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  • Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst thoughts: S&P500 Medium-term


  • The overall view of a bull trend to R1**, followed by a meaningful bearish reversal to S0*, is materialising. Overbought RSI conditions have normalised.

  • The downside towards S0* would be a phase 4 correction within the larger bull trend to R2. An exact test of this level is not required.

  • S0* is a 38.2% retracement of the preceding trend and also coincides with the previous bottom and longer term top in August 2022.

  • Holding above S0* will mean that the correction is most likely phase 4 of the larger bull trend to R2.

  • S0* is also pivotal for the large bullish count. A break below this level will neutralise the longer-term upside potential. Breaking above R1* will negate the bearish correction.

  • Conviction: Medium to high

  • The exact pattern development of the expected correction should give further insights over time.

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