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Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Also a massive rally in the yield from the original model reading which looked for a rebound (04 April) - scroll down to view the original time-stamped model reading. Previous Post (14 May): U.S. 10-Year Bond: Rebound In Yield In Line With Model Reading The rebound in the yield is in line with the price action model reading which was assessed on Friday 04 April at 06h58 (South African Time). See time-stamped reading further below (...'probability of a small rebound'). Now trading at 4.53% from 3.97% at the time. We are also seeing the bull flag (as discussed) come into development. Previous Post (24 April): U.S. 10-Year Yield: Sharp Rise; Now Potential Bull Flag Our last note on Friday 04 April considered the price action model reading where the SHORT TERM stated: " The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a buy/long position " while the LONG TERM stated: " ...there is a probability of a small rebound ". Scroll down to view the time-stamped reading. From below 3.9%, the yield subsequently rose, moving to 4.59% within 5 days! A massive move in the fixed income space! A brief update, on a development I am noticing: The potential development of a bull flag formation . Previous Post (Friday 04 April, 06h54 - South African Time) + Bear Flag Structure Playing Out Edit: During Friday's U.S trading session, the yield traded as low as 3.86% Last week Friday we discussed the bear flag structure which implies the potential for downside continuation. Over the course of the week, the U.S 10-Year Bond Yield has traded from 4.25% to 3.97%. Lower bond yields mean that bond prices have risen. This move is a continuation of our view at the beginning of this year which recognized the overbought conditions in bond yields i.e. looking for a higher bond prices. Well done to clients who may have allocated a portfolio to treasuries and participated in being long bonds! Chart below is 'current' (as of Friday 04 April at 06h50, South African Time) The current price action model reading is as follows: Previous Post (Friday 28 March, 19h28, US Trading Session): Yield Down, Price Up. Well Done Bond Buyers The move lower in bond yields is in line with our previous view (driven by the model/Tactical Trading Guide) that yields had become overbought (above 4.7%) in the short and medium term and that a risk of a bearish reversal was possible. At current levels we are seeing a potential bear flag technical formation support by poor candle structure on the yield. US 10-Year Bond Yield Chart as of Friday 28 March (U.S. Trading Session) Previous Post: U.S. 10-YEAR BOND YIELD Bullish Momentum However, Approaching Short Term Overbought (08 January 2025) Overall Summary The image presents a price action analysis for the US 10-Year Bond Yield, focusing on three timeframes: Short Term (1-10 days), Medium Term (2-4 weeks), and Long Term (5-8 weeks). Key Observations 7-Day Trend: High Bullish Momentum, Approaching Overbought 14-Day Trend: Very Bullish Short Term (1-10 days): Price Action Reading: Very Strong Move, Buyers in Control, but Don't Chase - May Fail to Hold the Highs; If it doesn't hold, the 8-EMA may be a short-sell target. Medium Term (2-4 weeks): Price Action Reading: Aggressive Buying but Do Not Chase - Look for Overshoot or Failure to Hold Prior Session Highs to Short-Sell Back to the 8-EMA. Long Term (5-8 weeks): Price Action Reading: Attempting to Advance Whilst in a Bullish Regime - If it Pulls Back, Use Prior Session Close or 8-EMA as an Accumulation Zone. Interpretation Bullish Momentum: The price of the US 10-Year Bond Yield has been rising strongly in the short term. Caution: The momentum is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a potential reversal. Trading Strategy: Short-term traders: Be cautious of chasing the price higher. Look for signs of weakness (like a failure to hold recent highs) to potentially short-sell. Medium-term traders: Avoid chasing aggressive buying. Look for opportunities to short-sell if the price overshoots or fails to hold prior session highs. Long-term traders: Maintain a bullish bias. If the price pulls back, consider accumulating (buying) near the prior session close or the 8-EMA support level. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Screen as of 13h45 today (Wednesday, 21 May) Sorted by ascending 3-month performance. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za This is an update on the screen published on Friday 04 April where we noted an overwhelming number of shares in oversold territory combined with the potential for 'piercing candle' setups. Of all the shares listed, all have had positive returns with Capitec, Ninety One and Sanlam leading the way higher. Screeners are simple, but powerful and provide insight for clients looking to manage risk and uncover opportunities. Well done to clients who took the opportunity to trade! Previous Post (Friday 04 April): Technical Screen: Oversold + Potential Piercing Candles 16x Shares as of yesterday's close. Watch/adjust in real-time as the price action develops! Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za A break above 4.73 targets 5.15. Previous Post (20 March): Copper: Repeating It's Mid 2000s Cycle? We have a long history discussing Copper, since the lows during Covid at $2.31. This is an update. What we saw then... (the potential for a post 2001 to 2003 cycle run-up). How it's developed thus far... Previous Posts Previous Post: Copper - Your Questions Answered (14 January 2025) Analyst's Price Action Model Here's a summary of the price action model for Copper Futures: Q: What is the overall trend of Copper Futures? A: The overall trend is Bullish. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend is Overbought. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend is Very Bullish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, there is a potential opportunity for a short-term buy/long position. The model suggests looking for a pullback to the 8 or 21 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) as a potential entry point for the next move higher. Q: What is the outlook for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: For the medium term, the advice is to expect a steady upward trend. It's recommended to apply daily/weekly moving averages where applicable. Q: What is the outlook for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: In the long term, the advice is to anticipate a continuation of the bullish regime. If Copper Futures pull back, the model suggests using the prior session close or the 8-EMA as an accumulation zone. It's recommended to apply weekly moving averages and time frames (not daily). In summary: The price action model for Copper Futures indicates a bullish overall trend with a short-term overbought condition. Traders are advised to look for potential pullbacks to enter long positions. The medium-term outlook is for a steady upward trend, while the long-term expectation is for a continuation of the bullish regime. Copper Futures Daily Chart Previous Post: This Is How I'm Looking At Copper + Updated Target Thursday, 03 October 2024 Time Published: 19h26 Great comeback on the back of the Chinese stimulus announcement, with the continued development of a +3 year base. Measured move target (medium/long term) = $6.60 Previous Post: Tuesday, 24 September at 11H16 The People's Bank of China (PBoC) introduced several measures to boost the economy amid concerns that the official growth target of around 5% might be out of reach due to recent weak data. Governor Pan Gongsheng said in a media briefing today that the central bank will cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50bps, which will inject CNY 1 trillion into the financial system, with the possibility of another reduction of 0.25 to 0.5 ppts later this year. In addition, the PBoC will lower the seven-day reverse repo rate by 20bps to 1.5%, aiming to reduce short-term borrowing costs for banks. This move is accompanied by a 30bps reduction in borrowing costs of the medium-term lending facility. Mortgage rates will also be trimmed, with an expected average drop of 50bps, and the minimum down payment for second homes will be cut to 15% from 25%. Pan did not specify when the moves will take effect. Tuesday's action came after the US Fed started its monetary easing cycle with a large rate cut - Source: TradingEconomics Previous Post (26 August 2024) US Trading Session (Mon, 26-Aug-2024), Time: 19h00 (S/Africa) Was $3.95 vs a multi-week high of $4.23 today. Previous Post (07 August 2024) Real-Time: 14h36 Trading at it's previous breakout level. Previous Post: UPDATE: Copper has retraced from it's short and medium term overbought levels, having traded above $5.00. This follows an impressive run, one that we discussed on 16 November 2023. The automated model gave us a reading on 15 May, warning of an unappealing reward-to-risk on the upside i.e. expect a pullback. At current levels, the commodity trades in a high bearish momentum regime, approaching short term oversold levels. In addition, it is trading at or around the rising 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), a level at which bulls could re-emerge. The short term trend remains down, however active traders would want to monitor for early signs of price stabilization which could signal the start of a base and potentially a bullish reversal. Downside risk, as highlighted on 15 May: Upside Opportunity on 16 November 2023: I've been a copper bull since May 2020. This was the setup, as I highlighted and discussed at the time. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za A break above $42.50 targets $47.00 and $50.00 Stop-loss $37.60 Previous Post (17 April): Offshore: Wheaton Precious Metals - Target Exceeded The surge in precious metals has supported our trade idea on Wheaton Precious Metals which is higher by 40% over the 7 months . To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Trade Alert: Wheaton Precious Metals - Friday, 13 September 2024 Offshore Ticker: WPM Pre-Market: U.S Trading Session S/African Time: 15h09 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Data to empower and inform Data to help manage risk and uncover opportunity Northam Platinum is a great example of how the Tactical Trading Guide informs traders about the best probability, going forward. Time-stamped as always.... Not a client as yet? Get in touch today by emailing tradingdesk@unum.co.za Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 25 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 16 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Long Term (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Let's analyze the market breadth data over the last three weeks. In summary, the market breadth readings moved from a state leaning towards potential near-term selling opportunities at the end of 02 May, to a more neutral stance with some individual near-term buying opportunities emerging by 09 May, and then towards a slightly weaker overall picture by 16 May without a strong indication of a broad near-term buying opportunity. End of Day: Friday 02 May 2025 The readings for this period show a notable presence in the higher momentum categories. There are 9 constituents in 'Overbought' and 23 in 'High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought'. This suggests a significant portion of the JSE Mid & Large Caps were experiencing strong upward momentum. The 'Strong' category also had a substantial count of 14. The 'Neutral' category held 16 constituents, while 'Weak' had 11. There were no constituents in the 'High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold' or 'Oversold' categories. Overall, this distribution leans towards potentially stretched conditions, hinting at a possible near-term selling opportunity for some constituents. End of Day: Friday 09 May 2025 Moving to the readings from the following week, we observe a shift. The 'Overbought' category decreased significantly to 1, and 'High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought' also saw a decrease to 6. The 'Strong' category became the most populated with 45 constituents, indicating a broader base of positive momentum, albeit less extreme than the previous week. The 'Neutral' category remained significant at 39. The 'Weak' category increased to 8, and we see the emergence of constituents in the lower momentum categories, with 1 in 'High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold' and 1 in 'Oversold'. This distribution suggests a cooling of the previously strong upward momentum, with a larger number of constituents in neutral territory. The appearance of oversold readings for a few constituents might suggest near-term buying opportunities for those specific stocks. End of Day: Friday 16 May 2025 The most recent readings show further changes. The 'Overbought' category increased slightly to 3, while 'High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought' decreased to 13. The 'Strong' category decreased to 37, and the 'Neutral' category saw a slight decrease to 33. The 'Weak' category increased to 16, and we still see no constituents in 'High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold', but there are no constituents in 'Oversold' either. This distribution indicates a further moderation from the high bullish momentum observed at the beginning of the period, with a larger number of constituents now in the 'Weak' category compared to the previous week. The absence of a significant number of readings closer to oversold does not strongly suggest a broad near-term buying opportunity at this point. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Summary Ranking of Sectors (Preference based on weighted timeframes): Considering the short term carries the most weight, followed by medium, then long term, here's a preference ranking: Luxury Goods VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought, Medium Term: Strong) Insurers VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought, Medium Term: Neutral) Technology VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: Strong, Medium Term: Strong) Banks VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: Strong, Medium Term: Strong) Consumer Disc. VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: Strong, Medium Term: Strong) Telecoms VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: Neutral, Medium Term: Neutral, Long Term: Strong) Gold Miners VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: Weak, Medium Term: Neutral, Long Term: Strong) Chemicals VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: Neutral, Medium Term: Weak, Long Term: Oversold) Coal Miners VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: Weak, Medium Term: Oversold, Long Term: High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold) Miners VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: Weak, Medium Term: High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold, Long Term: Oversold) Paper & Pulp VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: Neutral, Medium Term: Weak, Long Term: High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold) Consumer Staples VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: Neutral, Medium Term: Neutral, Long Term: Neutral) Hospitals VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: Neutral, Medium Term: Neutral, Long Term: Neutral) Healthcare VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: Neutral, Medium Term: Weak, Long Term: Weak) Platinum Miners VS TOP 40:  (Short Term: Weak, Medium Term: Weak, Long Term: Weak) This ranking prioritizes sectors with strong short-term indicators, followed by medium-term strength, and then considers the long-term perspective. Technology VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Strong Medium Term:  Strong Long Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Overall:  Suggests continued strength, potentially nearing a point of decreased upward momentum in the long term. Miners VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Weak Medium Term:  High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold Long Term:  Oversold Overall:  Indicates significant weakness in the medium term, although the long term suggests potential for a recovery. The short-term weakness adds to the negative outlook. Banks VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Strong Medium Term:  Strong Long Term:  Strong Overall:  Demonstrates consistent strength across all timeframes. Insurers VS TOP 40 Short Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  Neutral Overall:  Shows strong positive momentum in the short term, with a more neutral outlook for the medium and long term. Gold Miners VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Weak Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  Strong Overall:  The short-term weakness and neutral medium-term performance contrast with long-term strength, creating a mixed outlook. Platinum Miners VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Weak Medium Term:  Weak Long Term:  Weak Overall:  Suggests consistent underperformance across all timeframes. Consumer Staples VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  Neutral Overall:  Indicates performance generally in line with the broader market across all time horizons. Consumer Disc. VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Strong Medium Term:  Strong Long Term:  Neutral Overall:  Shows strength in the short and medium term, with a more neutral long-term perspective. Healthcare VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Weak Long Term:  Weak Overall:  Suggests underperformance in the medium and long term, with a neutral short-term outlook. Hospitals VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  Neutral Overall:  Indicates performance generally in line with the broader market across all time horizons. Coal Miners VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Weak Medium Term:  Oversold Long Term:  High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold Overall:  Points to significant weakness, particularly in the long and medium term, although the medium term being 'Oversold' suggests a potential for a short-term bounce. Telecoms VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Neutral Long Term:  Strong Overall:  The short and medium terms are neutral, contrasting with long-term strength. Paper & Pulp VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Weak Long Term:  High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold Overall:  Suggests weakness, particularly in the long and medium term. Chemicals VS TOP 40 Short Term:  Neutral Medium Term:  Weak Long Term:  Oversold Overall:  Indicates weakness in the medium term, while the long term being 'Oversold' suggests potential for a recovery. The short term is neutral. Luxury Goods VS TOP 40 Short Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Medium Term:  Strong Long Term:  Neutral Overall:  Shows strong positive momentum in the short term and strength in the medium term, with a neutral long-term outlook. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za SHORT TERM: Daily Time Frame (as of the close of trade on Friday, 16 May). MEDIUM TERM: Weekly Time Frame (as of the close of trade on Friday, 16 May). Previous Post (09 April): Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.

Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Thursday 15 May): Trading Spot Gold: Lower by $300 + In Line With Model Reading. Gold reached the sell re-entry range, followed by a sharp rejection which has led to a $300 decline. The setup below was featured in our recent report, published on Sunday (04 May). The move lower is also in line with our note on 15 April which alerted traders to 'Sellers Becoming Active'. Original Note at the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/sptgold Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Current Price Action Model Reading: Current Daily Chart Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital