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  • Impala, Northam and Valterra: Continuing To Trade Lower In The Ultra Short Term

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Watch the 8-week EMAs! (see blue horizontal lines as provisional levels) NPH - Northam Platinum IMP - Impala Platinum VAL - Valterra Platinum Previous Post (Tuesday, 27 May): JSE Platinum Miners: Retreating In Line With Model Readings On Friday evening we published the Tactical Trading Guide on this website, helping clients get a head start on the week ahead. Following a strong run, it was natural to see the readings for platinum miners caution short term traders against entries near multi-month high. Note, these were also trading in overbought territory. Over the past two sessions we have started to a pullback in the sector with the price CHANGE FROM THE OPENING PRICE of the week as follows. Below that are the time-stamped readings, as you saw on Friday evening: AMS IMP NPH SSW Previous Post (Published end of day Friday 23 May for Monday 26 May): +60 Shares Commentary (incl. Bidvest, Dis-Chem & Mr. Price) Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 23 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Long Term (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Anglo American Plc: 10% Rally; Then Consolidation, Now Re-Emerging Strength

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Notice the strong candle structure with the potential development of a bull flag technical formation? Previous Post (23 May): Anglo American Plc: Generating Cash For Short Term Traders (+Model Follow-Through) Updated chart as of Friday, 23 May at 10h18 (South African Time): This is a great example of a reading we don't often discuss: the bullish reversal trade! A +5.5% gain from around Monday's lows (now +7% as of 11h03) Some decent cash flow for the active trader. The time-stamped model reading is shown below Previous Post (Monday 19 May): Trading Anglo American Plc Current Price Action Model Reading: Current Daily Chart Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Gold Fields: 'We Had 4 Days To Build A Position Before It Rebounded'

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za This is another example of how traders can use the data to capitalize on opportunities. We have been very consistent in re-publishing the Tactical Trading Guide (price action model) at the end of each day. Here, clients are able to obtain a reading for more than 60 shares for 3 time frames. At the end of day on Monday 12 May, the reading for Gold Fields was as follows: 'The share has recently been sold off. Expect a small rebound' . The time-stamped reading and updated chart is shown below: Previous Post (Monday, 12 May) Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Monday 12 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Telkom: Running +72%

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Over the 9 months, the share has appreciated by over 72%, printing multi-year highs. If you've been long off the strategy alert, consider reducing into strength. Current Price Action Model Reading: Previous Post: Strategy Alert (16 August 2024) Pre-Market Ticker: TKG Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Spot Gold: Breaking Down The Current Price Action

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Here's a breakdown of the current price action:   The 7-Day  Trend is indicated as "Strong," while the 14-Day  Trend is "Bullish." Comparison:  Both the short-term ( 7-day ) and slightly longer short-term ( 14-day ) trends indicate upward momentum ("Strong" and "Bullish" respectively). This suggests a consistent buying pressure across these timeframes. The "Bullish" 14-day  trend reinforces the "Strong" 7-day  trend, indicating that the recent strength is part of a broader upward movement. Potential Trading Approach for XAUUSD: Short Term  (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Attempting To Advance Whilst In A Bullish Regime-If It Pulls Back Use The Prior Session Close Or 8-EMA  As An Accumulation Zone". Approach:  The short-term view suggests buying opportunities on pullbacks to the prior session close or the 8-EMA  within the existing bullish regime, indicating a strategy to join the upward trend on temporary weakness. Medium Term  (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "Buyers In Control But Weakness On Lower Time Frame-Look For Pullback To 8  Or 21-EMA  (Buy Range) Before Next Move Higher". Approach:  The medium term suggests that buyers are in control, and potential buying opportunities may arise on pullbacks to the 8-EMA  or 21-EMA  on lower time frames before a further upward move. Long Term  (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model has "no reading available". Approach:  No specific trading approach is provided for the long term. Overall Trading Considerations for XAUUSD: Bullish short to medium term: Both the 7-day  and 14-day  trends are bullish, and the medium-term outlook also favors buyers. Short-term accumulation: The strategy for the short term is to look for accumulation (buying) opportunities on pullbacks. Medium-term pullback buying: The medium term also suggests buying on weakness (pullbacks to EMAs). Long-term uncertainty: There is no reading available for the long-term perspective from this model. Overall Trading Considerations for XAUUSD: Consistent bullish momentum in the short to medium term suggests a bias for buying opportunities on pullbacks. The short-term strategy focuses on accumulating positions at support levels like the prior session close or the 8-EMA . The medium-term view reinforces this by suggesting buying ranges around the 8-EMA  or 21-EMA  on lower time frames. The absence of a long-term reading means that the analysis is primarily focused on the shorter to medium-term horizons. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Our Research Is Your Opportunity: Capitalizing On A Multi-Week Rally

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za This is an update on Monday, 02 June: To summarize, global markets have rallied back to multi-week highs. Locally, the JSE Top 40 Index has rallied to an all-time high, appreciating by 23% off the Monday 07 April lows. Precious Post (10 April): Six Research Notes Which Helped Our Clients Thus Week. This week, some clients took advantage of the enormous volatility. Well done to those who profited. To those who haven't been participating, get involved, there's money to be made. Below are six research notes from this week which helped clients manage risk, understand the current environment and uncover opportunities: (1) Global Market Breadth / Russell 3000 & S&P 500 | US equity market breadth was completely washed out. This highlighted the pending (and appealing) reward-to-risk. On Wednesday, US stocks had it's best day since October 2008 . Read the original note here: https://www.unum.capital/post/rus3k and here https://www.unum.capital/post/us200day (2) Market Risk Index / Nasdaq +10% Rally | On Wednesday morning, the Market Risk Index was screaming at us!!!. I published that note in real-time with a further update on the Nasdaq which rallied by over 10% into the evening. You can read that update here: https://www.unum.capital/post/oppspot (3) Actionable Areas: FSR and Prosus | For every trader, this should be the continuous question: "Where is the next best level to buy and where is the next best level to sell?" . As of Thursday morning, FirstRand rallied by more than 20% from Monday's provisional buy re-entry range. Prosus traded into the buy re-entry range (72000c to 73000c) and then rallied to an intraday high of 81800c. A 1-day intraday gain of 12%. The updated and original notes can be found here: FSR https://www.unum.capital/post/firstcash and PRX https://www.unum.capital/post/prosusgen (4) Brent Crude Oil: The note was an update to the weekly structure (a further breakdown) while the price action model recognized the ultra short term oversold conditions with both the short and medium term readings pointing to an appealing buy/long reward-to-risk. The commodity subsequently rallied between 7 and 10% . You can read the update here: https://www.unum.capital/post/brentsvn (5) Local Market Breadth / JSE Mid & Large Caps | The note highlighted that out of the 98 shares with a market cap above R10bn, 40 of them closed in an oversold range. This, was a rarity and highlighted the extremely broad-based oversold conditions. Our comment include the following: .... "This widespread oversold reading may point towards a potential near-term buying opportunity  as the large number of stocks at these levels could be poised for a rebound...." You can read the updated and original note here: https://www.unum.capital/post/breadthreward (6) JSE Top 40 Index | Original note here: https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyweekly What the note contained... "Short Term (1 to 10 days):  The short-term reading is Oversold . This suggests that the index has likely experienced a significant decline and may be due for a rebound or consolidation. However, being oversold alone doesn't guarantee an immediate reversal." Our initial assessment of the key levels... As of Thursday morning (10 April, 09h09), this is how it's going...a 10% rally. Notice the Monday drop into the prior swing lows as per the above price action reading? Connect with the trading desk today. E-mail   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Foschini

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Here's an assessment of the price action model for FOSCHINI: 7-Day Trend : Strong 14-Day Trend : Bullish Comparison: Both the short-term ( 7-day ) and slightly longer short-term ( 14-day ) trends indicate upward momentum ("Strong" and "Bullish" respectively). This suggests a consistent buying pressure across these timeframes. The "Bullish" 14-day  trend reinforces the "Strong" 7-day  trend, indicating that the recent strength is part of a broader upward movement. Potential Trading Approach for FOSCHINI: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days) : The model notes, "In or Commencing Upward Trend However Strongly Consider The Potential Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs Which Will Create A Tactical Short-Sell Opportunity". Approach: While in or commencing an upward trend, strongly consider potential short-sell opportunities if the price fails to hold above the prior session's range highs. Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks) : The model indicates "Attempting A Bullish Reversal Following A Consolidation Phase". Approach: The medium term suggests that the recent bullish activity is likely an attempt at a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. This supports a bullish bias over the next few weeks. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "Recently Advanced From A Sideways Consolidation. If It Doesn't Hold Prior Session Highs Then Consider Potential For Retracement To Retest The Range Breakout." Approach: The long-term perspective indicates a recent advance from a sideways consolidation. However, if it doesn't hold prior session highs, then consider the potential for a retracement to retest the range breakout. Overall Trading Considerations for FOSCHINI: Mixed short-term signals: While indicating an upward trend, there's a strong consideration for potential short-sell opportunities based on failure to hold prior session range highs. Medium-term bullish reversal: The medium term reinforces a bullish sentiment following a consolidation. Long-term breakout with a caveat: The long term shows an advance from consolidation, but highlights the importance of holding prior session highs to avoid a retest of the breakout level. In summary , for FOSCHINI, the current view presents a potential upward trend in the short term with a significant caveat for tactical shorts, a bullish reversal attempt in the medium term, and a long-term advance from consolidation that needs to hold recent highs. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Top 10 Biggest Monthly Gainers: Where Do They Stand In The Technical Regime?

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za This note highlights the biggest monthly gainers (change from open of month to close of month) and considers where they are ranked from overbought to oversold. Note: Since these share have had positive moves, the shift in regime would be 1 or 2 levels up from the previous month. Blue Label Telecoms - Overbought, Last Month = Also Overbought Sibanye Stillwater - Strong, Last Month = Neutral Sasol - Weak, Last Month = Oversold Karooooo - Overbought, Last Month = Strong Tiger Brands - Overbought, Last Month = High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Northam Platinum - Strong, Last Month = Neutral Impala Platinum - Strong, Last Month = Neutral Alexander Forbes - High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought, Last Month = Strong We Buy Cars - Overbought, Last Month = High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Investec Plc - Neutral, Last Month = Weak Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Harmony Gold: Technical Condition + Price Action Probabilities

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Here is an assessment of the price action model for Harmony Gold: The 7-Day Trend  is indicated as "Weak". The 14-Day Trend  is "Bearish". Comparison: The short-term ( 7-day ) trend is weak, while the slightly longer short-term ( 14-day ) trend is bearish. This suggests downward momentum or a lack of strong upward movement across these timeframes. The bearish 14-day  trend reinforces the weak 7-day  trend, indicating that the recent weakness is part of a broader downward movement. Potential Trading Approach for Harmony Gold: Short Term  (Approximately Within The Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Very Weak Wait Until It Stabilizes On The Lower Time Frame". Approach: Given the weakness, it's advisable to wait for some sign of stabilization on a lower timeframe before considering any trading actions. Medium Term  (Approximately Within The Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "Upward Trend But Has Turned Weaker, However Use Rebounds Into The 8, 21 or 50-EMA As A Potential Sell Short Range". Approach: While there was an upward trend, it has weakened. Look for potential short-selling opportunities on rebounds towards the 8, 21, or 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Long Term  (Approximately Within The Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "Strong Upward Trend But Long Risk Reward Unattractive Minor Pullback At Present Expect Consolidation". Approach: The long-term trend is still upward, but the risk-reward is currently unattractive due to a minor pullback. Consolidation is expected in the near term. Overall Trading Considerations for Harmony Gold: Conflicting signals: The short to medium terms indicate weakness or potential short opportunities, contrasting with the long-term strong upward trend. Short-term caution: The model advises waiting for stabilization in the short term due to the current weakness. Medium-term short potential: Rebounds in the medium term could offer opportunities to sell short. Long-term consolidation: Despite the strong long-term trend, expect consolidation in the coming weeks. In summary, for HARMONY GOLD, the current view suggests short to medium-term weakness with potential short-selling opportunities on rebounds, while the long term remains bullish but is currently in a less attractive risk-reward situation with expected consolidation. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • +60 Shares Commentary (incl. Absa, Remgro & Sanlam)

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 30 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Long Term (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Glencore: Relative Outperformance, Adding +440c (or +6.7%)

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Today, (Friday 30-May), the share stood out among it's peers, adding over 3% for the session. Over the week and since last week Friday's post, we saw a 6.7% gain, with the share also advancing in line with the price action model. Previous Post (Friday): 23Trading Glencore Plc: Technical Regime + Price Action Probabilities The 50-day EMA is losing downside momentum. Reclaiming the 50-EMA + clearing the downward trend line resistance opens up a path back toward the 200-day SMA. Fundamentally, the Copper bull case (supply shortage) remains in tact. Analyst Disclosure: The summary below (based on the price action guide above), has been written with an A.I tool. Summary The overall setup for Glencore PLC appears to be mildly bullish to neutral with a potential for bullish development . In the short term (1-10 trading days) , the analysis indicates that Glencore PLC is "Attempting A Bullish Reversal Following A Consolidation Phase." This suggests that after a period of sideways movement, there is an emerging upward momentum being observed. This points to a potential for a bullish move in the near term. Looking at the medium term (next 2 to 4 weeks) , the expectation is that Glencore PLC is "Attempting A Rebound Following A Downward Trend May Consolidate Further Before Continuing Higher." This implies that while there might have been a recent downtrend, the analysis anticipates a recovery. The mention of potential further consolidation suggests a cautious optimism, indicating a possible pause before a more sustained upward movement. In the long term (next 5 to 8 weeks) , the outlook is "Range-Bound In A Weak Regime - Recovery Buy/Long Is Triggered On Strong Bids And Break of Current Range High." This suggests that the price is currently confined within a certain range. However, the strategy outlined indicates a bullish bias, with buy or long positions being considered upon the appearance of strong buying interest or a breakout above the current range's upper limit. Summary:  While the 7-day and 14-day trends are currently neutral and range-bound respectively, the analysis across the short, medium, and long term shows a leaning towards potential bullish developments. The short term highlights an attempted bullish reversal, the medium term anticipates a rebound, and the long term suggests a bullish entry point upon specific conditions being met. Therefore, the overall tone is cautiously optimistic with a bullish tilt. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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