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- Trading Sasol: Actionable Areas
This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. On 08 September. we flagged a take profit following a +29% gain vs the previous buy re-entry range > https://www.unum.capital/post/sol0809 This note considers the next-best probability actionable areas from current levels. Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next-best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best probability buy re-entry range and a next-best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar' This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Glencore Plc: Actionable Areas
This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Glencore Plc - The 13436c to 13905c has, since March of this year been a level into which we thought the share could see resistance. Subsequently the share traded into that range (early June) and again in early September. On a fundamental basis, negative news has emerge regarding Asia-based group Radiant World, with the group facing a $2bn claim in Singapore. This has lead to pressure in the group's share price with the share below it's 8, 21 and 75-EMA while the 200-day SMA is just below. For traders that missed the short/sell, the share has shifted to a SELL ON RALLY (into 12743c/13154c) while the 10300c to 10800c range is a short term demand zone. Previous Post 18 June: Take Profit on Glencore Plc. 8% Gain vs Sell Re-Entry Range We've had to be patient with Glencore as the price took a few weeks to reach our sell- re-entry range. Once there, we saw an immediate rejection and bearish reversal for a 8% move on the downside. If you are a short term trader, consider taking (partial) profit on this move. Previous Post (30 March)💡Further Comment: Glencore Plc - A Poor Buy/Long Reward-To Risk. Higher Levels Expected Before Bearish Reversal I'm adding the Price Action Model - take with a 15-minute delayed price. Previous Post: How To Trade Glencore Plc (GLN) Published Sunday 29 March for Monday, 30 March. An existing buy/long idea from 6547c (see chart reference), the share reached our long term target of 9400c (the 200-week SMA). Since then, the upward momentum has continued with the share outperforming it's JSE-listed peers and trading above R120. On the monthly time frame, the share is trading in an 'OVERBOUGHT' range. On the weekly, a 'HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT' regime is in place while on the daily time frame, a 'STRONG' regime is in place. An upside extension from current levels is likely to place the share in an OVERBOUGHT range on the weekly and monthly time frames and 'APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT on the daily time frame. What's the risk of buying now? Overbought conditions could start to come into play. What's the risk of sell now? Strong upward momentum can remain in place longer than anticipated. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Gold Fields: Actionable Areas
This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar' This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- 🟥🟩🟧 JSE Sector Momentum Dashboard
This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Analysis Prepared: Pre-Market Friday, 18/09. Published Sunday, 20/09, For The Week Commencing 21/09. The JSE sector momentum matrix displays an assertive resource-led rotation accompanied by strong intermediate health in specialized defensive lines. Platinum Miners command absolute elite status on the board, achieving a rare, multi-horizon synchronized Strong (#3) configuration across Long, Medium, and Short-Term scales. Diversified Miners and Gold Miners provide powerful structural leadership, both maintaining elite Strong (#3) long-term foundations. Conversely, deep structural decay remains intensely concentrated in Technology, which is locked in a severe multi-horizon markdown anchored by a long-term High Bearish Momentum (#6) / Approaching Oversold classification. Meanwhile, localized momentum pockets have emerged in Consumer Staples, Hospitals, Paper & Pulp, and Chemicals, all printing aggressive short-term Strong (#3) outperformance spreads. Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar' This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- JSE Top 40 Index
This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Published For The Week Commencing Monday, 21 September 2026. JSE Top 40 Index: On Tuesday, the index traded into our provisional buy re-entry range, which was followed by a +1000 point rebound. Over the following three sessions, the index consolidated in a tight range, with sellers controlling the ~107,000 level, which is in line with the declining 8-day exponential moving average (EMA). This level (the 8-day EMA) has acted as an level of resistance which saw the index selling off sharply on an intraday basis on Friday. which caused the index to close at a 6-week low. Price Action Model: 💡 CORE THESIS: The 7-Day trend is Weak and the 14-Day trend is Bearish. Price action is very weak across both the short- and medium-term horizons, requiring confirmed stabilization on lower timeframes before any sustained recovery can unfold. While the broader long-term framework remains in a steady upward trend, persistent lower-timeframe deterioration keeps the near-term technical advantage tilted toward sellers. CLASSIFICATION: [🟨] SELL ON RALLY RECOMMENDED STRATEGY: FADE CORRECTIVE REBOUNDS Utilize tactical rallies into overhead moving average clusters or structural resistance zones as sell-short opportunities. Both short- and medium-term regimes indicate heavy selling pressure, making fading upward bounces the highest-probability setup in line with the 14-day bearish trend. ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY: 50-EMA RECLAIM REBOUND Monitor price action around the 50-EMA for medium- to long-term stabilization. If the index finds support at or just below the 50-EMA followed by a decisive reclaim and base formation on lower timeframes, initiate a tactical rebound long position. NOT RECOMMENDED: PREMATURE DIP-BUYING Do not enter long positions while price action continues to slide without structure. Short-term and medium-term conditions are explicitly flagged as "Very Weak," warning against front-running reversals before lower timeframes establish clear stabilization. Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar' This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- ⟳ Internal Rotation: Financials
This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. A Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) highlights the relative strength and momentum of multiple assets against a common benchmark, plotting them on a single visual grid. By tracking the rotational path of these assets, traders can see exactly which sectors, stocks, or asset classes are leading, lagging, or transitioning at any given time. How It Helps Traders Visualizing Sector Rotation: Traders can watch capital flow out of one sector (Weakening) and into another (Improving) before the shift becomes obvious on standard price charts. Pairs Trading: By identifying one asset entering the "Leading" quadrant and another plunging into "Lagging," traders can structure long/short pairs trades with a clear statistical divergence. Momentum Velocity: The "tails" trailing behind each asset on an RRG show trajectory and speed. Longer, widely spaced dots on a tail indicate rapid, violent momentum shifts, while tightly clustered dots suggest consolidation. Macro Condensation: Instead of flipping through dozens of isolated price charts and moving averages, an RRG condenses the entire market's relative performance into a single, actionable snapshot. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- ⟳ Internal Rotation: Rand Hedge
This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. A Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) highlights the relative strength and momentum of multiple assets against a common benchmark, plotting them on a single visual grid. By tracking the rotational path of these assets, traders can see exactly which sectors, stocks, or asset classes are leading, lagging, or transitioning at any given time. How It Helps Traders Visualizing Sector Rotation: Traders can watch capital flow out of one sector (Weakening) and into another (Improving) before the shift becomes obvious on standard price charts. Pairs Trading: By identifying one asset entering the "Leading" quadrant and another plunging into "Lagging," traders can structure long/short pairs trades with a clear statistical divergence. Momentum Velocity: The "tails" trailing behind each asset on an RRG show trajectory and speed. Longer, widely spaced dots on a tail indicate rapid, violent momentum shifts, while tightly clustered dots suggest consolidation. Macro Condensation: Instead of flipping through dozens of isolated price charts and moving averages, an RRG condenses the entire market's relative performance into a single, actionable snapshot. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- 🖥️ Technical Screen: Bottom 10 Weakest Shares / 7-Day Trailing Basis
This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. What is a Technical Screen? In trading and technical analysis, a technical screen (or "screener") is a systematic process used to filter a vast universe of securities—such as the 100+ liquid names on the JSE or the thousands on the NYSE—down to a manageable shortlist that meets specific, predefined criteria. Rather than analyzing every chart manually, a screen acts as a quantitative "funnel" to identify setups where the odds are mathematically skewed in your favor. Why Professionals Use Screens For an investment professional, a screen is less about "finding a tip" and more about process efficiency and bias reduction: Scalability: It allows an analyst to monitor hundreds of shares across multiple timeframes (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) simultaneously. Objectivity: It removes emotional attachment to specific "story stocks" and focuses strictly on price action and momentum profiles. Early Detection: It identifies sector rotations or "alpha flows" before they become obvious to the broader market. The Goal: A technical screen doesn't tell you what to buy; it tells you what is worth your time to investigate today. It turns a sea of data into a high-probability "watchlist." Types of Technical Screens Rotation: Absolute & Relative Trend & Phase Scans Leading Phase: Strong across all timeframes. Lagging Phase: Weak across all timeframes. Waking Up / Turnaround: Short-term strength appearing in a long-term downtrend. Deteriorating: Short-term weakness appearing in a long-term uptrend. Momentum & Velocity Power Trend: Extreme bullish momentum pushing a strong trend higher. Hyper Momentum: Parabolic, highly volatile upside. Violent Breakout: Explosive short-term push reversing a weak long-term trend. Momentum Squeeze: Timeframe convergence (coiling) usually preceding an explosive price move. Over-extended & Extremes Extreme Overbought: Euphoria across the board. Extreme Oversold: Severe panic selling across the board. Overbought Warning in Bear Trend: Violent counter-trend rally ripe for short-selling. Deep Dip in Bull Trend: Sharp, over-extended pullback in a primary uptrend. Capitulation: Total institutional abandonment. Volatility & Accumulation Steady Accumulation: High-quality, low-drama buying. Low Volatility Compounders: Slow, steady, highly predictable uptrends. High Volatility Momentum: Strong trend with wild daily swings. High-Vol Laggards: Dangerous wealth-destroyers with massive daily swings. Dead Money: Trapped in a tight, directionless neutral zone. Market Structure & Divergences Perfect Bull Alignment: Textbook sequential leadership (Short-term leads medium-term, which leads long-term). Perfect Bear Alignment: Textbook sequential breakdown (Short-term leads the decline, dragging down medium and long-term trends). Bullish Divergence: Shorter timeframes dragging a dead long-term trend higher. Bearish Divergence: Shorter timeframes breaking down while the long-term trend still looks great. Stealth Bull: Creeping accumulation while the long-term chart still looks bad. Stealth Bear: Creeping distribution while the long-term chart still looks good. MT Turnaround: Medium-term momentum just crossing out of weakness, pulled by short-term strength. MT Breakdown: Medium-term momentum just dropping out of strength, dragged by short-term weakness. Transitions & Pullbacks Bull Market Correction: Healthy pullback into weak territory within a strong primary trend. Bear Market Rally: Sharp bounce into strong territory within a primary downtrend. Bullish Stall: Short-term momentum flatlining inside a strong trend. Base Building: Bleeding has stopped, chopping sideways at the bottom. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- 🖥️ Technical Screen: Top 10 Strongest Shares / 7-Day Trailing Basis
This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. What is a Technical Screen? In trading and technical analysis, a technical screen (or "screener") is a systematic process used to filter a vast universe of securities—such as the 100+ liquid names on the JSE or the thousands on the NYSE—down to a manageable shortlist that meets specific, predefined criteria. Rather than analyzing every chart manually, a screen acts as a quantitative "funnel" to identify setups where the odds are mathematically skewed in your favor. Why Professionals Use Screens For an investment professional, a screen is less about "finding a tip" and more about process efficiency and bias reduction: Scalability: It allows an analyst to monitor hundreds of shares across multiple timeframes (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) simultaneously. Objectivity: It removes emotional attachment to specific "story stocks" and focuses strictly on price action and momentum profiles. Early Detection: It identifies sector rotations or "alpha flows" before they become obvious to the broader market. The Goal: A technical screen doesn't tell you what to buy; it tells you what is worth your time to investigate today. It turns a sea of data into a high-probability "watchlist." Types of Technical Screens Rotation: Absolute & Relative Trend & Phase Scans Leading Phase: Strong across all timeframes. Lagging Phase: Weak across all timeframes. Waking Up / Turnaround: Short-term strength appearing in a long-term downtrend. Deteriorating: Short-term weakness appearing in a long-term uptrend. Momentum & Velocity Power Trend: Extreme bullish momentum pushing a strong trend higher. Hyper Momentum: Parabolic, highly volatile upside. Violent Breakout: Explosive short-term push reversing a weak long-term trend. Momentum Squeeze: Timeframe convergence (coiling) usually preceding an explosive price move. Over-extended & Extremes Extreme Overbought: Euphoria across the board. Extreme Oversold: Severe panic selling across the board. Overbought Warning in Bear Trend: Violent counter-trend rally ripe for short-selling. Deep Dip in Bull Trend: Sharp, over-extended pullback in a primary uptrend. Capitulation: Total institutional abandonment. Volatility & Accumulation Steady Accumulation: High-quality, low-drama buying. Low Volatility Compounders: Slow, steady, highly predictable uptrends. High Volatility Momentum: Strong trend with wild daily swings. High-Vol Laggards: Dangerous wealth-destroyers with massive daily swings. Dead Money: Trapped in a tight, directionless neutral zone. Market Structure & Divergences Perfect Bull Alignment: Textbook sequential leadership (Short-term leads medium-term, which leads long-term). Perfect Bear Alignment: Textbook sequential breakdown (Short-term leads the decline, dragging down medium and long-term trends). Bullish Divergence: Shorter timeframes dragging a dead long-term trend higher. Bearish Divergence: Shorter timeframes breaking down while the long-term trend still looks great. Stealth Bull: Creeping accumulation while the long-term chart still looks bad. Stealth Bear: Creeping distribution while the long-term chart still looks good. MT Turnaround: Medium-term momentum just crossing out of weakness, pulled by short-term strength. MT Breakdown: Medium-term momentum just dropping out of strength, dragged by short-term weakness. Transitions & Pullbacks Bull Market Correction: Healthy pullback into weak territory within a strong primary trend. Bear Market Rally: Sharp bounce into strong territory within a primary downtrend. Bullish Stall: Short-term momentum flatlining inside a strong trend. Base Building: Bleeding has stopped, chopping sideways at the bottom. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- The Momentum Report
This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Disclosure: The commentary below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on my own inputs/data. Extreme Parabolic Velocity: Stadio Holdings (SDO) and Grindrod (GND) are exhibiting historic upside momentum, locking Overbought regimes across all three timeframes (7-day, 7-week, 7-month) simultaneously, signaling extreme trend acceleration. Severe Capitulatory Velocity: RCL Foods (RCL), We Buy Cars (WBC), and Woolworths (WHL) are trapped in severe momentum collapses, registering outright Oversold readings across all evaluated timeframes. Multi-Timeframe Overbought Saturation: Shares like ADvTECH (ADH), Bytes Technology (BYI), Emira (EMI), and Omnia (OMN) have pushed 7-day and 7-month RSIs into Overbought territory, severely elevating the probability of a mean-reverting pullback. Multi-Timeframe Oversold Saturation: Foschini Group (TFG), Pepkor (PPH), and Kumba Iron Ore (KIO) are displaying deep structural momentum exhaustion, characterized by 7-week and 7-month RSIs plunging into sub-30 territory. Aggressive Counter-Trend Surges: Clicks (CLS), Spar Group (SPP), and Optasia (OPA) have printed massive short-term momentum spikes (Overbought 7-day regimes) completely counter to their dominant long-term bearish trends, signaling violent short-covering. Frictionless Momentum Accumulation: Aspen (APN), Fortress (FFB), and OUTsurance (OUT) showcase perfect trend absorption, maintaining Strong 7-month regimes while 7-day momentum remains Neutral, allowing trend continuation without overbought friction. Momentum Neutralization in Resources: Former momentum leaders like Anglo American (AGL) and Anglogold Ashanti (ANG) are experiencing healthy momentum digestion, cooling 7-day RSIs to Weak/Neutral while maintaining Strong 7-month regimes. Real Estate Momentum Breakouts: A distinct sector-wide momentum surge is visible in REITs. Attacq (ATT), Equites (EQU), and Hyprop (HYP) are simultaneously pushing into High Bullish Momentum on the short-term timeframe. Mega-Cap Tech Deceleration: Naspers (NPN) and Prosus (PRX) are trapped in persistent Weak momentum regimes across all timeframes, creating a massive momentum drag on aggregate market indices. Retail Sector Bifurcation: Momentum is heavily splintered in retail. Shoprite (SHP) and Boxer (BOX) are registering Strong upward momentum, while TFG, WHL, and PIK suffer from deeply depressed Weak to Oversold momentum. Financial Sector Cooling: Banking giants Capitec (CPI), Investec (INL, INP), and FirstRand (FSR) have seen 7-day momentum roll over into Weak territory, erasing short-term premiums and forcing tests of longer-term baselines. Rubber-Band Downside Extension: Exxaro (EXX), Glencore (GLN), and Richemont (CFR) have suffered rapid High Bearish Momentum thrusts, creating extreme vertical dislocation from their 21-day EMAs and setting up exhaustion bounces. Rubber-Band Upside Extension: Brait (BAT), Premier Group (PMR), and Southern Sun (SSU) have generated vertical momentum spikes causing massive upward deviation from their moving averages, marking them as highly vulnerable to sudden profit-taking. Dead Momentum / Zero Velocity: Greencoat (GCT), Canal+ (CNP), and Sabvest (SBP) are displaying completely flat momentum profiles, with Neutral RSIs across the board and zero mean-reversion tension. Momentum Exhaustion Risk: Raubex (RBX) is flashing a High Bullish Momentum short-term regime directly into descending long-term moving averages, a classic signature of impending momentum exhaustion. Aggressive Short-Term Distribution: Quilter (QLT) and Momentum Group (MTM) have abruptly shifted into High Bearish Momentum on the 7-day timeframe, signaling active institutional distribution. Persistent Downward Drag: African Rainbow Minerals (ARI) and Blu Label (BLU) are suffering from a chronic lack of upward momentum, trapped in Weak regimes across all horizons with no signs of divergence. Chemical Sector Digestion: Sasol (SOL) has successfully neutralized its short-term momentum (51.85) after a massive run, while its BEE counterpart (SOLBE1) remains highly Overbought (81.24) and extended. Base-Building Momentum: Alexander Forbes (AFH) and Ninety One (NY1) are showing early signs of momentum shifts, pushing 7-day momentum into Strong territory off historically depressed baselines. Aggregate Momentum Skew: The dataset reveals a highly polarized momentum landscape. Very few stocks occupy the 42-58 (Neutral) band across all timeframes; the market is currently defined by extremes, forcing aggressive mean-reversion setups on both the long and short sides. Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar' This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- The Breadth Report
This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Disclosure: The commentary below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on my own inputs/data. The 200-Day SMA Polarization: Structural breadth is deeply bifurcated. A cluster of robust compounders holds firmly above their 200-day SMAs, while a significant block of heavyweights is structurally broken and trapped below this critical baseline. The 52-Week High Club: Structural breadth leaders expanding into fresh 52-week highs include ADH, GND, OMN, SDO, SSU, PPC, and SHP, demonstrating isolated pockets of extreme accumulation. The 52-Week Low Club: Breadth is heavily anchored by severe breakdowns. KIO, NPN, PPH, RCL, WBC, WHL, and ISO are printing at or near rolling 1-year lows, confirming severe long-term capital flight from these names. Short-Term Moving Average Failures: A broad swath of the resource and financial sectors has recently lost support at the 8-day and 21-day EMAs, signaling a widespread short-term breadth contraction. Structural Breakdown Confirmations: Shares like EXX, NPN, PRX, TFG, and PPH are trading strictly below the 8, 21, 75, and 200-day moving averages, confirming total structural breadth failures with heavy overhead supply. Pullback Support Breadth: High-quality breadth is currently testing dynamic support. CPI, ANH, FSR, and SOL have pulled back directly to their 75-day or 200-day baselines, creating a critical breadth pivot for the broader market. Moving Average Compression: MRP, GCT, CNP, and SRE are exhibiting extreme moving average compression, with the 8, 21, and 75-day EMAs tightly coiled. This breadth signature precedes imminent volatility expansion. Sector Breadth Focus (Real Estate): Property counters exhibit the strongest internal breadth in the dataset. ATT, EMI, EQU, FFB, HYP, and VKE are overwhelmingly trading above all daily and weekly moving averages. Sector Breadth Focus (Retail): Internal retail breadth is highly fragmented. While SHP and BOX provide upside breadth, TRU, TFG, WHL, and PIK are in structural downtrends, masking the true weakness of the sector. Sector Breadth Focus (Resources): Resource breadth is deteriorating in the short term. While long-term trends hold for many, heavyweights like GLN, AGL, ANG, and IMP have slipped below their short-term EMA stacks. Extreme Vertical Dislocation: Breadth is currently strained by vertical extensions. SDO, GND, OMN, and BYI are dislocated so far above their 21-day EMAs that short-term breadth is vulnerable to a sharp mean-reverting correction. Counter-Trend Reclaim Attempts: Breadth is seeing active counter-trend participation from deeply oversold stocks (CLS, OPA, SPP, NY1) successfully reclaiming their 8-day EMAs from below, attempting to build new bases. "Buy on Pullback" Concentration: A high concentration of structurally sound stocks (ATT, BTN, EQU, HYP, PMR, PPC) requires pullbacks for safe entry, indicating that while structural breadth is healthy, short-term entry breadth is poor due to over-extension. Relief Bounce Breadth: A significant percentage of the dataset is flagged as "At/approaching buy/add" strictly due to extreme downside stretch (e.g., CFR, RCL, WBC, KIO). This highlights a market prone to violent short-covering rallies. Distribution Breadth: Stocks marked "Sell on rally" (e.g., AFE, ARL, DCP, HMN, SAP) reveal a wide swath of the market that is trapped under descending moving averages, where any upside breadth expansion will immediately encounter supply. Trendless Middle: A massive cohort of shares (e.g., BVT, CAA, SBP, SEA, VOD) holds Neutral 7-month regimes and is oscillating tightly around flat 200-day SMAs, providing zero structural direction to overall market breadth. 1-Month Range Extremes: Net short-term breadth is negative. More shares in the dataset are currently pinning or hovering near their 1-month lows than are breaking out to 1-month highs. Mega-Cap Breadth Drag: The aggregate breadth of the market is heavily distorted by the structural breakdowns in massive index weightings like Naspers (NPN), Prosus (PRX), and Richemont (CFR). Healthy Continuation Breadth: The highest quality breadth is found in low-volatility compounders labeled "Buy (continuation)" (APN, BID, BOX, FFB, OUT, THA). These stocks are moving steadily upward without distorting moving average baselines. Summary Breadth Posture: The overall breadth profile is deeply fragmented. The market is not moving homogeneously; capital is aggressively crowding into extreme winners (SDO, GND) while ruthlessly liquidating laggards (RCL, WBC, NPN), leaving the middle of the market starved for volume and direction. Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar' This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Northam Platinum: Short Term Traders, Take Profit.
This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. The share traded into our buy re-entry range on Wednesday and has rebounded by 7.5%. Short term traders can use the rebounded to lock in gains. Previous Post (06 September): Trading Northam Platinum: Actionable Areas https://www.unum.capital/post/nph0709 Analysis as of: End of Day, Friday 04 September. Published on: Sunday 06 September. Our previous BUY call on Northam Platinum saw the share trade slightly below the buy re-entry range before staging a 32% rally. *Ratings and Key Levels Are Subject To Change Based On Subsequent News Flow and Price Action. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital Execute Your Trades Via The Unum Capital Trading Desk: Our research is often consumed by traders that execute our ideas via the trading desk of a competing service provider. This means that our screen time and research efforts ultimately benefits our our competitors, who capture the associated brokerage fees. For this reason, some of our discretionary research insights are regarded as premium and available only to active trading clients. If you have been reading our research but use another trading services provider/broker to execute the trades, why not consider moving you trading account to Unum Capital thereby routing the trades through our desk? To get started contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk via e-mail at tradingdesk@unum.co.za . Please Note: The analyst's price action model now forms part of our PREMIUM content.










