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Thursday 05-October-2023, 06h30 Pepkor (PPH). Approaching Target. Bank/Take Profit. Original idea discussed here on this page.
Thursday 05-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Technical Summary: Short Term, as at yesterday's close.
This page is FULL. Continue reading here: https://www.unum.capital/post/___n2
Wednesday 04-October-2023, 08h21 STRATEGY COMMENT. Key Themes (1) Bond Yields Higher, Equities Lower (2) Volatility Spike (3) High Interest Rates & A Stronger US Dollar Capping An Advance In Risk Assets (4) Tactical Opportunities On Both The Long (Buy) and Short (Sell) Side.
MARKET BREADTH refers to how many stocks are participating in a given move in an index/exchange. Analyzing yesterday's end-of-day technical summary for the JSE, the WEAK category is where the majority of the 78 shares under coverage find themselves on a short term trending basis. The second most populated category is NEUTRAL while there are 10 shares that exhibit a HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM/APPROACHING OVERSOLD rating. Fewer names are displaying HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM while none is OVERBOUGHT. This weak market breadth highlights the broad-based selling where a significant number of constituents are back below key moving average (21,50-EMAs) while the index itself is below it's 200-day simple moving average.
As more names have shifted into the approaching oversold range, here's what I am looking for which could signal that a minor rebound is possible: (1) Improving candle structure across several name and sectors for e.g. long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles (2) volume which will signal initial buying interest (3) Numbers 1 and 2 at prior support zones or in line with/extended from key moving average (4) RSI and MACD bullish divergence.
DAX INDEX. Bullish-to-Bearish Reversal in motion. Now in the money by 700 points.
HAR (7%) and GFI (+3.8%) rebound in line with TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE. HAR was also discussed on Monday pre-market.
Wednesday 04-October-2023, 08h17 STRATEGY SCREEN: Shares That Have Been Sold Aggressively and Where A Positive Candle Structure Could Signal a Slowdown Of Selling Momentum. [Medium Term Time Frame, But Remain Cognizant Of The Short Term Time Frame].
Wednesday 04-October-2023, 06h30 Relative Sector Ratings: 4 Major Time Frames, at yesterday's close.
Wednesday 04-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Technical Summary: Short Term, at yesterday's close.
Tuesday 03-October-2023, 14h40 FX: Tactical Trading Guide.
Tuesday 03-October-2023, 08h08 Update: JSE Top 40 Index. Now down by 11.5% or -8535 points from my note on 24 January titled '6 Factors That Suggested An Appealing Reward-To-Risk For Sellers'. It's also trading at the lowest level since November.
Tuesday 03-October-2023, 07h58 STRATEGY SCREEN (Short Term time Frame): Reward-To-Risk Becoming Attractive For A Small Buy/long Position. Tickers: FSR. MTN, N91, NED, NRP, NY1, VOD
Tuesday 03-October-2023, 07h29 Investec Ltd (INL). Potential Sell/Short Setup.
Tuesday 03-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Technical Summary: Short Term, at yesterday's close.
Monday 02-October-2023, 21h12 Sanlam SLM. Full short/sell target reached during today's trading session. Full gain = 5.7% ungeared. Chart as at 16h24.
Monday 02-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Top 40 Index Q4 Seasonality (20-Year Data). Comments on chart.
Monday 02-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Technical Summary: Short Term
Monday 02-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Coal Miners. Previously I highlighted buy ideas on both EXX at R145 (high of R185) and TGA at R134 (high of R170) while also discussing the equally-weighted relative chart versus the Top 40 Index. This is an updated chart of JSE Coal Miners Relative To JSE Top 40 Index which is a printing it's first test of it's declining 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The combination of ultra short term/short term high bullish momentum/approaching overbought conditions could see a consolidation/minor retracement on a relative basis.
Monday 02-October-2023, 06h30 JSE PGMs Relative To JSE Top 40 Index. A simple price chart highlighting the weekly RSI breaking out. This data point may point to a change of relative trend over the medium term.
Monday 02-October-2023, 06h30 Harmony Gold (HAR, 7103c). For ultra short term traders, the share's declining from it's recent peak of 8580c to it's low of 6997c on Friday may be worth noting. According to Friday's end of day Tactical Trading Guide, the SHORT TERM reading states "aggressive selling, wait for lower time frames to stabilize" while the MEDIUM TERM reading states "persistently weak, however monitor if it can reclaim the prior session lows for a bullish reversal trade". Here, the pivot becomes Friday's lows of 6997c meaning that if the share trades below this level, it would need to reclaim it to support a bullish reversal trade. Note this might not trigger today however traders should be alert to the price action/change in candle structure.
Monday 02-October-2023, 06h30 Woolworths (WHL, 6783c). Approaching short term levels of Interest.
Monday 02-October-2023, 06h30 Richemont Relative To Top 40 Index. Upper Panel= CFR vs Top 40 Index. Lower Panel = 63-Day (Quarterly) Drawdown. The current drawdown is one of the largest we have seen over the past decade.
Monday 02-October-2023, 06h30 STRATEGY SCREEN: Medium To Long Term Time Frame: After A General Downward Trend, Buyers Are Showing Interest (Readings Are Subject To Change Based On The Development Of The Price Action). Tickers: AGL, AMS, MRP, NTC, PIK
(Readings Are Subject To Change Based On The Development Of The Price Action).
Monday 02-October-2023, 06h30 STRATEGY SCREEN (Short Term time Frame): Reward-To-Risk Becoming Attractive For A Small Buy/long Position. Tickers: DSY, GFI, HCI, REM, WHL
(Readings Are Subject To Change Based On The Development Of The Price Action).
Monday 02-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Tactical Trading Guide For The Industrials Sector. To access the other sector, click on the image below.
Monday 02-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Sector Ratings Relative To The Broader Market
Friday 29-Sep-2023, 12h57 FX: Tactical Trading Guide.
Friday 29-Sep-2023, 09h37 Key Market Ratings. To access, click on the following link:
Friday 29-Sep-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. To access, click on the following link:
Thursday 28-Sep-2023, 20h16 JSE Technical Summary at today's close.
Thursday 28-Sep-2023, 07h50 Sasol Ltd (SOL). Consider the automated commentary from yesterday's end of day Tactical Trading Guide in conjunction with the chart that follows.
Thursday 28-Sep-2023, 07h50 Sasol Ltd (SOL). Daily Chart With Potential Price Path(s)
Thursday 28-Sep-2023, 07h17 MTN Group (MTN, 11262c). Analyzing different time frames can give you different views. On Monday 11 September I updated my view on the share by including my perspective of the weekly chart which, at 12200c showed the potential for a further resolution to the downside. On Tuesday the share reached a low of 11132c. The weekly chart on Monday 11 September was presented as follows:
Thursday 28-Sep-2023, 07h17 MTN Group (MTN, 11262c). Both the SHORT TERM and MEDIUM TERM readings via the Tactical Trading Guide stated the following at yesterday's close of trade: "Reward-to-risk becoming attractive for a small buy/long position". Over the past two days, we have seen small signs of slowdown in selling momentum, with the share holding near the prior breakout level. Do note that previously traders were alerted to a sell/short idea from an excessively overbought condition above the R140 level.
Wednesday 27-Sep-2023, 19h44 JSE Technical Summary at today's close.
Wednesday 27-Sep-2023, 14h40 Aspen Pharmacare (APN). Full target reached/exceeded on buy/long re-entry trade idea, with the share reaching a high of 18268c today vs the entry range of 16000c/16400c Bank/Take Profit. Chart is 'current'.
Wednesday 27-Sep-2023, 14h09 South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield. To access the full note, please click on the chart below.
Wednesday 27-Sep-2023, 06h30 Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP). Next Best Probability Trade Levels. Comments on Slide Below.
Wednesday 27-Sep-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Resources. To access the other major sectors, click on the table below:
Wednesday 27-Sep-2023, 05h51 Key Markets: Ratings
Tuesday 26-Sep-2023, 21h14 JSE Technical Summary at today's close.
Tuesday 26-Sep-2023, 10h44 Update: JSE Top 40 Index. This morning the JSE Top 40 Index was down by 11% from my call at the beginning of the year when I presented a note called: "6 Factors Which Suggests An Attractive Reward-To-Risk For Sellers" (24 January). We saw the market peak three days late on 27-January. Well done to all who took the opportunity to reduce their risk.
Tuesday 26-Sep-2023, 10h17 Strategy Comment: I prefer to take my direction from various statistical and technical data points, which is an attempt to eliminate most of the bias that comes with decision-making/presenting an opinion. On this basis, my idea coming into last week was that financials were likely to get pushed lower before reversing and that miners were likely to be pushed higher before encountering a bearish reversal. We saw this unfold from the middle of the week as market participants opted to bid up financials and offering miners that lead to aggressive selling pressure. Reviewing the summary of the technical screen, there is no clear bias either way, with the majority of shares trading in the neutral category and to a lesser extent, in the weak category while at an index level, the bias has been to the downside, with the market now near a multi-month low and at the lower end of it's year-to-date range, driven by global growth concerns but more so by the pace at which bond yields have continued to rise over the past few weeks. At the time of writing, the US 10-Year is trading above 4.50% - a multi-year high. In terms of breadth (a measure of underlying strength), the majority of major US sectors are seeing less than 20% of their constituents above their 20-day moving averages. Those that are above, but only by a small margin, are Utilities, Energy and Financials. Sticking with breadth, new lows are outpacing new highs by a wide margin.
Tuesday 26-Sep-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Banks.
To access the other major sectors, click on the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/tactical-trading-guide
Tuesday 26-Sep-2023, 06h30 Truworths Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index. In the upper panel is the price of Truworths relative to the Top 40 Index. When the line is rising, it means that TRU is outperforming the broader market. When the line is falling, it means that TRU is underperforming the broader market. The lower panel shows the ratio's distance vs it's 200-day SMA. While the relative price is in a high bullish momentum phase, it is also possibly approaching an overbought range with the ratio being 30% above it's 40-wk/200-Day SMA. Bottom Line: TRU is nearing an expensive technical level relative to the broader market.
Tuesday 26-Sep-2023, 06h30 Bidvest Group (BVT). Buy/Long Target Has Been Reached - Bank/Take Profit. Chart is 'current/at last close'.
Tuesday 26-Sep-2023, 06h30 JSE Technical Summary of Ratings: Short Term
Tuesday 26-Sep-2023, 06h30 JSE Sector Ratings Relative To The Market
Friday 22-Sep-2023, 06h30 The second leg of my two-part trading thesis for this week came into effect yesterday with resources/mining shares being sold off aggressively following the minor further advance early in the week. As noted at the start of this week: "...While some mining shares are in a high bullish momentum/approaching overbought phase. Here, one scenario is that these share continues to be bought but trades into overbought territory which can provide an opportunity to sell into strength...".
Both AMS and SSW dropping sharply intraday, in line with the Tactical Trading Guide which looked for a short/sell on the failure to hold the prior session highs. Both were highlighted yesterday morning, here
My mining share watchlist at around 3pm yesterday...red, red, red. Anyone take advantage of the opportunity to short/sell?
Friday 22-Sep-2023, 06h30 Pepkor Holdings (PPH). As at the close of yesterday's trading session, the Tactical Trading Guide for the SHORT TERM time frame read as follows: "Aggressive buying but do not chase. Look for overshoot or failure to hold the prior session range highs to short/sell back to the 8-EMA". This means that should the share print a candle that reflects selling into strength ('doji', 'dark cloud cover' or 'bearish engulfing', that could signal the start of a bearish reversal over the ultra short term. Do not that this process could, for example, take 1-4 trading sessions before the potential reversal commences. Candle confirmation required.
Pepkor Holdings (PPH). Do note that previously I alerted to the downside risk on the share in February at 1991c, which was followed by a substantial decline over the following months by reaching a low of 1330c on 30 May. Original chart below (07 February).
Friday 22-Sep-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide (Top 20 By Market Cap). Readings are subject to change based on the subsequent development the price action.
Friday 22-Sep-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings as at yesterday's close.
Thursday 21-Sep-2023, 06h30 At the start of this week I answered a question which I thought some readers would be interested in knowing: "Is it too late to sell/short financials and (2) Is it too late to buy resources shares? As stated: "My answer to those questions will always begin with the following comment: "It depends on your time horizon". Over the ultra short term (1 to 3 days) some banking shares in are in a high bearish momentum/approaching oversold phase. Here, one scenario is that these share continue to be sold off but trade into oversold territory which can provide an opportunity to buy an ultra short term oversold bounce". The first three days of this week was characterized by exactly that. A further (and slight) push into oversold followed by a strong rebound seen on Tuesday and yesterday, with banking shares in particular finding support in their short term oversold conditions while resources shares have started to unwind from their ultra short term overbought conditions (I also highlighted this last week Friday afternoon on the relative sector ratings sheet).
Within the financial sector, I'm slightly disappointed that my short/sell idea on Sanlam has gone back to flat (after being in the money) however Absa shares saw aggressive buying, rising by 6.3% by the close of trade - the BIGGEST gainer on the Top 40 for the session. Yesterday morning, ABG was 1 of 9 shares which I compiled from the Tactical Trading Guide also 1 of 3 shares which stated that the "reward-to-risk was becoming attractive for a buy/long position" (scroll down if you missed the table) This table was highlighted yesterday (pre-market) on this page. Nedbank (NED), which was discussed on Tuesday, also rose from R200 to nearly R209 during over the 2 days. In addition, Growthpoint (GRT), which I highlighted on Tuesday, was higher by over 4% yesterday. Clicks (CLS) exceeded the short/sell target and and developed a bullish reversal to close higher by over 3%. This was in line with buy/long highlighted on this page yesterday morning. On an absolute basis, Netcare has had a few strong sessions, lifting off the lows while (signal at 1300c) while on a relative basis, the long Netcare/short Life Healthcare market neutral (pair trade) idea is now higher by 6.5%. Well done to all who picked up on these moves.
Absa Group (ABG). Daily Chart as at yesterday's close.
Thursday 21-Sep-2023, 06h30 In mining space, the buy/long ideas in AGL and KIO have exceeded their targets and are now in a consolidation phase while Anglogold Ashanti (ANG) is closing in on the short term target of 34800c. At this stage of the short term price trends, traders should be looking to bank/take profit in the name.
Thursday 21-Sep-2023, 06h30 Considering the Technical Summary on this page, there are no names in the approaching oversold and oversold categories. The majority of the shares trade in the 'neutral' and 'strong' categories. In this case, it's more a case of buying retracements into their 8/21-day EMA's, if and when the share price do reach these levels. Some names such as KIO are in a consolidation phase and are yet to retrace to the 8-EMA. To add, we want to buy retracements when the price pulls back into a rising 8/21-EMA Exponential Moving Average.
Thursday 21-Sep-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide as at yesterday's close. (The automated data was not available via e-mail however I was able to manually extract it. To avoid clutter, I've only included 17 names which I think is relevant. The data covers about 70 to 80 shares ).
Wednesday 20-Sep-2023, 18h13 JSE Sector Technical Ratings as at today's close.
Wednesday 20-Sep-2023, 17h36 JSE Technical Ratings (Short Term) as at today's close.
Wednesday 20-Sep-2023, 08h29 Firstrand Ltd (FSR, 6481c). An optimal level to cover your short position. The share is has been sold off aggressively and at yesterday's low was down by 12.9% (ungeared) from my note on 31-August which highlighted the bearish distance divergence and potential for a short/sell trade (published here). The 7-day RSI is at 7 which is a level that is rarely seen among large cap shares. This bring the short term rating at the last close to oversold. In terms of the technical chart, the share is trading around the prior breakout level.
Wednesday 20-Sep-2023, 06h30 MTN approaching ultra short term levels of interest. The share is down sharply from my previous view in June of selling the overbought conditions above R140, reaching R116 during yesterday's trading session. Further notes on the chart below.
Wednesday 20-Sep-2023, 06h30 MTN Group. My short/sell view, with potential price path, as highlighted in my research on 12 June.
Wednesday 20-Sep-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Time-permitting, I'll start adding comments from the Tactical Trading Guide on this page. Below are relevant comments in 9 highly liquid/large cap names.
Wednesday 20-Sep-2023, 06h30 JSE Technical Ratings (Short Term) as at yesterday's close.
Tuesday 19-Sep-2023, 18h46 TFG - Strong session (+8.3%). Target reached. Bank/Take Profit. The share traded into the buy zone (earnings-related sell-off) then consolidated before rallying.
TFG. Idea as at 05 Sept.
Tuesday 19-Sep-2023, 08h14 Nedbank (NED, 20107c). Technical views on both the short term and long term time frames. View #1 (Short Term): At yesterday's close of trade, the Tactical Trading Guide for the share stated the following for the SHORT TERM time frame: "Reward-to-risk becoming attractive for a buy/long position" while the MEDIUM TERM time frame stated: "Aggressive Selling. Wait for the lower time frames (1H, 2H, 4H) to stabilize". Considering the momentum readings, the short term price trend ranks as oversold while the medium term price trend ranks as high bearish momentum/approaching oversold. Incorporating the 'distance' vs the 50/100-EMA, I've noticed a bullish divergence which often signals a pending reversal. The current pivot is yesterday's low of 20020c. As a risk management measure, I would like to see today's candle confirm that the aggressive selling is starting to slow down which will support the aforementioned readings. Preferably, a 'doji', 'long lower tail', 'bullish engulfing' could be developed which could be an early indication of some buying activity.
Nedbank Group. View #2 (Long Term): Analyzing the weekly chart, I've noticed that the 14-week RSI is at a 3-year low. New highs on the RSI are bullish. New lows on the RSI are bearish. Know your time horizon.
Tuesday 19-Sep-2023, 07h57 Aspen Pharmacare (APN, 17102c). Bullish Reversal, In The Money. The share traded into my preferred re-entry/buy zone of 16000c-16400c (low of 16100c) and has since developed a bullish reversal to close at a 2 1/2-week high of 17102c. The full short term target is around 17600c but traders could also consider reducing into strength.
Tuesday 19-Sep-2023, 07h30 Anglogold Ashanti (ANG, 34191c). The bull flag (discussed here) is playing out, with the share closing yesterday's session at a 5-week high of 34191c and nearing the target of 34880c (from 32350c). Short term traders can look to reduce into strength. According to yesterday's end of day Tactical Trading Guide, the SHORT TERM time frame was as follows: "Aggressive buying but do not chase. Look for overshoot or failure to hold the prior session highs to short/sell back to the 8-EMA." while the MEDIUM TERM time frame stated: "Strong candle structure (bullish attempt) following a generally weaker downward trend".
Tuesday 19-Sep-2023, 07h10 Growthpoint Properties (GRT, 1097c). At yesterday's close of trade, the Tactical Trading Guide for the share stated the following for the SHORT TERM time frame: "Reward-to-risk becoming attractive for a buy/long position" while the MEDIUM TERM time frame stated: "Aggressive Selling. Wait for the lower time frames (1H, 2H, 4H) to stabilize". Considering the momentum readings, the short term price trend ranks as oversold while the medium term price trend ranks as high bearish momentum/approaching oversold. As a risk management measure, I would like to see today's candle confirm that the aggressive selling is starting to slow down which will support the aforementioned readings. Preferably, a 'doji', 'long lower tail', 'bullish engulfing' could be developed which could be an early indication of some buying activity. One scenario is that we could see the price trade below yesterday's low and then reclaim and start to build a base for a bullish reversal trade.
Growthpoint Properties (GRT). For context, the monthly chart (long term view) continues to reflect a multi-year downward trend. The chart/slide below, as discussed in May of this year.
Tuesday 19-Sep-2023, 06h30 Mondi Plc (MNP). The group announced that it has entered into an agreement to sell its last remaining facility in Russia, Mondi Syktyvkar for approximately €775 million. The market's reaction was positive, sending the shares higher by 4.6% at one point during the trading session, reaching a high of 33134c) The move is in line with my previous view for a higher share price (target 33800c), motivated by both technical and fundamental factors, discussed here and here.
Monday 18-Sep-2023, 20h58 Woolworths Holdings (WHL, 703c). With the current macro backdrop, part of my concern with retail shares is (1) the rand-oil price (trading at a multi-month high) and (2) the high uncertainty around loadshedding. The share has continued to trade lower since it's earnings report and is unwinding from it's massive overextension vs it's 200-week moving average (highlighted/discussed on 13/08). Technically, the 29 June swing lows is a short term, level of interest which is in line with the breakout seen in early January. Today's around 13:05pm I requested a short term reading which stated that: "Reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position" while the medium term reading stated that: "Aggressive selling. Wait for lower time frames (1H, 2H, 4H) to stabilize" This could mean that a minor rebound is possible in the ultra short term. (Going forward, to incorporate further risk management, I would prefer to wait for the price action/candle structure to confirm what the automated reading suggesting).
Monday 18-Sep-2023, 18h07 JSE Technical Ratings (Short Term) as at today's close.
Sunday 17-Sep-2023, Pre-Market Asian Session Key Theme: Rotation. In recent weeks I have highlighted 3 charts, presenting the case for a rotation from Financials shares to Resources shares. Last week we saw this scenario unfold with the JSE mining shares outperforming while JSE financial shares lagged/came under pressure. On the long (buy) side, traders were alerted to opportunities in AGL, KIO, TGA, BTI, EXX, APN, DSY, which performed in line with expectations. On the short (sell) side, traders were alerted opportunities in FSR, SHP, RNI, CLS which also performed in line with expectations. SLM is still in play (and in the money), gradually working it's way lower. In terms of market neutral/pair ideas, buy GRT vs sell RDF did not materialize/reverse as anticipated as it continued to trade lower however 'buy BTI vs sell RNI' is higher by 9%, 'buy ANG vs sell GFI' was higher by 10% at one point this week after having surged on Friday. Buy AGL vs sell BHG was higher by 7.8% at Friday's high. To trade, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923
Monday 18-Sep-2023, 06h30 It might be that someone reading this wants to know: "Is it too late to sell/short financials and (2) Is it too late to buy resources shares? My answer to those questions will always begin with the following comment: "It depends on your time horizon". Over the ultra short term (1 to 3 days) some banking shares in are in a high bearish momentum/approaching oversold phase. Here, one scenario is that these share continue to be sold off but trade into oversold territory which can provide an opportunity to buy an ultra short term oversold bounce. While some mining shares are in a high bullish momentum/approaching overbought phase. Here, one scenario is that these share continue to be bought but trade into overbought territory which can provide an opportunity to sell into strength. Reviewing the sector ratings, my conclusion is that the rotation may only just be getting stated meaning that while prices have overshot in both directions on both the long and short side, the reversal may not be over and are only starting to develop. Know your time horizon.
Monday 18-Sep-2023, 06h30 Click Group (CLS). Portfolio View. The share has continued to position itself below it's 200-week moving average, which, from a portfolio perspective, reflects a significant shift for long term holders of the share. The positioning also reflects an unwind on a fundamental valuation basis, with the share at a 24 price-to-earnings ratio, which is well above the market's and sector's valuation.
CLS - Fundamental Snapshot. P/Earnings at 24x. P/Book at 11x.
Monday 18-Sep-2023, 06h30 Bidvest Group Relative To JSE Top 40 Index. Relative to the broader market, the share is losing it's upward momentum. This suggests a potential shift from overweight to neutral on a relative basis.
Monday 18-Sep-2023, 06h30 Bid Corp (BID, 44631c). Is BID Technically Expensive? Relative to the broader market (using the 200-Day SMA), the ratio recently traded at 21% above the 200-Day SMA. Historically, this has been a range from where the the ratio has started to retrace i.e. at this level traders would look to shift back to a Neutral position (from Overweight). At Friday's close, the ratio's distance was 16%. On an absolute basis among shares with a +R20bn market cap, BID trades with the highest 7-month RSI, that being 80.
Monday 18-Sep-2023, 06h30 MRP vs TRU. Over 3 months, there is a 40% performance gap between the two shares. TRU is higher by 29% and MRP down by 11%. Considering the long term chart highlighting performance, the two shares are highly correlated while the recent performance gap may be opening a market neutral/pair trade in the near term i.e. buy MRP vs sell TRU. Ratio at last close: 1.74
Sunday 17-Sep-2023, Pre-Market Asia Iron Ore Futures (FEF, $122). Although I do keep track of the price, I don't often chart this commodity. Today I will. My last view was in November at $93 where I discussed the weekly chart which was rebounding off a long term demand/supply zone extending back to 2017. Since then we have seen strong upside follow-through with the $130 level being tested in March, followed by a retracement to $97. Since the May 2023 lows, the price has advanced, reaching a high of $123.75. Also noted is the commodity reclaiming a 2-year downward trend line extending back to the July 2021 peak. The 14-Week RSI is at 60, reflecting healthy medium term momentum.
Iron Ore: As discussed at $93 on 25-Nov-2022
Sunday 17-Sep-2023, Pre-Market Asia Macro Ratings
Monday 18-Sep-2023, 06h30 Exxaro Resources. Target Reached. A strong move with the share advancing by 27% over the 5 weeks. The idea was to buy in the R145 range, with a target at R180. On Friday, the share reached a high of +R186. Well done to all who took advantage of the opportunity. As discussed on Monday 08 August. Original slide (thesis and chart) below.
Friday 15-Sep-2023, 17h49 JSE Technical Ratings (Short Term) as at today's close.
