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- S&P 500 Index | Overshoots 200-Day; Resistance Range In Focus
Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Tuesday, 06 May - South African Time / 20h56 / U.S Trading Session): S&P 500 Index | Extreme Conditions Unwind; Faces 200-Day Test Does the index offer an appealing buy/long reward-to-risk at or around current levels? No. Can it trade higher? Yes, that's possible. Should we be surprised if it pulls back? No On 09 April, we highlighted the extreme reading on the 'Market Risk Index', with the indicator trading in 'extreme fear' territory i.e. opportunity. From the lows on 09 April, the S&P 500 index has rallied from ~4950 to a high of 5703 on Friday 02 May. In focus is the 200-day simple moving average which currently lacks directional bias and is a likely headwind if the index trades higher from current levels . There is always a possibility that the index reclaims the 200-day, trades above it, then fails to hold the level. Bear in mind, the index has advanced from deeply oversold on 09 April to high bullish momentum/approaching overbought on Friday 02 May. Previous Post (09 April at 10h16 South African Time) Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.
- DAX Index: Short Term Overbought With Sellers Becoming Active
Trade DAX INDEX with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za See Price Action Model reading below: Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- JSE Top 40 Index: +20% Rally = Cash Flow For Active Traders
Trade the Top 40 Index with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Strong rebound of the lower boundary of the channel. In line with the OVERSOLD reading and In line with the Next-Best Probability Action The move higher also aligns with the price action model reading which alerted traders to 'look for support the prior swing lows to capture minor rebounds'. This minor rebound turned into a MAJOR REBOUND! Now trading higher more than 21% from the lows on Monday 07 April. Previous Post (Saturday, 05 April): JSE Top 40 Index: Weekly Chart Analysis JSE Top 40 Index Analysis: Short Term (1 to 10 days): The short-term reading is Oversold . This suggests that the index has likely experienced a significant decline and may be due for a rebound or consolidation. However, being oversold alone doesn't guarantee an immediate reversal. Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks): The medium-term reading is Weak . This implies that the index has been trending downwards over the past few weeks, indicating underlying selling pressure. Long Term (5 to 8 weeks): The long-term reading is Neutral . This suggests that over a broader timeframe, the index hasn't established a clear upward or downward trend. Overall Assessment: Taking into account the weighted importance (short-term being the most significant), the JSE Top 40 Index exhibits deteriorating price action. While the oversold reading in the short term might offer a temporary bounce, the weakness in the medium term, coupled with the lack of a strong long-term trend, suggests caution. The recent price action is more aligned with the medium-term weakness than the potential for a short-term recovery. JSE TOP 40 WEEKLY CHART Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- U.S. Dollar Index: Rebounding In Line With Model Reading
Trade the US Dollar & other currencies with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za The US Dollar Index (now 99.47) has unwound sharply from overbought levels, as highlighted to clients on 03 January. Below is the daily chart as well as the current model reading. Daily Chart Previous Post (03 January): U.S. DOLLAR INDEX Short Term Overbought Overall Trend: 7-Day Trend: Strong 14-Day Trend: Very Bullish Short-Term Price Action Reading (1 to 10 Trading Days): Do Not Enter Long Here: The risk-reward is considered unattractive at this point. Medium-Term Price Action Reading (2 to 4 Weeks): Aggressive Buying but Overbought: The index is showing aggressive buying, but it is also overbought. Expect Consolidation or Minor Retracement: Due to the overbought condition, a period of consolidation or a minor retracement is anticipated. Long-Term Price Action Reading (5 to 8 Weeks): Aggressive Buying, But Do Not Chase: The trend remains bullish, but it's advised not to chase the price. Look for Overshoot or Failure to Hold Prior Session Range Highs to Short-Sell Back to the 8-EMA: To identify potential short-selling opportunities, traders should look for instances where the price overshoots or fails to hold the previous session's range highs. Key Takeaways: The U.S. Dollar Index is currently in a strong bullish trend, both in the short and medium term. However, the overbought condition suggests a potential consolidation or minor retracement in the near future. Traders are advised to exercise caution and avoid chasing the price at this time. Short-selling opportunities may arise if the price overshoots or fails to hold previous session highs. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Note Added on 03 January 2025 at 12h20
- Prosus: Generating Cash With A R209 (+28%) Rebound
Trade Prosus with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share traded right in the middle of the R720 to R730 range with a print of R725 before rebounding to a high of R934 as of today, Monday 12 May. Previous Post (Saturday, 05 April, 07h43) Actionable Area: Prosus N.V Prosus N.V (PRX). The share has retreated from the upper boundary of it's rising channel, encountering distribution over the last 4 weeks. The 75-day EMA and 21-week EMA continue to trend up, however, the deteriorating candle structure does not rule out a move toward the lower boundary of the channel, which is in line with the rising 200-day SMA as well as the 50-week EMA. This comes in at approximately 72000c to 73000c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Last Close: 81094c Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Generating Cash: AngloGold Ashanti / Gold Fields / Harmony Gold
As of 11h00 this morning, we are seeing these shares lower by between 12% and 23% (see the updated slide below) This premium note was published on 22 April at 10h55, with the shares having since backed off sharply from the resistance range. To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za {Exclusive Content / Premium Post} 3 Shares: Deteriorating Candle Structure / Upward Momentum Slowing Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Preferred Strategies & Setups To Generate Cash Flow (Click To Enlarge) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Full Report: The Sum of the Charts, 12 - 16 May 2025
A comprehensive, 54-page report, highlighting key developments across local (+ global) markets. DID YOU KNOW? Year-to-date, we have published over 850 research notes. If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk, why not consider making us your trading services provider? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published Sunday, 11 May 2025. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- +60 Shares Commentary (incl. African Rainbow Minerals, Ninety One & Sibanye Stillwater)
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 09 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Upcoming Research: Monday, 12 May 2025
The next report will be published on Monday 12 May 2025 Status: Market research and analysis is in progress and is simultaneously being compiled for publication. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- 📌Research: 05 - 09 May 2025
DID YOU KNOW? Year-to-date, we have published over 850 research notes. If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk, why not consider making us your trading services provider? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Trading Spot Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/xaugen +60 Shares Commentary (incl. Impala, Investec & Shoprite) https://www.unum.capital/post/priactcmtry Trading EUR/USD https://www.unum.capital/post/eurunw Trading Tiger Brands https://www.unum.capital/post/tbs300 Trading Bid Corp https://www.unum.capital/post/bidrall +60 Shares: Price Action Commentary (Short & M/Term) https://www.unum.capital/post/priacmntry Trading Anheuser-Busch Inbev https://www.unum.capital/post/buschinbev Trading Sibanye: Generating Cash For S/T Traders https://www.unum.capital/post/sibstill S&P 500 Index: Extreme Conditions Unwind https://www.unum.capital/post/spfive Russell 3000: Strong Rebound +14% https://www.unum.capital/post/r3kupdate +60 Shares: Price Action Commentary (Short & Medium Term) https://www.unum.capital/post/prcmmtry Trading Harmony Gold: Short Term Cash Flow https://www.unum.capital/post/harmygld Trading USD/ZAR https://www.unum.capital/post/zarprob Market Risk Index: Current Sentiment Reading https://www.unum.capital/post/riskindx Trading Foschini: Best Prob Levels + Current Model Reading https://www.unum.capital/post/trfoschini Sector of the Week: Insurers https://www.unum.capital/post/sotwinsure +60 Shares: Price Action Commentary (Short & Medium Term) https://www.unum.capital/post/pracmnts JSE Top 40 Index: Short Term Cycle https://www.unum.capital/post/fortystcyc JSE Relative Sector Analysis https://www.unum.capital/post/jsersan Trading Naspers https://www.unum.capital/post/npnnow ZAR Advancing In Line With Model Reading https://www.unum.capital/post/zaradvnce Trading Spot Silver: Analysis of Price Action https://www.unum.capital/post/spotsilv Breadth: Interpretation of Market Conditions https://www.unum.capital/post/breadthinterpret +60 Shares: Price Action Commentary (Short & Medium Term) https://www.unum.capital/post/pacmntry FULL REPORT (PDF): The Sum of the Charts > https://www.unum.capital/post/sotc0505 Market Risk Index: Daily | Weekly | Monthly S&P 500 Index S&P 500 Index: Regime Trend {Last 15 Sessions} JSE Top 40 Index: Short Term Cycle JSE Market Breadth JSE Relative Sector Analysis Brent Crude Oil Rand-Oil Price JSE Technical Summary FX: USD/ZAR Actionable Areas: Absa Actionable Areas: Foschini/TFG Actionable Areas: Bidvest Actionable Areas: Woolworths Actionable Areas: Harmony Gold Actionable Areas: Redefine Properties Actionable Areas: Sanlam Actionable Areas: British American Tobacco JSE Gold Miners vs Top 40 Index Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Recent Opportunity: Bidvest Selected JSE Shares: Momentum Regime Data Selected Currencies: Momentum Regime Data Selected Commodities: Momentum Regime Data Sector Price Action Model Readings: Insurers Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital Archive / Year-To Date Research Links: 28 April to 02 May https://www.unum.capital/post/research-28-april-02-may-2025 21 April to 25 April https://www.unum.capital/post/212504 14 April to 18 April https://www.unum.capital/post/research-14-18-april-2025 7 April to 11 April https://www.unum.capital/post/research-07-11-april-2025 31 March to 04 April https://www.unum.capital/post/research-31-march-04-april-2025 24 March to 28 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-24-28-march-2025 17 March to 21 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-17-21-march-2025 10 March to 14 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-10-14-march-2025 02 January to 07 March https://www.unum.capital/post/latest-research-january-2025
- +60 Shares Commentary (incl. Impala Platinum, Investec & Shoprite)
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Thursday 08 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Spot Gold: Generating Cash Flow
Trade Commodities with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za The setup below was featured in our recent report, published on Sunday (04 May). Full Report: The Sum of the Charts, 05 - 09 May 2025 DID YOU KNOW? Year-to-date, we have published over 850 research notes. If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk, why not consider making us your trading services provider? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published Sunday, 04 May 2025. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital











