Trading Sasol: The Risks For Both Longs & Shorts

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za

Current Phase: 🔴 Sell on Rally / Lower High Rejection

Next Best-Probability Phase: 🔴 High-Level Chop / Volatility Digestion

Strategic Overlay: Tactical Exhaustion.

Tactical Risk Assessment: Opening vs. Holding

• Buying & Long Positions

  • Risk for New Buy Entries: High entry risk. You are initiating a position into a mathematically stretched daily tape that has run vertically into a major multi-year structural resistance zone. With daily oscillators currently rolling over from extremes, the primary risk is a sharp mean-reversion drawdown toward the 18,500c – 19,500c zone to reset the indicators.

  • Risk for Existing Long Positions: Significant profit erosion risk. Failure to protect gains at this multi-year "Change of Polarity" level invites the risk of being caught in a violent tactical reversal.

  • What Can Change? If institutional buyers aggressively absorb overhead supply and force a definitive weekly close above 24,000c, it would invalidate the exhaustion thesis and signal a parabolic shift toward the next macro target.

    
    

• Selling & Short Positions

  • Risk for New Short Entries: You are stepping in front of a monthly momentum pulse that has just crossed into a bullish regime. While the daily chart is exhausted, the higher timeframes are attempting to arrest a multi-year markdown. You risk being caught in a high-velocity squeeze if the macro bid persists.

  • Risk for Existing Short Positions: Existential risk if positioned for new lows. The structural bottom appears defended, and holding a short through a monthly hook invites uncapped drawdown as the secular trend shifts.

  • What Can Change? If the daily price structure definitively slices through 19,500c on expanding volume, it mechanically confirms that the tactical relief rally has ended and the structural markdown has resumed.

---

READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS

For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital.

The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include:

• Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes

• Momentum indicators

• Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance

• Candle structure

• Moving averages and standard deviation

Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.

THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

• It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:

• The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.

• Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)

• Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position

• Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)

• Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.

• Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)

• Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)

• Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal

• Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend

• Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)

• Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)

• Whether a share lacks directional bias.

• The data set is available in real-time (on request)

• The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital