top of page
Writer's pictureLester Davids

A Discounting Mechanism

Thursday, 07 November 2024

Time Published: Pre-Market (JSE)


  • This page will be updated as the price action and news flow develops and, as opportunities are identified in real-time.


COVERAGE:


  • S/Africa 10-Year Bond Yield

  • JSE Top 40 Index (J200) - Bear Flag Breakdown Continued

  • JSE Sector Ratings

  • JSE Technical Summary

  • JSE Market Breadth

  • Strongest/Weakest Open To Close

  • The Stock Market: 'A Discounting Mechanism'

  • Update: U.S Small Caps Mega Rally (Multi-Month Highs)

  • Update: U.S Financials - Sharp Rally On Trump Victory

  • Discovery Holdings - You Cannot Ignore This

  • Impala Platinum - Unwinding Into A Rising 50-day EMA

  • AVI Ltd - Excessively Overbought

  • Bid Corp: R20 Rebound

  • British American Tobacco: Sharp Bullish Reversal

  • Update: U.S. Coal Stocks Surge

 
 

Mega (or MAGA) Moves Across The Board In The U.S Last Night!




South African 10-Year Bond Yield (ZA10Y) - One of the most important charts for local investors. The igniting bar previously highlighted (circled) has seen continued upside follow-through. This is not a local story. It's U.S interest rate and USD story.


JSE Top 40 Index (J200) | The bear flag highlighted and discussed in last week Monday's report has continued to trade to the downside, with the index close to 3000 points lower following the breach of the incline support. Current at support (at the 50-day EMA) but with poor candle structure.

JSE Top 40 Index - as discussed in the report (The Sum of the Charts) on Monday, 28 October.


JSE Sector Ratings (as of yesterday's close)


JSE Market Breadth (as of yesterday's close)


Most Aggressive Buying (Top 10) From Open To Close (Daily Time Frame)


Most Aggressive Selling (Top 10) From Open To Close (Daily Time Frame)


JSE Technical Summary (Weekly Time Frames)


The Stock Market: 'A Discounting Mechanism'. "The stock market is the best economic forecaster I know". These are the words of one of the greatest money managers of this generation, Stanley Druckenmiller. Similar to the way in which South African facing shares rallied in the lead up to the election, the same was seen for domestic focused U.S stocks such as small caps, insurers/banks/financials, cyclicals (economically sensitive), the US Dollar as well as bond yields. In other words, the market did it's job as a 'discounting mechanism' by highlighting the positioning of the market participants in anticipation of the most likely outcomes.


Update: U.S Small Caps (IWM) Including Regional Banks (KRE ETF) - Now At Multi-Month Highs. The Original Comment (+Updated Performance Chart) Is Shown Below. Note: The Regional Banks ETF Is Higher By 27% Since The Comment Below.


Update: iShares U.S Financials ETF (IYF) - Original Chart/Note + Updated Comments On The Chart


Discovery Holdings (DSY) | The share is starting to show some weak right into the previous marked sell range. I'm not expecting a sharp drop from here, but you cannot ignore the price starting to lose it's aggressive upside momentum.


Impala Platinum (IMP) - as of yesterday's close, this was the reading from the Tactical Trading Guide. Note the share price unwinding from overbought and approaching the 50-day EMA.


AVI Ltd - Reviewing Last Night's Readings From The Tactical Trading Guide, This Stood Out To me: Excessively Overbought


BID CORP (BID) | Clients of Unum Capital have access to high quality, actionable research insights that help to understand and manage risks as well as uncover opportunities. These include proprietary tools that automates analysis in order to highlight risks and opportunities. Most recently, the automated data (see original below the chart) for Bid Corp showed that the although selling has been aggressive in the short term, the share was positioned for a potential rebound. From R417 at the time of writing, the share rallied by R20 to test a high of R437 four (4) sessions later on Wednesday 06 November. These price moves represent opportunities to profit from volatility and generate cash flow around core positions.


British American Tobacco (BTI) | Sharp Bullish Reversal (In Line). Both a manual and automated view was communicated, highlighting the potential for a rebound following an unwind from the previous overbought conditions which offered a buy/long re-entry opportunity. Over the past few session, we have seen a strong rally on the back of a weaker ZAR (i.e. stronger USD). On 07 October, my note was titled: "Get Ready To Trade BTI" while the model reading at the swing low (end-of-day 18/10) highlighted that the share had 'become attractive for a small buy/long position'. The share traded just below R600 before rally over the subsequent two weeks to a high of R643.19.


U.S. Coal Stocks - Discussed less than 3 weeks ago. Two names uncovered via manual search while one name appeared on a screener. For active traders, these have been phenomenal opportunities over the past 2 to 3 weeks.


Lester Davids

Analyst: Unum Capital

19 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Commentaires


bottom of page