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  • Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst Thoughts: US 10-year Bond - Medium Term

MAINTAINING THE PERSPECTIVE THAT THE PRICE ACTION WILL TEST THE LONG-TERM TARGET LEVELS.

  • The long-held view of an impulsive 1,2,3,4,5 bear trend to T1*/T2, followed by a medium-term reversal, is transpiring. The illustrated view is retained.

  • The current A,B,C-type downside should now target S3* over time.

  • The initial leg (A) of the bull phase was potentially completed at S1 , followed by an R0/S1 consolidation phase (B).

  • The final downside to S3 should complete the bull phase.

  • The longer-term outlook is for a T1*/S3 consolidation. This could be a base for eventual further upside to new highs.

  • T1* and S3 are pivotal for the overall consolidation stance.

  • The long-term bear trend remains valid.

  • Conviction: Medium to high



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