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Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Coal Miners, Telecoms, Chemicals, and Hospitals are the dominant leaders on the board, with all four sectors locking in Strong momentum in the Short Term. Chemicals and Coal Miners are particularly robust, carrying their strength through from High Bullish and Strong Long-Term foundations. On the turnaround front, Luxury Goods and Consumer Staples have staged significant rallies, moving from Weak Long-Term ruts to establish Strong momentum in the Short Term. Conversely, the precious metals complex is under severe pressure, as Gold Miners and Platinum Miners have both deteriorated into Weak regimes across the Medium and Short terms. Diversified Miners and Banks, while still structurally sound in the longer horizons, are visibly cooling as they settle into Neutral and Strong Short-Term consolidations. Finally, Technology, Insurers, and Consumer Discretionary remain largely Neutral in the immediate term, while Paper & Pulp continues to languish in a persistent Weak state. Key Sector Shifts Breakdown Broadening Strength: Coal Miners, Telecoms, Chemicals, Hospitals, Consumer Staples, and Luxury Goods all currently exhibit Strong short-term momentum. Structural Leaders: Diversified Miners remains a long-term powerhouse (High Bullish), though it has moderated to a Strong short-term reading. Precious Metals Breakdown: Both Gold Miners and Platinum Miners have shifted from Neutral/Strong long-term stances into Weak medium and short-term trends. Momentum Cooling: Banks and Insurers have stepped back from Strong medium-term trends to finish the period with Neutral short-term momentum. Stabilizing Laggards: Technology and Consumer Discretionary have managed to climb out of Weak and Oversold long-term positions to reach a Neutral short-term footing. Persistent Weakness: Paper & Pulp remains trapped in a bearish cycle, characterized by Weak momentum in both the Medium and Short terms. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Analyst's Disclosure: The graphic below has been generate using an artificial intelligence tool, based on the analyst's own data. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za 🟥Sasol: Structural Bull Trend But Short Term Conditions Lean Toward Overbought Analyst's Price Action Model: Bull-Bear Checklist Analyst Disclosure: A.I Generated based my own models/data. Analyst Disclosure: A.I Generated based my own models/data. REWARD-TO-RISK ASSESSMENT On the Daily Timeframe (Tactical), the outlook is Cautious / Overextended for new long positions. The stock has successfully breached immediate overhead resistance, pushing into a tactical breakout. However, the Ultra Short Term indicator has spiked directly into the Overbought tier, signaling a "Lock-Out" phase where the market is ignoring near-term cooling signals. Shorting here is considered High Risk, as fighting vertical price discovery during a breakout often leads to being squeezed. On the Weekly Timeframe (Swing), long positions are rated Good (Breakout Momentum). The stock has cleared the major structural resistance zone near 22,500c and is attempting to cement this breakout. With all four weekly momentum indicators grouped tightly in the High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought tier, the medium-term uptrend is highly energized by sustained institutional participation. For the Monthly Timeframe (Investment/Macro), the Long Position is rated Cautious / Extreme Extension. The sheer velocity of the recovery off the macro lows has pushed the Quarterly Pulse, Fast Monthly, and Secular Cycle deeply into the Overbought tier. While the underlying macro structure is improving, this vertical extension dramatically increases the mathematical probability of a sharp mean-reversion flush to reset overheated indicators. MOMENTUM PROFILE The momentum profile reveals a highly synchronized, aggressive bullish shock that is now testing extreme limits across all timeframes. Daily: The Ultra Short Term is pinned in the Overbought tier. This vertical price action is supported by the Short Term indicator reaching High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought. The underlying daily trend remains robust, with both the Mid Term and Base Term indicators securely in the Strong tier. Weekly: The weekly chart shows intense, uniform strength. The Tactical Momentum, Fast Weekly, Structural Trend, and Primary Trend are all perfectly synchronized within the High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought tier. This signals a powerful, broad-based swing phase that has not yet reached terminal exhaustion. Monthly: This timeframe is experiencing historic vertical extension. The Quarterly Pulse, Fast Monthly, and Secular Cycle are all redlining in the Overbought tier. The underlying Core Baseline has shifted decisively upward into High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought, confirming the validity of the structural repricing. CONTRARIAN ASYMMETRY: ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION ZONES Accumulation Zone (Contrarian Long): Given the deeply overextended monthly indicators, chasing the breakout at current levels offers poor risk-to-reward. The optimal zone to accumulate new long positions sits lower, in the 🔒 – 🔒 range. This area represents the previous structural resistance ceiling, which should now act as a formidable "Value Floor" during any mean-reversion pullback. Distribution Zone (Contrarian Short/Sell): The reward-to-risk for a contrarian short trade is optimally placed in the 🔒 – 🔒 range. Fading the current Overbought daily and monthly momentum into this next psychological resistance band provides an asymmetric setup to capture a corrective pullback as buyers temporarily exhaust themselves. ANALYST CONSENSUS & FUNDAMENTAL ALIGNMENT The fundamental landscape for Sasol continues to provide a strong tailwind that justifies this technical repricing. The consensus remains constructive, supported by heightened geopolitical tensions keeping energy complexes elevated, alongside robust chemical and refining margins. Operationally, much-improved performance at Natref continues to anchor free cash flow estimates. From a valuation perspective, the stock still appears inexpensive relative to historical norms, though the current market price near 23,214c means the deep-value discount is rapidly closing. The dividend yield remains suppressed as management prioritizes capital allocation and debt reduction. The technical breakout suggests the market is forward-pricing a resumption of shareholder returns in the coming cycles. CORE THESIS Sasol is currently undergoing a "Cyclical Breakout / Momentum Lock-Out." The synchronization of extreme bullish momentum across the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly timeframes confirms that institutional capital is aggressively re-rating the stock, successfully pushing it through a major multi-year resistance ceiling. However, the technicals are dangerously stretched. The statistical probability warns that the stock cannot sustain this angle of ascent indefinitely without a period of consolidation. Traders should utilize tight trailing stops and avoid chasing new entries here. Long-term investors should exercise patience, waiting for a structural retest of the 🔒 breakout level to confirm that old resistance has officially flipped to new support. WHAT CAN CHANGE? The current primary thesis is a Confirmed Breakout that is Tactically Overextended. Here is what would trigger a structural reversal or a change in this outlook: Technical Triggers (Shift to Bearish / Bull Trap): A violent rejection that forces a weekly close back below the 🔒 level, accompanied by the daily Ultra Short Term plunging straight into the Oversold tier. This would invalidate the breakout, signaling a massive "Bull Trap" and suggesting the institutional markup phase was merely a liquidity grab before further distribution. Fundamental / Macro Triggers (Shift to Bearish): A severe contraction in global crude oil prices, a sudden collapse in refining margins, or unexpected operational failures at Secunda that force a downward revision of cash flow estimates. Technical Triggers (Confirmation of Sustained Bull Supercycle): To invalidate the "Cautious / Overextended" rating and confirm a sustained secular bull market, the price needs to digest these overbought readings via a sideways consolidation above 🔒 rather than a sharp pullback. If the monthly Core Baseline expands fully into the Overbought tier while price grinds higher toward 🔒, it would signal that Sasol has entered a multi-year supercycle. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Analyst's Disclosure: Excluding the share price chart, the graphics below have been generate using an artificial intelligence tool, based on the analyst's own data. Bull-Bear Checklist Momentum Analysis READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za POTENTIAL MEAN REVERSION OPPORTUNITY I.E. LONG SANLAM LTD VS SHORT DISCOVERY HOLDINGS. NOTE: SLM (PENDING) TRADE IDEA PUBLISHED RECENTLY ON 28 APRIL > https://www.unum.capital/post/slm2804 Visualizing Long Term Rotation: Note: In a ratio chart, a falling line indicates that the denominator (Discovery) is outperforming the numerator (Sanlam). REWARD-TO-RISK ASSESSMENT On the Weekly Timeframe (Swing), positioning for a continuation of the ratio's downtrend (effectively Long DSY / Short SLM) is currently rated Cautious / Overextended. While Discovery has demonstrated undeniable structural outperformance, the ratio has broken aggressively into unchartered lows near 0.32, and the downward momentum is severely stretched. Shorting the ratio here carries a high risk of being caught in a sudden, violent mean-reversion squeeze as short-sellers take profit. Conversely, playing for a ratio reversal (Long SLM / Short DSY) is rated High Risk / Speculative. The pair is in absolute freefall, representing a massive structural de-rating of Sanlam relative to Discovery. However, because the weekly momentum indicators are universally compressed into extreme downside tiers, the reward-to-risk for a contrarian "rubber band" bounce is mathematically increasing, even if the longer-term structural trend remains heavily damaged. MOMENTUM PROFILE The momentum profile for this ratio reveals a total, synchronized structural rotation out of Sanlam and into Discovery across the medium-to-long term. Weekly: The Tactical Momentum and Fast Weekly indicators are both registering High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. The Structural Trend has plunged completely into the Oversold tier, confirming massive structural damage to Sanlam's historical relative valuation. The Primary Trend supports this regime change, sitting deep in High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. CONTRARIAN ASYMMETRY: ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION ZONES Accumulation Zone (Contrarian Reversion - Favoring Sanlam): The reward-to-risk for a mean-reversion pairs trade (Long SLM / Short DSY) is becoming appealing in this extreme 0.30 – 0.32 capitulation zone. Downside from here is statistically limited compared to the potential for a snap-back rally as the extreme relative valuation differential normalizes. Distribution Zone (Trend Continuation - Favoring Discovery): The optimal zone to re-enter a pro-trend pairs trade (Short the ratio; Long DSY / Short SLM) sits much higher in the 0.36 – 0.38 range. This area was a major multi-year support floor (established between 2021 and 2024) that recently failed; it will now act as a formidable ceiling of resistance on any relief rallies. Fading a ratio bounce into this zone offers an excellent asymmetric setup. CORE THESIS The SLM/DSY pair is executing a "Structural Regime Change." The decisive breakdown of the ratio below historical support confirms that institutional capital has aggressively favored Discovery's growth trajectory and operational metrics over Sanlam's broader, diversified model in the current cycle. However, the sheer velocity of this rotation has left the ratio tactically exhausted to the downside. The statistical probability strongly favors a near-term consolidation or a sharp, reflexive relief bounce in the ratio as the market digests the magnitude of the move. Traders should avoid chasing Discovery's outperformance at these stretched levels. The broader trend heavily favors Discovery, but the immediate tactical setup warns of an impending Sanlam counter-rally. WHAT CAN CHANGE? The current primary thesis is a Structural Discovery Outperformance that is Tactically Overextended. Here is what would trigger a structural reversal or a change in this outlook: Technical Triggers (Shift to Bullish Ratio / Sanlam Resurgence): A violent, V-shaped recovery in the ratio that reclaims and closes the week above the 0.38 pivot. This must be accompanied by the Primary Trend hooking sharply back into the Neutral or Strong tier, which would signal a "False Breakdown" and trap spread-traders on the wrong side of the market. Fundamental / Macro Triggers: The primary catalyst for a ratio reversal would be a significant shift in the South African financial technology landscape. For instance, if Sanlam demonstrates superior integration of Artificial Intelligence in its underwriting and operational efficiencies, yielding sudden margin expansion, capital could rapidly rotate back. Conversely, if Discovery faces unexpected regulatory hurdles (e.g., adverse developments regarding the NHI impacting its core health administration business), institutions would quickly unwind their 'Short Sanlam / Long Discovery' overlay positions, causing the ratio to spike violently in Sanlam's favor. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za POTENTIAL MEAN REVERSION OPPORTUNITY I.E. LONG CLICKS VS SHORT DIS-CHEM PHARMACIES. NOTE: CLS TRADE IDEA PUBLISHED RECENTLY ON 24 APRIL > https://www.unum.capital/post/cls2404 Visualizing Long Term Rotation: Note: In a ratio chart, a falling line indicates that the denominator (Dis-Chem) is outperforming the numerator (Clicks). REWARD-TO-RISK ASSESSMENT On the Weekly Timeframe (Swing), positioning for a continuation of the ratio's downtrend (effectively Long DCP / Short CLS) is currently rated Cautious / Overextended. While Dis-Chem has demonstrated undeniable structural outperformance, the ratio has broken aggressively below multi-year support levels and the downward momentum is severely stretched. Shorting the ratio here carries a high risk of a sudden, violent mean-reversion squeeze. Conversely, playing for a ratio reversal (Long CLS / Short DCP) is rated High Risk / Speculative. The pair is in absolute freefall. However, because the weekly momentum indicators are universally compressed into extreme downside tiers, the reward-to-risk for a contrarian "rubber band" bounce is mathematically increasing, even if the longer-term structural trend remains broken. MOMENTUM PROFILE The momentum profile for this ratio reveals a total, synchronized structural de-rating of Clicks relative to Dis-Chem across the medium-to-long term. Weekly: The Tactical Momentum and Fast Weekly indicators are both registering High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. The Structural Trend has plunged completely into the Oversold tier, confirming massive structural damage to Clicks' historical premium over Dis-Chem. The Primary Trend supports this regime change, sitting deep in High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. CONTRARIAN ASYMMETRY: ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION ZONES Accumulation Zone (Contrarian Reversion - Favoring Clicks): The reward-to-risk for a mean-reversion pairs trade (Long CLS / Short DCP) becomes highly appealing as the ratio drops into the 6.50 – 7.00 zone. This area represents deep historical base levels from 2017/2018. Downside from here is statistically limited compared to the potential for a snap-back rally to test previous breakdowns. Distribution Zone (Trend Continuation - Favoring Dis-Chem): The optimal zone to re-enter a pro-trend pairs trade (Short the ratio; Long DCP / Short CLS) sits much higher in the 8.50 – 9.00 range. This area was a major multi-year support floor that recently failed; it will now act as a formidable ceiling of resistance on any relief rallies. Fading a ratio bounce into this zone offers an excellent asymmetric setup. CORE THESIS The CLS/DCP pair is executing a "Structural Regime Change" within the SA retail pharmacy sector. The decisive breakdown of the ratio below historical support confirms that institutional capital has aggressively rotated out of Clicks' historical premium valuation and into Dis-Chem's growth trajectory. However, the velocity of this rotation has left the ratio tactically exhausted to the downside. The statistical probability strongly favors a near-term consolidation or a sharp, reflexive relief bounce in the ratio as short-sellers take profits on the spread. Traders should avoid chasing Dis-Chem's outperformance at these stretched levels. The broader trend favors Dis-Chem, but the immediate tactical setup warns of an impending Clicks counter-rally. WHAT CAN CHANGE? The current primary thesis is a Structural Dis-Chem Outperformance that is Tactically Overextended. Here is what would trigger a structural reversal or a change in this outlook: Technical Triggers (Shift to Bullish Ratio / Clicks Resurgence): A violent, V-shaped recovery in the ratio that reclaims and closes the week above the 9.00 pivot. This must be accompanied by the Primary Trend hooking sharply back into the Neutral or Strong tier, which would signal a "False Breakdown" and trap spread-traders on the wrong side of the market. Fundamental / Macro Triggers: The primary catalyst for a ratio reversal would be a significant operational misstep by Dis-Chem (e.g., margin compression due to aggressive discounting or supply chain issues) combined with Clicks demonstrating resilient, defensive earnings that justify its historical sector premium. Any earnings report that forces institutions to rapidly unwind their 'Short Clicks / Long Dis-Chem' overlay positions would cause the ratio to spike violently. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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https://www.unum.capital/post/sector0804 Update: AngloGold Ashanti https://www.unum.capital/post/ang0704 💡Price Action Model Setup: Risks & Opportunities https://www.unum.capital/post/1ang0704 💡Trading Capitec Bank https://www.unum.capital/post/cpi0704 💡Trading BHP Group https://www.unum.capital/post/bhg0704 💡Trading Thungela Resources https://www.unum.capital/post/tga0704 💡R205 to R210 as a Buy Re-Entry https://www.unum.capital/post/abg0704 JSE Momentum Dashboard (Mid & Large Caps) 🟢🟡🔴 https://www.unum.capital/post/modash0704 JSE Sectors: Speed Limit https://www.unum.capital/post/tank0704 JSE Sector Breadth https://www.unum.capital/post/secbreadth0704 JSE Rotation Graph https://www.unum.capital/post/rotation0704 JSE Momentum Trajectory https://www.unum.capital/post/traject0704 JSE Sectors: Leaders & Laggards https://www.unum.capital/post/sectors0702 💡Trading Valterra Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/val0704 💡Trading Harmony Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/har0604 Spot Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/xpt0604 Brent Crude Oil https://www.unum.capital/post/ukoil0604 JSE Top 40 Index - 12,000 Points https://www.unum.capital/post/j2000204 JSE Daily Breadth https://www.unum.capital/post/odb0204 OMN Bull-Bear Checklist https://www.unum.capital/post/omn0204 TFG Bull-Bear Checklist https://www.unum.capital/post/tfg0204 S&P 500 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/spx0204 Trading Sibanye Stillwater https://www.unum.capital/post/ssw0104 Spot Gold Buy Idea: Running +10% (or +$460) https://www.unum.capital/post/xau0104 Momentum Wrap + Dashboard 🟢🟡🔴 https://www.unum.capital/post/modash0104 Trading Harmony Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/har0104 JSE Top 40 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/j2000104 The Breadth Report https://www.unum.capital/post/breadth0104 Momentum Trend Trajectory https://www.unum.capital/post/traject0104 JSE Sector Rotation: Leaders & Laggards https://www.unum.capital/post/rotation0104 JSE Paper & Pulp https://www.unum.capital/post/pulp0104 JSE Financials (Banks + Insurers) https://www.unum.capital/post/financials0104 Quarter-End: Relative Strength/Weakness: JSE Sectors https://www.unum.capital/post/sectors0104 Featured Post: Unum Capital Commentary For Bloomberg https://www.unum.capital/post/bloomberg3003 Archive: Year-To-Date March 2026 https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 February 2026 https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 January 2026 https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Share the following link to our website with your social circle: https://unum.capital/blog/ Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Summary: Banks, Telecoms, and Insurers are the standout performers, staging dramatic breakouts compared to last week. Both Banks and Telecoms surged from previously flat profiles to establish Strong Long-Term and Medium-Term foundations, accelerating into High Bullish momentum in the Short Term. Insurers similarly ignited, building a Strong Medium-Term footing and a High Bullish Short-Term state from a previously Neutral base. Meanwhile, Diversified Miners and Chemicals continue to maintain intense, bullish momentum, pushing their Long-Term trends into High Bullish territory (with Chemicals shaking off last week's Short-Term neutrality to rebound back to Strong). On the turnaround front, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology maintain their Strong Short-Term footing despite persistent Weak or Oversold Long-Term regimes, while Hospitals remain solidly elevated, pushing into an Overbought state in the Medium Term. Conversely, the precious metals block is visibly falling apart; both Gold Miners and Platinum Miners suffered severe downgrades across all horizons, collapsing from previously Strong Long-Term bases to Neutral, while plunging into intensely High Bearish momentum in the Short Term. Luxury Goods also sharply lost their previous short-term strength, cooling rapidly to Neutral in the Medium and Short Term. Finally, Paper & Pulp deteriorated further, sinking into an Oversold Long-Term state alongside Weak shorter-term momentum, while Coal Miners managed a Long-Term upgrade to Strong but remain stuck in Neutral shorter-term trends. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za REWARD-TO-RISK ASSESSMENT On the Daily Timeframe (Tactical), the outlook is Cautious / Overextended for new USD long positions. The exchange rate has executed a violent V-shaped recovery off the sub-16.00 lows. Because the Ultra Short Term indicator is now pinned in the Overbought tier, the pair is in a tactical "Lock-Out" phase. Fading this move (Short USD / Long ZAR) is currently rated Moderate Risk; while the momentum is statistically stretched and primed for a mean-reversion pullback, standing in front of a sudden sovereign currency shock requires wide stops and strict risk management. On the Weekly Timeframe (Swing), USD long positions are rated Good (Momentum Reversal). The pair has aggressively defended the structural support floor, and the faster weekly indicators are hooking up sharply. With Tactical Momentum entering the Strong tier, the medium-term momentum has officially shifted from bearish to bullish. However, shorting the USD on this timeframe is High Risk, as the downward momentum has been broken. For the Monthly Timeframe (Investment/Macro), the outlook is Neutral / Consolidating. Despite the recent daily volatility, the broader secular trend of the USD/ZAR has been locked in a massive multi-year consolidation phase since the highs of 2023/2024. The Core Baseline is resting firmly in the Neutral tier, indicating that the macro trend is currently range-bound rather than in a runaway secular bull or bear market. MOMENTUM PROFILE The momentum profile reveals a violent tactical short-squeeze on the daily chart, while the macro timeframes digest the volatility within a neutral posture. Daily: The upward shock is severe. The Ultra Short Term and Short Term indicators are both maxed out in the Overbought tier. This vertical price action is supported by the Mid Term pushing into High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought, and the Base Term daily trend shifting into the Strong tier. Weekly: The weekly chart confirms a structural bounce. Tactical Momentum, Fast Weekly, and the Structural Trend have all synchronized into the Strong tier. However, the Primary Trend remains anchored in the Neutral tier, showing that the broader swing cycle has not yet confirmed a total regime change. Monthly: The macroeconomic view remains exceptionally flat. The Quarterly Pulse has ticked up into the Strong tier, but the Fast Monthly, Secular Cycle, and Core Baseline are all flatlining in the Neutral tier. CONTRARIAN ASYMMETRY: ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION ZONES Accumulation Zone (Contrarian USD Long / ZAR Short): Given the overextended daily indicators, chasing the USD here offers poor risk-to-reward. The optimal zone to accumulate USD longs sits lower, in the 16.00 – 16.40 range. This area represents the recent structural "Value Floor" and a major psychological defense line. Buying USD on a mean-reversion dip into this zone offers superior asymmetry. Distribution Zone (Contrarian USD Short / ZAR Long): The reward-to-risk for fading the Dollar's strength becomes highly appealing in the 17.50 – 18.00 resistance band. This zone contains heavy historical supply and represents the upper boundary of the recent macro consolidation block. Fading extreme daily momentum into this overhead resistance provides an excellent setup for a ZAR relief rally. MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL ALIGNMENT The fundamental drivers of the USD/ZAR pair are currently caught in a tug-of-war. The recent spike in the daily chart aligns with typical "risk-off" capital flows, where global bond yield volatility or shifts in US Federal Reserve interest rate expectations cause emerging market currencies like the Rand to violently reprice. Locally, the Rand's ability to hold the macro Neutral line relies heavily on the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) monetary policy remaining credible, alongside the performance of key export commodities (like gold and PGMs) and the stability of the national grid. The current technical posture suggests that while the ZAR is under severe short-term pressure, it has not yet suffered a complete macroeconomic structural breakdown. CORE THESIS The USD/ZAR is currently experiencing a "Violent Tactical Squeeze within a Macro Range." The extreme Overbought readings on the daily timeframe confirm that the market has rapidly repriced near-term risk, catching ZAR bulls off guard. However, because the monthly Core Baseline remains strictly Neutral, the statistical probability favors this daily spike eventually finding resistance before it can evolve into a runaway currency crisis. Traders should anticipate heightened two-way volatility and avoid chasing the USD at these stretched levels. The optimal strategy is to wait for the daily indicators to cool off, utilizing the structural boundaries (16.00 support vs 18.00 resistance) for asymmetric entries. WHAT CAN CHANGE? The current primary thesis is a Tactically Overbought USD within a Broader Consolidation Range. Here is what would trigger a structural reversal or a change in this outlook: Technical Triggers (Shift to Secular USD Bull / ZAR Bear): A decisive monthly close above the 18.50 macro resistance ceiling, accompanied by the monthly Core Baseline breaking out into the Strong tier. This would signal that the multi-year consolidation has resolved to the upside, launching a new wave of structural currency devaluation for the Rand. Fundamental / Macro Triggers (Shift to USD Bull / ZAR Bear): A collapse in global commodity prices, a sovereign credit rating downgrade for South Africa, or a systemic emerging market liquidity crisis driven by aggressive US Dollar strength. Technical Triggers (Shift to Secular ZAR Bull / USD Bear): If the current daily spike fails entirely and the pair violently collapses back below the 15.80 floor, turning the weekly Primary Trend into the Weak tier. This would confirm a massive "Bull Trap" for the US Dollar, signaling that institutional capital is structurally rotating back into South African assets, opening the door for a retest of the 14.50 – 15.00 macro support levels. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Top-Heavy Advance/Decline Skew: The market is currently biased toward the upside, with 49 shares occupying the top three bullish tiers (Overbought, High Bullish, Strong) compared to only 29 shares in the bottom three bearish tiers (Weak, High Bearish, Oversold). The "Waiting Room" Bottleneck: The Neutral tier is the largest single cluster, holding 38 shares. This massive volatility squeeze indicates a state of broad institutional indecision. The market lacks the macroeconomic catalyst required to force a decisive "fan-out" in either direction. Expansion of the Capitulation Floor: Breadth at the bottom is widening. The Oversold tier has grown to include CLS, MNP, and SAP. A broadening base of oversold stocks often precedes a market-wide relief rally, as short-sellers run out of fresh targets. Financial Sector Concentration: Breadth is being artificially supported by the financial sector. Almost every major bank and insurer sits in the Strong or High Bullish tiers. If financials experience a sudden mean-reversion, the entire index breadth will sharply deteriorate. Distribution in the Middle: The 20 shares in the Weak tier highlight a stealth distribution phase. While the major indices may look stable, a significant undercurrent of mid-tier shares is quietly deteriorating under the surface. Volatility Offset Action: The Average True Range (ATR) percentages show massive expansion at the extremes. Oversold names (ISO at 8.85%, TGA at 6.89%) and Overbought names (SOL at 5.67%) are exhibiting extreme daily price bands, confirming that emotion is overriding fundamentals at the edges of the universe. Weekly Trend Integrity: Despite daily noise, the structural weekly breadth remains intact. The sheer size of the "Strong" cluster proves that the longer-term 2026 bull market baseline has not yet been compromised by the recent geopolitical shocks. Lack of Broad-Based Panic: The High Bearish tier contains only 3 stocks (MRP, PIK, PWR). If the market were entering a systemic crash, this tier would be flooded with names breaking structural support. Its small size confirms this is a localized, sector-specific rotation rather than a systemic exit. The "Risk of Free" Capital Allocation: The breadth data perfectly illustrates institutional capital preservation. Money is flowing out of Overbought/Exhausted names and hiding in the massive Neutral cluster, unwilling to take aggressive uncalculated risks until geopolitical clarity improves. The Breadth Verdict: The JSE is experiencing a "Sectoral Roll." Breadth is neither uniformly bullish nor universally bearish. It is a stock-picker's tape where alpha is generated entirely by identifying phase transitions between these 7 distinct volatility regimes. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za The Extreme Danger Zone: Momentum exhaustion is peaking in a concentrated basket. GND, SBP, and ADH are heavily overextended. Institutional liquidity removal is highly probable here. The Sasol (SOL) Pivot: Sasol has triggered a "High Bullish Correction." While its structural base momentum remains highly elevated, its short-term momentum has collapsed. The vertical parabolic phase has snapped, demanding a reduction in tactical exposure. Financials Dominating the "Blow-Off" Queue: The High Bullish tier is heavily populated by banks and insurers (SBK, DSY, REM). These names are experiencing "Vertical Drift," suggesting one final high-probability leg up before triggering overbought sell signals. Structural Accumulation in Tier 3: The "Strong" tier is the healthiest segment of the market, containing 31 shares (including ABG, CPI, INP). Indicators here are sloping upward in parallel, confirming that institutional size is being accumulated without triggering volatile price spikes. Resource Bifurcation: Mining momentum is severely fragmented. While diversified and precious metal miners (AGL, ANG, BHG) sit in the top Bullish/Strong tiers, paper and specific commodity plays (SAP, MNP) have collapsed into the Oversold floor. Naspers/Prosus Structural Decay: The tech heavyweights (NPN, PRX) remain trapped in the "Weak" tier. Every short-term rally is being aggressively met with institutional supply, keeping their primary trend slopes negative. The Retail Capitulation Floor: TFG, SPP, and CLS are flashing maximum pessimism. Momentum has completely evacuated, setting up a high-probability "liquidity vacuum" for deep-value bottom fishers. High Bearish Dead-Cat Traps: Names like MRP, PIK, and PWR are locked in high-velocity downtrends. Their short-term relief rallies are failing to even reach mid-term equilibrium, making them ideal candidates to sell into strength. Mid-Cap Momentum Divergence: Smaller capitalization stocks like WVR and KST are matching the momentum velocity of the Top 40 heavyweights, confirming that risk appetite remains selectively active outside the mega-caps. Tactical Action Mandate: The extremes are highly actionable. The momentum engine dictates taking profits in Tier 1 (Overbought) to fund high-probability relief bounces in Tier 7 (Oversold), while letting the Tier 3 (Strong) core compound uninterrupted. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (13 March) Actionable Trading Levels: Redefine Properties For our clients trading Redefine Properties (RDF). Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital