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  • JSE Relative Sector Ratings: Here's What's Leading/Improving

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Here's an analysis of the JSE sectors considering the weighting of the timeframes (Short > Medium > Long): Technology VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Weak Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  Strong Change Analysis:  A drastic deterioration from Strong (Long Term) to Neutral (Medium Term) and further to Weak (Short Term). Overall Preference:  Leans Weak due to the most recent Short Term signal outweighing the Long Term strength. Miners VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Weak Long Term:  High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold Change Analysis:  Improvement from High Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold (Long Term) to Weak (Medium Term) but no further improvement in the Short Term. Overall Preference:  Leans Weak due to the recent Medium Term signal and the negative Long Term momentum. Banks VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  Neutral Change Analysis:  Consistent Neutral across all timeframes. Overall Preference:  Neutral. Insurers VS TOP 40 Short Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Medium Term:  Strong Long Term:  Strong Change Analysis:  Improvement from Strong (Long Term) to Strong (Medium Term) and further to High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought (Short Term). Overall Preference:  Strong, with the Short Term signal indicating potential for continued outperformance but also caution due to overbought conditions. Gold Miners VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  Strong Change Analysis:  Deterioration from Strong (Long Term) to Neutral in both Medium and Short Term. Overall Preference:  Neutral, as the recent signals outweigh the Long Term strength. Platinum Miners VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  Neutral Change Analysis:  Consistent Neutral across all timeframes. Overall Preference:  Neutral. Consumer Staples VS TOP 40 Short Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Medium Term:  Strong Long Term:  Neutral Change Analysis:  Improvement from Neutral (Long Term) to Strong (Medium Term) and further to High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought (Short Term). Overall Preference:  Strong, with the Short Term signal suggesting continued outperformance but nearing overbought levels. Consumer Disc. VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  Neutral Change Analysis:  Consistent Neutral across all timeframes. Overall Preference:  Neutral. Healthcare VS TOP 40 Short Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  Weak Change Analysis:  Significant improvement from Weak (Long Term) to Neutral (Medium Term) and further to High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought (Short Term). Overall Preference:  Strong, driven by the recent Short Term momentum. Hospitals VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  Weak Change Analysis:  Improvement from Weak (Long Term) to Neutral in both Medium and Short Term. Overall Preference:  Neutral, with some improvement from the longer term. Coal Miners VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold Long Term:  High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold Change Analysis:  Improvement from High Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold (Long Term and Medium Term) to Neutral (Short Term). Overall Preference:  Neutral, showing some recent stabilization after a period of negative momentum. Telecoms VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Strong Medium Term:  Strong Long Term:  Strong Change Analysis:  Consistent Strong performance across all timeframes. Overall Preference:  Strong. Paper & Pulp VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold Change Analysis:  Improvement from High Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold (Long Term) to Neutral in both Medium and Short Term. Overall Preference:  Neutral, indicating a recent stabilization after negative longer-term momentum. Chemicals VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Strong Long Term:  High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold Change Analysis:  Improvement from High Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold (Long Term) to Strong (Medium Term), followed by a slight deterioration to Neutral in the Short Term. Overall Preference:  Leans Neutral, with the recent Short Term signal carrying more weight than the Medium Term strength. Luxury Goods VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Weak Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  Neutral Change Analysis:  Deterioration from Neutral (Long Term and Medium Term) to Weak (Short Term). Overall Preference:  Weak due to the most recent Short Term signal. Summary Ranking of Sectors (Preference based on Short Term, then Medium, then Long Term): Insurers VS TOP 40:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought (Short Term) Consumer Staples VS TOP 40:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought (Short Term) Healthcare VS TOP 40:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought (Short Term) Telecoms VS TOP 40:  Strong (Short Term) Chemicals VS TOP 40:  Neutral (Short Term), Strong (Medium Term) Gold Miners VS TOP 40:  Neutral (Short Term), Neutral (Medium Term), Strong (Long Term) Banks VS TOP 40:  Neutral (Short Term), Neutral (Medium Term), Neutral (Long Term) Platinum Miners VS TOP 40:  Neutral (Short Term), Neutral (Medium Term), Neutral (Long Term) Consumer Disc. VS TOP 40:  Neutral (Short Term), Neutral (Medium Term), Neutral (Long Term) Hospitals VS TOP 40: Neutral (Short Term), Neutral (Medium Term), Weak (Long Term) Coal Miners VS TOP 40: Neutral (Short Term), High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold (Medium Term) Paper & Pulp VS TOP 40: Neutral (Short Term), Neutral (Medium Term), High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold (Long Term) Miners VS TOP 40 : Neutral (Short Term), Weak (Medium Term), High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold (Long Term) Technology VS TOP 40: Weak (Short Term), Neutral (Medium Term), Strong (Long Term) Luxury Goods VS TOP 40 : Weak (Short Term), Neutral (Medium Term), Neutral (Long Term) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Breadth: Interpretation of Market Conditions

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Interpretation of Market Conditions This note interprets the market breadth readings for JSE Mid & Large Caps at the close of trading on two Fridays: 23 May 2025 and 30 May 2025. End of Day: 23 May 2025 The majority of the 102 constituents were in a Neutral  state (35). A significant number of constituents exhibited Strong  momentum (29). There were 6 constituents considered Overbought  and 5 showing High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought . These readings might suggest potential selling opportunities in these specific constituents. On the bearish side, 26 constituents were Weak , 1 showed High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold , and 1 was Oversold , potentially indicating a near-term opportunity in this single constituent. End of Day: 30 May 2025 The number of constituents increased slightly to 103. The Neutral  category remained the largest, increasing to 37 constituents. The number of Overbought  constituents nearly doubled to 11, and those with High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought  also increased significantly to 14. This suggests a general shift towards potential selling pressure compared to the previous week. The number of Strong  constituents increased slightly to 33. The Weak  category saw a substantial decrease to 7 constituents. The High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold  category remained low at 1, and there were no constituents in Oversold  territory. This suggests fewer immediate near-term buying opportunities based on these readings compared to the previous week. Summary of Market Shift Comparing the two periods, there appears to be a move towards more overbought conditions in the JSE Mid & Large Caps. The increase in constituents classified as Overbought  and having High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought  from 11 to 25 collectively suggests that potential selling opportunities may be more prevalent at the end of 30 May compared to the end of 23 May. Conversely, the decrease in Weak  and Oversold  readings indicates fewer immediate near-term buying opportunities based on this market breadth data. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Top 40 Index: Weekly Chart Analysis: Running +23%

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Here's a breakdown of the current price action for the JSE TOP 40 (J200): The 7-day  trend is indicated as "Overbought". The 14-day  trend is "Very Bullish". Comparison: The 7-day  trend suggests that the price may have risen too quickly and could be due for a pullback, indicated by "Overbought". In contrast, the 14-day  trend being "Very Bullish" suggests a stronger underlying upward momentum over a slightly longer timeframe. This indicates that while the very short term might be stretched, the broader short-term trend is still strongly positive. Potential Trading Approach for ISE TOP 40: Short Term  (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Buyers In Control But Weakness On Lower Time Frame-Look For Pullback To 8 or 21-EMA (Buy Range) Before Next Move Higher". Approach: While buyers are in control, there's short-term weakness. Look for potential buying opportunities on pullbacks to the 8 or 21-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) as potential entry points for the next upward move. Medium Term  (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "Aggressive Buying Wait For Pullback To Enter Next-Alternatively If The Highs Fail To Hold Then Short Back To The 8 or 21-EMA". Approach: There's aggressive buying in the medium term. Wait for pullbacks to enter long positions. Alternatively, if the recent highs fail to hold, consider shorting back down to the 8 or 21-EMAs. Long Term  (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control But Don't Chase-May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs-If It Doesn't Hold Then The 8-EMA May Be A Short/Sell Target". Approach: There's a very strong move with buyers in control in the long term, but caution is advised against chasing the price. If the highs fail to hold, the 8-EMA could become a potential short/sell target. Overall Trading Considerations for ISE TOP 40: Conflicting short-term signals: The "Overbought" 7-day  trend contrasts with the "Very Bullish" 14-day  trend, suggesting potential for short-term consolidation or pullback within a broader bullish context. Focus on pullbacks for entries: Across all timeframes, the model suggests looking for pullbacks to the EMAs as potential buying opportunities. Caution on chasing strength: The model advises against chasing the upward momentum in both the medium and long term, highlighting potential for failure to hold highs. In summary, for the ISE TOP 40, the current view suggests underlying bullish strength, but with potential for short-term pullbacks. Traders should look for controlled entries on weakness rather than chasing the price higher. Previous Post (05 April): JSE Top 40 Index: Weekly Chart Analysis JSE Top 40 Index Analysis: Short Term (1 to 10 days):  The short-term reading is Oversold . This suggests that the index has likely experienced a significant decline and may be due for a rebound or consolidation. However, being oversold alone doesn't guarantee an immediate reversal. Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks):  The medium-term reading is Weak . This implies that the index has been trending downwards over the past few weeks, indicating underlying selling pressure. Long Term (5 to 8 weeks):  The long-term reading is Neutral . This suggests that over a broader timeframe, the index hasn't established a clear upward or downward trend. Overall Assessment: Taking into account the weighted importance (short-term being the most significant), the JSE Top 40 Index exhibits deteriorating  price action. While the oversold reading in the short term might offer a temporary bounce, the weakness in the medium term, coupled with the lack of a strong long-term trend, suggests caution. The recent price action is more aligned with the medium-term weakness than the potential for a short-term recovery. JSE TOP 40 WEEKLY CHART Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Market Risk Index: Short, Medium & Long Term Sentiment

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (09 April): Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.

  • Dis-Chem Pharmacies: Down 5.7% On Results + In Line With Model Reading

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za DCP has given us opportunities on both the buy and sell side. The model reading below is what was published in Thursday evening: "Strong upside move, but momentum slowing with sellers becoming active". The chart is as of Friday morning at 11h40. Previous Post (Monday, 26 May): Dis-Chem Pharmacies: Into The Buy Range, Overshoot & Rally (+26%) This is an update on the previous posts where we highlighted the ACTIONABLE AREAS. Scroll further down to view the original posts. Do you recall the recent market volatility i.e. early April (Thursday 03, Friday 04 and Monday 07 April)? The share traded into the buy range, then overshot on the downside which was followed by a rally. Today, the share has continued to rally on the group's trading statement. We also saw triggers in the lows (Thursday, 03 April) where the model highlighted that the share was becoming attractive for a small buy/long position. Previous Post: Trading Dis-Chem Pharmacies: Actionable Areas We discussed DCP on 07 January as part of a note where the 200-day SMA was a focus. A bearish divergence was highlighted and we have since seen the share decline from 3720 to Friday's low of 3233, a decline of 13%. Running the price action model, there are some early triggers that suggest the share is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position. We combine this with a manual view of actionable areas which can be found further down this page. DCP Actionable Areas Previous Post (07 January): WORTH NOTING: 200-Day Developments (Tiger Brands, Outsurance, Mr. Price & More) I used Artificial Intelligence to provide an explanation on why the 200-day SMA is significant. Here's what it had to say: The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is a widely used technical indicator in trading. It calculates the average closing price of an asset over the past 200 trading days, providing a smoothed representation of price movements. This smoothing effect helps traders identify longer-term trends amidst daily price fluctuations. Key Developments and Implications: Support and Resistance: When the price of an asset is above the 200-day SMA, it often acts as a support level. Conversely, when the price is below the 200-day SMA, it can act as resistance. Trend Confirmation: A sustained move above the 200-day SMA can signal a bullish trend, while a sustained move below it can indicate a bearish trend. Crossovers: Crossovers between the price and the 200-day SMA can generate trading signals. For example, a price crossing above the 200-day SMA might be interpreted as a bullish signal, while a cross below could be seen as bearish. Time Frame: The 200-day SMA is a long-term indicator, typically used to analyze trends over several months or even years. In Summary: The 200-day SMA is a valuable tool for traders and investors to: Identify long-term trends Determine support and resistance levels Generate trading signals Assess the overall market sentiment By understanding the 200-day SMA and its implications, traders can make more informed decisions about their investment strategies. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Naspers: Retreating From Upper Boundary of Channel + How To Trade

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Here's a breakdown of the current price action for NASPERS: The 7-day trend  is indicated as "Neutral," while the 14-day trend  is "Rangebound." Comparison: The short-term ( 7-day ) trend is neutral, suggesting a lack of clear directional momentum in the very recent past. The slightly longer short-term ( 14-day ) trend is rangebound, indicating that the price has been fluctuating within a specific high and low without a sustained upward or downward movement. This suggests that while there isn't a strong directional bias in either timeframe, the 14-day  view shows a period of consolidation rather than a clear trend. Potential Trading Approach for NASPERS: [ Short Term ] Expected Time Period To Unfold: Approximately Within The Next 1 to 10 Trading Days : The model notes, "Upward Trend But Has Turned Weaker, However Use Rebounds Into The 8, 21 or 50-EMA As A Potential Sell Short Range." Approach:  While there might have been an upward trend, it's now showing weakness. Consider using bounces up to the 8, 21, or 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) as potential opportunities to sell short within the current range. [ Medium Term ] Expected Time Period To Unfold: Approximately Within The Next 2 to 4 Weeks  | Apply Daily/Weekly Moving Averages Where Applicable: The model indicates, "Bullish Momentum Is Slowing On Lower Time Frames-Look For Minor Support On 8, 21 or 50-Day EMA As A Buy Range For A Rebound." Approach:  Bullish momentum is weakening in the shorter timeframes. Look for potential buying opportunities (buy range) around the 8, 21, or 50-day EMAs for a possible rebound. [ Long Term ] Expected Time Period To Unfold: Approximately Within The Next 5 to 8 Weeks  | Apply Weekly Moving Averages & Time Frames (i.e. In Some Cases, Daily): The model states, "Buyers In Control But Weakness On Lower Time Frame-Look For Pullback To 8 or 21-EMA (Buy Range) Before Next Move Higher." Approach:  Buyers are generally in control, but there's short-term weakness. Look for potential pullbacks to the 8 or 21-period EMAs as buying opportunities before the price potentially moves higher. Overall Trading Considerations for NASPERS: Conflicting signals: The short-term is neutral to bearish (looking for shorts on rebounds), while the medium and long terms suggest bullish control but with opportunities to buy on weakness (pullbacks). Short-term strategy: Focus on selling short on bounces within the range. Medium-term strategy: Look for buying opportunities on dips to support levels (EMAs) for a potential rebound. Long-term strategy: Maintain a bullish bias, anticipating buying opportunities on pullbacks before a further upward move. In summary, for NASPERS, the current view suggests a short-term rangebound market with opportunities to sell short on strength, while the medium and long terms lean bullish, favoring buying on weakness. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • FirstRand Running 29%: Where To From Here?

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share has rebounded sharply, with today's high being 29% above the buy range of 5800c to 6000c. The price action model reading as at the time of analysis is as follows: Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day  trend is indicated as "Strong," while the 14-day  trend is "Bullish." Comparison: Both the short-term ( 7-day ) and slightly longer short-term ( 14-day ) trends indicate upward momentum ("Strong" and "Bullish" respectively). This suggests a consistent buying pressure across these timeframes. The "Bullish" 14-day  trend reinforces the "Strong" 7-day  trend, indicating that the recent strength is part of a broader upward movement. Potential Trading Approach for FIRSTRAND: Short Term  (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Attempting To Advance Whilst In A Bullish Regime-If It Pulls Back Use The Prior Session Close Or 8-EMA As An Accumulation Zone." Approach: The short term suggests an ongoing bullish regime. If the price pulls back, the prior session's close or the 8-period EMA could act as potential accumulation zones for buying opportunities. Medium Term  (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "Attempting A Bullish Reversal Following A Consolidation Phase." Approach: The medium term suggests that the recent bullish activity is likely an attempt at a reversal after a period of consolidation, supporting a bullish outlook over the next few weeks. Long Term  (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "Attempting To Rebound Within A Range General Trend Up-Buy/Long On Strong Bids Near The High Of Range." Approach: The long-term perspective suggests the price is attempting to rebound within an overall upward trending range. Buying or going long on strong bids near the high of this range is favored. Overall Trading Considerations for FIRSTRAND: Consistent bullish momentum: Both short and slightly longer short-term trends are bullish, supporting upward price action. Short-term accumulation on pullbacks: Short-term traders might look for buying opportunities during pullbacks to the prior session close or the 8-EMA. Medium-term bullish reversal: The medium term reinforces the bullish sentiment following a consolidation. Long-term buying near range highs: The long term suggests buying opportunities near the high of the established upward trending range. In summary, for FIRSTRAND, the current view is bullish across short to long terms, suggesting potential buying opportunities on short-term pullbacks and near the highs of a longer-term upward range. Previous Post: Actionable Areas: FirsrRand (Published Saturday 05 April for Monday 07 April) Original Post: https://www.unum.capital/post/fsraction FirstRand (FSR) is down 29% from it's Sept-2024 peak, with the share trading near it's June lows. It's not inconceivable that the share could trade down at the 5800c to 6000c range , which is a medium term support range. At current levels, oversold conditions are already present which reflects aggressive selling pressure however, also raises the probability of an ultra short term rebound . Last close: 6293c FSR Daily Chart as of the close on Friday 04 April Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 📌Research: 26 - 30 May 2025

    DID YOU KNOW? Year-to-date, we have published over 950 research notes. If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk, why not consider making us your trading services provider? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Free +60 Shares Commentary (incl. IMP, RNI & SHP) https://www.unum.capital/post/sxtyrni Free Trading Bidvest https://www.unum.capital/post/bvtpro Free Trading US30 / Dow Jones https://www.unum.capital/post/traus30 Free JSE Top 40 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/tpforty Free +60 Shares Commentary (incl. AVI, TBS & SOL) https://www.unum.capital/post/sxtyavi Free How To Trade: Absa https://www.unum.capital/post/absainfo Free Trading MTN Group https://www.unum.capital/post/mtnbrkdn Free Tiger Brands: Interims, Strong Cash Gen + Special Dividend https://www.unum.capital/post/tbsinter Free ETF For Diversified Exposure To Copper Miners https://www.unum.capital/post/copxidea Free Market Risk Index: Short Term Sentiment https://www.unum.capital/post/stsenti Free Technical Screen 4x Shares Overbought https://www.unum.capital/post/frovbo Free +60 Shares Commentary (incl. 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CPI, EXX & NPN) https://www.unum.capital/post/sixtycpi Free Old Mutual: Model Short Setup Underway https://www.unum.capital/post/omutrade Free Trading Sasol https://www.unum.capital/post/soleighty Free  Strategy Alert: Momentum Group https://www.unum.capital/post/strmntm Premium Let's Make A Trade https://www.unum.capital/post/makea Free U. S Market Sector Breadth https://www.unum.capital/post/brdthtw Free Market Risk Index: How Is Sentiment Evolving? https://www.unum.capital/post/mriski Free Trading Northam Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/norplat Free Global Idea: iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF https://www.unum.capital/post/tradewn Free Ninety One: Actionable Areas https://www.unum.capital/post/nyone Free JSE Top 40 Index: 85,000 & Indecision Near ATHs https://www.unum.capital/post/eightyfive Free +60 Shares Commentary (incl. TFG, KIO & NTC) https://www.unum.capital/post/cmntfg Free Managing Risk & Uncovering Opportunity: B.A Tobacco https://www.unum.capital/post/tobaccopp Free Trading OUTsurance: Short Sellers Generating Cash https://www.unum.capital/post/outsurecash Free Trading Naspers https://www.unum.capital/post/nsprspb Free Trading Prosus https://www.unum.capital/post/prosuspback Free Trading Nvidia: Short Term Overbought + Current Model https://www.unum.capital/post/tradenvda Free Trading Anglo American Plc https://www.unum.capital/post/angloplc Free Trading Spot Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/sptxau Free Trading S&P 500 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/usfiveh Free +60 Shares Commentary (incl. AVI, QLT & PIK)   https://www.unum.capital/post/sixtypik Free Breadth: Interpretation of Market Conditions   https://www.unum.capital/post/brdchnge Free Market Risk Index https://www.unum.capital/post/mrskindex Free JSE Top 40 Index Short Term Cycle https://www.unum.capital/post/tforty Free JSE Relative Sector Ratings https://www.unum.capital/post/sctrreview Free JSE Regime Trend https://www.unum.capital/post/frtyregime Free Trading Momentum-Metropolitan https://www.unum.capital/post/mtmrall Free JSE Gold Miners: Relative Unwind (-23%) https://www.unum.capital/post/gminerelative Free Trading ANG, GFI & HAR https://www.unum.capital/post/gldmnrs Free Sector In Focus: Banks https://www.unum.capital/post/focusbanks Missed The Research For 12 - 16 May? Catch Up Below Richemont: Short/Long; Gap Filled & Rebound +20% https://www.unum.capital/post/richrbnd Trading Clicks https://www.unum.capital/post/clsreversal These 3 Shares Closed In Oversold Territory https://www.unum.capital/post/threeovb +60 Shares Commentary (incl. APN, EXX & MNP) https://www.unum.capital/post/sixtyapn Market Risk Index: Daily & Weekly https://www.unum.capital/post/riskdw USD/ZAR: Reward-To-Risk Becoming... https://www.unum.capital/post/randlong How Cool Is This? https://www.unum.capital/post/omucool Trading OUTsurance https://www.unum.capital/post/outbear Trading Spot Gold (XAU/USD) https://www.unum.capital/post/xauthree +60 Shares Commentary (incl. ANH, CFR & SBK) https://www.unum.capital/post/sxtyanh US10Y: Rebound In Yield In Line With Model Reading https://www.unum.capital/post/yieldrbnd Prosus: Running +34%, However Now In Overbought Range https://www.unum.capital/post/prxwinner European Financials ETF: Running +23% https://www.unum.capital/post/eufinetf Update: Brazil Equities ETF, Running +19.8% https://www.unum.capital/post/brally Short Term Traders, Caution on Naspers https://www.unum.capital/post/naspmodel Sasol: Here's What The Data Says https://www.unum.capital/post/httsol Nasdaq / US 100 Index: Short Term Overbought Range https://www.unum.capital/post/usonehun Trading Spot Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/spotxpt Top 40 Index: Update + Current Model Reading https://www.unum.capital/post/twentyone Spot Silver: Analysis of Price Action https://www.unum.capital/post/xagspot Trading UBER Technologies https://www.unum.capital/post/uberally +60 Shares Commentary (incl. TFG, MTN & OUT) https://www.unum.capital/post/sxtytfg African Rainbow: Using Data To Recognize (& Assess) Risk https://www.unum.capital/post/rainbowrisk Market Risk Index: Current Sentiment Reading https://www.unum.capital/post/mktrsk Trading Glencore https://www.unum.capital/post/glnupdt Trading South 32 https://www.unum.capital/post/sthirty Spot Gold: $200 Decline + In Line With Model Reading https://www.unum.capital/post/goldtwo Pepkor's Power Move. Now Running 26% https://www.unum.capital/post/pphpower Mondi Plc: Three-Day Rebound From Buy Zone https://www.unum.capital/post/mnprbnd Breadth: Interpretation of Market Conditions https://www.unum.capital/post/inbreadth FirstRand Running 28%: Where To From Here? https://www.unum.capital/post/fsrunning +60 Shares Commentary (incl. ABG, CLS & GRT) https://www.unum.capital/post/sxtycmnts Russell 3K: +18% Rally Following 'Washed-Out' Breadth Readings https://www.unum.capital/post/r3krally S&P 500: Overshoots 200d / Resistance In Focus https://www.unum.capital/post/spfivetw DAX Index: Short Term Overbought; Early Sellers Emerging https://www.unum.capital/post/daxovbo Top 40: +20% Rally = Cash Flow For Active Traders https://www.unum.capital/post/frtyrally Trading US Dollar Index https://www.unum.capital/post/dllrbnd Trading Prosus (PRX) https://www.unum.capital/post/prxtwight Generating Cash: AngloGold / Gold Fields / Harmony https://www.unum.capital/post/genang +60 Shares Commentary (incl. ARI, N91 & SSW) https://www.unum.capital/post/sixtycomments Full Report: The Sum of the Charts (Coverage Below) https://www.unum.capital/post/sotc1205 Market Risk Index JSE Top 40 Index Short Term Cycle JSE Relative Sector Ratings Market Breadth: Opportunity vs Risk JSE Market Breadth JSE Regime Trend S&P Regime Trend EUR/USD: Update Actionable Areas: Naspers Actionable Areas: Richemont Actionable Areas: British American Tobacco Actionable Areas: Prosus Actionable Areas: Glencore Actionable Areas: Anglo American Plc Actionable Areas: Anglogold Ashanti Actionable Areas: Firstrand Group Update: Spot Gold (XAU/USD) JSE Technical Summary Seclected Currencies: Regimes Seclected Commodities: Regimes Sector In Focus: Food Retailers Recent Opportunities: Bid Corp Recent Opportunities: Tiger Brands Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital Archive/Year-To-Date Research Links 19 May to 23 May https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may 12 May to 16 May https://www.unum.capital/post/research-12-16-may-2025 05 May to 09 May https://www.unum.capital/post/research-05-09-may-2025 28 April to 02 May https://www.unum.capital/post/research-28-april-02-may-2025 21 April to 25 April https://www.unum.capital/post/212504 14 April to 18 April https://www.unum.capital/post/research-14-18-april-2025 07 April to 11 April https://www.unum.capital/post/research-07-11-april-2025 31 March to 04 April https://www.unum.capital/post/research-31-march-04-april-2025 24 March to 28 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-24-28-march-2025 17 March to 21 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-17-21-march-2025 10 March to 14 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-10-14-march-2025 02 January to 07 March https://www.unum.capital/post/latest-research-january-2025

  • +60 Shares Commentary (incl. Implats, Reinet & Shoprite)

    Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Thursday 29 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Long Term (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Bidvest Group: Strong/Bullish + Technical Probabilities Over 3x Time Frames

    Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Here's a breakdown of the price action for BIDVEST: The 7-day trend  is indicated as "Strong." The 14-day trend  is "Bullish." Comparison: Both the short-term ( 7-day ) and slightly longer short-term ( 14-day ) trends indicate bullish momentum. The "Strong" reading on the 7-day  chart suggests significant buying pressure in the very recent period, which aligns with the broader "Bullish" sentiment over the past two weeks. This suggests a reinforcing upward trend across these shorter timeframes. Potential Trading Approach for Bidvest: Given these readings, a trader might approach Bidvest with the following considerations: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days):  The model notes, "In or Commencing Upward Trend However Strongly Consider The Potential Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs Which Will Create A Tactical Short-Sell Opportunity." Approach: Acknowledge the ongoing upward trend. Be mindful of potential short-term pullbacks if the price fails to sustain above prior session highs, which could present tactical short opportunities. Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks):  The model indicates "Attempting A Bullish Reversal Following A Consolidation Phase." Approach: The medium-term view suggests that the current upward movement is likely a bullish reversal following a period of consolidation. This reinforces the bullish sentiment seen in the 7  and 14-day  trends and suggests potential for continued upward movement. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks):  The model states, "Recently Advanced From A Sideways Consolidation. If It Doesn't Hold Prior Session Highs Then Consider Potential For Retracement To Retest The Range Breakout." Approach: The long-term perspective indicates a breakout from a sideways consolidation. While the immediate trend is upward, failure to hold prior session highs could lead to a retracement back to test the breakout level. This suggests being bullish but also aware of potential pullbacks in the longer term. Overall Trading Considerations for Bidvest: Reinforcing bullish momentum: The "Strong" 7-day  trend aligning with the "Bullish" 14-day  trend and the "Attempting A Bullish Reversal" in the medium term suggests a generally positive outlook. Short-term caution: Be aware of potential tactical short opportunities if prior session highs are not maintained. Long-term perspective: The breakout from consolidation is bullish, but watch for potential retracements if short-term support levels fail. In summary, for Bidvest, the current view is bullish across the short to medium term, with a long-term outlook that is also bullish following a consolidation breakout, although traders should be aware of potential retracements. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Top 40 Index: Trend Higher But Candle Structure = Indecision

    Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Friday, 23 May) The JSE Top 40 Index is NOT overbought however, it is trading in a range where the following outcomes are probable: (1) a pullback to key moving averages and (2) the start of a short term consolidation/sideways range. Current Price Action Model Reading: Daily Chart: Previous Post: JSE Top 40 Index: 85,000 & Indecision Near Multi-Month Highs In our report on 05 May, we published market breadth data which highlighted the emergence of early weakness and bearish momentum as well as a notable increase in share with overbought conditions. While the index has continued to trade near all-time highs, the candle structure (since Monday 05 May) has reflected indecision between buyers and sellers, with selected parts of the market unwinding from short term overbought conditions. Well done to clients who may have capitalized on the index-level and/or sector-level opportunities. To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Sunday, 06 April) April 2025: Volatility Equals Opportunity Talking Points: Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks What We Know Valuation Volatility Equals Opportunity Where Is The Bottom? / Timing Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks | This note runs the risk of communicating items you may already be familiar with. For example, you will be aware that global financial markets are under pressure. You will be aware that the trade war via tariffs are one of, if not the main driver of the decline in risk assets. You will also be aware that volatility is high and that most risk assets have sold off. The aforementioned, are some of the negative factors that are at play. What We Know | As analysts and traders, we will never have all of the information at hand in order to make a decision. In some cases, we will have 55% of the information while in other case, will have 78% of the information etc. What we do know is that lower prices are presenting us with opportunities to (1) be active and take advantage of volatility and both the buy (long) and sell (short) side and (2) Take advantage of lower prices to build medium to long term portfolios (both U.S and global). What we also recognize is that at an index level, the All Share and Top 40 indices are slightly off their long term highs, but underneath the surface there has been some have been businesses that have seen their share prices decline significantly over several weeks and months. Valuation | In the short term, valuation isn't a very good timing tool however, over the long term, it does add value and can help traders and investors accumulate pieces of businesses that have the ability to 're-rate' over several months and years. While it is a crude way of measuring value, it does help us identify potentially cheap stocks (to buy) or expensive ones (to sell). A quick screen will help to uncover potential opportunities. Take Absa , for example. At Friday's close the share traded on a price-to-earnings ratio of 6x , with a dividend yield of 8% . It also sported a price-to-book value of 0.82 . SA industrial group Bidvest's price-to-book ratio is at 1.98x , which is the lowest since October 2020. Old Mutual trades on 6 times it's trailing earnings, with a dividend yield of 7.6% . Cyclical share Sappi trades on a 4 price-to-earnings ratio and a 7.2% dividend yield . This is a non-comprehensive list and merely just examples of shares leaning toward fundamental value. Volatility Equals Opportunity | The spike in volatility is presenting traders and long term investors with opportunities to smartly allocate capital to take advantage of falling prices . Where is The Bottom? / Timing The Market |  With prices moving at a rapid pace, levels have and are being breached with new support and resistance zone being tested. In some case, support is taken out and reclaimed, creating an opportunity for the fast-fingered trader to generate cash. I'll be the first to admit that I don't know where the exact bottom is, however, I'll be monitoring real-time developments in price action in an attempt to ascertain whether the momentum is slowing down or accelerating as well as what the price action is signaling. Bottom Line | The next few days and weeks may present an opportunity gradually phase in positions i.e. rand or dollar-cost average into a medium to long term portfolio. The current sell-off represents some businesses going 'on sale', with prices that may offer value for a 'limited period only'. Others might have further to fall, which will offer opportunities at a later stage. Note: With prices moving fast, it might be that not all ideas/opportunity will be communicated in written format via the Unum Capital website. To avoid missing opportunities, open an account and connect directly with our traders on the desk. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • +60 Shares Commentary (incl. AVI, Netcare & Sasol)

    Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Wednesday 28 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Long Term (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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