Spot Platinum: Medium Term Outlook & Probabilities

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025

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Core Thesis

Spot Platinum (XPTUSD) is currently in a state of high-velocity expansion, reaching a 14-year high above $1,950 as of mid-December 2025. This aggressive rally is fueled by a profound structural supply deficit—estimated at approximately 850,000 to 1,000,000 ounces for the third consecutive year—and a massive "debasement trade" lifting the entire metals complex. However, the vertical nature of the current move has pushed momentum indicators into extreme overbought territory. The strategic focus is to fade immediate parabolic spikes and wait for a structural mean-reversion retest of the breakout base to secure sustainable long-term exposure.

Categorization & Strategy

◦ Primary Category: Parabolic Breakout / Climax Phase

◦ Impending Transition: Technical Mean-Reversion / Structural Reset

◦ Strategic Overlay: Fade the immediate climax; buy structural pullbacks to validate the new high base. Target re-entry at previous breakout zones or major moving averages.

◦ Decade-High Breakout: Platinum has decisively cleared the $1,700 - $1,750 range, which served as a major resistance ceiling since 2013.

◦ Breakout Velocity: The ongoing move is exceptionally steep, with the asset surging over 90% year-to-date. This reflects a sudden rotation of capital away from fully-priced metals like gold into structurally undervalued platinum.

◦ Deficit Floor: The market is currently operating under its most severe supply-demand imbalance in years, with annual deficits averaging 600-800 koz expected to persist through 2029.

◦ Momentum Exhaustion: Technical indicators show significant bearish divergence and overbought readings, signaling that the current trajectory is unsustainable without a pause.

Key Actionable Zones

◦ Immediate Resistance: $1,950 – $2,000 (Recent 14-Year High / Psychological Barrier).

◦ Pivot Support: $1,850 (Retest of the 2025 ascending channel upper bound).

◦ Critical Structural Support: $1,705 – $1,740 (Previous Multi-Year Resistance turned Floor).

◦ Trend Floor: $1,500 – $1,620 (Major High-Timeframe Pivot and FOMC Support).

🟢 Bullish Scenario: Blue Sky Extension: Price ignores extreme technical readings and charges toward $2,100 - $2,170, driven by continued industrial restocking and physical supply squeezes.

⚪ Base Scenario: Pullback to Base: The metal executes a necessary correction back to the $1,705 - $1,850 zone to reset momentum. This "healthy" profit-taking allows the structural trend to solidify before the next leg higher toward $2,300 in 2026.

🔴 Bearish Scenario: False Breakout: A violent rejection at $1,950 leads to a high-volume flush back below $1,500, signaling a "blow-off top" and returning the asset to its long-term range-bound state.

Best Action Timeline/Price Action Probability

◦ 1 to 10 days: 70% Probability of Technical Churn. Due to extreme overextension, a lateral reset or minor retracement toward $1,850 is likely as profit-taking occurs at 14-year highs.

◦ 2 to 4 weeks: 65% Probability of Structural Test. Anticipate a test of the $1,705 level to confirm it as a reliable long-term support base for 2026.

◦ 5 to 8 weeks: 60% Probability of Cycle Resumption. If structural support holds through January, seasonal strength typically drives price toward new extension targets through February.

Momentum Profile (Weekly Focus)

The momentum structure is at extreme historical levels, indicating a climax phase within a confirmed bull trend:

◦ Ultra Short Term: Indication: OVERBOUGHT | Slope: FLAT (Climax Testing)

◦ Short Term: Indication: HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT | Slope: UP

◦ Mid Term: Indication: STRONG | Slope: UP

◦ Base Term: Indication: STRONG | Slope: UP

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital