explosions Within the strong continuation tiers, idiosyncratic high-beta assets are printing aggressive mid-term velocity. APH (Tin) and KAP (Industrial Logistics) are dominating the tape with massive structural re-ratings, ignoring the broader indecision in the Top 40 index. 5. Isolating the “Dead-Cat” Bounce (🟧 & 🟨) The system isolates deceptive 1-month short-covering rallies. Names like BYI, PHP, NPN, and PRX are showing minor short-term stabilization, but their 3-month and 6-month structural baselines remain deeply negative. The velocity mandate remains clear: fade these rallies. 6. Bearish Acceleration in Discretionary (🟠 Sell on sharp rally) Downside momentum is actively accelerating in the retail turnaround space. MRP, PIK, and TRU are trapped in vicious downtrends where every timeframe prints negative velocity. Any sharp rallies here are strictly exit liquidity events for trapped capital. 7. Total Liquidity Vacuums (🟩 At/approaching buy/add) True capitulation requires a total absence of relief buying across all measured intervals. CLS, SPP, SAP, TFG, and ISO have hit this floor. The negative velocity has stretched the rubber band to a point where any marginally “less bad” fundamental news will trigger a violent, high-probability short-squeeze. 8. Sector-Agnostic Momentum Divergence Traditional sector-based momentum trading is dead. In Retail, SHP is compounding steadily in the 🟦 tier, while its direct peer PIK is collapsing in the 🟠 tier. Stock-picking based strictly on individual asset velocity is currently the only reliable alpha generator. 9. Software & Global Tech Decay The momentum profile for global tech proxies and software solutions is structurally broken. Beyond the Tencent proxies, names like PWR and BYI are showing severe mid-term momentum decay, confirming that capital is rotating out of digital assets and into physical/industrial cash generators. 10. The Quantitative Spread Extrema The performance spread between the 🟥 Extreme Overbought winners and the 🟩 Oversold Capitulation losers is at a multi-month high. The mathematical probability strongly favors spread-compression, validating pair-trade execution (e.g., trimming SOL/GLN to scale into SAP). Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • ⏲ This Graphic Helps Clients Know Which Sectors Are Nearing Their Momentum Limit

    Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Gold Miners Are Lagging. Here's What's Leading.

    Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Summary: Chemicals and Coal Miners are the absolute standouts this week, staging dramatic upward surges compared to the last period. Chemicals erupted into an intense High Bullish state across all timeframes, while Coal Miners successfully broke out from a stagnant shorter-term base to establish a decisively Strong footing across the board. Meanwhile, Telecoms and Diversified Miners have firmly maintained their intense, bullish momentum, sustaining serious strength built upon solid Long-Term foundations. On the building front, Insurers, Hospitals, and Consumer Staples successfully held onto their Strong shorter-term positioning, defending last week's gains. Conversely, several sectors suffered a severe loss of momentum compared to last week's breakouts; Banks sharply cooled from Strong and High Bullish shorter-term states to stall back at Neutral, while both Technology and Consumer Discretionary entirely surrendered their recent Short-Term strength to fade back to Neutral alongside lingering Medium-Term weakness. The precious metals block shows slight stabilization from last week's severe sell-offs, with Platinum Miners settling at Neutral across the board and Gold Miners easing slightly from High Bearish to Weak in the Short Term. Finally, Paper & Pulp highlights a sharp divergence, worsening into a High Bearish Long-Term regime while shorter horizons stabilized to Neutral, while Luxury Goods remains entirely stagnant under persistent longer-term weakness. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Exxaro Resources: Scale Out i.e. Take Partial Profits. Approaching R235 Target (+38% Since December Alert)

    Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (23 January) ☰ 'Continuation' Buy Idea From The Watchlist: Target +R235 This share is on my watchlist as a 'Continuation Buy Idea'. In the short term, the share is consolidating after an ultra short term burst of momentum. Over the long term, the share has underperformed the broader market. A trigger via an igniting bar on the the weekly (or daily) chart would set the share up for a change of trend. Here, a weekly close above R193 or, if it continues to trade sideways over the next few weeks, a close above the downward trend line. A weekly close below R172 would temporarily invalidate the idea. The share is Exxaro Resources (EXX) Last Close: 18749c Note: During Q2 2025, we published Exxaro Resources as a medium term buy idea at R146/148 with the target of R185 being reached. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Take Profit on Generac Holdings: Running +36% (Target Exceeded)

    Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (04 August 2025): Global Idea: Generac Holdings; Backup power generation products for residential, light commercial and industrial markets Buy Range: $193-$196 Target: $230 Stop-Loss: $183 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Retailer Trading At M/T Support, Lower Levels Expected Before Tactical Rebound

    Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share is not exceptionally weak, however, it is approaching a medium term level of interest. Here, it could overshoot to the downside before potentially rebounding. See the price action model below. It's alerting us to watch for improved price action. Note, if it trades lower, the model could produce a different read i.e. oversold readings and a buy trigger. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 🟩+13.8% Rebound

    Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za A Stock Pick Driven By The Price Action Model ✓ The share traded only slightly lower (unfortunately not reaching the provisional buy re-entry) but has rebounded strongly in line with the Price Action Model (see 2 to 4 week time frame). We also recommended the share on 02 February (Anheuser-Busch Inbev listed in Brussells) > https://www.unum.capital/post/abi0202 Previous Post (Sunday 22 March) 💡Anheuser-Busch Inbev: Lower Levels Expected Before Potential Rebound (Buy Setup Pending) BUY ON DEEPER PULLBACK TO CONFLUENCE OF 200-DAY SMA AND THE PREVIOUS BREAKOUT LEVEL Analyst's Price Action Model (Take Note of the Applicable Time Frames As Per The Model) Anheuser-Busch Inbev Daily Chart (15-min Delayed) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

bottom of page