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  • Trading Nvidia: Short Term Overbought + Current Model Reading

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Current Price Action Model Reading: Current Daily Chart: Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Prosus: Retracing From Overbought; Unfilled Gaps R897 / R865

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (14 May): Prosus: Running +34% However, Now In An Overbought Range The share traded right in the middle of the R720 to R730 range with a print of R725 before rebounding to a high of R974 as of today, Wednesday 14 May. The price action model reading as of today's close is as follows: Previous Post (Saturday, 05 April, 07h43) Actionable Area: Prosus N.V Prosus N.V (PRX).  The share has retreated from the upper boundary of it's rising channel, encountering distribution over the last 4 weeks. The 75-day EMA and 21-week EMA continue to trend up, however, the deteriorating candle structure does not rule out a move toward the lower boundary of the channel, which is in line with the rising 200-day SMA as well as the 50-week EMA. This comes in at approximately 72000c to 73000c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Last Close: 81094c   Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Naspers: Retracing In Line With Model Reading

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Please see the original model reading further down (14 May). Previous Post (14 May): Short Term Traders, Caution On Naspers __________________________________________________________________________________ On 14 January, we published a note, highlighting Naspers oversold condition relative to the JSE Top 40 Index. After a 40% rally, the reward-to-risk is LESS favourable versus the Q1 lows. Yesterday's pre-market price action model reading (Tactical Trading Guide) for Naspers stated the following for the 3x time frames: SHORT TERM (approximately 1 to 10 days): " Do not enter a buy/long here (at current levels). The reward-to-risk is unattractive " MEDIUM TERM (approximately 2 to 4 weeks): " The general trend is up, however, look for failure to hold the prior session range highs to initiate a ~1 to 2 day short/sell setup . LONG TERM (approximately 5 to 8 weeks): " Has resumed a bull move in a strong upward trend ." Yesterday's Tactical Trading Guide can be found here: https://www.unum.capital/post/pacmntry The slide below is from last week's report, discussed Naspers: Previous Post (14 January): Relative The Top 40, Naspers Is Trading In A Short Term Oversold Range The lower panel on the chart tells a story... NPN Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of Monday 15h08 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading OUTsurance: Short Sellers Generating Cash

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The move lower is in line with the price action model reading on all 3 time frames (as published on 30 April): S/Term: "Would not enter a buy/long at current levels. The reward-to-risk is unattractive". M/Term: "...Expect a consolidation or a minor retracement". L/Term: "Strong upside move but momentum slowing with sellers becoming active". Previous Post (30 April) Previous Post (30 April) Trading OUTsurance All-Time High But A Poor Buy/Long Reward-To-Risk (Model: "...Sellers Emerging") Previous Post: Trading OUTsurance: New Highs + Support From Model Reading The motivation behind the Tactical Trading Guide ( price action model ) was to systematically uncover opportunities and assess reward-to-risk, saving time in the process! In essence, the model is the analyst's thought process, on paper. Here, clients have access to a process that has help to guide traders in order to generate cash and which has helped to manage risk. OUTsurance is one of those names where the model stated: (1) Short term (1 to 10 days): "The share has been sold aggressively. Look for a continued dip/decline before a minor rebound" and (2) Medium term (2 to 4 weeks): "Broadly, the share is trading in a weak to sideways consolidation. Expect a small rebound." Scroll down to view the reading for the close of business on Friday 04 April. On Monday 07 April, traders had the opportunity to accumulate, which was followed by a 13% rally (new highs seen today, Wednesday 23 April). The share was featured in our research as a buy idea on Monday 02 September at 4780c. Today (Wednesday, 23 April), the share reached an all-time high of 7290c. The original slide, seen by clients, is shown below: Previous Post (Saturday, 05 April): Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 04 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Friday 28 March 2025)

  • Managing Risk & Uncovering Opportunity: British American Tobacco

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The motivation behind the Tactical Trading Guide ( price action model ) was to systematically uncover opportunities and assess reward-to-risk, saving time in the process! As the saying goes: "Necessity is the mother of invention". In essence, the model is the analyst's thought process, on paper. Here, clients have access  to a process that has help to guide traders in order to generate cash and which has helped to manage risk. Note: All Readings Are Time-Stamped BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO is one of those names where the model helped clients manage risk and uncover opportunity: Manage Risk: "Strong upside move but momentum slowing with sellers becoming active". The subsequent move was a multi-day share price decline: Uncover Opportunity: "...expect a small rebound". The subsequent move was a two-day rebound: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Top 40 Index: 85,000 & Indecision Near Multi-Month Highs

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za In our report on 05 May, we published market breadth data which highlighted the emergence of early weakness and bearish momentum as well as a notable increase in share with overbought conditions. While the index has continued to trade near all-time highs, the candle structure (since Monday 05 May) has reflected indecision between buyers and sellers, with selected parts of the market unwinding from short term overbought conditions. Well done to clients who may have capitalized on the index-level and/or sector-level opportunities. To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Sunday, 06 April) April 2025: Volatility Equals Opportunity Talking Points: Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks What We Know Valuation Volatility Equals Opportunity Where Is The Bottom? / Timing Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks | This note runs the risk of communicating items you may already be familiar with. For example, you will be aware that global financial markets are under pressure. You will be aware that the trade war via tariffs are one of, if not the main driver of the decline in risk assets. You will also be aware that volatility is high and that most risk assets have sold off. The aforementioned, are some of the negative factors that are at play. What We Know | As analysts and traders, we will never have all of the information at hand in order to make a decision. In some cases, we will have 55% of the information while in other case, will have 78% of the information etc. What we do know is that lower prices are presenting us with opportunities to (1) be active and take advantage of volatility and both the buy (long) and sell (short) side and (2) Take advantage of lower prices to build medium to long term portfolios (both U.S and global). What we also recognize is that at an index level, the All Share and Top 40 indices are slightly off their long term highs, but underneath the surface there has been some have been businesses that have seen their share prices decline significantly over several weeks and months. Valuation | In the short term, valuation isn't a very good timing tool however, over the long term, it does add value and can help traders and investors accumulate pieces of businesses that have the ability to 're-rate' over several months and years. While it is a crude way of measuring value, it does help us identify potentially cheap stocks (to buy) or expensive ones (to sell). A quick screen will help to uncover potential opportunities. Take Absa , for example. At Friday's close the share traded on a price-to-earnings ratio of 6x , with a dividend yield of 8% . It also sported a price-to-book value of 0.82 . SA industrial group Bidvest's price-to-book ratio is at 1.98x , which is the lowest since October 2020. Old Mutual trades on 6 times it's trailing earnings, with a dividend yield of 7.6% . Cyclical share Sappi trades on a 4 price-to-earnings ratio and a 7.2% dividend yield . This is a non-comprehensive list and merely just examples of shares leaning toward fundamental value. Volatility Equals Opportunity | The spike in volatility is presenting traders and long term investors with opportunities to smartly allocate capital to take advantage of falling prices . Where is The Bottom? / Timing The Market |  With prices moving at a rapid pace, levels have and are being breached with new support and resistance zone being tested. In some case, support is taken out and reclaimed, creating an opportunity for the fast-fingered trader to generate cash. I'll be the first to admit that I don't know where the exact bottom is, however, I'll be monitoring real-time developments in price action in an attempt to ascertain whether the momentum is slowing down or accelerating as well as what the price action is signaling. Bottom Line | The next few days and weeks may present an opportunity gradually phase in positions i.e. rand or dollar-cost average into a medium to long term portfolio. The current sell-off represents some businesses going 'on sale', with prices that may offer value for a 'limited period only'. Others might have further to fall, which will offer opportunities at a later stage. Note: With prices moving fast, it might be that not all ideas/opportunity will be communicated in written format via the Unum Capital website. To avoid missing opportunities, open an account and connect directly with our traders on the desk. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • +60 Shares Commentary (incl. Foschini, Kumba & Netcare)

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Monday 19 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Long Term (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Ninety One Ltd: Actionable Areas

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za From it's recent low of 2680c (Monday 07 April), the share rallied by 41% to a high of 3804c from which it had started to lose upward momentum in an overbought range. At current levels the share is in a 'strong' regime with the price above the rising 21-day EMA and 75-day EMA. For new longs, at or around the 75-day EMA (approximately 3438c to 3496c) would be provisional next best-probability buy range while a print into 4028/4098c is a provisional next best-probability sell range. INTO the most recent low (Monday 07 April) traders were prepared for opportunity with the long term reading (5 to 8 weeks) stating the following: "The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position" . The time-stamped reading is shown below the chart: Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Global Idea: iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN) is an exchange-traded fund that seeks to track the investment results of a broad-based index composed of Dutch equities. It offers investors targeted access to the Dutch stock market. Here's a summary of key aspects: Objective:  To track the investment results of the MSCI Netherlands IMI 25/50 Index. This index measures the performance of large, mid, and small-capitalization segments of the Dutch equity market. Holdings:  The ETF holds a basket of stocks of companies domiciled in the Netherlands. As of May 2025, top holdings include ASML Holding NV, ING Groep NV, and Prosus NV. The number of holdings is around 53-54. Sector Allocation:  The fund is significantly weighted towards sectors like Technology, Financial Services, and Industrials. Expense Ratio:  The gross expense ratio is 0.50%. Listing:  It is listed on the NYSE Arca. Why EWN?  It provides exposure to a broad range of companies in the Netherlands and can be used to express a single-country investment view. In essence, EWN allows investors to easily invest in a diversified portfolio of Dutch stocks through a single security. Price Action Model Reading: The short term overbought hence potential for a minor pullback. Long term: Positive. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Northam Platinum: Here's What The Data Says

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Short Term (1 to 10 trading days):  Northam Platinum is consolidating within an upward trend. If the 8-EMA has been breached, the 21-EMA is a potential buy range. Medium Term (next 2 to 4 weeks):  Northam Platinum is in or commencing an upward trend. However, strongly consider the potential failure to hold prior session range highs, which will create a tactical short-sell opportunity. Long Term (next 5 to 8 weeks):  Northam Platinum is attempting a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. In the short term, Northam Platinum is consolidating within an upward trend, with the 21-EMA acting as a potential buy range if the 8-EMA has been breached. In the medium term, while in or commencing an upward trend, there's a significant consideration for a potential short-sell opportunity if prior session range highs fail to hold. Looking at the long term, the asset is attempting a bullish reversal after a period of consolidation. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Market Risk Index: How Is Sentiment Evolving?

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Sunday, 18 May): SHORT TERM: Daily Time Frame (as of the close of trade on Friday, 16 May). MEDIUM TERM: Weekly Time Frame (as of the close of trade on Friday, 16 May). Previous Post (09 April): Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.

  • U.S Market Sector Breadth

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Analyst Disclosure: The following text was generated with an A.I tool. This sector breadth graphic displays the percentage of shares within different sectors that are trading above their 20-day moving average (MA) . This is a short-term market breadth indicator used to gauge the short-term momentum and health of each sector. Here's a summary of the data: CND:  100.00% - All shares in this sector are above their 20-day MA, indicating strong short-term bullish momentum. IND:  98.71% - A very high percentage of shares are above their 20-day MA, suggesting strong short-term bullishness. TEC:  98.55% - Similar to IND, this sector shows significant short-term bullish momentum with most shares above their 20-day MA. COM:  95.65% - The vast majority of shares are above their 20-day MA, indicating strong short-term bullish sentiment. FIN:  93.15% - A high percentage of shares are above their 20-day MA, showing good short-term bullishness. MAT:  92.30% - Like FIN, this sector has a strong percentage of shares above their 20-day MA, indicating short-term bullishness. TTL:  83.33% - A significant majority of shares are above their 20-day MA, suggesting short-term bullishness, although slightly less strong than the sectors above. REI:  77.41% - A good percentage of shares are above their 20-day MA, indicating short-term bullishness. ENE:  73.91% - A solid percentage of shares are above their 20-day MA, showing short-term bullishness. HLT:  68.33% - Over half of the shares are above their 20-day MA, indicating a somewhat weaker short-term bullishness compared to the top sectors. CNS:  60.52% - A little over half of the shares are above their 20-day MA, suggesting a less convincing short-term bullishness. UTL:  58.06% - Slightly more than half of the shares in this sector are above their 20-day MA, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish short-term outlook. In general , a high percentage of shares above their 20-day moving average within a sector suggests strong short-term upward momentum for that sector. Readings above 70-80% can indicate overbought conditions in the short term, while readings below 30% can suggest oversold conditions. This graphic indicates that, based on this snapshot, the CND, IND, TEC, COM, FIN, and MAT sectors  are showing the strongest short-term bullish breadth, as a very high percentage of their constituent shares are trading above their 20-day moving average. The UTL and CNS sectors  show the weakest short-term bullish breadth among those listed. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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