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  • Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst thoughts: S&P 500 index


  • The long-held bullish view is testing the target R0/R1** target range. The longer-term blue labelling (1,2,3,4 & 5) has been added to indicate the longer-term bullish bias.

  • While the bull trend remains intact the medium-term outlook is for correction probability to S0*.

  • This should be phase 4 of the impulsive bull trend to R2 (see the insert). This is an adjustment to the previous outlook of a bullish correction rather than a trend.

  • An eventual red W,X, Y correction could re-visit S1 as part of the longer-term bull trend.

  • The importance of the target area:

  • R1/R2* is cluster resistance where red 3 = 1.618 of 1, as common trending extension targets.

  • The RSI oscillator (lower panel) is overbought and diverging.

  • The recent sharp reversal candlestick (highlighted) could be an early sign of a top.

  • Important levels:

  • R1** and S0* will negate the medium-term illustrated view.

  • Technical conviction: Medium

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