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Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za After two failed attempts, the sector (on a relative basis vs the JSE All Share Index) is attempting to position itself above it's 200-day SMA. This represents an attempt to outperform the broader market. Note that the ratio trades well below it's 200-week which would serve as a long term target. Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.   The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 22 February for Monday 23 February. Welcome done to clients who have participated. Level at time of writing: 10,713. Previous Post (19 January 2025): FTSE 100 Index Re-Emerging Strength + Exposure To Cyclical, Undervalued Sectors Around 14 months ago (20 November 2023), I highlighted an idea to buy the EWU ETF which provides investors with exposure to UK equities. The region remains relative undervalued with exposure similar to that of South African (Banks, Miners etc.) Reviewing the FTSE 100 Index, the last few sessions have shown prices starting to re-emerge from a momentum perspective. More specifically, the index has developed a multi-month base formation which suggests that there is potential for higher prices over the medium term. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 22 February for Monday 23 February. Momentum Data based on the WEEKLY time frame. This data is subject to change as the news flow and price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 22 February for Monday 23 February. Near Term Spike Into Medium Term Overbought Conditions Could Create Short/Sell Opportunity Analyst's Price Action Model ABG Daily Chart Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.   The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 22-Feb for Monday 23-Feb Previous Post (06 January 2026): JSE Industrial Share: Recovering & Running +10% (Hold) Running +10% from our (video) commentary on 19 October in which we considered the relative distance and medium term value. Previous Post (19 October): Bidvest: Relative Distance vs JSE Top 40 Index (Medium Term Value) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 22 February for Monday 23 February. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 22 February for Monday 23 February. Momentum Data based on the WEEKLY time frame. This data is subject to change as the news flow and price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 22 February for Monday 23 February. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 22 February for Monday 23 February. Momentum Data based on the WEEKLY time frame. This data is subject to change as the news flow and price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 22 February for Monday 23 February. Momentum Data based on the WEEKLY time frame. This data is subject to change as the news flow and price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 22 February for Monday 23 February. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 22 February for Monday 23 February. Analyzing the market breadth exclusively through the lens of the Mid Term Structural Trend reveals a broader reward-to-risk profile that is becoming increasingly defensive for new long exposures. With well over half the market densely concentrated across the Strong, High Bullish Momentum, and Overbought tiers, the bulk of the macro heavy lifting is already in the rearview mirror. The significant clustering within the extreme Overbought tier specifically signals a mathematically poor reward-to-risk for chasing late-stage breakouts, as these charts are stretched and vulnerable to institutional profit-taking. While the fat middle of the market residing in the Strong tier still offers an acceptable reward-to-risk for continuation trades, these require precise entries on micro-pullbacks rather than buying into vertical thrusts. Conversely, the extreme scarcity of assets in the High Bearish Momentum and Oversold zones—representing a tiny fraction of the tracked universe—indicates that systemic fear is non-existent and true deep-value capitulation setups are highly isolated anomalies rather than broad sector opportunities. Ultimately, the aggregate structural reward-to-risk heavily dictates a shift toward capital preservation: the tactical edge now lies in trimming into strength, tightening trailing stops on extended leaders, and exercising extreme patience before deploying fresh capital into the few remaining macro laggards. With the broader market structurally overheated and heavily skewed toward the Overbought and Strong tiers, true "value" is incredibly scarce. Capital has fled specific sectors, creating highly concentrated pockets of extreme fear and statistical dislocation. Based on the multi-timeframe momentum profile and the Lagging/Improving RRG quadrants, the immediate pockets of deep value are isolated in the following four areas: 1. The Tech & Platform Proxies (Maximum Capitulation) This is the most severe pocket of value on the JSE right now. These shares are pinned strictly in the Oversold tier on the Mid Term and Base Term indicators, representing total capitulation and a complete decoupling from the broader bull run. The Tickers: NPN (Naspers), PRX (Prosus), BYI (Bytes Technology), KRO (Karooooo). The Value Thesis: Sentiment on China-linked tech and UK/SaaS growth has completely washed out. These counters are trading at their maximum historical standard deviations below the mean. Tactical Action: These are "At or approaching buy/add" setups. They offer highly asymmetric reward-to-risk for mean-reversion bounces, as seller exhaustion is mathematically peaking. 2. Distressed Consumer Retail (The Surrender Point) The consumer discretionary and grocery sectors have been punished by sustained inflation and debt burdens. However, the selling pressure has pushed several household names into the High Bearish Momentum and Oversold tiers, creating hard statistical floors. The Tickers: PIK (Pick n Pay), SPP (Spar), MRP (Mr Price). The Value Thesis: The bad news (rights issues, SAP implementations, consumer strain) is entirely priced in. These stocks are now trading at deep-value distress levels where turnaround strategies (e.g., PIK and SPP) begin to attract smart money looking for early cycle base-building. Tactical Action: Accumulate on heavy volume climaxes (capitulation days where the price drops intraday but closes green). 3. Paper & Packaging (Cyclical Floors) This sub-sector is technically classified as "Broken" and resides deep in the Lagging phase, but it represents a classic cyclical value pocket. The Tickers: MNP (Mondi), SAP (Sappi). The Value Thesis: Global destocking and poor pricing cycles have hammered these charts into the Weak and Neutral macro tiers. However, they are approaching major multi-year structural support zones. MNP, specifically, is registering a massive bullish divergence (price making new lows while Ultra Short Term momentum curls higher). Tactical Action: Look for a "Pin Bar" reversal or a failure to break lower support to confirm the cyclical bottom is in. 4. The "Stealth" Turnarounds (Early Improving Phase) These are not falling knives; these are stocks that were in the Lagging quadrant but have recently caught a violent bid on the Ultra Short Term indicator, pulling them into the RRG Improving quadrant. They represent value because the Base Term trend is still cheap, but institutional accumulation has already begun. The Tickers: BAT (Brait), BID (Bidcorp), OUT (OUTsurance), AEL (Altron). The Value Thesis: The Base Term trend remains structurally weak (keeping the valuation cheap), but the Ultra Short Term momentum has surged into the Strong or High Bullish tiers. This divergence signals that the fundamentals are shifting (e.g., debt refinancing for BAT, offshore boom for BID). Tactical Action: These provide the safest "value" entries, as the momentum has already started to turn the corner. Buy continuations on minor micro-pullbacks. Summary: If you are hunting for value right now, you must look where the market is bleeding. The highest conviction deep-value play resides in the NPN / PRX complex due to the sheer size of the valuation disconnect, followed closely by the structural turnaround plays in BID and BAT where the risk is lower because the momentum has already begun to shift positive. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital