top of page

Trading Spot Platinum: Current Reward-To-Risk

  • Writer: Lester Davids
    Lester Davids
  • Jun 9
  • 3 min read

Free Content: June 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjune2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za

NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes


Free Content


Momentum Regime: 🟥 High Bearish Momentum / Breakdown

vs 8-day EMA | 🟥 Below (1,816.59)

vs 21-day EMA | 🟥 Below (1,892.97)

vs 75-day EMA | 🟥 Below (1,973.22)

vs 200-day | 🟥 Below (1,883.88)

vs 21-week EMA | 🟥 Below (1,935.30)

vs 50-week EMA | 🟥 Below (1,780.65)


Candle Structure: 🟥 Poor / Severe Bearish Expansion (Sharp impulsive breakdown below major long-term support)

Next Probability Phase: 🟥 Capitulation Then 🟧 Support Search

What Can Change?: 🟩 A violent snap-back rally that reclaims the 50-week EMA (~1,780) and the 200-day moving average (~1,883) would be required to trap breakdown shorts and stabilize the technical posture.

Buy/Long Reward-To-Risk: Poor (Catching a falling knife; price has cleanly broken below all major macro moving averages)

Sell/Short Reward-To-Risk: Moderate (Momentum is heavily downward and support has broken, but the current move is already significantly extended, increasing the risk of sharp oversold bounces)


Scenario Analysis

  • Base Case: Bearish momentum dominates in the near term. The price may attempt weak, low-volume relief rallies that get aggressively sold by trapped longs trying to exit. The broken 50-week EMA (~1,780) flips from long-term support to strong overhead resistance as downward price discovery continues.

  • Bull Case: This severe drop proves to be an extreme capitulation event or a macro liquidity grab. Deep-pocketed buyers step in aggressively at these extended levels, forcing a rapid close back above the 50-week EMA. This traps late-arriving momentum shorts and triggers a volatile reversion back up toward the 200-day moving average (~1,883).

  • Bear Case: Panic selling accelerates following the loss of the 200-day and 50-week moving averages. With the technical floor completely broken, the asset enters a freefall phase, printing consecutive large red expansion candles until it finds much lower historical horizontal support zones.



READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS


For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital.


The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include:

  • Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes

  • Momentum indicators

  • Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance

  • Candle structure

  • Moving averages and standard deviation


Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.


THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

  • It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:

  • The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.

  • Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)

  • Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position

  • Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)

  • Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.

  • Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)

  • Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)

  • Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal

  • Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend

  • Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)

  • Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)

  • Whether a share lacks directional bias.

  • The data set is available in real-time (on request)

  • The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.


Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Comments

bottom of page