JSE Sector Rotation: Year-To-Date Changes

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026

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Published on Tuesday 24 February (post-market), for Wednesday, 25 February.

31 December 2025 24 February 2026

This multi-time frame analysis tracks shifting momentum profiles across 14 equally-weighted JSE sectors relative to the Top 40 index over an eight-week trading period.

1. 🔄 Overall, the JSE breadth has experienced a massive expansion in volatility; the total number of "Neutral" readings across all timeframes has plummeted from approximately 45% of the board in December down to just 33% today.

2. 📈 Bullish momentum has essentially doubled across the broader market, with the total count of "Strong" regime classifications jumping from just 7 instances at the end of 2025 to 14 instances by late February.

3. 📉 Conversely, deep oversold extremes are expanding, highlighting a bifurcated market where capital is rapidly fleeing laggards to chase emerging cyclical strength.

4. 💻 The Technology sector has seen a distinct deterioration since the end of 2025. What was previously a "Weak" long-term trend has now collapsed entirely into an "Oversold" state, with short-term momentum reaching highly bearish extremes. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: High Risk / High Reward (Contrarian mean-reversion setup)]

5. 📉 Statistically, Technology is currently the worst-performing relative sector on the board, being the only group to register an "Oversold" medium-term regime alongside its deeply oversold long-term baseline.

6. ⛏️ General Miners have staged a massive bullish turnaround. Upgrading from a weak long-term stance in December, they now boast a "Strong" long-term position and highly bullish medium-term momentum. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Moderate (Strong momentum, but elevated medium-term pullback risk)]

7. 🚀 The sheer velocity of the Miners' move is statistically significant, representing a rare "triple-upgrade" across long, medium, and short-term profiles in just 39 trading days.

8. 🏦 Banks have also enjoyed a very solid upgrade in their underlying trends. Their previously neutral long and medium-term regimes have successfully transitioned into a definitively "Strong" status over the last eight weeks. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Good (Strong trend with favorable short-term consolidation for entry)]

9. 📊 This signifies a major institutional accumulation phase for Banks, shifting 66% of their trend metrics from stagnant to actively bullish without overextending their short-term oscillator profiles.

10. 🛡️ Insurers, however, have not participated in this broader financial sector uplift. Their positioning remains completely static, stuck in a weak long-term trend with neutral medium and short-term indicators. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Poor (Lacking directional momentum and baseline strength)]

11. 📉 The statistical divergence between Banks and Insurers is glaring; while Banks captured strong relative flows, Insurers experienced exactly zero momentum shifts across all three measured time horizons.

12. 🥇 Gold Miners have experienced an acceleration in their upward trajectory. Their long-term momentum, previously approaching overbought levels, has now officially triggered an "Overbought" regime, while short-term strength has strongly returned. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Low (Overbought extremes present high pullback risk for new entries)]

13. ⚠️ Statistically, Gold Miners are currently printing the most extended upper-bound readings on the board, holding the singular "Overbought" long-term rating across all 14 tracked sectors.

14. 💎 Platinum Miners stand out as the most consistent performers on the board. They have maintained a completely unbroken "Strong" regime across all three timeframes since the end of last year. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Excellent (Full bullish alignment across all measured time frames)]

15. 🏆 With a 100% hold rate on their "Strong" classifications from December to February, Platinum Miners boast the lowest momentum volatility and highest relative trend stability of the entire group.

16. 🛒 Consumer Staples are showing the first signs of a potential breakout. While their long and medium-term trends remain stubbornly neutral, their short-term momentum has upgraded from neutral to "Strong." [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Moderate (Short-term breakout requires longer-term confirmation)]

17. 📈 This represents a 33% improvement in the Staples' overall trend profile, suggesting early defensive rotations are beginning to gain traction on shorter time horizons.

18. 🛍️ Consumer Discretionary presents a highly mixed and volatile picture. The long-term trend remains heavily bearish, but a sudden surge of buying has pushed the short-term regime into highly bullish territory. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: High Risk (Conflicting extremes between long and short-term trends)]

19. ⚡ This sector is displaying the widest statistical momentum spread in the market, pinning the needle at "High Bearish" on the long-term while simultaneously hitting "High Bullish" in the short-term.

20. 🏥 Hospitals have mounted an impressive recovery over the past two months. While still fighting a weak long-term trend, both their medium and short-term regimes have flipped from neutral to "Strong." [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Moderate to Good (Developing counter-trend recovery)]

21. 📈 Hospitals represent one of the most statistically robust short-term reversals, converting 66% of their trend profile from neutral stagnation into active relative outperformance.

22. ⬛ Coal Miners remain entirely unchanged and uninspiring. They continue to languish with a weak long-term outlook and entirely neutral medium and short-term indicators, showing no real momentum either way. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Poor (Stagnant momentum and weak underlying trend)]

23. 📉 Along with Insurers, Coal Miners are the only other sector to register a 0% change across all momentum indicators between the December and February closing readings.

24. 📡 Telecoms have seen a slight smoothing of their momentum curves. Their short-term strength from December has cooled to neutral, but this energy seems to have transferred into a newly "Strong" medium-term trend. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Good (Constructive medium-term strength currently consolidating)]

25. 📊 This sector displays classic rotational consolidation, trading a 100% drop in short-term strength for a 100% upgrade in medium-term trend stability.

26. 📄 The Paper & Pulp sector continues to struggle under persistent selling pressure. The long-term picture remains deeply oversold, and short-term momentum has actively deteriorated from neutral to "Weak." [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Poor (Persistent downward momentum across time frames)]

27. 📉 Statistically, Paper & Pulp is locked in a negative feedback loop, with 100% of its timeframes now registering in the bottom tier of momentum (Oversold/Weak/Weak).

28. 🧪 Chemicals offer perhaps the most dramatic recovery story of the new year. Shaking off a highly bearish long-term and weak medium-term setup in December, they are now printing "Strong" medium and short-term regimes. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Good (Emerging bullish alignment on shorter time frames)]

29. 🚀 This structural turnaround is the most statistically aggressive on the board, shaking off a "High Bearish" long-term anchor to capture dual-strong readings in the faster timeframes.

30. 👜 Luxury Goods have unfortunately lost further ground since the close of 2025. Their medium-term indicator has slipped from neutral to "Weak," aligning with their ongoing long-term weakness. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Poor (Entrenched weakness with no signs of reversal)]

31. 📉 This sector is showing a 33% degradation in its momentum profile, steadily leaking relative strength as it slides deeper into multi-timeframe weakness.

32. 📊 Looking at the broader transition matrix, 35% of the tracked timeframes experienced a positive upgrade between December and February, indicating an overarching bullish tilt in JSE sector internals.

33. 📉 Conversely, only 14% of the tracked timeframes suffered a momentum downgrade, confirming that buying pressure is currently outpacing selling pressure on a relative basis.

34. ⚡ Extreme readings (High Bullish/Overbought or High Bearish/Oversold) have increased from 11% of all signals in December to 19% in February, pointing to rising institutional conviction.

35. ⚖️ The data reveals a strong preference for resources and heavy industry over the last two months, while rate-sensitive sectors like Tech and Luxury are absorbing the brunt of the capital flight.

36. 🔄 Mid-term timeframes showed the highest degree of regime volatility, acting as the primary transition zone where early year rotations were first confirmed.

37. 🏁 In conclusion, the JSE sector landscape has aggressively transitioned from a state of broad neutrality in late 2025 into a highly polarized, high-velocity rotational market in 2026.

38. 📈 Investors are clearly favoring established cyclical strength and aggressive counter-trend recoveries, completely abandoning sectors that fail to maintain upward relative momentum.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital