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- Analyst thoughts: Top 40 index
VIEW RETAINED: THE BLUE PQ TRIANGLE PATTERN IS PART OF THE PRIMARY BULL TREND The illustrated view of a PQ consolidation, followed by the eventual return of the primary bull trend to T1 and beyond, is retained. The expected upside off S0/Q to P is in the latter stages of forming phase D. The final phase E to S0 and Q should be activated on a breach of R0. Triangle patterns are complex and can have shortened legs and even interim trend line breaches. Current market action is typical of these types of patterns. R1* and S1* are the pivotal levels to allow for ad hoc moves. Target and re-assessment levels Important levels: R1* and S1* Primary trend: PQ ranging, followed by gains to T1* Prevailing trend: Downside off P to S0 Monthly range: P/S0 Technical rating: Medium
- Analyst thoughts: EUR/USD x-rate
VIEW RETAINED: BULL TREND TO 1.1655 REMAINS APPLICABLE The general outlook of a 1,2,3,4,5 bull trend to R2 is materialising. The bull trend started off line Q with the LM formation being phase 2 of the 1,2,3,4,5 bull trend. Definitive bullish price action from S2 and subsequent break of S0* has further confirmed the bullish outlook. Slowing gains to the initial R1 target should be followed by an R1/S0* corrective phase before further gains occur. This should address growing RSI overbought conditions (highlighted). S0* is now the pivotal level for the medium-term bullish stance. Target and re-assessment levels Important levels: S0* Primary trend: Gains to R1 and R2 Monthly Range: R1/S0* Prevailing trend: Slowing gains to R1 Technical rating: Medium
- Key markets
The analysis might be incorrect due to some news events that occurred since the analysis was posted. Price action is the movement of a market's price plotted over time and forms the basis for all technical analyses of an index, shares, commodity or other asset charts. The grey line to each market is the anticipated price action that is expected to unfold in the foreseeable future and is independent of time. Please note the following symbols and phrases that will be used for each graph: The "trend" is the price level where a change in trend direction from bullish to bearish and vice versa might occur. The "target" is the most expected price target (profit target) that might be reached with the current analysis (view) remaining intact. The "stop" indicates the price level at which the current technical view or stance will be negated (stop-loss). The "increase exposure" indicates the price level, whereby one might increase some exposure. Major indices S&P 500 index US Nasdaq index Top 40 Index VIX index The reference VIX (CBOE) volatility index measures the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making trading decisions. Commodities Gold $ Brent $ Currencies Bitcoin $ USD/ZAR X-rate EUR/USD X-rate GBP/USD X-rate AUD/USD X-rate The AUD/USD will highlight risk-on and risk-off scenarios for the equity market in general. Risk-on is currently applicable, with caution. Chart of the day Harmony GM Co Ltd (HAR) https://unum.capital/research-disclaimer/
- Relative Rotational Graphs
Relative Rotation Graphs, commonly referred to as RRGs, are a unique visualisation tool for relative strength analysis. Market participants can use RRGs to analyse the relative strength trends of several shares against a common benchmark, and against each other. This will also assist in finding pair or relative trading ideas. The real power of this tool is its ability to plot relative performance on one graph and show true rotation. We have all heard of sector and asset class rotation, but it is hard to visualise this “rotation” sequence on linear charts. RRGs use four quadrants to define the four phases of a relative trend. True rotations can be seen as shares moving from one quadrant to the other over time. Herewith is a summary of an RRG model graph: The arrows on the model graph above show the idealised rotation, which is clockwise. Let's assume a share is currently in the leading quadrant (green) and follow the idealised rotation. Remember, momentum is the leading indicator here and it will be the first to turn. From the leading quadrant, relative momentum will start to level off and momentum will move below 100, which will cause the share to move into the lower right-hand quadrant (weakening). Extended weakness in relative momentum will ultimately affect the trend in relative performance and the ratio will also move below 100, which would put the share into the lagging quadrant (red). Once in the lagging quadrant, the first sign of strength will be an improvement in relative momentum. When momentum crosses above 100, the share will move into the improving quadrant (blue). A share in this quadrant still has a downtrend in relative performance, but momentum is improving and this could foreshadow a move into the leading quadrant (green). Extended strength in relative momentum will ultimately affect the trend in relative performance and the ratio will move above 100. This will push the share into the leading quadrant (green) and the cycle will start over again. Interpretation Before looking at some interpretation guidelines, bear in mind that RRGs are not a trading system and there are no predefined trading rules or signals. Look at RRGs as another type of charting method that is open to interpretation. Different people looking at the same chart will come up with different interpretations. Here are some rules of thumb you may want to follow: The rotational patterns are not always perfectly circular and will not always rotate through all four quadrants in a clockwise manner. These are, after all, financial markets driven by fear and greed. The underlying trend-following model that powers RRG includes a lag period, as do all trend-following models. This means there will already be upward movement in the price relative before the RRG line actually crosses into the leading quadrant. Similarly, the price relative will peak and move lower before the RRG line actually crosses into the lagging quadrant. Shares in the leading quadrant should be on your buy list because they show relative strength. Shares in the weakening quadrant should be on your watch list for deterioration (sell). Shares in the lagging quadrant should be on your avoid list because they show relative weakness. Shares in the improving quadrant should be on your shopping list as potential buys. RRG on its own is not enough for making trading and investment decisions. Instead, RRG is great for channelling your attention to those areas of the market that deserve it. Top 40 index RRG The graph highlights the members of the Top 40 index against the Top 40 index (J200) as a benchmark. The look-back period is the last 5-days. The graph is presented as a snap-shot chart and will be updated daily, using end-of-day data. The JSE shortcode of the shares is used. Disclaimer
- Relative Price Strength - 21 June 2023
Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a trading strategy to assist traders to make more informed trading decisions. At present 135 odd shares are constituents of the JSE All Share index. This number is too large for any trader to screen at frequent intervals. However, the least time-consuming and most objective method is to screen all shares based on a periodic basis using Relative Price Strength (RPS). Traders are rewarded for buying the strongest shares and avoiding the weakest or short-selling those. Strong-performing shares tend to get stronger, while the weak tend to get weaker. This makes sense because markets love their winners and hate their losers. Industry vs sector Although some may think of them as the same, the terms "industry" and "sector" have different meanings. Industry refers to a specific group of similar types of companies, while sector describes a large segment of the economy. In the equity market, the generally accepted terminology cites a sector as a broad classification and an industry as a more narrow one. Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB) is a comprehensive and rules-based, transparent classification methodology based on research and market trends designed to support investment solutions. Its four-tier structure offers a robust system for comparing and analysing like organisations. It consists of 11 Industries., 20 supersectors, 45 sectors, and 173 subsectors. We will use some of this classification methodology in this analysis. We will refer to industries (Industrial, Financial, and Resources) and some sectors. Flow of capital Fund flows or capital flows are a reflection of cash that is flowing in and out of financial assets. Traders and investors can look at the direction of the cash flows for insights into the health of a specific industry, sector, or share of the overall market. If money is flowing into an industry or sector, prices usually tend to increase in value. When money is flowing out of an industry or sector, prices usually tend to decrease in value. When determining the flow of capital into or out of an industry or sector, one can align your trading and investment decisions accordingly. The domestic flow of funds for the industries or headline indices: This analysis is updated on a daily basis using end-of-day data. The lookback period is the last 10 days. Inflow: Financials Outflow: Industrials & Resources JSE shares The table below ranks the shares according to the top 20 inflows and top 20 outflows (the arrows indicate the change from the previous update): JSE sectors The table below ranks the sectors according to the top 10 inflows and top 10 outflows: https://unum.capital/research-disclaimer/






