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  • Lester Davids

Research: Insights & Opportunities - Monday, 11 March 2024

Updated: Mar 10

To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk:

E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923


Lester Davids

Analyst: Unum Capital


 


06h30 | Market Dashboard as of Friday's close



06h30 | JSE Sectors vs Moving Averages, as of Friday afternoon:



06h30 | JSE Relative Sector Ratings, as of Friday’s close (Sector Relative To The Top 40 Index)



06h30 | Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps, as of Friday's close.



06h30 | JSE Relative Sector Regimes, as of Friday’s afternoon.


Top 40, Technology, Diversified Miners, Banks, Insurers



Gold Miners, Platinum Miners, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Pharmaceuticals & Hospitals



Coal Miners, Telecoms, Paper & Pulp, Chemicals, Luxury Goods, USD/ZAR



06h30 | SBK Standard Bank | Recently (19-Feb) I highlighted data which showed both positive and negative aspects of the share. Included in this was the share price trading 37% above it’s 200-week SMA (technically extended by historical measures). From R208, the share has since retreated by 1200c to a low of R196 (last close 19735c). As per Friday’s Tactical Trading Guide, the readings for the 3 time frames are as follows:


Note the LONG TERM time frame (column to the far right) which states that the 50-week moving average could be a re-entry zone). At the last close, this level is at 18633c, however is subject to change.


 


06h30 | BVT Bidvest Group. Wednesday’s end of day reading from the tactical trading guide stated that the following: SHORT TERM (1-10 days) “Would not enter buy/long here. The buy/long reward-to-risk is unattractive”. MEDIUM TERM (2-4 weeks) “The general trend is up, however, look for failure to hold prior sessions highs to initiate a 1 to 2 day short/sell setup”. On Thursday the share printed a doji candle (indecision) followed by a bearish engulfing candle on Friday. The R261 to R263 range appears to be a resistance area while the 8-EMA (around R250) is a logical downside target as well as support zone.




06h30 | Overbought In The Short Term: How To Approach These Shares



06h30 | TECHNICAL SCREEN: Oversold Within A Strong Bearish Trend. See slide below:



06h30 | Higher Time Frames Tend To Dominate | While some shares appear in the SHORT TERM OVERBOUGHT category, it is also important to consider the higher trading time frames. Shares such as ADH, HAR and DCP have had massive moves however a share such as ARI is not as extended as the aforementioned and may have the ability to continue it’s move higher over the medium term. The focus in the data set below is on the LONG TERM TRADING TIME FRAME I.e, 5 to 8 weeks. Although they are all overbought over the last 7 trading sessions, Note the differences in readings.



06h30 | Speaking of African Rainbow Minerals (ARI)…we have seen strong upside follow-through from the 14-November view which looked for a channel break and change of trend. Was R167 at the time, recent high = R203 (02 January).



06h30 | Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap. Click here to access the data set => https://www.unum.capital/post/tactical-trading-guide



06h30 | Offshore markets have offered an enormous amount of trading opportunities. Most recently (11 January), global insurers and re-insurers was a group which appeared on one of my custom screeners. To trade global shares, you will need an offshore account.


ORIGINAL


FOLLOW-UP (The yellow vertical line represents the day of the original chart)


Lester Davids

Analyst: Unum Capital


 

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