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Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The Market Risk Index has been instrumental in helping clients recognize risk and uncover opportunity! At 10h16 today we pointed out that the weekly reading was worth noting (sitting in extreme fear i.e. a long opportunity). We are around 35-minutes to the close of the U.S. Trading Session and over the past 10 to 11 hours, the Nasdaq has rallied by 10%!!! Our research is your opportunity!!! Nasdaq 15-Minutes Chart as of 21h12 (South African Time / U.S. Trading Session) US markets After tonight's close: Previous Post (Wednesday 09 April at 10h16 South African Time) Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.

Trade   Commodities   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za As per our comment yesterday evening, just after the U.S market close: "Note that although the weekly structure is bearish, the short term sees the commodity trading in an oversold range which means that a rebound at or around current levels is possible. The current price action model reading is shown below" Brent Crude Oil Chart as of Wednesday 09 April at 20h54 (South African Time, U.S. Trading Session) Previous Post (Tuesday 08 April at 10h27, S/African Time / U.S Trading Session) Brent Crude Oil Weekly Structure A prolonged period of consolidation has been in play however, we are now seeing the bearish structure unfold as was discussed on 07 August. The updated chart, reflecting the breakdown, is as follows: Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart as of Tuesday 08 April at 21h51 (S. African Time / U.S. Trading Session) Note that although the weekly structure is bearish, the short term sees the commodity trading in an oversold range which means that a rebound at or around current levels is possible. The current price action model reading is shown below: ZOOMING OUT: Brent Crude Oil - Wednesday, 07 August 2024 REAL-TIME: 21h39 / U.S. TRADING SESSION The technical vulnerability is recognized in this flash view of the commodity's weekly chart. Here, a 'topping structure' similar to that seen in the period December 2018 to January 2020. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Local & Global Markets   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Technical Backdrop: (1) Bearish trend with strong selling pressure (2)Trading below it's 200-day SMA (3) Has, in recent days, traded 20% off it's all-time highs. (4) Poor candle structure, but with some buying interest as denoted by the long lower tails . (5) Approaching the 200-week SMA for the first time since October 2022. The 200-week SMA is likely to be a key level of interest for long term buyers. Note that the 200-week SMA is also in line with the previous breakout level seen in December 2023. Upon a rally, the best probability resistance range is 5285 to 5385 (subject to change). S&P 500 Daily Chart as of Wednesday 09 April at 16h07 (South African Time / U.S. Trading Session) Previous Post (Sunday 06 April): Helping Clients Manage Risk On Monday 05 December, our clients were alerted to the risk of a medium term pullback in the S&P 500 Index. Over $5 trillion of market value has since been lost. To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za    Updated Chart as of Monday 07 April at 08h54 Previous Post Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 21h49) S&P 500: Risk of a Medium Term Retracement. Link to original note: https://www.unum.capital/post/s-p-500-index-retracement-risk Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Naspers   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za NEXT 'BEST RPOBABILITY' SELL RANGE: Confluence of 8, 21, and 50-day EMA range [453000c to 464800c] NEXT 'BEST RPOBABILITY' BUY RANGE: Overshoot of the medium term horizon support + swing lows [332200c to 346300c] Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   FX/Currencies   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za A re-test of the 200-week (below 137. 00) is not out of the question. This chart is significant in terms of both US Tech as well as the broader global market risk outlook. Previous Post: U.S Dollar/ Japanese Yen: Now Trading Above 154. Benefiting From U.S Optimism Wednesday 13 November 2024 (Time: 07h37) Sharp bullish reversal from previous 'strategy alert' at 140. A massive gain for traders who took the opportunity to position themselves for an upside move. Clients have benefitted from views on both the buy/long at the above-mentioned 140 level as well as the short/sell side at/around 160 which subsequently saw a massive bearish reversal down to 160. Previous Post: Tuesday 22 October 2024 Time Published: 14h32 Significant upside follow-through from the strategy alert at 140. Now trading +150. Thursday, 03 October 2024 Time Published: 23h29 Strong rebound off 140, now trading 146. A double opportunity (short, then long) for Unum Capital clients Previous Post: 16 September 2024 Real-Time: 21h50 S/African Time / US Trading Session Currency Pair: US Dollar / Japanese Yen Previous Post (Wednesday, 11 September) Real-Time: 08h22 Ticker: USD/JPY A significant win for clients who took the opportunity to trade The unwind/pullback, driven in large part by the Bank of Japan, has been a significant factor in the underperformance of growth/technology stocks. The reading from the Tactical Trading Guide has been in line, with the pair pulling back from 160 to today's low of 140. In FX terms, this is a MASSIVE MOVE. Previous Post (26 June) Readings For The US Dollar / Japanese Yen FX Pair Signal An Overextension And Potential Pullback Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Local & Global Markets   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.

Trade   Commodities   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za A prolonged period of consolidation has been in play however, we are now seeing the bearish structure unfold as was discussed on 07 August. The updated chart, reflecting the breakdown, is as follows: Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart as of Tuesday 08 April at 21h51 (S. African Time / U.S. Trading Session) Note that although the weekly structure is bearish, the short term sees the commodity trading in an oversold range which means that a rebound at or around current levels is possible. The current price action model reading is shown below: ZOOMING OUT: Brent Crude Oil - Wednesday, 07 August 2024 REAL-TIME: 21h39 / U.S. TRADING SESSION The technical vulnerability is recognized in this flash view of the commodity's weekly chart. Here, a 'topping structure' similar to that seen in the period December 2018 to January 2020. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Commodities   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za A prolonged period of consolidation has been in play however, we are now seeing the bearish structure unfold as was discussed on 07 August. Link To Original Post: https://www.unum.capital/post/zooming-out-brent-crude-oil-wednesday-07-august-2024 The updated chart, reflecting the breakdown, is as follows: Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart as of Tuesday 08 April at 21h51 (S. African Time / U.S. Trading Session) ZOOMING OUT: Brent Crude Oil - Wednesday, 07 August 2024 REAL-TIME: 21h39 / U.S. TRADING SESSION The technical vulnerability is recognized in this flash view of the commodity's weekly chart. Here, a 'topping structure' similar to that seen in the period December 2018 to January 2020. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Richemont   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Update: On 27 March we discussed the potential for a gap fill which coincided with the 200-day SMA. On Friday, the share traded into this range followed by an overshoot on Monday (with a recovery) as well as further gains today (Tuesday). CFR Daily Chart as of Tuesday 08 April at 20h39 Richemont Risk (05 February) Previous Post: (27 March): Trading Richemont. Potential Gap Fill + Re-Test of Breakout Level Into and at the recent highs, the price action model alerted traders to overbought conditions with the subsequent unwind and lower levels. The candle structure continues to reflect short term distribution. Note: An unfilled gap at R2927 has the potential to be filled with is in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement range. Provisional next best actionable area: 21-WEEK EMA [R2934 - R3019] Previous Post (07 March): Getting (or Staying) Rich With Richemont On Wednesday 03 February we discussed Richemont, highlighting the price action model's unfavorable reward-to-risk on the buy/long side. Bear in mind, this has been a massive winner since our note on 26 November, alerting traders to monitor for a change of trend to go from neutral to bullish. To recap the 2 to 4 week reading ('do not enter a buy/long at current levels. the reward-to-risk is unattractive') while the 5 to 8 week reading stated ('aggressive buying is underway however the share is overbought on the lower time frame. expect a consolidation or a minor retracement'). At the recent peak (03 March), the price action model was prescient in identifying the overbought conditions and potential for a pullback. Over the last two sessions, the share has been under significant selling pressure. Well done to traders who may have capitalized on both the long and (then) short side. Previous Post (Wednesday 05 February) Trading Richemont: Model Reading Points To Unfavorable Reward-To-Risk CFR Daily Chart as of Wednesday 05 February at 08h52 Previous Post: Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index, The Share Is Approaching Overbought The chart below highlights the relative/ratio charts price distance versus it's medium term 75-day EMA. Previous Post: Richemont: Sharp Bullish Reversal, In Line With Trading Comment & Model Reading The comment below is an extract from our note on Richemont, dated 26 November 2024. "While it the trend is down and the fundamental outlook is bearish, it may be worthwhile to keep an open mind for a potential change of trend following this multi-month consolidation" - Lester Davids, 26-Nov-2024. The chart below highlights the share price development since: CFR chart as of Thursday 16 January at 09h16 You may also recall the end of day model reading (26-Nov) stating the following: "Attempting a rebound following a downward trend. The share may consolidate further before continuing, higher" . The share has since risen by 34%. Previous Post: Tuesday 26 November 2024 (Time Published: 06h09) The current price trend (down) reflects the automatic price action reading which clearly states the share is weak (ST & MT) while the 8-week and 21-week EMA may act as resistance ranges on any short term rally. The fundamental impact on price is known, with the impact of the Chinese slowdown having filtered through to almost all global luxury peers, resulting in muted growth prospects which has caused market participants to sell down the shares. The share was previous a short/sell idea on 07 June when it traded into extreme short term overbought territory at a high of R3194 before retreating by 27% to it's recent low of R2309. While it the trend is fundamental outlook is bearish and the price is trending down, it may be worthwhile to keep an open mind for a potential change of trend following this multi-month consolidation . What do we need to see? Strong price action with volume would be an early indicator that the market's sentiment toward the share is starting to change + clear/reclaiming the downward trend line in place since the recent peak of 07 June 2024. View as of Thursday 21 November at 10h52. Previous Post: Richemont Is Retreating In Line With Model Reading - Wednesday, 18 September 2024 Real-Time: 10h45 Ticker: CFR Currently lower by R415 or 15.4% Potential target is the unfilled gap at ~R2380 Previous Post (22 August 2024) • REAL-TIME: 15h30 ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade the Top 40 Index with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Tuesday (08 April) saw further upside follow-though, with the index extending Monday's gains while the oversold conditions as of Friday's close continued to unwind. We also saw the index rebound sharply off the channel support, as highlighted in the previous note (scroll down to view). As per Saturday's note, our nearest, next-best probability price action as per the price action model was to buy on a pullback. The index now trades 8% above the channel support and is 6000 points higher than the low seen on Monday. It should also be noted that the index is move in line with the oversold reading as per the price action model as well as strategy alerting traders to look for support at the prior swing lows. JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of Tuesday 08 April at 18h20 Top 40: Zooming In.... Previous Post (Saturday 05 April at 14h37) : JSE Top 40 Index: Weekly Chart Analysis JSE Top 40 Index Analysis: Short Term (1 to 10 days):   The short-term reading is Oversold . This suggests that the index has likely experienced a significant decline and may be due for a rebound or consolidation. However, being oversold alone doesn't guarantee an immediate reversal. Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks):  The medium-term reading is Weak . This implies that the index has been trending downwards over the past few weeks, indicating underlying selling pressure . Long Term (5 to 8 weeks):  The long-term reading is Neutral . This suggests that over a broader timeframe, the index hasn't established a clear upward or downward trend. Overall Assessment: Taking into account the weighted importance (short-term being the most significant), the JSE Top 40 Index exhibits deteriorating  price action. While the oversold reading in the short term might offer a temporary bounce, the weakness in the medium term, coupled with the lack of a strong long-term trend, suggests caution. The recent price action is more aligned with the medium-term weakness than the potential for a short-term recovery. JSE TOP 40 WEEKLY CHART Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   FirstRand   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Rebounding from the buy range. Scroll down to see the previous post. Previous Post (Saturday, 05 April, 07h38) Actionable Areas: FirstRand Ltd FirstRand (FSR) is down 29% from it's Sept-2024 peak, with the share trading near it's June lows. It's not inconceivable that the share could trade down at the 5800c to 6000c range, which is a medium term support range. At current levels, oversold conditions are already present which reflects aggressive selling pressure however, also raises the probability of an ultra short term rebound. Last close: 6293c FSR Daily Chart as of the close on Friday 04 April Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital