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Trade the Top 40 Index with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za The Top 40 is currently higher by 3649 points from our comment which warned against being aggressively short. Previous Post (Monday 13 January): JSE Top 40 Index: 200-Day Breached, But Caution On Pressing Shorts Too Hard (+ Price Action Model) Historical price action developments/trading setups have shown us that when a price has been in a downward trend, there is always a risk that the downward momentum slows, which can then be followed by the start of a 'base formation' or bullish reversal. Taking an ultra short term view, we are aware that the index has been in a downward trend, with ' high bullish momentum / approaching oversold ' being the current reading. For traders looking to enter short/sell positions, the current level may not be optimal. Why? One scenario is that the price could continue to trade lower in the following session (today, 14 January) which can be followed by a reclaim of the prior day lows and a bullish reversal. I know the popular saying is ' trade what you see ' however my goal as an analyst is to prepare you in order to recognize opportunities and risks, with various price action scenarios to consider . Bottom line: the index can trade lower in the short term, however, be careful to not press you shorts too aggressively around these level. Analyst's Price Action Model as of Monday 13 January at 13h55 Q: What is the overall trend of the JSE TOP 40 Index? A: The overall trend is bearish. This is indicated by the "Aggressive Selling" in both the medium and long-term price action readings. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The 7-day trend is also bearish, with high bearish momentum and an approaching oversold condition. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The 14-day trend is very bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, the reward-to-risk ratio is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position, but this is only for the short-term (1 to 10 trading days). Q: What is a potential scenario for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Aggressive selling is underway therefore, traders should wait for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any action. Q: What is a potential scenario for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Aggressive selling is underway however, traders should look for support at prior swing lows to capture minor rebounds. In summary: The JSE TOP 40 Index is currently in a bearish trend. While there is a short-term opportunity for a small buy/long position, aggressive selling is advised for the medium and long term. Traders should wait for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any action. JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of 13h58 on Monday 12 January 2025 Previous Post (Sunday 12 January 2025): JSE Top 40 Index: Approaching It's 200-Day But Vulnerable To A Breach Update: Breached short term support Rally rejected into the declining 8-day EMA Trading below it's declining 21-day EMA Trading below it's 75-day EMA, which has started to turn lower Trading below it's 21-week EMA, which has started to turn lower Monthly time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Weak Daily time frame = Weak Above a gradually rising 50-week EMA Above a gradually rising 200-SMA SMA Analyst's Price Action Model Regime: Monthly, Weekly & Daily Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of the close on Friday 10 January 2025. Resistance and Support zones are subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Previous Post: Update: Trading in a tight consolidation range Rejected into the declining 21-day EMA Rejected into the declining 75-day EMA Shifting to and consolidating below a flat 21-week EMA Deteriorating candle structure at short term support Above a rising 50-week EMA Above a rising 200-SMA SMA Previous Post: TRADING The JSE Top 40 Index On 27 September 2024, research highlighted the index trading in a short term overbought range, from which we subsequently saw a retracement and unwind from these overbought conditions. Over the 3 months, the index has traded in a sideways range, reflecting a period of distribution among several large and mid cap constituents. The following key developments are also noted: The price has shifted below it's 50-day EMA (the 50-day EMA has also lost it's upside momentum and is turning lower). The price is breaking below it's 21-week EMA - a level which previous held as support on retracements. The price continues to trade above it's 50-week EMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The price continues to trade above it's 200-day SMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The 50-week EMA and 200-day SMA are currently aligned. This range could act as a level of support on a further retracement. Do however note that the price has the ability to overshoot this range and test the swing low of 11 September at 72991. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Northam Platinum  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Previous Post (18 January 2025): Automated Insights: Northam Platinum As A Real-Time Example Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. You may be asking: 'Why are we looking back?' My Answer: "To determine whether the system provided traders with the ' RIGHT SIGNAL ' at the ' RIGHT TIME '. No model or system of automation in the financial markets, anywhere in the world works 100% of the time, and neither does this one . It may however help to improve an existing process for a market participants who require timely, non-biased insights. Below, I provide recent an ACTUAL and REAL-TIME example of the readings (Northam Platinum), all of which are time-stamped as proof. Northam Platinum Opportunity Number 1 Friday 13 December (just before it started to form a base). Model Reading "Reward-To-Risk Becoming Attractive For Small Long Position" Subsequently, a base from R96 to R100, followed by a rally R114.   Below is the time-stamped reading. Marked number 1 on the chart Northam Platinum Opportunity Number 2 Thursday 24 October (just before it started to peak).   Model Reading "Extremely Overbought..." Subsequently, it peaked around R145, followed by a rapid decline to below R100. Below is the time-stamped reading. Marked number 2 on the chart Northam Platinum Opportunity Number 3 Monday 09 September (just before it developed a bullish reverse).  Model Reading "Has been sold aggressively. Look for a continued decline before a minor rebound..." Subsequently, the share printed two doji candles (not a major decline from the reading), then rallied from R90 to R145. Below is the time-stamped reading. Marked number 3 on the chart Other real-time examples include: BTI: https://www.unum.capital/post/opportunities-reward-to-risk Gold Shares: https://www.unum.capital/post/3-factors-gold-shares IMP: https://www.unum.capital/post/analysis-from-the-tactical-trading-guide-impala-platinum-as-an-example-friday-13-september-2024 ABG: https://www.unum.capital/post/let-the-data-speak-absa-and-capitec-bank-as-real-time-examples-thursday-27-june-2024 DSY: https://www.unum.capital/post/recognizing-opportunity-and-managing-risk-dsy-as-an-example Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Screen as of end of day on Wednesday 29 January 2025 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Screen as of end of day on Wednesday 29 January 2025 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Screen as of end of day on Wednesday 29 January 2025 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   FX: EUR/USD   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The pair has pulled back over the two sessions, in line with the price action model (1 to 10 days), however, the medium and long term readings (scroll further down to see Friday's model) remains in place. Previous Post (Friday 24 January): FX: The Euro (EUR) Is Continuing It's Bullish Reversal. This Is The Current Model Reading Analyst's price Action Model as of Friday 24 January at 13h13 Previous Post: EUR/USD Attempting A Bullish Reversal Following An Aggressive Sell-Off Analyst's Price Action Model Let's break down the EUR/USD trend analysis based on the price action model: Overall Trend: Long Term: Persistently Weak But Monitor Lower Times For Rebound Potential Short-Term Trends: 7-Day Trend: Neutral 14-Day Trend: Rangebound Short-Term Trading Opportunities: No explicit short-term buy/long position opportunities are indicated in the image. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks): Strong Attempting At Bullish Reversal Following Aggressive Sell-Off Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): Persistently Weak But Monitor Lower Times For Rebound Potential Summary: The EUR/USD pair is currently in a long-term downtrend. In the short term, the 7-day trend is neutral, while the 14-day trend is rangebound. There is no explicit signal for a short-term buy or long position. However, the medium-term outlook suggests a potential bullish reversal following a recent sell-off. In the long term, the pair is expected to remain weak, but with potential for rebounds. ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Prosus N.V  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Our tools and insights help traders to manage risk and uncover opportunity. The price action model for JSE-listed Prosus is a real-time example of such. Short (Sell): Time-Stamped Model Warning on Unattractive Reward-to-Risk. Long (Buy): Time-Stamped Model Alerting To Opportunity: "Look for a further decline /dip before a minor rebound"   Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Old Mutual  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Rebounding in line with view via previous post (15 January): OLD MUTUAL: Oversold + Approaching Prior Swing Low. Also rebound in with model reading this past Friday 24 January: "Expect a small rebound". Previous Post (15 January at 10h42): OLD MUTUAL: Oversold + Approaching Prior Swing Low Analyst's Price Action Model at 10h24 Q: What is the overall trend of Old Mutual? A: The overall trend of Old Mutual appears to be weak, with selling pressure evident. However, there is a probability of a small rebound. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend for Old Mutual is oversold. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend for Old Mutual is very bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, the reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position. Q: What is the advice for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: For the medium term, the advice is to wait for lower time frames to stabilize before taking any aggressive selling action. Q: What is the advice for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The share has been weak however, there is a possibility of a small rebound. Summary: The Old Mutual price action model indicates a weak overall trend with oversold and very bearish short-term trends. Despite this, there's a potential opportunity for a small buy/long position due to the improving reward-to-risk ratio. For the medium term, it's recommended to wait for lower time frames to stabilize before aggressive selling. In the long term, the share has been weak however, there is a possibility of a small rebound. OMU Daily Chart as of Wednesday 15 January at 10h31 Previous Post: OLD MUTUAL Discount Relative To Sector Peers + Emerging From A Technical Base The most appropriate metric to value insurers is 'price to embedded value'. One could also consider price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield. Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 10h52) The most appropriate metric to value insurers is 'price to embedded value'. One could also consider price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield. Relative to it's peer group OMU is trading at a discount. OMU Price to Book Value (1.01x) vs SLM at 2.02x and MTM at 1.46x OMU Price to Earnings Ratio (6.5x) vs SLM at 11.9x and MTM at 10.3x OMU Dividend Yield (6.3%) vs SLM at 4.4x and MTM at 4.05x OMU has previously been discussed in the following posts: https://www.unum.capital/post/old-mutual-similar-to-momentum-metropolitan-thursday-01-august-2024 https://www.unum.capital/post/zooming-out-5-monthly-charts-thursday-01-august-2024 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The full, measured move target has been of $672 has been reached (closed higher at $674). this represents a gain of 28% in 4 1/2 months. Bank, Take Profit. Previous Post: 12 September Real-Time: 19h12 (South African Time) / U.S Trading Session Ticker: FB Formerly known as Facebook Inc, the share has shown relative strength, holding near it's multi-year highs however not having made much progress since the first quarter of this year. This could change as the price looks to re-test it's overhead resistance of $543 upon which strong price action/candle structure would suggest a move into a new trading range and a continuation of the multi-year upward trend. Here, an upside target of $672 applicable, with the setup being invalidated on a weekly close below $490. Note: Meta Platforms (Facebook) was an idea flagged through my model nearly 2 years ago at $90. Now trading above $522! Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade TFG and other JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za On Sunday I discussed Foschini (TFG), highlighting how the share traded down by 15% from R172, reaching a level just below R146 on Friday (trading update released). Update: It traded lower to R142. For traders who prefer continuation trades, the price action model helps to recognize these. TFG is a great example. The time-stamped reading below as at the end of day on 15 January states the following: "The upward trend has turned weaker. Use rebounds into the 21 to 50-EMA as a potential short/sell range" Well done to traders who are capitalizing on the opportunities at hand. Previous Post (Sunday 26 January). Trading: The Foschini Group (TFG) Actionable Areas Previous Post (Sunday 26 January): Trading: TFG Short sellers (traders position for a move lower) are benefitting from the share price decline. TFG is down by 15% from R172, reaching a level just below R146 on Friday (trading update released). If you are short (have been positioned for a price decline), then consider covering some that position). The bearish move is in line with our view that the bullish momentum for the Consumer Discretionary sector is waning. Current Model Reading: Analyst's Price Action Model Reading Previous Post (07 January): JSE Consumer Discretionary: Relative To The Top 40, Bullish Momentum Is Waning Note the bearish MACD crossover and histogram which previously warned around a pullback. Equally-weighted index includes (TFG, MRP, TRU, WHL) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Access   Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za This evening AMZN reached an all-time high of $241.77. The share was featured as our global pick on 23 September, below $196. Well done shareholders! Previous Post: AMAZON Running + Trading At All Time Highs Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: Pre-Market) To trade global instruments, you will need an offshore account. To get started, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Well done to clients who may have latched onto the opportunity. Previous Post: Room To Run: Offshore Stock Pick - Monday, 23 September 2024 PREMIUM POST Pre-market U.S. Trading Session Key Drivers At the forefront of global innovation Analysts are forecasting substantial free cash flow in the years ahead A driven founder/management team with significant interests (shareholding) Sector disruptor Technically: a 4-year consolidation, with strong price action at the top of it's range and potential to break out to new highs. WEEKLY CHART

Trade   British American Tobacco   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Analyst's Price Action Model Reading Previous Post: (Monday 27 January) Trading British American Tobacco: Higher By R200 (+37%) Over 13 Months This post is a continuation of the commentary on the share at various points over the 13 months (beginning December 2023). It highlights both the manual views and automated tool used to take advantage of opportunities on both the buy (long) and sell (short) side. The share currently trades at a 2-year high. Well done to clients who may have capitalized on these opportunities. At current levels, the model reading is as follows: Previous Post: A Useful Tool For Uncovering Opportunity & Assessing Reward-To-Risk: BTI As An Example Monday 25 November 2024 (Time: 11h04) Are you taking advantage of the tools provided? On the back of a the model reading on Friday 18 October (end of day) : "The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position", BTI has rallied from R600 to R680 Both the previous long and short side posts are shown below ( scroll down for the previous posts ) Below is the reading for Fri 18-October, as mentioned above: Previous Post: Get Ready To Trade: British American Tobacco Date: Monday, 07 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Ticker: BTI My model called for a pullback from overbought conditions, citing an unattractive reward-to-risk on the buy/long side. Since then, the share has retreated from R690 to below R610 Next Best Probability Entry Range is shown below. Previous Post: Thursday, 05 September 2024 Real-Time: 14h00 Ticker: BTI Previous Post(s) Real-Time: 10h53 Ticker: BTI BTI has been a profitable medium term trading opportunity for clients of Unum Capital. At current levels, the high bullish momentum conditions benefit existing shareholders however, it may also be an opportunity to reduce into strength. As re-iterated on Monday, 29 April: As discussed in December: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital