Trading Harmony Gold (HMY)

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za

For our clients trading Harmony Gold (HMY) in New York.

Closing Price: $21.80

1W Change: +5.36%

Multi-Frame Action: 🟡 Consolidation (D) 🟢 Bullish (W) 🟢 Blue Sky (M)

Technical Upside: Blue Sky. Resistance at $22.98 (Intra-week High).

Target: $24.00 – $26.00. Trend Extension.

Momentum Signal: Bullish Continuation (Weekly RSI > 77)

Risk / Invalidation: Close below $19.00

Valuation Basket: Leveraged Gold Play / Emerging Market Value

Primary Driver: Rising Gold Price ($) & Rand Weakness Leverage.

MARKET STRUCTURE & VOLUME VALIDATION

Volume Profile: Weekly volume (21.04M) is healthy and supports the strong weekly close of +5.36%. The stock is aggressively pushing into new highs, indicating sustained institutional accumulation rather than a retail blow-off top.

Liquidity Zones: The $19.00 – $20.00 zone has flipped from resistance to a major support floor. Price has successfully launched from this base. The next liquidity objective is the psychological $25.00 level as the stock enters price discovery.

Divergences: None. The Daily RSI has reset to "Neutral" (46.20) during the intra-week pullback, while the price held the high ground. This hidden bullish divergence suggests that the "froth" has been removed without damaging the uptrend, setting the stage for the next leg higher.

MOMENTUM PROFILE (WEEKLY)

Tactical Momentum: Strong. The indicator is at 77.32, sitting firmly in the "Strong" to "Approaching Overbought" zone. It remains pointed upward, confirming that short-term buy pressure is intense.

Fast Weekly: Strong. Tracking closely with the tactical signal at 71.06, reinforcing the strength of the current breakout move.

Structural Trend: Bullish. The medium-term trend is robust (66.49) and rising, providing a solid "wind at the back" for the current rally.

Primary Trend: Bullish. The core baseline (63.79) is healthy and expanding, confirming this is a high-conviction secular trend.

CORE THESIS

Harmony Gold is a high-beta play on the current gold bull market, showing relative strength that exceeds the underlying metal. The daily momentum reset has cleared the "overbought" condition while price remains near highs—a classic "bull flag" setup. With weekly momentum firing on all cylinders and no overhead resistance (Blue Sky), the path of least resistance is significantly higher, targeting $24.00+.

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Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable)

READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned.

"Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup.

THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

• It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:

• The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.

• Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)

• Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position

• Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)

• Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.

• Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)

• Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)

• Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal

• Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend

• Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)

• Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)

• Whether a share lacks directional bias.

• The data set is available in real-time (on request)

• The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital