JSE Relative Sector Analysis

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026

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The first six weeks of 2026 have witnessed a definitive shift in market character. At the close of 2025, the market displayed tentative defensiveness with scattered strength in precious metals. By mid-February, this has morphed into an aggressive "risk-on" bid for South African domestic plays ("SA Inc"). The most significant development is the decoupling of the financial cluster from the broader consumer economy; while banks and insurers are surging, the consumer discretionary sector remains entrenched in a deep bear market. This divergence suggests a market that is aggressively front-running macro-economic policy shifts rather than reacting to current ground-level economic reality.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital