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This update is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Boxer Running +6.7% and approaching 8400c target. Short term traders can consider scaling out of the trade as the price approaches the target. Bullish Reversal Target +8400c Published: Pre-Market Thursday 27 August 2026 Execute Your Trades Via The Unum Capital Trading Desk: For a decade, more than 90% of our research has been free, which means that whether you are a client or not, you can access our insights, including our trade ideas. If you have been reading our research but use another trading services provider/broker to execute the trades, why not consider moving you trading account to Unum Capital thereby routing the trades through our desk? Premium Content. Available to ACTIVE TRADING CLIENTS* (*Has executed a trade within the last 10 trading sessions) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Last week, Shoprite reached our R320 target, with a take profit recommended. This note considers the bull, base and bear case from current levels. Disclosure: The commentary below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on my own inputs/data. 🟩 Bull Case: 🟢 Buy on pullback (Secondary: 🟦 Buy (continuation)) Shoprite Holdings displays solid underlying trend strength, characterized by a strong 7-day trend, a bullish 14-day trend, and multi-week aggressive buying activity. While lower-timeframe softness introduces near-term digestion, higher-timeframe buyers remain firmly in structural control across the 2- to 8-week horizon. In this scenario, intraday pullbacks are absorbed constructively within the rising 8-EMA to 21-EMA dynamic support band. This orderly reset allows momentum to recharge, shake out weak-handed longs, and establish a firm accumulation base for the next multi-week expansion leg higher. Risks to Entering Buy/Long Positions at Current Levels: Shorter-term momentum is susceptible to rejection near prior highs. Bidding market prices aggressively rather than waiting for dynamic moving average tests risks buying directly into a tactical rollover toward dynamic support. 🟧 Base Case: ⬜ Neutral SHP enters a rotational consolidation phase across the 1- to 4-week window as an emerging upward trend balances against overhead supply. While the primary structure remains bullish, attempts to extend past prior session range highs meet active profit-taking, muting immediate breakout momentum. Price action oscillates between recent session highs and the rising 8-EMA / 21-EMA dynamic shelf, allowing moving averages to catch up and absorbing two-way flow before establishing a sustained directional drive. Risks to Base Case: The ongoing tug-of-war near range peaks could resolve prematurely—either through an aggressive volume spike that breaks cleanly through overhead resistance or via a sharp risk-off drop that slices beneath the 21-EMA buffer. 🟥 Bear Case: 🟨 Sell on rally (Alternative: 🟥 At/approaching sell/reduce) The attempt to initiate an upward trend aborts as price decisively fails to hold prior session range highs over the next 1 to 10 trading days. This failure at resistance traps late breakout buyers, validating a tactical short-sell setup back toward the dynamic 8-EMA. Over the subsequent 2 to 8 weeks, persistent selling pressure overwhelms dynamic bids at the 21-EMA, invalidating the planned buy range and triggering an expanded corrective markdown toward deeper support shelves. Risks to Entering Sell/Short Positions at Current Levels:: Shorting directly against a strong 7-day and bullish 14-day trend carries heavy squeeze risk; aggressive buyers could step in forcefully at the 8-EMA or 21-EMA, trapping counter-trend shorts. The overarching tactical posture aligns with 🟢 Buy on pullback — Pending, reflecting the model's instruction to wait for a controlled retracement into the dynamic 8-EMA to 21-EMA buy range before adding fresh long exposure. For active tactical accounts, secondary execution maps to 🟨 Sell on rally — Pending (monitoring for a failure to hold prior session range highs to execute a short setup back toward the 8- or 21-EMA). Previous Post (15 September): Target Reached at R320 + Running +11.5%. Short Term Traders Consider Taking Profits. Link to original note here > https://www.unum.capital/post/shp0308 Updated Chart Below Shoprite Holdings Our long term target for SHP is R340, discussed in June (see link > https://www.unum.capital/post/shp1906 ) Previous Post (03 August): Shoprite Holdings Re-emerging from short term downward trend. Long term, the share is trading within a multi-month consolidation which has the potential to break to the upside and where the target is around the 32000c level. The setup is temporarily invalidated on a weekly close below 27200c. Last close = 28700c READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. On 02 September, we adjusted the buy re-entry range, which has since remained unchanged. Yesterday, this level as reached (the share's lows of the day dipping into this zone only slightly) before rebounding +4% off the lows. Previous Post (02 September): Making Money With Harmony Gold Sharp Downside Follow-Through (-19%), Rewarding Opportunistic/Active Traders. Harmony Gold advanced into the sell re-entry range (traded at the upper boundary thereof) and was down by as much as 19%. Well done to clients who took the opportunity to trade. Execute Your Trades Via The Unum Capital Trading Desk: For a decade, more than 90% of our research has been free, which means that whether you are a client or not, you can access our insights, including our trade ideas. If you have been reading our research but use another trading services provider/broker to execute the trades, why not consider moving you trading account to Unum Capital thereby routing the trades through our desk? Previous Post (13 August): Trading Harmony Gold: Actionable Areas For Short Term Traders Our research is open, which means that whether you are a client or not, you can access our research, including our trade ideas. If you have been reading our reading but using another trading services provider/broker to execute your trades, why not consider moving you trading account to Unum Capital? READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Previous Post (10 September): Prosus: An Attractive Range For Building A Position Via our watchlist. This note considers the best course of action for the instrument from current levels i.e. the next best-probability actionable areas for active traders. While it continues to drift lower, driven by institutional selling pressure, Prosus has reached our buy re-entry range. Is this the exact bottom? I don't know however, this level represents a much more appealing re-accumulation range vs what we have seen in prior months. From current levels, we need to see positive candle structure start to develop, which would lay the foundation for a base and potential bullish reversal. Just under one year ago (30 September 2025), we highlighted the downside risk in the share, with a note suggesting that traders prepare for a pullback. Link to note > https://www.unum.capital/post/propre Previous Post (Friday, 22 May) JSE Tech Share: Key Range = R660 to R685 🟥Weak Trend 🟩Approaching Support (Provisional Buy Re-Entry Range) Analyst's Price Action Model: A.I-Expanded View on the above Price Action Model: READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Disclosure: The commentary below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on my own inputs/data. Analysis as of Monday, 21 September at 20h47 Currently, price action is exhibiting strong downside momentum as it approaches the lower boundary of its multi-day consolidation range near the 1.1460 level. Following a sharp rejection at overhead resistance, initiative sellers have taken firm control of the tape, driving the market lower through a sequence of decisive bearish closes with minimal lower wicks. Immediately prior to this aggressive descent, the market staged a brief rally attempting to break out above the 1.1490 resistance ceiling. However, this upward probe was swiftly absorbed by entrenched supply, printing a noticeable upper shadow before reversing violently. This failed breakout effectively trapped late buyers and acted as the primary catalyst for the current wave of heavy selling pressure. Structurally, this sequence confirms a strict adherence to range-bound mechanics, where mean reversion dominates after extremes are tested. The inability to sustain acceptance above the range high near 1.1490 forced a mechanical rotation back down through the intraday balance area, with momentum now carrying the price directly into the opposing support zone. In the near term, initiative buyer strength is notably absent, as previous attempts to establish higher lows were completely dismantled by the current descent. Sellers are currently pressing their advantage, testing the resilience of responsive buyers who have historically defended the 1.1450 to 1.1460 support floor over the past several sessions. Tactical Action: Sell on rally 🟨 6-Hour Forecast The immediate trajectory heavily favors sellers continuing to press the 1.1450 – 1.1460 support block. Given the steep angle of the current decline, any brief relief bounces are expected to encounter fierce overhead supply at previous intraday support-turned-resistance near 1.1475. Unless buyers can generate a sharp, high-volume reversal structure off the immediate lows, the path of least resistance remains downward to fully stress-test the bottom of the multi-day range. 12-Hour Forecast Looking further out, the market faces a critical structural decision at the 1.1450 floor. If sellers successfully force a definitive breakdown and sustain hourly closes below this level, it would invalidate the range and trigger fresh momentum selling, exposing the market to deeper downside continuation. Conversely, if responsive buyers step in to aggressively defend 1.1450—as they did on the 17th and 19th—expect a volatile, mean-reverting bounce back toward the 1.1475 equilibrium point, keeping the broader sideways consolidation fully intact. EUR/USD 30-Min Chart Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Disclosure: The commentary below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on my own inputs/data. Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA (CFR) — Last Close = 333,722 ZAC (Monday, September 21, 2026) Richemont (CFR) is attempting to carve out a base following heavy selling, defined by a High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold 7-day regime (23.98), a Weak 7-week regime (31.13), and a Neutral 7-month regime (46.07). Intermediate performance has been challenging (-9.47% 1-month and -8.83% 3-month), trapping the price of 333,722 ZAC beneath its 8-day (341,384), 21-day (354,801), 75-day (363,436) EMAs, 200-day SMA (344,858), 21-week EMA (358,218), and 50-week EMA (346,461). The share is hovering near its 1-month low of 330,898 ZAC, down from its 52-week high of 403,750 ZAC. A modest +0.42% daily gain and -0.05% change from open off historical support with near-oversold momentum indicate selling pressure is exhausting, creating prime conditions for a relief bounce. Technical Fair Value (TFV): 351,526 ZAC Valuation: Discount (−5.06%) Action: At/approaching buy/add 🟩 Short-Term Price Action Context (Today & Past 1 to 5 Days): Today, CFR advanced by +0.42% with a flat -0.05% tick from the open. Across the last 1 to 5 sessions, price action has shown initial signs of stabilization after testing the critical 330,898 ZAC multi-month floor, printing consecutive small candles as downside momentum stalls. Tactical Approach: Traders can consider scaling into an initial long position. See chart for actionable areas. What Can Go Right From Current Levels (Risk For Short Sellers) For Existing Sell/Short Positions: The 7-day RSI is lingering near oversold extremes (23.98) right above rock-solid horizontal support at 330,898 ZAC. A relief rally triggered by short-covering could easily push price back toward the 200-day SMA (344,858 ZAC), eroding short gains. For Potential (New) Sell/Short Positions: Shorting a luxury leader at a 5.06% discount to fair value right on major horizontal support is highly tactical and exposes traders to sudden exhaustion bounces. What Can Go Wrong From Current Levels (Risk For Buys/Longs) For Existing Buy/Long Positions: The stock is trading significantly below all major moving averages, with the 200-day SMA and 21-week EMA sloping downward steeply overhead. Rallies are likely to meet aggressive institutional supply. For Potential (New) Buy/Long Positions: Catching a falling knife in a primary downtrend requires strict risk discipline, as failure of the 330,898 ZAC support level will trigger an immediate downward acceleration. Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar' This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Analysis as of 20h24 , Monday 21 September 2026 Disclosure: The commentary below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on my own inputs/data. Currently, price action has settled into a tight consolidation range around the 4,350 level. Following a period of elevated volatility, the market is demonstrating short-term balance, with neither buyers nor sellers exerting significant directional pressure as it digests recent moves. Immediately prior to this stabilization, the market experienced a sharp decline below established support at 4,340, reaching a low near 4,330. However, this drop was quickly met with aggressive buying that drove the price right back to 4,350. This rapid recovery characterizes a false breakdown—often referred to as a bear trap—where downside momentum fails to sustain, leaving sellers caught off guard by the swift reversal. This downside volatility was actually set up by a failed attempt to push higher earlier in the session. Buyers initially attempted to reclaim the 4,370 level, but the upward probe was quickly absorbed by sellers. This created a false breakout, exhausting short-term buying interest and acting as the catalyst for the subsequent sharp decline to the lows. Looking at the broader context of the session, the market initially traded in a clear and orderly downtrend. After facing rejection at overhead resistance near 4,395, sellers maintained consistent control, guiding the price lower in a steady sequence. It was only after this methodical decline that the market transitioned into the volatile traps and subsequent consolidation we are observing now. Tactical Action: Sell on rally 🟨 6-Hour Forecast Price is expected to remain contained within the immediate 4,340 – 4,365 zone as it continues to digest the recent liquidity flush. Any near-term push into the 4,360 – 4,368 band is likely to encounter overhead supply from trapped longs and descending structural resistance. Unless buyers can force an acceptance close above 4,372, relief bounces into this area offer favorable risk-defined shorting opportunities with stops above the prior swing high. 12-Hour Forecast Following the current consolidation phase, the broader intraday distribution pattern is favored to exert downward pressure. If overhead resistance near 4,365–4,370 holds on a retest, expect sellers to re-engage, driving price back down to test the 4,340 support shelf. A secondary failure to hold 4,340 would open the path for a retest of the session low at ~4,330, where responsive buyers previously defended value. Conversely, sustained trading acceptance above 4,375 invalidates the bearish bias and signals a transition into broader range expansion toward 4,390+. Spot Gold 30-Minute Chart: Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Disclosure: The commentary below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on my own inputs/data. INSTRUMENT: XAGUSD (Spot Silver) DATE & TIME: Monday, September 21, 2026 | 7:44:48 PM STRUCTURAL RATING: ⭐⭐☆☆☆ The reward-to-risk profile is currently constrained by a lack of directional conviction and active sideways chop. For a Buy/Long position, the reward-to-risk is Moderate 🟨 because while the asset is in a long-term "Bullish Regime," it "Currently Lacks Directional Bias" and "Needs Break of Range To Trigger New Trend". Furthermore, the short-term model notes that while it is "Attempting To Advance," "Conviction Is Not High". Conversely, for a Short/Sell position, the reward-to-risk is Moderate 🟨; the medium-term model explicitly warns that "If It Doesn't Hold Prior Session Highs Then Consider Potential For Retracement To Retest The Range Breakout". TACTICAL ACTION SCALE 🟥 At/approaching sell/reduce — Immediate/Urgent: Price has hit resistance or reached extreme overbought levels. 🟧 Sell (continuation) — Active: Selling into established, current downward momentum. 🟨 Sell on rally — Pending: Waiting for a standard counter-trend bounce to execute a sell. 🟠 Sell on sharp rally — Delayed/Weakest Sell: The asset is likely already beaten down, requiring a significant, oversized bounce to justify shorting or selling. ⬜ Neutral — No clear tactical action. ⬅️ XAGUSD IS POSITIONED HERE 🔵 Buy on deeper pullback — Delayed/Weakest Buy: The asset is likely extended, requiring a significant, oversized drop to justify an entry. 🟢 Buy on pullback — Pending: Waiting for a standard counter-trend dip to execute a buy. 🟦 Buy (continuation) — Active: Buying into established, current upward momentum. 🟩 At/approaching buy/add — Immediate/Urgent: Price has hit structural support or reached extreme oversold levels. RATIONALE: Spot Silver is exhibiting a "Neutral" 7-day trend and a "Rangebound" 14-day trend. The asset is caught in a "Sideways Range" and, despite having "Recently Advanced From A Sideways Consolidation," the current advance lacks high conviction. Because the overarching structure "Currently Lacks Directional Bias" and specifically "Needs Break of Range To Trigger New Trend," the model dictates a Neutral tactical stance. Capital should remain uncommitted until the asset either confirms the breakout by cleanly clearing range resistance or fails at prior highs and executes the anticipated "Retracement To Retest The Range Breakout". SCENARIO MATRIX (BASE, BEAR & BULL CASE) Base Case (60% Probability): Low Conviction Retracement: The attempt to advance falters due to the fact that "Conviction Is Not High". The asset fails to hold prior session highs, triggering the medium-term scenario's "Potential For Retracement To Retest The Range Breakout". Price rotates back to underlying support, validating the "Neutral" and "Rangebound" lower time frame trends before structural buyers attempt to defend the macro "Bullish Regime". Bear Case (25% Probability): Failed Breakout & Range Re-entry: The asset retraces to retest the range breakout but fails to find institutional support at the lower boundary. It breaks back down into the previous consolidation zone, invalidating the recent advance and deeply compromising the integrity of the long-term "Bullish Regime". This forces long-term capital into a prolonged period of defensive chop. Bull Case (15% Probability): Conviction Surge & Trend Trigger: Buyers abruptly step in with high volume, curing the condition where "Conviction Is Not High". The asset effortlessly holds prior session highs and forces a definitive "Break of Range To Trigger New Trend". This instantly resolves the "Rangebound" 14-day trend into active bullish expansion, forcing sidelined capital to chase the newly confirmed trajectory. What Can Go Right From Current Levels (Risk For Short Sellers) For Existing Sell/Short Positions: Macro Regime Resurgence: Existing shorts are fighting an asset that operates within a long-term "Bullish Regime" and has "Recently Advanced From A Sideways Consolidation". If the asset achieves the required "Break of Range," it will instantly "Trigger New Trend," causing a severe short-covering squeeze against bearish positioning. For Potential (New) Sell/Short Positions: Shorting a Bullish Base: While there is potential for a retracement if highs fail to hold, initiating aggressive new shorts relies heavily on a "Neutral" 7-day trend suppressing a macro "Bullish Regime". If the asset catches a bid and triggers the range break, new shorts will be immediately trapped in a synchronized structural advancement. What Can Go Wrong From Current Levels (Risk For Buys/Longs) For Existing Buy/Long Positions: Low Conviction Drawdown: Investors holding long positions face immediate localized chop because the short-term advance dictates that "Conviction Is Not High". If the asset cannot hold prior session highs, existing longs must endure the anticipated "Retracement To Retest The Range Breakout," experiencing an uncomfortable drawdown in open profits. For Potential (New) Buy/Long Positions: Buying into a Range Ceiling: Entering fresh long allocations directly into a "Sideways Range" while the asset "Currently Lacks Directional Bias" is tactically inefficient. Capital deployed here risks absorbing the full negative drift of the potential retracement, directly violating the model's guidance that a "Break of Range" is needed "To Trigger New Trend".

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar' This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Disclosure: The commentary below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on my own inputs/data. Woolworths (WHL) remains trapped in an acute and protracted downtrend, characterized by a Weak 7-day momentum regime (38.46), while both the 7-week (16.00) and 7-month (19.40) timeframes register as deeply Oversold. Structural trend indicators are heavily degraded across all timeframes (-14.30% 1-month, -27.48% 3-month, and -29.87% 1-year), pinning the current price of 3,822 ZAC strictly below all key daily moving averages—the 8-day (3,841), 21-day (4,040), and 75-day (4,505) EMAs, as well as the 200-day SMA of 5,088—along with the 21-week (4,626) and 50-week (4,992) EMAs. Contextualizing its position against historical ranges, the share is trading near its 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 52-week low of 3,592 ZAC, representing a steep drawdown of over 37% from its 52-week peak of 6,146 ZAC. From a mean reversion perspective, while daily (-0.47%) and weekly (-0.98%) declines reflect persistent downward drift, the confluence of sub-20 weekly and monthly RSIs combined with an extended dislocation below the 200-day SMA confirms that downside velocity is historically exhausted, leaving the share primed for an aggressive counter-trend relief bounce toward the 21-day EMA. Technical Fair Value (TFV): 4,515 ZAC Valuation: Discount (−15.35%) Action: At/approaching buy/add 🟩 What Can Go Right From Current Levels (Risk For Short Sellers) For Existing Sell/Short Positions: The stock is coiled at structural oversold extremes across intermediate and secular horizons (7-week RSI at 16.00, 7-month RSI at 19.40). A mean-reverting snapback toward the 21-day EMA (4,040 ZAC) or 75-day EMA (4,505 ZAC) would inflict a fast ~6% to ~18% adverse move against open short positions. For Potential (New) Sell/Short Positions: Initiating fresh short exposure into a 15.35% discount to Technical Fair Value and multi-timeframe oversold readings carries highly asymmetrical risk. Downside momentum is exhausted, elevating the probability of getting caught in a sharp short-covering squeeze. What Can Go Wrong From Current Levels (Risk For Buys/Longs) For Existing Buy/Long Positions: The macro trend remains firmly down, and the 200-day SMA (5,088 ZAC) is declining steeply overhead. Without an impulsive daily reversal candle or volume expansion, the stock can remain range-bound or continue grinding lower along the descending moving average bands, further eroding open capital. For Potential (New) Buy/Long Positions: Buying an oversold condition in a broken trend is a counter-trend knife-catch. If the 52-week floor at 3,592 ZAC breaks, the absence of historical structural support beneath that level could trigger an accelerated liquidation flush before any sustainable bottom forms. Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar' This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. On 12 May, Copper reached our long term target at 6.60. This note is an update on the current reward-to-risk dynamics. Disclosure: The commentary below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on my own inputs/data. Analyst Verdict: 🟢 Buy on pullback COMEX Copper is undergoing a tight, high-level volatility compression within a powerful, secular macro expansion. After printing a fresh all-time record peak at $6.8940/lb, the contract has absorbed brief profit-taking across a well-defined upper consolidation shelf bounded between $6.3500 and $6.8000. Price action on the daily chart highlights resilient dip-buying interest off the $6.4000 baseline, lifting the contract back toward $6.6915. Because the overarching secular momentum profile remains exceptionally strong while intermediate oscillators have worked off overbought extremes, this digestion phase offers an asymmetric risk-reward window to position for an impending breakout into the $7.0000+ expansion zone. Reward-to-Risk (R:R) Dynamics | 🟢 Buy on pullback. The Immediate LONG: Favorable R:R. Accumulating near current market levels (approx. $6.6915) allows for an explicit defensive invalidation stop mapped tightly below the $6.3500 – $6.4000 horizontal range floor, while targeting a primary retest of the $6.8940 peak and an unconstrained blue-sky extension toward $7.2000. The Immediate SHORT: Extremely Poor R:R. Shorting a core global industrial commodity displaying persistent higher-low structures directly underneath all-time highs offers an exceptionally low mathematical expectancy. What Can Go Right From Current Levels (Risk For Short Sellers) For Existing Sell/Short Positions: Range-Ceiling Breakout Acceleration: Bears defending the upper boundary between $6.7500 and $6.8000 face severe squeeze risk. A decisive daily push above recent swing highs will trigger an immediate wave of stop-loss buy stops, forcing rapid position abandonment into thin overhead liquidity. Higher-Timeframe Trend Dominance: Traders carrying short exposure are battling an uncompromised monthly secular markup channel. The failure of sellers to drive price below the weekly 7-period baseline confirms that institutional demand continues to absorb supply at elevated levels, threatening to trap late-cycle counter-trend positions. For Potential (New) Sell/Short Positions: Selling into Compressed Momentum Coils: Initiating new short positions while the daily oscillator is coiling constructively above the 50 neutral mark leaves virtually zero downside cushion. The contraction in volatility indicates an imminent directional expansion, which historical alignment heavily favors breaking to the upside. Absence of Overhead Structural Resistance: Because copper trades near absolute historical records, short sellers lack established historical pivot clusters to frame favorable stop placement, skewing the mathematical loss potential heavily against new capital. What Can Go Wrong From Current Levels (Risk For Buys/Longs) For Existing Buy/Long Positions: Unrealized Gain Retracement: Allocators who entered during the earlier stages of the 2026 impulse risk sacrificing substantial open profits if the immediate $6.4000 support shelf fails. A sustained breach below this level would convert a shallow bull flag into a broader multi-week corrective retest of the psychological $6.0000 handle. Range-Floor Liquidity Hunting: Trailing stops anchored too closely to the recent $6.3445 spike low could be swept during an aggressive intraday shakeout before institutional bids definitively take control. For Potential (New) Buy/Long Positions: Overhead Range-Resistance Rejection: Executing fresh market buys near $6.7000 exposes new capital to localized range-bound churn. If buyers fail to clear the $6.8000 – $6.8940 ceiling on the first attempt, newly opened positions could suffer immediate negative drift back toward the range median. Patience & Capital Efficiency Drag: Entering ahead of a confirmed daily close above the record high carries the risk of enduring a prolonged, directionless sideways grind between $6.4000 and $6.7500, temporarily locking up deployable liquidity while the coil matures. Support Zone Mapping Immediate Tactical Support (The Consolidation Floor): $6.3500 – $6.4500. The multi-tested horizontal shelf where intraday flushes consistently encounter aggressive institutional absorption. Secondary Support Shelf (The Major Change-of-Polarity Axis): $5.8500 – $6.0500. The definitive breakout platform from early Q2 2026 that serves as an ironclad intermediate defensive line. Primary Macro Support (The Secular Baseline): $4.8500 – $5.2500. The multi-year launching pad established in late 2025 that underpins the entire structural cycle. Tactical Probability Profile Action Logic: Why two buy actions? Buy on Pullback targets value execution within the current digestion corridor, taking full advantage of localized intraday dips toward the $6.5000 pivot. Buy (Continuation) serves as the high-momentum trigger, deploying fresh capital once a definitive daily close above the $6.8000 mark confirms range resolution into blue-sky territory. 🟩 LONG: At Current Consolidation Ledge | 75% 🟢 (Buy on pullback) 🟦 LONG: On Daily Breakout Above $6.8000 | 70% 🟦 (Buy continuation) 🟩 LONG: At $6.4000 Range Base Retest | 85% 🔵 (Buy on deeper pullback) 🟨 SHORT: Tactical Fade Near $6.8800 | 25% 🟨 Technical Valuation & Variance Matrix Estimated Technical Fair Value (TFV): $6.5200. Calculated as the volume-weighted equilibrium point of the ongoing three-month trading range. Current Price Premium: The contract trades at a modest +2.63% premium relative to its TFV, indicating that price action is well-anchored within its broader consolidation structure rather than behaving in an overbought manner. Tactical Upside Potential: +3.03% to the immediate record peak at $6.8940 (and +7.60% to the primary secular Fibonacci expansion target of $7.2000). Tactical Downside Risk: -3.61% to the tactical support band floor ($6.4500) and -5.18% to the hard invalidation line below the swing low ($6.3445). Asymmetry Ratio (R:R Metrics): At current market levels, a strategic trade targeting $7.2000 while risking against a confirmed daily closing breakdown below $6.4500 yields a solid 2.11:1 Upside-to-Downside ratio. What Can Change Range Invalidation Breakdown: A sustained daily close below $6.3400 would break the intermediate market structure, opening an air pocket for a deeper corrective descent toward the $6.0000 psychological shelf. 🟥 Impulsive Momentum Expansion: A high-volume daily close above $6.8000 will signal the official ignition of the next markup leg, accelerating price toward the $7.2000 projection level. 🟦 Prolonged Coil Compression: Failure to breach either boundary over the next two weeks will confine price to an extended lateral churn between $6.4500 and $6.7500. ⬜ Structural Breakdown 1-Day Structure (High-Level Basing): As demonstrated in file HG1!_2026-09-20_13-23-51.png, the contract is tracing out a classic bullish pennant/box pattern. Recent candles demonstrate a distinct curling up from the $6.4000 low, with green accumulation bars steadily reclaiming the upper half of the range. Weekly Structure (Bull Flag Extension): As demonstrated in file HG1!_2026-09-20_13-23-45.png, the weekly chart reveals an impeccably ordered ascending trend staircase. The multi-week pause beneath $6.8000 has served to consolidate the vigorous markup originating from the $4.4000 macro base. Monthly Structure (Secular Blue-Sky Breakout): As demonstrated in file HG1!_2026-09-20_13-23-37.png, the macro timeframe exhibits a historic breakout from a multi-decade cyclical formation, confirming that copper has entered an unconstrained secular price discovery phase. Velocity & Slope Analysis 1-Day Slope (Curling Positive): Approx. +20 to +25 Degrees. The daily trend vector is rotating upward out of its localized base, signaling that immediate buying pressure is re-engaging. 10-Day & 20-Day Slope (Neutral Compression): Approx. 0 to +5 Degrees. Intermediate-term moving average vectors remain flat to slightly positive, confirming an equilibrium coil awaiting trend release. Secular Slope (Monthly): Approx. +45 Degrees. The multi-year trajectory maintains an exceptionally steep and durable positive angle, providing an overwhelming macro tailwind. Momentum Profile Integration The Faster Tiers: Following the successful bounce off the lower channel, both the Ultra Short Term and Short Term momentum tiers have reset cleanly from previous overbought conditions and are actively expanding upward within constructive neutral-to-strong territory. The Slower Tiers: The Structural Trend (Weekly) and Secular Cycle (Monthly) momentum profiles continue to register as Strong to High Bullish Momentum. Because higher-timeframe momentum engines remain firmly locked in an expansion regime without flashing macro divergence, the broader weight of the technical evidence heavily favors an upside breakout. Previous Post (12 May): Copper Futures: Long Term Target Reached at $6.60 Previous Post (09 July 2025) (Link > https://www.unum.capital/post/hgtari ) Tariffs On Copper Ignites Further Rally; Key Drivers Support Move To Long Term Target of 6.60 Previous Post (01 July): Copper Futures: Bull Flag Sees Upside Follow-Through; Trades At Multi-Month High of $5.18. The bull flag discussed on 26 May has see strong upside follow-through. Traded above 5.00 earlier in this session. Previous Post (21 May): Copper Futures: Bull Flag Emerging? A break above 4.73 targets 5.15. Previous Post (20 March): Copper: Repeating It's Mid 2000s Cycle? We have a long history discussing Copper, since the lows during Covid at $2.31. This is an update. What we saw then... (the potential for a post 2001 to 2003 cycle run-up). How it's developed thus far... Previous Posts Previous Post: Copper - Your Questions Answered (14 January 2025) Analyst's Price Action Model Here's a summary of the price action model for Copper Futures: Q: What is the overall trend of Copper Futures? A: The overall trend is Bullish. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend is Overbought. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend is Very Bullish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, there is a potential opportunity for a short-term buy/long position. The model suggests looking for a pullback to the 8 or 21 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) as a potential entry point for the next move higher. Q: What is the outlook for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: For the medium term, the advice is to expect a steady upward trend. It's recommended to apply daily/weekly moving averages where applicable. Q: What is the outlook for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: In the long term, the advice is to anticipate a continuation of the bullish regime. If Copper Futures pull back, the model suggests using the prior session close or the 8-EMA as an accumulation zone. It's recommended to apply weekly moving averages and time frames (not daily). In summary: The price action model for Copper Futures indicates a bullish overall trend with a short-term overbought condition. Traders are advised to look for potential pullbacks to enter long positions. The medium-term outlook is for a steady upward trend, while the long-term expectation is for a continuation of the bullish regime. Copper Futures Daily Chart Previous Post: This Is How I'm Looking At Copper + Updated Target Thursday, 03 October 2024 Time Published: 19h26 Great comeback on the back of the Chinese stimulus announcement, with the continued development of a +3 year base. Measured move target (medium/long term) = $6.60 Previous Post: Tuesday, 24 September at 11H16 The People's Bank of China (PBoC) introduced several measures to boost the economy amid concerns that the official growth target of around 5% might be out of reach due to recent weak data. Governor Pan Gongsheng said in a media briefing today that the central bank will cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50bps, which will inject CNY 1 trillion into the financial system, with the possibility of another reduction of 0.25 to 0.5 ppts later this year. In addition, the PBoC will lower the seven-day reverse repo rate by 20bps to 1.5%, aiming to reduce short-term borrowing costs for banks. This move is accompanied by a 30bps reduction in borrowing costs of the medium-term lending facility. Mortgage rates will also be trimmed, with an expected average drop of 50bps, and the minimum down payment for second homes will be cut to 15% from 25%. Pan did not specify when the moves will take effect. Tuesday's action came after the US Fed started its monetary easing cycle with a large rate cut - Source: TradingEconomics Previous Post (26 August 2024) US Trading Session (Mon, 26-Aug-2024), Time: 19h00 (S/Africa) Was $3.95 vs a multi-week high of $4.23 today. Previous Post (07 August 2024) Real-Time: 14h36 Trading at it's previous breakout level. Previous Post: UPDATE: Copper has retraced from it's short and medium term overbought levels, having traded above $5.00. This follows an impressive run, one that we discussed on 16 November 2023. The automated model gave us a reading on 15 May, warning of an unappealing reward-to-risk on the upside i.e. expect a pullback. At current levels, the commodity trades in a high bearish momentum regime, approaching short term oversold levels. In addition, it is trading at or around the rising 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), a level at which bulls could re-emerge. The short term trend remains down, however active traders would want to monitor for early signs of price stabilization which could signal the start of a base and potentially a bullish reversal. Downside risk, as highlighted on 15 May: Upside Opportunity on 16 November 2023: I've been a copper bull since May 2020. This was the setup, as I highlighted and discussed at the time. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital