Search this site

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za I don't to pre-empt a move here but it may be worthwhile keeping you eye on Coffee Futures as it looks to break down here. My initial thought is that traders need to be open the potential for a false breakdown and a reclaim above the 276 level (for now). This is would set up a BUY TRADE. Also note the price trading back at the prior breakout level. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za 🟧 Macro Digestion 🟩 Tactical Recovery ↔️ Neutral The U.S. Dollar Index [99.39] is executing a sharp tactical recovery off its multi-year structural support floor. While the Secular (Monthly) timeframe remains securely anchored in a broad digestion phase, oscillating within a massive historical range, the faster execution timeframes are initiating a localized mean-reversion bounce. The Strategic (Weekly) momentum has stabilized at the Neutral baseline, and the Tactical (Daily) engine has surged into the Strong tier, reflecting active near-term institutional demand. This multi-frame setup indicates that while the broader macro trend lacks directional breakout velocity, buyers are aggressively defending the lower boundaries of the structural box. Because the macro trend is strictly range-bound and the daily velocity is now trading in the middle of this structural equilibrium, the system triggers a ↔️ Neutral signal. Deploying capital directly into the middle of a massive macro range carries sub-optimal reward-to-risk dynamics; patience is required to engage strictly on minor pullbacks or to fade the extremes at defined structural boundaries. MOMENTUM PROFILE Daily Chart (Tactical): Mid Term Momentum is 🟩 STRONG. The daily pulse has hooked aggressively upward into the upper momentum tiers following the successful defense of the 96.60 level. This confirms sustained immediate buying pressure, though the faster tactical engines warn that the near-term velocity is stretching toward overbought territory and may require a brief localized cooldown. Weekly Chart (Strategic): Mid Term Momentum is ↔️ NEUTRAL. The strategic scale has flattened out completely and is resting near the upper bound of the neutral midline. This neutralizes the prior downside swing risk and confirms the asset is executing a choppy, non-directional intermediate consolidation. Monthly Chart (Macro): Mid Term Momentum is ↔️ NEUTRAL. The secular engine remains in a primary digestion phase, tracking sideways in the middle of its bands. This mathematically confirms the asset is neither in a primary secular bull markup nor a terminal bear collapse, but rather absorbing historical volatility within a multi-year cyclical oscillation. STRUCTURAL BREAKDOWN & VELOCITY 1-Day Structure (Impulsive Bounce): The daily chart illustrates a V-shaped recovery with a steep positive slope. Price action has reclaimed its short-term moving averages, confirming active execution velocity as the index bounces from the macro floor. Weekly Structure (Range Defense): The weekly view highlights a textbook double-bottom defense of the critical 96.60 support line. The intermediate trajectory is shifting slightly upward as the asset seeks to mean-revert toward the midpoint of its historical box. Monthly Structure (Secular Base-Building): The multi-year lens showcases DXY digesting the massive 2021-2022 super-cycle markup. It is effectively trapped in a massive structural rectangle, bounded by deep historical support below and immense overhead supply above. CONTRARIAN ASYMMETRY & SUPPORT MAPPING 🟥 Distribution Zone (Tactical Short/Reduce): 104.00 – 106.00. The ultimate overhead supply block and primary range ceiling. Tactical exposure should be aggressively faded or harvested on any unconfirmed relief rallies extending into this cluster. 🔴 Immediate Tactical Support (The Local Pivot): 98.00 – 98.50. The immediate horizontal floor established during the current V-bounce. A minor pullback to this zone offers the safest intraday entry for tactical longs. 🟩 Secondary Support Shelf (The Value Floor): 96.00 – 96.60. The high-conviction structural base and exact origin point of the current rally. This remains the absolute critical line in the sand for macro bulls. 🔵 Primary Macro Support (The Secular Floor): 89.50 – 90.00. The multi-year structural defensive baseline and absolute bottom of the secular trading range. TECHNICAL VALUATION & VARIANCE MATRIX Estimated Technical Fair Value (TFV): 101.50. Calculated as the volume-weighted equilibrium point of the massive multi-year structural range. Current Price Discount: The index currently trades at a -2.07% discount relative to its broader structural TFV, confirming it still resides in the "value" half of the macro box despite the recent daily surge. Tactical Upside Potential: +2.12% to the primary mean-reversion TFV target (101.50) from current levels. Tactical Downside Risk: -2.81% risk down to the high-conviction secondary value floor (96.60). Asymmetry Ratio: At current levels, the mathematical edge lies in standing aside or trading strictly level-to-level. The 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio relative to the range boundaries confirms a purely Neutral market environment. TACTICAL PROBABILITY PROFILE 🟨 LONG: Immediate Market Entry | 45% (Sub-optimal entry in the middle of the local expansion) 🟥 SHORT: Rejection near TFV (101.50) | 65% (High-probability range-bound fade) 🟢 LONG: At 98.20 Tactical Support | 75% (Optimal structural entry on minor pullback) 🔵 LONG: Double-bottom retest at 96.60 | 90% (High-conviction macro defense entry) CORE THESIS The DXY is trapped in a massive, mathematically verified mean-reverting structural range. The divergence between the Neutral macro/strategic baselines and the Strong tactical engine creates a classic localized swing environment. The quantitative edge dictates discipline: avoid chasing the immediate daily green candles into the middle of the box. Actionable long setups will only materialize if the daily pulse relieves its pressure via a sideways flag or a volume-light pullback into the 98.00 immediate tactical pivot, targeting a rotation up to the 101.50 TFV. WHAT CAN CHANGE? 🟦 Bullish Resumption: A sustained weekly close decisively above 106.00 accompanied by a strategic momentum hook into the Strong tier would signal a total regime shift, breaking the macro digestion phase and re-initiating a secular dollar bull run. 🟥 Structural Breakdown Validation: A weekly close slicing cleanly and decisively below the immediate 96.60 floor would completely shatter the macro support structure, forcing a high-probability, high-velocity markdown toward the 90.00 secular base. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (26 January) Global Idea: iShares MSCI Norway ETF Buy at $30.83 or lower Target(s): $38.00 Stop-loss: $27.30 Code: ENOR Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Recently, we reached our long term target at R203. This is an update on the current reward-to-risk. Previous Post (26 February): MTN Group: Long Term Target Exceeded at R203. Today's High = R207 Full move of +38% vs the buy re-entry range. Please see the previous post (further below) where the R203 target is mentioned. Previous Post: 18 January (Link To Post > https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn1801 Medium Term Regime: High Bullish Momentum Biggest Technical Risk: A false breakout, a slowdown in upward momentum and a bearish reversal. The share is due a pullback however, the long term target is near the R203 level (prior swing highs). Previous Post (02 January 2026) Take Profits on MTN Group: Running +12% (Short Term Traders) The share traded into the buy re-entry range (R148 - R151) with a strong rebound a high of R172 on the first trading day of 2026. Well done short term traders. Previous Post (12 December): 2x Opportunities: One Sell. One Buy. Same Share MTN has given clients opportunities on both the Sell (Short) and Buy (Long) side. Intraday Traders: Take Profits on this MTN Group rebound out of the buy re-entry range. Strong rebound from 14950c to above R158. Ultra Short Term and Short Term Traders: Hold Previous Post (30 November) MTN Group: Shorts in the Money + Where to Buy Next (Short Term Traders) Update on 30-Nov: MTN is now R18 lower from the sell re-entry range, with the share having sold off further on Friday (-2.61%). The candle structure continues to deteriorate, reflecting aggressive selling pressure. For short term/active traders, the next best provisional buy re-entry range (for a small rebound) is 14800c - 15100c. The updated chart, as of Friday's close is shown below: Previous Post (Friday, 28 November, Pre-Market): MTN Group: Shorts in the Money + Where to Buy Next In the previous note, our CORE THESIS was that the share was 'Structurally Bullish, But Extremely Overbought' with 17160c to 17500c was marked as a key resistance level. Since then the share was rejected off this range on multiple occasions with a new multi-week low of 16105c being reached during yesterday's session. The 8 and 21-day EMA has been breached while the price close the session below a flat to rising 8-week EMA. The next best provisional buy re-entry range is marked at the rising 21-week EMA which is roughly in line with the previous breakout level (14867c to 15128c but subject to change as the news flow and price action develops. Trading Notes (Where Applicable): READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. Previous Post MTN Group: Sharp Pullback (-1000c) From Exhaustion Zone (In Line With Note As discussed (exhaustion zone circled in red). 🎥Watch Video: MTN Group - Bullish Reversal From 21-Week EMA (+24%) + Updated View Previous Post (03 September) 🎥Watch: Discussing MTN Group (21-Week EMA Strategy) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Summary: Insurers are the absolute standout this week, staging a dramatic, board-sweeping surge from a completely Neutral profile to establish a decisively Strong footing across the Base, Mid, and Short Term horizons. Technology and Consumer Staples are the primary turnaround stories; Technology rapidly accelerated from Weak shorter-term trends to hit a Strong Short-Term state, while Consumer Staples successfully upgraded its Mid-Term footing to Strong to match its sustained Short-Term momentum. Meanwhile, Chemicals and Luxury Goods continue to maintain serious strength, with Chemicals shaking off last week's Short-Term pause to rebound back to Strong, and Luxury Goods defending its Strong Mid- and Short-Term positioning. On the cooling front, Diversified Miners have visibly lost their previous High Bullish Short-Term velocity, stalling at Neutral, though they maintain extreme High Bullish momentum across the Base and Mid Term. The precious metals block highlights a severe structural deterioration; both Gold Miners and Platinum Miners suffered total collapses of their Strong Base Term foundations, plunging to Neutral, while Short-Term momentum bled into Weak territory. Finally, Paper & Pulp and Consumer Discretionary continue to languish under persistent multi-horizon weakness, though Consumer Discretionary managed to stabilize its Short-Term momentum from High Bearish to Neutral, alongside Coal Miners and Banks which settled into broad shorter-term neutrality (with Banks notably securing a Strong Base Term upgrade). Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za I did not get the opportunity to update this yesterday, but the share managed to trade only a few cents shy of the R91 target. Well done to clients who latched onto the opportunity to trade. The high was 9059c. Previous Post (Monday, 27 April): This Retailer Is Looking To Break Out Above R80. Measured Move = R91 Boxer Retail (BOX) Measured move targeting = R91. Showing relative strength in the retail sector. Strong price action below multi-month resistance. Cup and handle / base breakout technical formation. An increase in volume at the breakout, will add higher conviction. Now trading at 7895c. Invalid below 7400c. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Update: The share traded into the lower boundary of the buy re-entry range and has seen a strong rebound. Nintendo is a name we previous highlighted as a BUY idea, with the appreciating as much as 64% by 11 August (the last time we updated it). See below: Previous Post (Sunday 03 May 2026): Global Ideas: Nintendo's Model Trigger - Lower Levels Expected Before Tactical Rebound Buy Between 6900 - 7300 Stop-loss: 6200 Target: Open READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Capital Flow Analysis 🟩 Institutional Accumulation (Where Money is Flowing IN) Capital is aggressively clustering in defensive, non-discretionary sectors and specialized high-yield compounders. Institutions are paying up for premium earnings certainty and structural re-rating stories: • Defensive Safe Havens (Food Retail & Beverages): Strong, unyielding staircase accumulation dominates names like BOX (+18.66% 1M), SHP, and ANH. Capital is using these as defensive liquidity anchors. • Rate Pivot Front-Running (REITs & Real Estate): Sector breadth continues to heal cleanly. Steady institutional bids are moving into names like RES, RDF, ATT, and VKE as smart money positions ahead of an easing cycle. • Industrial Cap-Ex Cycles: High-quality, low-volatility Alpha is finding a home in AFE and PPC, driven by private-sector infrastructure replacement. • Select Financial & Momentum Leaders: Focused inflows are actively protecting the 6M upward slopes of specialized asset managers and robust bank profiles (SBK, RNI, NY1, N91). --- ⬜ Horizontal Parking & Indecision (Where Money is SITTING) A significant portion of institutional capital has shifted into a risk-averse, "wait-and-see" posture, compressing price action into tight horizontal corridors: • Large-Cap Resource Digestion: Diversified miners (AGL, BHG) are taking a breather, balancing multi-month cycle gains via horizontal distribution. • Defensive Capital Hoarding: Telecommunications (MTN) and mega-caps (NPN, PRX) are acting as high-yield volatility dampers. Volume structures are cooling here as funds use them to park cash. • Sideways Banking Chop: A large swath of the banking index (FSR, ABG) remains trapped in a neutral lateral drift, awaiting clearer macroeconomic catalysts. --- 🟪 Exit & Capitulation (Where Money is Flowing OUT) Liquidations are heavy and targeted, exposing severe consumer friction and structural supply chain distress: • The Discretionary Retail Epicenter: Absolute institutional abandonment across Apparel & Footwear (TFG, TRU, WHL). Despite horizontal stabilization patterns attempting to frame a floor in PPH, the broader sector reflects deep consumer exhaustion. • Precious Metals Liquidation: A painful multi-term reset is underway in gold and PGM counters. Sharp near-term waterfall declines (ANG, GFI, HAR, SSW) are actively fracturing older structural support tiers. • Supply Chain & Health Sector Decay: Margin compression continues to lock agricultural proxies (ARL, RBO) into deep value traps, while hospital management groups (NTC, LHC) face severe multi-timeframe sponsorship decay. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital