Analyst thoughts: S&P500 Medium-term
VIEW RETAINED: BEARISH CORRECTION MATERIALISING
The overall view of a bull trend to R1**, followed by a meaningful bearish reversal to S0*, is materialising. Overbought RSI conditions have normalised.
The downside towards S0* would be a phase 4 correction within the larger bull trend to R2. An exact test of this level is not required.
S0* is a 38.2% retracement of the preceding trend and also coincides with the previous bottom and longer term top in August 2022.
Holding above S0* will mean that the correction is most likely phase 4 of the larger bull trend to R2.
S0* is also pivotal for the large bullish count. A break below this level will neutralise the longer-term upside potential. Breaking above R1* will negate the bearish correction.
Conviction: Medium to high
The exact pattern development of the expected correction should give further insights over time.