Trading Harmony Gold: +39% Rally + Probabilities Going Forward

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

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Analysis performed on Friday, 17 April 2026 at 15h10

For our clients trading Harmony Gold: The share is +39% vs our 19 March trigger. Now: Too late to buy, too early to sell. Daily time frame: High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought. Prefer to 'buy on pullbacks'. Peaked at R428 in January. Bottomed at R215 in March. In a 'weekly' recovery phase. The regimes and probabilities is shown via the Price Action Model below.

KEY TAKEAWAY (based on the above Price Action Model & Chart): 🟢 BUY ON PULLBACK / BREAKOUT | Harmony Gold is executing a strong bullish reversal out of a deep consolidation phase; with near-term momentum running hot, traders should look to accumulate on a structured pullback to the 8-EMA or aggressively buy on strong bids near the range highs to capture the structural rebound. (Analyst Disclosure: Automatically written using an artificial intelligence tool, based on the own inputs/data/model).

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READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS

For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital.

The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include:

• Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes

• Momentum indicators

• Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance

• Candle structure

• Moving averages and standard deviation

Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.

THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

• It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:

• The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.

• Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)

• Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position

• Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)

• Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.

• Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)

• Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)

• Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal

• Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend

• Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)

• Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)

• Whether a share lacks directional bias.

• The data set is available in real-time (on request)

• The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital