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THE TRIANGLE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING COMPLETION. The RS pattern is advancing and appears to be entering its final downward stage, marked as Phase E. It is anticipated that the completion of this triangle pattern will initiate a strong upward trend toward Target 1 (T1) and potentially further. There is an interim expectation for a consolidation phase around the R1/S1 levels, which is now emerging as an overlapping LM flag pattern. As a result, the R1 level has been revised to reflect this development. The concluding downward movement towards a cluster support, ranging between (S-18.29) and the second support level (S2*), is expected to finalize the R/S triangle pattern. Alternatively, should the price break below the critical S2* level, it would invalidate the current triangular pattern hypothesis, indicating instead that a more extended R3/S3 corrective phase is underway. Target and Reassessment Levels: Important Levels: S2* - 18.12 Primary Trend: RS Triangle pattern consolidation, followed by a bull trend to 20.90 and beyond. Current Trend: 18.29 to 19.33 defined bullish correction Monthly Range: 18.55 to 19.33 Technical Rating: Medium

The Week That Was US equities exhibited a mixed performance on Friday, with the record-setting surge, driven by expectations that the US Federal Reserve might implement three rate cuts this year, encountering a breather. The Dow Jones Industrial Average receded by 305 points, falling short of the 40 000 milestone, while the S&P 500 experienced a slight decline of 0.1%. Conversely, the Nasdaq Composite edged higher by 0.2%, buoyed by Nvidia's impressive 3.1% gain, which propelled semiconductor stocks to their strongest quarter since 2001. Amidst varying company performances, Nike's shares dropped 6.8% following its forecast of a sales dip in the upcoming half-year. Tesla saw a 1.1% decrease in its stock value amidst news of scaled-back electric vehicle production in its China facility. Lululemon faced a significant 15.7% drop in share value after presenting a less-than-optimistic growth forecast and reporting a slowdown in its North American market, marking its largest single-day loss since March 2020. On a brighter note, FedEx shares climbed 7.3% as the company's earnings were bolstered by strategic cost reductions. Over the week, the Dow Jones advanced nearly 2%, achieving its most robust week since December, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq concluded the week with gains of 2.3% and 2.9%, respectively. On Friday, South African markets concluded the trading day on a positive note, with notable advancements across various sectors leading to a cheerful close. The day was particularly favourable for precious metal shares, despite a mix of performances within the sector. Specifically, gold mining companies witnessed a downturn with Sibanye Stillwater, Gold Fields, AngloGold Ashanti, and Harmony Gold Mining Company experiencing declines of 11.9%, 5.3%, 2.8%, and 1.1% respectively. Similarly, platinum miners including Impala Platinum Holdings, Anglo American Platinum, and Northam Platinum faced drops of 10.9%, 8.1%, and 3.8%, respectively. Contrastingly, the telecommunications sector enjoyed gains, with MTN Group, Telkom SA SOC, and Blue Label Telecoms climbing 7.4%, 4.8%, and 4.4%, respectively. In the chemicals sector, AECI and Omnia Holdings saw upward movements of 1.7% and 0.8%, showcasing a modest but positive trajectory. However, the property sector struggled, marked by declines in Delta Property Fund, Emira Property Fund, and Hyprop Investments, which fell by 12.5%, 3.4%, and 1.3%, respectively. The financial services sector also experienced a slight retreat with Absa Group, Standard Bank Group, and FirstRand dipping by 1.6%, 0.9%, and 0.7%, respectively. Despite these mixed results across various industries, the overall market sentiment remained bullish, leading the JSE All Share Index to rise by 1.2%, closing at 73 254.19. The Week Ahead In the US, attention is poised on Federal Reserve policymakers for guidance on the central bank's future direction, with special focus on Chairman Jerome Powell's expected speech this Friday. Key indicators to watch include the PCE price indexes, personal income and spending, and durable goods orders. Analysts predict a 0.4% increase in February's PCE prices, a slight elevation from January's 0.3%, with core prices projected to rise by 0.3%. Consumer spending and income are both anticipated to grow by 0.4%. Furthermore, durable goods orders are forecasted to recover by 1.3% in February, bouncing back from a significant drop since April 2020. Other crucial reports include the final Q4 GDP estimate, corporate earnings, and the Michigan consumer sentiment index, alongside regional economic indicators and housing market data. Notably, the US equity market will observe the Good Friday holiday with a closure. In Europe, the week will see limited economic data releases due to the Easter holidays, with markets closed on Good Friday and Easter Monday. Notable data include Euro Area economic sentiment, Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence, retail sales, and unemployment rate. The UK will spotlight its final Q4 GDP growth, business investment, and current account figures. Asia is set for a quieter week, with China releasing industrial profits data amidst speculation on potential stimulus measures and currency management. Japan will release minutes from the Bank of Japan's last meeting and other vital economic indicators, offering insights into future policy directions. Key Themes for the Week Ahead US economic outlook The US is set to publish the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Good Friday, a day when markets are closed. This index, which omits food and energy costs, is anticipated to show a 0.3% increase for February. This follows a significant rise the previous month, marking its largest monthly gain in a year. Despite upward adjustments to economic growth forecasts, the Federal Reserve maintains its projection for three interest rate reductions this year. However, it emphasises the need for more concrete evidence of inflation deceleration before considering policy easing. Additionally, the economic agenda will highlight updates on new home sales, durable goods orders, revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the weekly initial jobless claims report. US Federal Reserve insights This week will feature appearances from key Federal Reserve figures, including Chair Jerome Powell, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller. Some analysts suggest that these Fed officials might adopt a more hawkish stance regarding the future of policy interest rates, potentially influencing the 10-year yield. Despite Powell's unexpectedly dovish remarks, the overall sentiment among Fed officials, as inferred from recent economic projections, suggests expectations of stronger economic growth, higher inflation, and a slight increase in the long-term interest rate, presenting a less dovish outlook than Powell's commentary might suggest. Equity market trends The equity market witnessed notable gains last week, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq posting their largest weekly percentage increases since December and January, respectively. While some analysts predict a potential market correction following the S&P 500's 27% surge since late October, others anticipate the upward trend will persist. This optimism is supported by a diversification in market leadership, reducing the risk of a concentrated correction. Additionally, portfolio adjustments at the quarter's end may introduce further market volatility. Oil market dynamics Oil prices saw a minor decline last Friday, ending the week with minimal change. Factors such as the potential for a ceasefire in Gaza, ongoing conflicts in Europe, and a decrease in the US rig count influenced the market. Furthermore, a strengthening US dollar, bolstered by the Swiss National Bank's unexpected rate cut, exerted additional pressure on oil prices by making it more costly for non-dollar holders. Despite these challenges, analysts remain optimistic about the possibility of reaching new price highs, driven by an expansion in risk appetite following the Federal Reserve's less hawkish statements. Global inflation concerns The Reserve Bank of Australia is closely monitoring the upcoming inflation data, with February's figures expected to reflect changes in service prices more accurately than in previous months. This data could reinforce the central bank's cautious stance before considering rate cuts amid a slowing economy. Inflation in Australia is predicted to increase slightly to 3.5% in February from 3.4% in January. Meanwhile, Japan will release its inflation data on Friday, although the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike—the first in 17 years—may temper the response to these figures. South Africa News The water crisis, affecting residents of every socioeconomic status, marks an unprecedented period of shortage. Driven by a lethal combination of intense heat depleting reservoir levels and years of neglect leading to crumbling infrastructure, this crisis is at the forefront of the challenges facing the nation. Such escalating public dissatisfaction poses a considerable risk to the African National Congress's long-standing dominance, a party that has been at the helm since the demise of apartheid in the 1990s. With a pivotal election looming this year, the party's control is under threat as never before. Amidst the backdrop of enduring electricity blackouts, the nation is now confronting a phenomenon known as "watershedding." This term, mirroring "loadshedding" which refers to power outages, illustrates the distressing new reality of scheduled water cut-offs, further exacerbating the country's infrastructure challenges. Almost thirty years since embracing democracy, land reform stands at the heart of South Africa's transformative agendas, including its agricultural strategy. Through efforts in redistribution, approximately 25% of the country's farmland is presently under the ownership of black South Africans. This progress moves us nearer to our goal of ensuring 30% ownership by 2030, highlighting a significant stride in our journey towards equity and inclusivity in land ownership. Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, the Speaker of South Africa's National Assembly, announced her decision to take special leave amid ongoing investigations into accusations of corruption stemming from her tenure as Defence Minister. The probe into these allegations led investigators to conduct a raid on Mapisa-Nqakula's residence, though specific details about the investigation or the nature of the accusations have not been disclosed. Serving as Defence Minister from 2012 to 2021, Mapisa-Nqakula has firmly denied any misconduct. Economic Calendar In the upcoming economic calendar for this week, several significant events are scheduled to take place. source: investing.com

What is a Heatmap? A heatmap is a graphical representation of data where individual shares are represented as colours. In this context, the heatmap below shows the top 60 JSE (Johannesburg Stock Exchange) shares by value traded and their percentage daily change. Share Tickers: Each block or cell in the heatmap is labelled with a ticker symbol, representing a particular share on the JSE. For example, "IMP" or "NPN" are tickers for specific companies listed on the JSE. Axes: The x-axis depicts the "Percentage Change", spanning from negative to positive values. It reflects the day-to-day fluctuations in a share's price, with positive values signifying an uptick in share price value and negative ones denoting a decline. Block size: The size of each block signifies the "Value Traded" for a particular share in a day. "Value Traded" denotes the total monetary amount of a specific share exchanged on the equity market within a given day. It is determined by multiplying the volume of shares traded with their average trading price for that day. Formula: Value Traded = Number of Shares Traded × Average Trading Price of the Share This metric is pivotal as it sheds light on the liquidity and activity surrounding a specific share. A higher value traded typically signifies increased interest and engagement with that share for a multitude of reasons. Conversely, a lower value traded might suggest diminished interest or activity in that particular share. How to Use the Heatmap: When analysing equity markets, both the "value traded" and the direction of the share price movement (percentage change) can provide critical insights into the sentiment and behaviour of traders and investors. High Trading Volume with Rising Share Price (larger block sizes and darker shading of green): Interpretation: This typically indicates a strong buying interest in the share. A higher volume of shares being traded, combined with an upward movement in price, suggests that the demand for the share is outstripping supply. This can be due to positive news about the company, better-than-expected earnings reports, or any other factor that boosts traders' and investors' confidence in the share's future performance. Possible Implications: The share may be in a bullish phase. This scenario might attract more market participants who want to capitalise on the upward trend, further pushing the price up, at least in the short term. However, traders and investors need to be cautious about potential overvaluations. High Trading Volume with Declining Share Price (larger block sizes and darker shading of red): Interpretation: This indicates strong selling pressure. Even though a large volume of shares is being traded, the fact that the price is declining suggests that there is more supply than demand for the share. Reasons can include negative news about the company, disappointing earnings reports, or broader negative market or sector trends. Possible Implications: The share might be in a bearish phase, signalling a potential downtrend. This can cause panic selling among market participants, which might further depress the share price. On the other hand, some market participants might see this as an opportunity to buy the share at a discounted price, anticipating a future rebound. High Trading Volume with Minimal Price Fluctuation (larger block sizes with a beige shading): Interpretation: When there is a large value traded with minimal share price movement, it suggests that there is equilibrium between buyers and sellers: A high trading volume with little change in price indicates that there is a balance between buying and selling pressure. For every trader or investor eager to sell, there is someone equally willing to buy at nearly the same price. Possible Implications: The share could be in a consolidation phase, where it is finding a stable price range after a period of significant upward or downward movement. This phase can often precede a breakout in either direction, depending on subsequent news or market sentiment. The share might be trading near a strong support (a price level where a share tends to find buying interest) or resistance level (a price level where selling interest tends to surface). Even with high trading volumes, the share might struggle to break these levels, leading to minimal price movement. Low Trading Volume with Significant Price Swing (Either Direction) (small block sizes with either a darker shading of green or red): Interpretation: When there is a small value traded combined with significant share price movement either upwards or downwards, the share might not be highly liquid, meaning there are not many shares available for trading. In such cases, even small buy or sell orders can cause disproportionate price movements. Possible Implications: Shares that are thinly traded or have low trading volumes can be more volatile, leading to larger price swings with fewer shares being exchanged. The share might be highly sensitive to specific news or events. Even if only a few traders and investors react to the news, it can cause a significant price movement due to the low volume of trades. Low Trading Volume with Minimal Price Fluctuations (small block sizes with a beige shading): Interpretation: There might be a general consensus about the share's value among the few participants, leading to little price movement. In the absence of any significant news or events related to the company or its industry, traders and investors might have no strong incentive to buy or sell, resulting in low trading volume and stable prices. Possible Implications: Market participants could be on the sidelines, waiting for a clear indication or event that might dictate the share's future direction. Until such an event occurs, there may be limited trading activity and minimal price change. The nearly unchanged price with low volume might indicate that the market is indecisive about that particular share at the moment, with no strong bullish or bearish sentiment driving it. Conclusion: When the bulk of the blocks are sizable and green, it signifies a largely upbeat market day, underscored by heightened trading activity. These shares could be potential candidates for a long position. On the other hand, if a majority of blocks are red and indicate robust trading, the market seems to have tilted towards a negative trend, suggesting possible short-sell opportunities. For shares represented by beige blocks, whether large or small, it might be prudent to exercise caution or steer clear In all the scenarios presented, it is crucial to consider other market indicators and conduct a comprehensive analysis before making investment decisions. External factors, such as macroeconomic conditions, industry trends, and geopolitical events, can also influence share price movements and trading volumes.

What is a Heatmap? This heatmap displays value trader data regarding the top 60 JSE (Johannesburg Stock Exchange) shares. It depicts how their last value traded compares to their average daily value traded over the last 20 days. Share Tickers: Each block or cell in the heatmap is labelled with a ticker symbol, representing a particular share on the JSE. For example, "IMP" or "NPN" are tickers for specific companies listed o the JSE. Axes: The x-axis represents the "Percentage of Average Value Traded", ranging from zero to positive percentages. It illustrates the daily variations in a share's trading volume (value traded), where increased positive values indicate an increase in the value of shares traded. Block size: The size of each block signifies the "Value Traded" for a particular share in a day, compared to its 20-day value traded, expressed as a percentage. The greater the block size, the more significant the increase in value traded. Furthermore, blocks with a reddish hue indicate that the value traded is associated with a volume spike. In essence, a volume spike refers to a sudden and notable increase in the number of shares traded in a short period, often signalling heightened traders and investor interest or activity in that particular share. "Value Traded" denotes the total monetary amount of a specific share exchanged on the equity market within a given day. It is determined by multiplying the volume of shares traded with their average trading price for that day. Formula: Value Traded = Number of Shares Traded × Average Trading Price of the Share Average Value Traded Per Share, is the average of the daily traded values for the last 20 trading sessions. It provides a more stable measure to compare against a single day's value traded. Formula: Percentage of average value traded = Value traded for one day ÷ 20-Day Average Value Traded How to Use the Heatmap: The presence of various colors from blue to red suggests that there's a diverse trading behavior among the top 60 JSE shares. Some share are experiencing a surge in trading activity, while others are seeing less than usual. The shares in the red zone might be experiencing significant events, news, or developments leading to heightened trader and investor interest, resulting in higher trading volumes. Conversely, the shares in the blue zone could be in a consolidation phase, or there might not be any significant news driving the share, leading to decreased interest and trading activity. Interpretation Liquidity Indicator A higher average traded value suggests that the share is more liquid, meaning it can be bought or sold in larger quantities without causing significant price movements. This can be beneficial for large institutional investors who need to make big trades without impacting the price too much. Trader and Investor Interest A sudden spike in the daily value traded compared to the 20-day average can indicate heightened trader and investor interest, either due to recent news, earnings announcements, or other market events. Value Traded Per Day > 20-Day Average (large red blocks): When the value traded on a particular day is significantly higher than the 20-day average, it could signify increased buying/selling activity. This could be due to recent positive/negative news, earnings beats/misses, or sector-specific developments. Such spikes warrant further investigation into why traders and investors are showing increased interest. Value Traded Per Day < 20-Day Average (large blue blocks): If the value traded on a particular day is much lower than the 20-day average, it might indicate decreased interest or a potential consolidation phase. In such cases, traders and investors might be in a "wait and watch" mode, or there might not be any significant news driving the share. Consistency (small red and blue blocks) If the daily traded value remains consistently close to the 20-day average, it suggests stability in the share's trading patterns. However, small red blocks signify that traded values for these shares are also higher than their respective averages. Conclusion This heatmap provides a visual snapshot of the trading activity of the top 60 JSE shares relative to their average daily values. Traders and investors can use such visualisations to quickly identify shares with abnormal trading volumes, which might warrant further investigation or present potential trading opportunities. In all the scenarios presented, it is crucial to consider other market indicators and conduct a comprehensive analysis before making investment decisions. External factors, such as macroeconomic conditions, industry trends, and geopolitical events, can also influence share price movements and trading volumes.

Introduction: This graph is a scatter plot presenting volume analysis for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The horizontal axis (x-axis) represents the "Volume multiple of the last 200 trading days", indicating how much the volume of the day’s trading compares to the average of the last 200 days. A value of 1 would mean the volume is equal to the 200-day average, values greater than 1 mean more than average volume, and values less than 1 mean less than average volume. The vertical axis (y-axis) shows the "Percentage daily change", which represents the percentage change in the share price compared to the previous day. Positive values indicate an increase in share price, while negative values indicate a decrease. The points on the graph are labelled with ticker symbols representing different companies. Points above the horizontal axis represent shares that have increased in price, and points below it represent shares that have decreased in price. Similarly, points to the right of the vertical axis represent shares with higher trading volumes than the average, and points to the left represent shares with lower-than-average trading volumes. Interpretation: Shares in the upper right quadrant (green dots) could be considered strong performers as they are experiencing both a high volume of trading and an increase in price. This could indicate positive investor sentiment and possibly a good buying opportunity if the momentum is expected to continue. Shares in the lower right quadrant (red dots) might be experiencing a high volume of trades but are decreasing in price. This could signal a selling pressure or negative sentiment, and investors might want to investigate further before making a decision, as they could represent either a potential for buying at a lower price (if the fundamentals are solid) or a risk if the price continues to decline. Shares in the lower left quadrant (red dots) are seeing both lower volumes and a decrease in price, which could be a sign of weak investor interest or a negative outlook, suggesting caution. Shares in the upper left quadrant (green dots) are experiencing an increase in price despite trading at lower volumes, which could indicate undervalued opportunities but also might suggest lower confidence among investors, thus these would require careful analysis. Before making any investment decisions, it is important to consider other factors beyond just the volume and price change. These can include fundamental analysis of the company's financial health, news, industry trends, and overall market conditions. Additionally, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Always conduct thorough research.

Introduction In the world of equity market analysis, traders and investors often seek to identify promising investment opportunities by evaluating the performance of various shares. One valuable tool that aids in this analysis is the Relative Rotational Graph (RRG). RRG is a graphical representation that helps investors understand the relative strength and momentum of different shares within a given market or sector. What is a Relative Rotational Graph (RRG)? A Relative Rotational Graph is a visual representation of the relative performance of shares in comparison to a benchmark index or a specific group of shares. The graph plots individual shares as data points and illustrates their movement over time, relative to the benchmark. The positioning of each share on the graph provides crucial insights into its relative strength, momentum, and potential investment opportunities. How RRG Works: The Four Quadrants The RRG chart is divided into four quadrants, each representing different stages of relative performance: Leading (Leading Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are exhibiting strong relative strength and positive momentum compared to the benchmark. They are outperforming the broader market or sector and are considered leaders in terms of price performance. These shares are regarded as potential Profit takes or Holds candidates. Weakening (Weakening Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are experiencing a decline in relative strength compared to the benchmark. While they might still be in an uptrend, their momentum is slowing down, and they may be losing some of their leadership positions. These shares are classified as potential Deteriorating candidates or short-selling. Lagging (Lagging Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are underperforming the benchmark. They are experiencing weak relative strength and may be struggling compared to other shares or the broader market. These shares are classified as potential Avoid candidates. Improving (Improving Quadrant): Shares in this quadrant are showing signs of improvement in relative strength, indicating that they are gaining momentum and starting to outperform the benchmark. These shares are considered as potential Buy candidates. Interpreting RRG for Investment Insights When analysing a Relative Rotational Graph, traders and investors can draw several meaningful conclusions: Identifying Leaders and Laggards: RRG helps investors quickly identify which shares are leading the market's upward trends and which are lagging behind. Leading shares in the Leading Quadrant might be attractive investment candidates, while those in the Lagging Quadrant could warrant closer examination to understand potential weaknesses. Spotting Trend Reversals: A changing position of a share on the RRG can signal a potential trend reversal. For example, a share moving from the Weakening Quadrant to the Improving Quadrant may indicate a shift in momentum and an upcoming upward trend. Diversification Insights: RRG can assist in portfolio diversification by highlighting shares that exhibit a low correlation with the benchmark. Adding shares with diverse movement patterns can help reduce overall portfolio risk. Monitoring Sector Rotations: RRG is especially useful for sector rotation strategies, where investors rotate their investments based on the relative strength of sectors. It helps identify which sectors are currently leading or lagging in the market. Limitations of RRG While RRG is a valuable tool, it is essential to recognize its limitations: Historical Performance: RRG is based on past price data and may not always predict future movements accurately. Not a Standalone Indicator: RRG should be used in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools for comprehensive decision-making. Volatility Impact: Highly volatile shares may exhibit erratic movements on the RRG, making interpretation challenging. Conclusion Relative Rotational Graphs provide traders and investors with a powerful visual representation of the relative performance of shares compared to a benchmark index or a group of shares. By understanding the quadrants and interpreting the movements of individual shares, investors can gain valuable insights into market trends, identify potential investment opportunities, and optimise their portfolio allocations. As with any investment analysis tool, it should be used alongside other methods and within the context of a well-thought-out investment strategy. JSE All Share constituent RRG chart: The updated RRG chart displayed below compares the individual constituents of the JSE All Share index against the index itself. This chart undergoes daily updates, and to enhance clarity, various colour backgrounds are utilised for ease of reference. Leading (Leading Quadrant): Green background. These shares are regarded as potential Profit takes or Hold candidates. Weakening (Weakening Quadrant): Yellow background. These shares are classified as potential Deteriorating candidates or short-selling. Lagging (Lagging Quadrant): Red background. These shares are classified as potential Avoid candidates. Improving (Improving Quadrant): Blue background. These shares are considered potential Buy candidates. Access and download the annotated file from this link.

Introduction When it comes to investing in shares, it's crucial to be armed with the right tools and knowledge to make informed decisions. One of the most important metrics that investors use to assess the risk and return potential of equities is beta. Beta is a numerical value that measures the sensitivity of a share's price movements relative to changes in the broader market. We will delve into the concept of beta and explore its significance for share investors. What is Beta? Beta, often denoted as "β," is a statistical measure used in finance to quantify the volatility or systematic risk of a share compared to the overall market. The market, in this context, is typically represented by an index, such as the Top 40 index. The beta value indicates how much a share's price is expected to move concerning the market's movements. It helps investors understand how closely the share's performance is tied to the market's fluctuations. Interpreting Beta Values β = 1: If a share has a beta of 1, it moves in perfect correlation with the market. Its price tends to rise or fall by the same percentage as the market index. Such shares are considered market-neutral in terms of volatility. β < 1: A share with a beta below 1 is less volatile than the market. In other words, it is expected to have smaller price swings than the overall market. These shares are often referred to as defensive equities and are perceived to offer a more stable investment option. β > 1: A share with a beta above 1 is more volatile than the market. It tends to experience larger price movements, both upward and downward, compared to the market index. These shares are considered aggressive or growth-oriented investments. Risk and Return Relationship Beta plays a crucial role in determining the risk and return profile of a share. Typically, higher beta shares offer the potential for greater returns but also come with higher risk. Conversely, lower beta shares may have more modest returns but tend to be less risky and more stable during market downturns. For example, if Share A has a beta of 1.5, and the market (represented by an index) increases by 10%, Share A might be expected to rise by 15% (1.5 times the market return). Conversely, if the market falls by 10%, Share A could be anticipated to decline by 15%. How to Use Beta in Investment Decisions Diversification: Beta can help investors build a diversified portfolio. By combining shares with different beta values, investors can offset the risk of high-beta shares with the stability of low-beta shares. Risk Management: Beta assists in assessing the level of risk an investor is willing to undertake. Conservative investors might opt for low-beta shares, while those seeking higher returns might favour high-beta shares. Market Timing: Understanding beta can help investors make better decisions about when to buy or sell a share. During a bullish market, high-beta shares may outperform, while during a bearish market, low-beta shares may hold up better. Limitations of Beta While beta is a valuable metric, it does have some limitations: Historical Data: Beta is based on historical price movements, and the past may not necessarily predict future performance accurately. Market Conditions: Beta assumes that market conditions will remain constant, which is often not the case. Single-factor Metric: Beta considers only market-related risk and does not account for other factors like company-specific events or changes in industry dynamics. Conclusion Beta is a useful tool for investors to gauge the volatility and risk associated with a particular share relative to the overall market. It aids in constructing a well-balanced portfolio and managing risk according to individual investment goals and risk tolerance. However, beta should not be the sole factor in investment decisions, as it's essential to consider other aspects of a company's fundamentals and the broader economic environment to make well-informed investment choices. As with any investment analysis, it's prudent to conduct thorough research. Top 40 share beta and selected markets: The heatmap displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index alongside selected major markets. This dynamic heatmap is updated daily, providing valuable insights. For added convenience, you can download the corresponding data as an Excel file. Stay informed of the latest trends and changes in the market through this user-friendly visualisation. Download the Excel file here:

Introduction In the world of share trading, understanding correlation is vital for making informed investment decisions and managing risk effectively. Correlation plays a crucial role in assessing how different shares or assets move in relation to each other, providing insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and potential investment opportunities. We will explore the concept of correlation in share trading, its importance, and how traders and investors can leverage this knowledge to improve their strategies. What is Correlation in Share Trading? In share trading, correlation refers to the statistical relationship between the price movements of two or more shares or assets. When two shares have a positive correlation, they tend to move in the same direction – when one share's price increases, the other share's price also increases. On the other hand, a negative correlation indicates that two shares tend to move in opposite directions – when one share's price increases, the other share's price decreases. Finally, if two shares have a correlation close to zero, it suggests that their price movements are not significantly related. Measuring Correlation in Share Trading The most common method of measuring correlation between two shares is by using the Pearson correlation coefficient, just like in general statistics. The correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to 1, with the same interpretation as before: r = 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, where the two shares move in complete harmony. r = -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, where the two shares move in opposite directions. r ≈ 0 indicates little to no correlation, suggesting that the two shares have independent price movements. Importance of Correlation in Share Trading Understanding the correlation between different shares is crucial for several reasons: Diversification: Correlation helps traders identify assets that have low or negative correlations with each other. Diversifying a portfolio with assets that are not highly correlated can help reduce overall risk. When some assets decrease in value, others might increase, which can mitigate losses. Risk Management: High correlations among shares can increase the overall risk in a portfolio. If all shares in a portfolio are positively correlated, they are more likely to experience simultaneous declines during market downturns. By knowing the correlation between holdings, traders can optimise their portfolios to manage risk more effectively. Identifying Investment Opportunities: Traders can use correlation analysis to identify potential investment opportunities. For example, if they notice a positive correlation between two shares, they might consider one as a proxy for the other. If the correlation is negative, they may see a hedging opportunity to protect against price declines. Sector Analysis: Correlation analysis can help traders understand the broader movements within specific sectors or industries. For example, in a technology-heavy sector, many shares might be positively correlated, and understanding this can influence investment decisions within that sector. Limitations of Correlation in Share Trading While correlation is a valuable tool, it has its limitations: Changing Market Conditions: Correlations between shares can change over time due to shifts in market dynamics, economic conditions, or company-specific events. Traders need to monitor correlations regularly and be prepared for them to evolve. Limited to Linear Relationships: Correlation measures linear relationships between variables. Some shares may have non-linear relationships, making it important to consider other forms of analysis alongside correlation. Causation Concerns: As always, it's essential to remember that correlation does not imply causation. Just because two shares are correlated does not necessarily mean that one share causes the price movement of the other. Conclusion In share trading, understanding correlation is a powerful tool for making informed decisions, managing risk, and optimising investment portfolios. By analysing the relationship between different shares, traders can diversify their portfolios effectively, identify hedging opportunities, and navigate changing market conditions more intelligently. However, correlation should always be used in combination with other forms of analysis, and traders must be cautious about drawing causal conclusions solely based on correlation. With a solid understanding of correlation, traders can navigate the dynamic world of share trading with greater confidence and success. Top 40 share correlation and selected markets The heatmap displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index alongside selected major markets. This dynamic heatmap is updated daily, providing valuable insights. For added convenience, you can download the corresponding data as an Excel file. Stay informed of the latest trends and changes in the market through this user-friendly visualisation. Download the Excel file here:

Introduction: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a critical technical indicator used by traders and investors to assess the performance of an equity relative to the broader market or its industry peers. By understanding RPS and incorporating it into their investment strategies, individuals can gain valuable insights into an equity's potential for future price movement. We will delve into the concept of RPS, how it is calculated, and its significance in share trading. What is Relative Price Strength (RPS)? Relative Price Strength, also known as Relative Strength, is a momentum-based metric that evaluates an equity's performance relative to a benchmark index or a group of peers. It is used to identify equities that have outperformed or underperformed in their market or sector over a specified period. RPS Calculation: To calculate RPS, we compare the price performance of a particular share to the performance of a designated benchmark index or a group of shares. The RPS calculation typically involves comparing the price change over a specific time frame, depending on the preference of the trader or investor. The formula for calculating RPS is as follows: RPS = (Share's Price at date x / Share's Price at date y) / (Benchmark's Price at date x / Benchmark's Price at date y) date x = most recent price of the share or benchmark date y = price of the share or benchmark x periods ago Understanding RPS Values: The RPS value is represented as a ratio, and it indicates the stock's relative strength compared to the benchmark or peer group. A value above 1 suggests that the share has outperformed the benchmark or peers, while a value below 1 indicates underperformance. Significance of RPS in Share Trading: Identifying Strong Performers: RPS helps traders and investors identify shares that have demonstrated significant price strength compared to the overall market or their sector. These shares are often considered strong performers and may continue to exhibit positive price movement. Trend Confirmation: RPS can help confirm the prevailing trends in the market or sector. Shares with high RPS values are more likely to be in uptrends, while those with low RPS values might be in downtrends. Share Selection: Traders can use RPS to filter and prioritise their share selection process. A higher RPS value could make a share more appealing for trading or investment opportunities. Divergence Detection: RPS can also help identify potential divergences between a share and the broader market or sector. Divergences occur when an equity's price moves in the opposite direction to its RPS, which might signal a potential trend reversal or correction. Limitations of RPS: While RPS can be a valuable tool for assessing relative performance, it has some limitations that traders and investors should be aware of: Short-Term Focus: RPS is primarily a short to medium-term indicator. It might not accurately reflect a share's long-term potential or fundamental strength. Benchmark Selection: The choice of benchmark or peer group can significantly impact the RPS calculation. Different benchmarks can lead to different RPS values for the same share. Conclusion: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a valuable technical indicator that provides insights into an equity's relative performance compared to a benchmark index or its peers. By understanding RPS, traders and investors can make more informed decisions, identify strong performers, and validate existing trends in the market or sector. However, like any single metric, RPS should be used in conjunction with other indicators and fundamental analysis to make well-rounded investment decisions. JSE All Share headline indices RPS: In the financial markets, certain headline indices have showcased remarkable outperformance, suggesting a notable influx of capital. This surge in capital inflow signals growing trader and investor confidence and interest in these headline indices. Whereas traders and investors seem to be reallocating their investments away from headline indices where there is an outflow of capital. Capital Inflow headline indices (in ranking order): 1. Resources 2. Industrials Capital outflow headline indices (in ranking order): 1. Financials JSE All Share share RPS: Understanding the performance of individual shares in comparison to the broader market is crucial for traders and investors seeking to capitalise on market trends. The table below highlights the top 20 and bottom 20 shares based on RPS, with a lookback period of the last 10 days, indicated by their ranking changes since the previous update. The table is updated daily. The Top 20 RPS Leaders: These are the shares that have exhibited the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the past 10 days. The Bottom 20 RPS Laggards: These shares have shown the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period. JSE All Share sector RPS: In this analysis, we will examine the top 10 and bottom 10 sectors based on RPS, considering the lookback period of the last 10 days. The table is also updated daily. The Top 10 RPS Leading Sectors These sectors have demonstrated the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index during the 10-day lookback period. The Bottom 10 RPS Lagging Sectors Conversely, these sectors have exhibited the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period.

Introduction In the world of technical analysis, traders and investors often use various tools and indicators to gain insights into market trends and potential price movements. One such tool is the Linear Regression Channel, which utilises statistical concepts like standard deviation to help identify the potential range of price action. Understanding how to interpret and use the Linear Regression Channel in conjunction with standard deviation can provide valuable information for traders to make informed decisions. What is Linear Regression Channel? The Linear Regression Channel is a technical analysis tool that plots a straight line based on the linear regression of the price data over a specific period. This line serves as the central axis of the channel, with two parallel lines drawn above and below it, representing the upper and lower ranges. The channel helps traders visualize the general direction of the trend and possible areas of support and resistance. Calculating the Linear Regression Channel involves fitting a linear regression line to the price data, usually based on the closing prices, over a defined look-back period. The resulting line represents the average or mean of the price data over that period. Understanding Standard Deviation Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion or variability of the price data around the linear regression line. In the context of a Linear Regression Channel, standard deviation helps determine the width of the channel, which indicates the potential volatility or uncertainty of price movements. When the standard deviation is high, it means the price data is spread out widely from the regression line, indicating higher volatility. Conversely, a low standard deviation suggests that the price data is closely clustered around the regression line, indicating lower volatility. Using Scoring to Assess Proximity to the Linear Regression Channel The term "scoring" in this context refers to a numerical value representing the distance of the current price from the linear regression line. This score is typically normalised to a scale between 0 and 10, with 1 indicating the lowest proximity to the regression line and 10 indicating the highest proximity. The relationship between the scoring and the Linear Regression Channel is as follows: Scoring Close to 0: When the scoring is closer to 0, it suggests that the current price is near the lower range of the Linear Regression Channel. This indicates that the market is potentially oversold, and the price may be due for a correction or bounce towards the mean or central axis of the channel. Scoring Close to 10: Conversely, when the scoring is closer to 10, it suggests that the current price is near the upper range of the Linear Regression Channel. This indicates that the market is potentially overbought, and the price may be due for a correction or a bounce back towards the mean. Interpreting Linear Regression Channel and Standard Deviation Together Combining the Linear Regression Channel and standard deviation provides a more comprehensive picture of the market's behaviour. When the standard deviation is wider, the channel broadens, indicating higher volatility. In contrast, a narrower standard deviation results in a narrower channel, suggesting lower volatility. Traders can use this information to: Identify Potential Reversal Zones: When the price action reaches the upper or lower range of the channel, coupled with high standard deviation, it may indicate an overextended market and a potential reversal in the opposite direction. Recognise Trend Strength: If the price remains within a narrow channel and the standard deviation is relatively low, it suggests a stable and well-defined trend, while a wide channel with a high standard deviation indicates a more erratic or uncertain market. Conclusion The Linear Regression Channel and standard deviation are valuable tools for traders to gain insights into the potential range of price action and market volatility. When combined, they can provide a clearer understanding of trend direction, potential reversal points, and overall market sentiment. By using the scoring system to assess proximity to the channel, traders can make more informed decisions, enhancing their ability to navigate the dynamic world of financial markets. However, as with any technical analysis tool, it is essential to use these indicators in conjunction with other forms of analysis and risk management strategies to make well-rounded and informed trading decisions. Top 40 share scoring and selected markets The bar chart displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index. This dynamic bar chart is updated weekly, providing valuable insights.

The market overview serves as a comprehensive snapshot of the financial markets, providing a summary of various asset classes, sectors, and indices. Its primary purpose is to showcase the performance of different financial instruments over a specific period.

To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Good day. Thank you for taking the time to visit this page. My overall goal is to provide clients of Unum Capital with leading, high quality information by conveying my best interpretation of the most relevant market information in order for you, as a client to: (1) understand and profit from the potential opportunities and manage the potential risks and (2) make informed decisions around trading opportunities. To read my full research philosophy, please visit the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/research-philosophy. To continue reading today's research, please scroll down. Resource Centre: Price Cycle - The Yellow Line is an example which illustrates how a share price can develop over time, moving between the various short term technical ratings. Monday 25 March 2024, 06h30 | Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps, as of Friday's close. Monday 25 March 2024, 06h30  | JSE Sector Ratings Change Monday 25 March 2024, 06h30  | JSE Relative Sector Ratings, as of Friday’s close (Sector Rating Relative To The Top 40 Index) Monday 25 March 2024, 06h30  | JSE Relative Sector Status and Change, as of yesterday’s close (Sector Rating Change Relative To The Top 40 Index) Monday 25 March 2024, 06h30 | ABG Absa Group | The candle structure reflects strong selling pressure and the trend is down. While we do not attempt to catch/call the exact bottom, we can prepare ourselves for when the candle structure improves which could signal a potential short term bullish reversal. Here’s what to note:  (1) High Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold (2) Buy alerts on two time frames (short term & medium term) - see the Tactical Trading Guide below: ABG Absa Group WEEKLY CHART - Zooming out, you'll also note the share trading around a horizontal support zone as well as around the 200-week SMA. Monday 25 March 2024, 06h30 | MRP Mr Price - There are early signs of weakening candle structure. This is developing at/near a multi-month supply range. In addition, the 14-day RSI is printing a negative divergence which is often a precursor to a price decline. The reward-to-risk favours a potential downside reversal. Friday 22 March 2024, 06h30 | Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary on Largest 90 Shares By Market Cap): Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. To Access All 90 Shares, Including Sibanye Stillwater, Anglo American, Bidvest and Shoprite, Click On The Following Link: https://www.unum.capital/post/tactical-trading-guide Monday 25 March 2024, 06h30 | Candlestick Formations form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share code (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period. TOP 15 (STRONGEST) BOTTOM 15 (WEAKEST) Monday 25 March 2024, 06h30 | One of the main themes on the JSE in recent weeks has been the rotation OUT OF FINANCIALS and INTO RESOURCES. Five weeks ago (Monday 19 February), clients of Unum Capital were alerted to this potential development via a relative chart which showed the ratio trading at a key level. Since then, Resource shares have OUTPERFORMED Financial shares by 15.3%. Well done to clients who have been participating in the rotation. The original chart + updated comment is shown below: Monday 25 March 2024, 06h30 | Update: Satrix Resources: The chart below was presented to clients on Wednesday 14 March. Resources have since gained 11.4%. Monday 25 March 2024, 06h30 | Update: AGL Anglo American Plc. Potential price path now being followed, approaching target. Monday 25 March 2024, 06h30 | IMP Impala Platinum (NOW TRADING HIGHER BY +38%). Trading close to R80, from R60 at the time of the buy/long signal which was delivered via the Tactical Trading Guide. The time-stamped reading is shown on the chart below: Monday 25 March 2024, 06h30 | UPDATE: MTN Group - Strong Rally. Clients were previously alerted via the charts below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital 3 Trading Tips Resource Centre Research Disclaimer (Click Here) Research Philosophy - Click Here To Read Top Trading Tips: (1) Let The Candle Confirm (Click Here To Read) (2) Failure & Reclaim (Click here To Read) (3) Igniting Bar (Click Here To Read) Resource Centre (1) Standard Deviation Chartbook Introduction (Click Here) (2) Standard Deviation: Range of Outcomes & Traders Potential Action (Click Here) (3) Optimal Conditions For Bullish & Bearish Trading Setups (Click Here) (4) Core Trading Principles (5) Core Macro Principles Systematic Insights: Timely Trading Signals Via The Tactical Trading Guide: MTN, MNP, TBS, SBK, DSY, TKG, MTM, HAR, GFI, IMP (Click Here)