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Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Tuesday 24 February (post-market), for Wednesday, 25 February. Domestic Economic Indicators (SA Inc) 🏦 The SARB Easing Cycle is Underway:  Banks moving into the Weakening  quadrant while Consumer sectors move into Improving  strongly signals an active interest rate cutting cycle. This compresses banking net interest margins (NIMs) but provides vital relief to consumers. 🛍️ South African Consumer Revival:  Consumer Discretionary and Staples surging with strong short-term momentum highlights a recovery in household disposable income, driven by lower inflation and easing borrowing costs. ⚡ Fading Local Energy Crisis Premium:  Coal Miners dropping to the Neutral  quadrant confirms that the acute premium on thermal coal—previously driven by extreme SA loadshedding and global energy fears—has completely dissipated. 🏭 Stabilizing Local Supply Chains:  Chemicals entering the Leading  quadrant acts as a proxy for stabilized local manufacturing, agriculture, and supply chains, indicating that crippling local logistical bottlenecks (like port and rail issues) are easing. 🏥 Defensive Domestic Anchors Remain Relevant:  Hospitals in the Leading  quadrant suggest that while investors are getting more optimistic about "SA Inc," they are doing so cautiously by choosing defensive, non-cyclical local cash flows. 🌾 Lower Local Input Inflation:  Consumer Staples crossing into the Improving  quadrant reveals that extreme input cost pressures (fuel, agricultural commodities) for retailers have subsided, allowing for margin expansion. 📶 Peak Yield Defensive Rotation:  Telecoms slipping into the Weakening  quadrant shows that local investors are abandoning traditional high-dividend defensive plays as they take on more risk in a recovering economic cycle. 💳 Maturing Credit Expansion:  Banks losing short-term momentum often signals that the credit expansion cycle has peaked locally; non-performing loans (NPLs) might be temporarily capping banking outperformance before rate cuts fully repair balance sheets. ☂️ Yield Curve Normalization:  Insurers remaining Neutral  while Banks weaken suggests the yield curve is steepening or normalizing, which is less immediately punishing to long-term investment floats than to short-term bank lending margins. 🇿🇦 The "SA Inc" Rebound:  With domestic retail improving and local industrials leading, the market is pricing in structural improvements in the domestic South African economy, signaling fading pessimism. Global Macro & Commodity Cycles ⛏️ Global Commodity Resurgence:  Diversified Miners anchored in the Leading  quadrant indicate robust global industrial demand and a definite upswing in the global manufacturing PMI cycle. 🇨🇳 Bifurcated China Macro Narrative:  The strength in Diversified Miners (iron ore/base metals) combined with extreme weakness in Luxury Goods ( Lagging ) suggests China is heavily stimulating its industrial/infrastructure engine, while its domestic consumer spending remains deeply depressed. 🥇 Sticky Global Geopolitical & Inflation Risks:  Gold Miners retaining "High Bullish" momentum in the Leading  quadrant shows investors are maintaining strong macro hedges against global inflation stickiness, currency devaluation, or geopolitical fragmentation. 🔄 Rotation from Global Growth to Value:  Technology (heavily weighted by Naspers/Prosus on the JSE) deeply lodged in the Lagging  quadrant signifies a broad global macro rotation away from high-duration growth equities into cyclical, cash-generative value stocks. 🌿 Green Energy Transition Demand:  Platinum’s strong placement in the Leading  quadrant underscores continued macro tailwinds from the global green energy transition, the hydrogen economy, and stabilized automotive supply chains. 💱 Potential ZAR Weakness / Rand-Hedge Appeal:  A leading resource and chemical sector often acts as a rand-hedge. Their strong performance indicates either a depreciating ZAR boosting local earnings or highly favorable global export pricing. 📦 Softness in Global E-commerce Logistics:  Paper and Pulp stuck in the Lagging  quadrant indicates softness in global fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and global shipping/packaging volumes, hinting at a global goods recession despite industrial strength. 🤖 Regulatory and Monetization Headwinds in Tech:  The "High Bearish" momentum in Technology points to macroeconomic headwinds specific to the Chinese tech sector (regulatory tightening) or global AI monetization fatigue affecting valuations. 🛡️ Risk-On Sentiment with an Insurance Policy:  The simultaneous bid for aggressive cyclical recovery (Miners, Consumer Discretionary) and extreme safety (Gold) paints a macro picture of "guarded optimism"—the market expects growth but is actively protecting against systemic shocks. 🌅 Classic Early-Cycle Recovery Blueprint:  The exact pairing of leading basic materials (Miners/Chem) and vigorously improving consumer sectors, alongside lagging tech and weakening financials, is the textbook macro signature of an economy transitioning from a late-stage slowdown into a fresh, early-cycle economic expansion. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Tuesday 24 February (post-market), for Wednesday, 25 February. 31 December 2025 24 February 2026 This multi-time frame analysis tracks shifting momentum profiles across 14 equally-weighted JSE sectors relative to the Top 40 index over an eight-week trading period. 🔄 Overall, the JSE breadth has experienced a massive expansion in volatility; the total number of "Neutral" readings across all timeframes has plummeted from approximately 45% of the board in December down to just 33% today. 📈 Bullish momentum has essentially doubled across the broader market, with the total count of "Strong" regime classifications jumping from just 7 instances at the end of 2025 to 14 instances by late February. 📉 Conversely, deep oversold extremes are expanding, highlighting a bifurcated market where capital is rapidly fleeing laggards to chase emerging cyclical strength. 💻 The Technology sector has seen a distinct deterioration since the end of 2025. What was previously a "Weak" long-term trend has now collapsed entirely into an "Oversold" state, with short-term momentum reaching highly bearish extremes. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: High Risk / High Reward (Contrarian mean-reversion setup)] 📉 Statistically, Technology is currently the worst-performing relative sector on the board, being the only group to register an "Oversold" medium-term regime alongside its deeply oversold long-term baseline. ⛏️ General Miners have staged a massive bullish turnaround. Upgrading from a weak long-term stance in December, they now boast a "Strong" long-term position and highly bullish medium-term momentum. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Moderate (Strong momentum, but elevated medium-term pullback risk)] 🚀 The sheer velocity of the Miners' move is statistically significant, representing a rare "triple-upgrade" across long, medium, and short-term profiles in just 39 trading days. 🏦 Banks have also enjoyed a very solid upgrade in their underlying trends. Their previously neutral long and medium-term regimes have successfully transitioned into a definitively "Strong" status over the last eight weeks. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Good (Strong trend with favorable short-term consolidation for entry)] 📊 This signifies a major institutional accumulation phase for Banks, shifting 66% of their trend metrics from stagnant to actively bullish without overextending their short-term oscillator profiles. 🛡️ Insurers, however, have not participated in this broader financial sector uplift. Their positioning remains completely static, stuck in a weak long-term trend with neutral medium and short-term indicators. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Poor (Lacking directional momentum and baseline strength)] 📉 The statistical divergence between Banks and Insurers is glaring; while Banks captured strong relative flows, Insurers experienced exactly zero momentum shifts across all three measured time horizons. 🥇 Gold Miners have experienced an acceleration in their upward trajectory. Their long-term momentum, previously approaching overbought levels, has now officially triggered an "Overbought" regime, while short-term strength has strongly returned. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Low (Overbought extremes present high pullback risk for new entries)] ⚠️ Statistically, Gold Miners are currently printing the most extended upper-bound readings on the board, holding the singular "Overbought" long-term rating across all 14 tracked sectors. 💎 Platinum Miners stand out as the most consistent performers on the board. They have maintained a completely unbroken "Strong" regime across all three timeframes since the end of last year. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Excellent (Full bullish alignment across all measured time frames)] 🏆 With a 100% hold rate on their "Strong" classifications from December to February, Platinum Miners boast the lowest momentum volatility and highest relative trend stability of the entire group. 🛒 Consumer Staples are showing the first signs of a potential breakout. While their long and medium-term trends remain stubbornly neutral, their short-term momentum has upgraded from neutral to "Strong." [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Moderate (Short-term breakout requires longer-term confirmation)] 📈 This represents a 33% improvement in the Staples' overall trend profile, suggesting early defensive rotations are beginning to gain traction on shorter time horizons. 🛍️ Consumer Discretionary presents a highly mixed and volatile picture. The long-term trend remains heavily bearish, but a sudden surge of buying has pushed the short-term regime into highly bullish territory. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: High Risk (Conflicting extremes between long and short-term trends)] ⚡ This sector is displaying the widest statistical momentum spread in the market, pinning the needle at "High Bearish" on the long-term while simultaneously hitting "High Bullish" in the short-term. 🏥 Hospitals have mounted an impressive recovery over the past two months. While still fighting a weak long-term trend, both their medium and short-term regimes have flipped from neutral to "Strong." [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Moderate to Good (Developing counter-trend recovery)] 📈 Hospitals represent one of the most statistically robust short-term reversals, converting 66% of their trend profile from neutral stagnation into active relative outperformance. ⬛ Coal Miners remain entirely unchanged and uninspiring. They continue to languish with a weak long-term outlook and entirely neutral medium and short-term indicators, showing no real momentum either way. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Poor (Stagnant momentum and weak underlying trend)] 📉 Along with Insurers, Coal Miners are the only other sector to register a 0% change across all momentum indicators between the December and February closing readings. 📡 Telecoms have seen a slight smoothing of their momentum curves. Their short-term strength from December has cooled to neutral, but this energy seems to have transferred into a newly "Strong" medium-term trend. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Good (Constructive medium-term strength currently consolidating)] 📊 This sector displays classic rotational consolidation, trading a 100% drop in short-term strength for a 100% upgrade in medium-term trend stability. 📄 The Paper & Pulp sector continues to struggle under persistent selling pressure. The long-term picture remains deeply oversold, and short-term momentum has actively deteriorated from neutral to "Weak." [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Poor (Persistent downward momentum across time frames)] 📉 Statistically, Paper & Pulp is locked in a negative feedback loop, with 100% of its timeframes now registering in the bottom tier of momentum (Oversold/Weak/Weak). 🧪 Chemicals offer perhaps the most dramatic recovery story of the new year. Shaking off a highly bearish long-term and weak medium-term setup in December, they are now printing "Strong" medium and short-term regimes. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Good (Emerging bullish alignment on shorter time frames)] 🚀 This structural turnaround is the most statistically aggressive on the board, shaking off a "High Bearish" long-term anchor to capture dual-strong readings in the faster timeframes. 👜 Luxury Goods have unfortunately lost further ground since the close of 2025. Their medium-term indicator has slipped from neutral to "Weak," aligning with their ongoing long-term weakness. [Multi-Time Frame (Long) Reward-to-Risk: Poor (Entrenched weakness with no signs of reversal)] 📉 This sector is showing a 33% degradation in its momentum profile, steadily leaking relative strength as it slides deeper into multi-timeframe weakness. 📊 Looking at the broader transition matrix, 35% of the tracked timeframes experienced a positive upgrade between December and February, indicating an overarching bullish tilt in JSE sector internals. 📉 Conversely, only 14% of the tracked timeframes suffered a momentum downgrade, confirming that buying pressure is currently outpacing selling pressure on a relative basis. ⚡ Extreme readings (High Bullish/Overbought or High Bearish/Oversold) have increased from 11% of all signals in December to 19% in February, pointing to rising institutional conviction. ⚖️ The data reveals a strong preference for resources and heavy industry over the last two months, while rate-sensitive sectors like Tech and Luxury are absorbing the brunt of the capital flight. 🔄 Mid-term timeframes showed the highest degree of regime volatility, acting as the primary transition zone where early year rotations were first confirmed. 🏁 In conclusion, the JSE sector landscape has aggressively transitioned from a state of broad neutrality in late 2025 into a highly polarized, high-velocity rotational market in 2026. 📈 Investors are clearly favoring established cyclical strength and aggressive counter-trend recoveries, completely abandoning sectors that fail to maintain upward relative momentum. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za 🛡️ The Base Case (50% Probability) - "Consolidates gains": The highest probability outcome is that the index digests this massive run. After a vertical thrust, markets typically need to build a base to allow fast-moving indicators to cool off. This scenario sees price churning sideways around current levels, respecting the 114,000 support level without immediately breaking significantly higher. 🚀 The Bull Case (30% Probability) - "Momentum squeeze": If the market completely ignores the overextended indicators and breaks firmly above 117,500, it triggers a momentum squeeze. This is the "irrational exuberance" phase where forced buying pushes the index toward the 122,000 target. While possible, chasing this breakout carries a poor reward-to-risk ratio. 💥 The Bear Case (20% Probability) - "Overbought washout": If the exhaustion becomes too heavy and price slips below 114,000, it confirms a tactical top. This triggers a necessary mean-reversion washout, flushing out weak hands and targeting the 108,000 zone to structurally reset the chart. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The screeners reveal a market characterized by intense, yield-hungry defensiveness. Professional capital is completely ignoring traditional high-beta Tech and Growth, aggressively rotating into "safe haven" sectors, yield-bearing assets, and highly specific international pockets. While the momentum indicators are flashing overbought, the assets themselves are incredibly conservative: traders are chasing price strength in Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Healthcare. The dominant trade is a massive "risk-off" flight to safety, signaling a deep apprehension about broad market valuations or economic acceleration, offset by a desperate hunt for yield as rate expectations potentially shift. Size Factors 📏 Small Cap 🐜:  Muted. Broad small-cap indices are glaringly absent from these momentum screens. Capital is not trickling down the risk curve; it is congregating at the top. Mid Cap ⚖️:  Selective. Mid Caps only appear in highly specific, factor-screened formats (like QVMM for Midcap Multi-factor). The broad "forgotten middle" trade is not the primary driver here. Large Cap 🐳:  Dominant but Defensive. Heavy concentration is evident in massive, highly liquid sector SPDRs and Vanguard funds (XLV, XLP, XLU). The "Magnificent Seven" trade is dead in these flows; Large Cap money is strictly playing defense. Style Factors 🎨 Value 🏷️:  Leading. Value is heavily favored, but primarily through the lens of traditional, hard-asset, or regulated sectors like Real Estate (VNQ, XLRE) and Utilities (XLU, VPU). Quality 💎:  Implicit Support. Professional flows are hiding in established giants within Healthcare (IXJ, IBB) and Consumer Staples (VDC, IYK). The market is heavily rewarding stable, predictable cash flows. Growth 🚀:  Distressed / Rebound. Pure tech or broad growth is entirely absent. The only "Growth" catching a bid is Biotech and Genomics (IBB, XBI, ARKG), appearing specifically in the "Strong Off Lows" screener—indicating a mean-reversion or bottom-fishing trade rather than structural momentum. Momentum 🌊:  The Defensive Paradox. These are momentum and overbought screeners, but they are capturing historically low-beta assets. The market is experiencing extreme technical momentum in "boring" sectors. Momentum is currently a risk-off trade. Risk & Yield Factors ⚠️ Low Volatility 🛡️:  High Conviction. SPLV (US Low Vol) and IDLV (Intl Low Vol) are heavily featured across multiple timeframes. Capital is explicitly paying a premium for downside protection. High Yield / Dividend 💰:  Screaming Signal. This is a massive driver of current flows. REITs (REZ, DFGR, USRT), Utilities, and Energy Income (EINC) are everywhere. Total return via high dividend distribution is a top priority. Profitability 📊:  Anchored. By ignoring speculative growth and focusing on Staples and Healthcare, the market is firmly demanding current, proven profitability over future promises. Liquidity 💧:  Extremely High. Institutional money is crowding into massive flagship ETFs (iShares, SPDR, Vanguard). Nobody is venturing into obscure or illiquid vehicles; they want to ensure they can exit the trade quickly. Carry 🎒:  Aggressive. The sheer volume of Real Estate and MLP/Energy Infrastructure (MLPX) funds indicates institutions are heavily hunting for carry, likely positioning for a peaking or falling interest rate environment. Geography Factors 🌍 US 🇺🇸:  The Core Anchor. The US remains the dominant destination for defensive safety (US Staples, US Healthcare, US Low Volatility). ex-US / Developed Markets 🌍:  Selective Safety. Capital flowing outside the US is still seeking safety, evident in International Low Volatility (IDLV) and specific developed outliers like Norway (NORW). Emerging Markets / Frontier Markets 🐅:  Tactical Thrusts. Broad EM indices are absent, but highly targeted momentum thrusts are occurring in specific Southeast Asian markets, notably Thailand (THD) and the Philippines (EPHE). These are idiosyncratic, tactical trades rather than broad emerging market risk-on behavior. Thematic & Sector Factors 🏗️ Defensive 🏰:  Extreme. This is the defining characteristic of the entire data set. Utilities, Staples, Healthcare, and Gold Miners (GDX, SGDM) completely monopolize the capital flows. Cyclical 🔄:  Subdued / Absent. Traditional economic cyclicals (Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Financials) are missing. The only "cyclical" elements are Energy Infrastructure and Gold, which are currently being traded as inflation hedges or yield vehicles rather than pure economic growth plays. ESG 🌿:  Niche. Low Carbon (SMOG) and Sustainable goals (SDG) appear briefly, but they look like collateral beneficiaries of broader flows rather than the primary driver of capital allocation. Multi-Factor 🧩:  Present but Secondary. Funds like QVMM appear, but single-sector (Healthcare) or single-factor (Low Volatility) ETFs are taking the vast majority of the volume. Investment (Capex) 🏭:  Structural. Despite the defensive posture, specific long-term capex themes are catching bids, notably Electrification/Battery Tech (LIT, ZAP) and Energy Infrastructure (MLPX), indicating a willingness to look past short-term economic fears for generational infrastructure shifts. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Improving candle structure. Reclaiming MONTHLY swing low. NHI halt. Potential for gap fill 1350c. Major resistance at 1455c. Current level 1196c. Stop/temporary failure is a close below 1125c. Multi-month falling wedge structure. Monthly Chart Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.   The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share is higher by over 48% from our buy idea in June (triggered by the price action model). (Was below R420, now R614). Most recently on 02 December, we re-iterated the share as a recovery idea (was R470 now R614) Trading BHP Group: Strong Trend; Use Rally To Reduce Medium Term Positions (Currently Running +45%) Date & Time Published: Thursday, 05 February (Pre-Market) Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.   The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Price path followed with strong upside follow-through R400 to R439 Previous Post (19 November): Bid Corp: Early Buy Trigger (Lower Time Frame); Lower Levels Expected Before Potential Rebound Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Global Idea: ING Groep Previous Post (08 March 2025): Global Ideas: ING Groep Re-emerging strength following a multi-month base. (Euronext Amsterdam) Previous Post: European Financials: Attractive Valuations + Improving Technical Structure In September of last year (2024), I discussed European equities being inexpensive near it's all-time highs. This week, the Euro Stoxx 600 printed new all-time highs. European Financials (EUFN ETF) form part of this group and are trading at the same level (in USD term) as they did in 2010 and 2011. Look at that multi-year base. In addition, the sector trades at valuations that would require very little to go right to see a re-rating. In other words, the bar is low. Previous Post: European Equities: Inexpensive Near All-Time Highs Thursday, 26 September 2024 at 21h12 ETF: iShares Europe Ticker: IEV Trading at 52-week highs, but remains relatively inexpensive Current Price = $58.78 Medium term target = $68 The setup is invalidated below 54.00

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.   The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 22-February for Monday Monday 23 February. Previous Post (19 February) Short Term Traders Take Profit: Silver Running 7% Over Two Days Previous Post (17 February):🎥Video: Trading Silver (Short Term) Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.   The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital