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Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (30 July): Vertiv Holdings: Leader in Digital Infrastructure. Strong Results + Raised Guidance. Potential Re-Acceleration of Bullish Momentum Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za JSE TOP 40 INDEX (J200) 🟩 Structural Resumption 🟩 Tactical Consolidation ⬆️ Buy on pullback 🟩 The JSE Top 40 Index remains structurally positioned for an upward expansion, though immediate price action is executing a healthy, shallow digestion of the recent local breakout. The Secular (Monthly) trend remains firmly anchored, and the Strategic (Weekly) momentum continues to sit comfortably at the neutral baseline—acting as a de-risked foundation for the next impulsive leg. The Tactical (Daily) timeframe has cooled slightly after clearing local resistance, preventing an immediate overbought redline. Because the broader "Weight of the Evidence" confirms an intact macro uptrend and immediate indicators are successfully resetting through time, the system triggers a Buy on pullback signal, favoring patience over the next few sessions to capture an optimized entry toward the 106,500 structural floor. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Research/data as of Friday 08 May at 12pm. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published Thursday evening 07 May for Friday 08 May. Note: In addition to this 13% rebound, we also recently recommended the share, triggered by the price action model. The subsequent rebound was 45%, rewarding clients who chose to participate in the trade. Previous Post (Monday 04 May 2026): Have You Looked At Harmony Gold From This Angle? For now, the share remains in a long term consolidation phase, a medium term downward trend and in a short term pullback. A spike in bullish momentum, similar to that seen in late March 2025 could trigger a momentum run. We await this trigger which will be confirmation of a new leg higher. Note: we recently recommended the share, triggered by the price action model. The subsequent rebound was 45%, rewarding clients who chose to participate in the trade. Analyst Disclosure: The analysis/commentary below has been generated using an artificial intelligence tool, based on the analyst's own data. Harmony Gold is currently navigating a deep structural digestion phase following a spectacular multi-year secular uptrend. While the macro Mid Term momentum has completely reset from extreme exhaustion levels on the Monthly chart, the Daily and Weekly execution timeframes remain trapped in a choppy, sideways-to-lower corrective pattern. This synchronized cooling has pushed the momentum pulses back into the neutral/weak bands, signaling that tactical buyers currently lack the conviction to force a new markup phase. Because the underlying macro cycle has successfully burned off its froth but immediate tactical indicators offer zero directional edge, the system triggers a ↔️ Neutral signal for tactical traders, while shifting to an "Accumulation Watch" for long-term participants eyeing the structural value floors. CLASSIFICATION: ↔️ Neutral MOMENTUM PROFILE Daily Chart (Tactical): Mid Term Momentum is WEAK/NEUTRAL. Following the corrective breakdown from the all-time highs, tactical momentum has been unable to sustain any upward trajectory and is currently oscillating in the lower-middle bands. This confirms a lack of immediate upside velocity, suggesting the asset is still seeking a definitive tactical floor before any sustained rally can materialize. Weekly Chart (Swing): Mid Term Momentum is NEUTRAL. On the weekly scale, momentum has retreated sharply from its historical peaks and is now positioned firmly in the Neutral tier. This indicates a protracted "regime transition" where the previous parabolic swing has terminated, and the stock is actively absorbing overhead supply through a price- and time-based correction. Monthly Chart (Macro): Mid Term Momentum is NEUTRAL (Reset). The secular view has undergone a highly constructive cooling period. Monthly momentum, which was previously pinned deeply in the OVERBOUGHT tier during the explosive run above 40,000c, has now washed completely back to the Neutral baseline. Historically, this deep reset is required to build the foundational energy for the next macro expansion leg. CONTRARIAN ASYMMETRY Distribution Zone (Tactical Short/Reduce): The 31,000c – 34,000c range acts as a heavy, high-probability distribution ceiling representing the recent sequence of lower-highs. Near-term rallies into this supply cluster are mathematically susceptible to failure given the broader absence of underlying daily momentum. Accumulation Zone (Contrarian Long): The optimal zone to scale into long-term core positions sits significantly lower, in the 21,500c – 23,000c range. This aligns with the recent capitulation wicks and major structural breakout bases from previous years that should act as primary support zones. CORE THESIS Harmony Gold is currently in a "Macro Digestion & Base-Building" phase. While the Daily Mid Term momentum is struggling to gain traction, the Monthly Mid Term momentum has successfully bled off its historic "Redline" exhaustion. The statistical probability favors continued sideways-to-lower chop as the longer-term moving averages catch up to price. Strategically, this favors ignoring the noise in the middle of the current range (near 26,500c), fading tactical strength toward 31,000c+, and patiently waiting for a momentum "hook" near the 21,500c neighborhood to initiate fresh secular long exposure. WHAT CAN CHANGE? The current primary thesis is a Cyclical Correction within a Secular Bull Market. Here is what would change this outlook: Technical Triggers (Shift to Bullish Resurgence): If price reclaims and closes weekly above 34,000c with the Mid Term momentum shifting aggressively back into the Strong tier, it would signal that the macro correction is complete and a retest of the all-time highs is underway. Fundamental / Macro Triggers: A sudden, systemic re-acceleration in the ZAR-denominated gold price (driven by either a global spot gold melt-up or severe South African Rand depreciation) would aggressively alter the earnings profile and force an immediate technical re-rating. Technical Triggers (Confirmation of Deeper Flush): A weekly close below 21,000c would confirm a structural failure of the current basing attempt, likely triggering a cascade liquidation toward the much deeper 16,000c primary support baseline. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za With today's massive gap higher, here's what the updated price action Model says: Previous Post (06 May 2025) S&P 500 Index: Early Signs of Short Term Overbought Conditions / 🟩 Ride Trend / 🟧 Manage Short-Term Risk STATUS OVERVIEW TECHNICAL CONDITION: 🟩 SYNCHRONIZED UPTREND CATEGORY: 🟩 BULLISH / TREND FOLLOWING TREND STATUS Daily Trend: 🟧 High Bullish / Overbought Weekly Trend: 🟩 Strong Uptrend Monthly Trend: 🟩 Secular Strength Primary Action: 🟩 Ride Trend / 🟧 Manage Short-Term Risk CORE THESIS: Firing on All Cylinders, Running Hot Tactically The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is currently exhibiting a dominant, synchronized structural uptrend. The intermediate and long-term momentum profiles perfectly reflect a robust bull market: the Weekly and Monthly structural indicators sit firmly in 'Strong' territory, confirming powerful institutional accumulation without long-term topping characteristics. However, caution is warranted on the tactical scale; the Daily Mid Term momentum is reading 'High Bullish Momentum' and has reached overbought extremes. This suggests the secular tailwinds are fully intact, but the short-term cycle is running exceptionally hot. Verdict: 🟩 RIDE THE TREND / 🟧 TRAIL STOPS / 🟥 DO NOT CHASE VERTICAL DAILY EXTENSIONS. STRUCTURAL PROFILE (Based on Core Momentum Data) DAILY: Mid Term ➔ 🟧 HIGH BULLISH / OVERBOUGHT WEEKLY: Structural Trend ➔ 🟩 STRONG MONTHLY: Secular Cycle ➔ 🟩 STRONG Profile Alignment: The momentum stack tells a story of an advanced and powerful bull market. The structural baseline across Weekly and Monthly timeframes is perfectly aligned in a 🟩 'Strong' posture, providing immense underlying support. The caveat lies in the Tactical Daily chart, which is highly 🟧 elevated and deeply overbought, hinting that while the trend is your friend, short-term exhaustion or a mean-reversion pullback is increasingly likely. STRUCTURAL TIME FRAME ANALYSIS 🟧 Daily Setup (Approaching the Ceiling): The Daily chart serves as an early warning system for near-term traders. The Mid Term indicator is reading 'Overbought' following a steep, vertical climb. This does not mean an immediate structural crash, but it heavily implies that the asset is vulnerable to a short-term tactical pullback or sideways consolidation to digest the recent surge. 🟩 Weekly Alignment (The Trend Engine): The Weekly chart remains the primary engine driving this index higher. The Structural Trend indicator is resolutely 'Strong'. It recently broke out of consolidation with clear higher highs and higher lows. There are no signs of distribution on this timeframe; it is a textbook hold for trend followers. 🟩 Monthly Strength (Structural Tailwinds): The Monthly chart confirms that the underlying secular cycle is fully supportive of the advance. With the Secular Cycle indicator also printing 'Strong', long-term capital remains highly committed. This structural tailwind acts as a heavy buffer against any significant short-term market shocks. INTERACTION VERDICT - Dynamic Trend Following: "You do not sell a market with 🟩 'Strong' Weekly and Monthly readings simply because the Daily feels extended. However, the hot Daily pulse means you must transition from aggressive short-term accumulation to strict trend management. 🟩 Ride the strength, but 🟧 implement trailing stops to protect against sudden tactical dips." CATEGORIZATION & STRATEGY Daily Timeframe (Mid Term) Primary Category: 🟧 EXTENDED EXPANSION Impending Transition: 🟧 MEAN REVERSION / PULLBACK RISK Strategic Overlay: 🟧 TRAIL STOPS / 🟥 DON'T CHASE Weekly Timeframe (Structural Trend) Primary Category: 🟩 STRUCTURAL UPTREND Impending Transition: 🟩 CONTINUATION Strategic Overlay: 🟩 BUY MINOR DIPS Monthly Timeframe (Secular Cycle) Primary Category: 🟩 SECULAR BULL Impending Transition: 🟩 PERSISTENT STRENGTH Strategic Overlay: 🟩 HOLD CORE EXPOSURE STRATEGIC INTERPRETATIONS BY TIMEFRAME 🟧 TACTICAL (Next 2 to 10 Days): "This is where the warning light blinks. The Daily Mid Term momentum is deeply 'Overbought'. The risk/reward for initiating new, aggressive long positions here is poor. Big-picture forward returns are fine, but near-term chop is highly probable." Action: 🟧 Prepare for Consolidation / Trail Stops 🟩 INTERMEDIATE (Next 2 to 6 Weeks): "The path of least resistance is firmly up. The 'Strong' Weekly trend suggests any sharp daily pullbacks are likely to be met with institutional buying. Utilize those inevitable daily dips to scale into tactical positions." Action: 🟩 Buy Shallow Pullbacks 🟩 STRUCTURAL (Next 2 to 6 Months): "The Monthly baseline is your core anchor. A 'Strong' secular cycle implies a highly favorable holding environment. Let your winners run and do not pre-empt a macro top." Action: 🟩 Let Profits Run KEY RISKS TO THESIS 🟥 Tactical Rollover (Bear Risk) Scenario: The Daily 'Overbought' momentum aggressively reverses, triggering a broader market correction that cuts through the 7,200 support tier. Impact: Late buyers who chased the 7,300+ breakout get caught in a swift, sharp drawdown before the structural Weekly trend has a chance to catch up and provide support. 🟩 Blow-Off Top (Bull Risk) Scenario: The index ignores the extended Daily state and enters a true 'melt-up' toward 7,500 and beyond. Impact: Prematurely taking profits or hedging because the Daily timeframe looked "too hot" results in missing a highly explosive, lucrative portion of the breakout. DECISION LOGIC Current State: "Synchronized Trending (with Short-Term Overextension)" Question: Trend Alignment intact? 🟩 Yes (Weekly/Monthly remain 'Strong') ➔ 🟩 RIDE TREND / HOLD CORE 🟧 Neutral (Daily mean-reversion pullback occurs) ➔ 🟩 BUY THE DIP 🟥 No (Weekly breaks market structure) ➔ 🟥 TIGHTEN STOPS HEAVILY PRICE PROJECTIONS: FORWARD MODELING 🟩 BULL CASE ("Melt-Up Extension"): Target ~7,500 - 7,600 | Probability: 30% The index defies near-term gravity. The Daily Mid Term momentum remains pinned in absolute overbought limits as price goes vertical toward major psychological resistance. 🟧 BASE CASE ("Measured Consolidation"): Target ~7,100 - 7,200 | Probability: 50% The asset digests its recent vertical move. A healthy sideways consolidation or shallow pullback occurs down to the recent breakout zones, alleviating Daily momentum pressure before resuming the uptrend. 🟥 BEAR CASE ("Intermediate Correction"): Target ~6,600 - 6,800 | Probability: 20% A macro catalyst snaps the buying pressure. The Daily trend rolls over hard, forcing a deeper structural correction back toward the primary Weekly support zones established earlier in the year. SCENARIO PLANNING 🟩 Respecting the Trend: In an environment where Weekly and Monthly indicators are perfectly aligned in 'Strong' territory, attempting to short the market is a low-probability endeavor. You must respect the dominant directional flow. 🟧 Managing the Tactical: However, because the Daily pulse is running at Overbought extremes, blindly buying the current highs is reckless. Transition from a mindset of 'aggressive accumulation' to 'patient entry and trend management'. EXECUTION PROTOCOL PRIMARY: 🟩 Ride the Core Trend, 🟧 Manage the Daily Extremes. 🟩 Step 1: Maintain core structural long exposure as long as the Weekly momentum indicator holds its 'Strong' rating. 🟧 Step 2: Cease adding new capital on aggressive daily up-days. Wait exclusively for multi-day pullbacks to alleviate the extreme momentum reading before deploying fresh capital. 🟥 Step 3: Implement a robust trailing stop system on tactical positions to mathematically protect profits in the event the short-term cycle suddenly mean-reverts. CONCLUSION The S&P 500 Index requires discipline right now. The structural underpinnings of this rally are magnificent, supported by highly resilient 🟩 'Strong' indicators on both the Weekly and Monthly charts. This dictates that the core strategy must remain heavily biased to the upside. Yet, the tactical landscape requires nuanced risk management; the Daily Mid Term pulse is burning hot. 🟩 Investors should continue to ride this lucrative secular wave, but the time for reckless daily accumulation has passed. 🟧 Secure your base, trail your stops, and wait for the market to cool off tactically before sizing up further. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Warning given. Previous Post (Saturday, 02 May): 🛢️Trading Sasol: Key Levels You Need To Know + Bull-Bear Checklist + Momentum Trajectory DISTRIBUTION: Swing high resistance levels are ~R272 (medium term), ~R320 (long term). Trading around these levels would push the share into an extreme overbought range. RE-ACCUMULTAION: Confluence of the 75-day EMA and 200-week SMA between R170 and R180. MONTHLY = OVERBOUGHT WEEKLY = HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT DAILY = STRONG Recently, Sasol exceeded our medium term target of R175. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za BHP Group Ltd. continues to execute a powerful secular breakout into new all-time highs, but immediate tactical risks are escalating 🟥. While the Weekly and Monthly execution timeframes remain perfectly clustered in the highly energized "High Bullish Momentum" 🟧 tier, the Daily timeframe has now breached the extreme limits and officially triggered an "Overbought" 🟥 reading. This indicates that the immediate buying panic has reached mathematical exhaustion levels. Because the underlying macro trend is exhibiting exceptional relative strength, but the fastest tactical indicator is now redlining, the system maintains an ⬆️ Buy on pullback 🟩 signal for tactical participants, strongly advising against chasing the breakout at these new highs. CLASSIFICATION: ⬆️ Buy on pullback 🟩 MOMENTUM PROFILE Daily Chart (Tactical): Mid Term Momentum is 🟥 OVERBOUGHT. Following the relentless markup phase over the past 48 hours, the tactical momentum has surged past the upper boundary and is now pinned in the Overbought tier. This indicates that immediate upward velocity is mathematically unsustainable without a healthy tactical breather to digest these recent gains. Buyers chasing here are paying peak premium. Weekly Chart (Swing): Mid Term Momentum is 🟧 HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT. On the weekly scale, momentum remains highly energized following the breakout from the protracted multi-year consolidation. This confirms that the medium-term structural trend is driven by aggressive institutional participation, though it is knocking on the door of swing-level extension. Monthly Chart (Macro): Mid Term Momentum is 🟧 HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT. The secular view confirms the broader supercycle. The monthly momentum continues to hook upward aggressively in perfect synchronization with the swing timeframe. This long-term alignment confirms the validity of the breakout, supporting significantly higher prices over the coming quarters before terminal macro exhaustion is reached. CONTRARIAN ASYMMETRY 🟥 Distribution Zone (Tactical Short/Reduce): The 72,000c – 75,000c range acts as the next major psychological and Fibonacci extension target in blue-sky territory. Fading rallies into this zone is mathematically prudent for tactical profit-taking, especially now that daily momentum has crossed into extreme overbought territory. 🟩 Accumulation Zone (Contrarian Long): The optimal zone to accumulate core positions sits lower, in the 63,000c – 65,000c range. This aligns perfectly with the massive multi-month resistance ceiling that has just been decisively shattered, which must now serve as a formidable "Value Floor" on any corrective retest. CORE THESIS BHP is currently in a "Synchronized Secular Breakout" phase, but it has officially reached tactical extension. With the Daily Mid Term momentum crossing into the 🟥 Overbought tier, the "Rubber Band" is stretched to its absolute immediate limit. While the path of least resistance structurally remains higher, chasing the absolute highs near 69,100c carries exceedingly poor immediate reward-to-risk asymmetry. Strategically, this favors aggressively utilizing trailing stops on existing longs and patiently waiting for a tactical daily cooldown—or a retest of the 65,000c breakout origin 🟩—to safely deploy heavy new capital. WHAT CAN CHANGE? The current primary thesis is a Confirmed Breakout currently at Tactical Extension. Here is what would change this outlook: 🟥 Technical Triggers (Shift to Parabolic Blow-Off): If the price refuses to pull back and instead accelerates violently above 72,000c, dragging the Weekly and Monthly timeframes deep into the Overbought tier alongside the Daily, it would signal a parabolic terminal blow-off phase where risk management must be drastically tightened. 🟧 Fundamental / Macro Triggers: A sudden, severe macroeconomic shock in China or a collapse in global iron ore and copper prices would immediately alter the forward earnings fundamentals, forcing a fundamental rejection of this breakout. 🟥 Technical Triggers (Confirmation of Bull Trap/Bearish Flush): A weekly close back below 59,000c (the previous major swing low structure) would be the first confirmation that the current breakout was a massive institutional liquidity trap, completely invalidating the bullish structure. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za STATUS OVERVIEW TECHNICAL CONDITION: 🟩 SYNCHRONIZED UPTREND CATEGORY: 🟩 BULLISH / TREND FOLLOWING TREND STATUS Daily Trend: 🟧 High Bullish / Overbought Weekly Trend: 🟩 Strong Uptrend Monthly Trend: 🟩 Secular Strength Primary Action: 🟩 Ride Trend / 🟧 Manage Short-Term Risk CORE THESIS: Firing on All Cylinders, Running Hot Tactically The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is currently exhibiting a dominant, synchronized structural uptrend. The intermediate and long-term momentum profiles perfectly reflect a robust bull market: the Weekly and Monthly structural indicators sit firmly in 'Strong' territory, confirming powerful institutional accumulation without long-term topping characteristics. However, caution is warranted on the tactical scale; the Daily Mid Term momentum is reading 'High Bullish Momentum' and has reached overbought extremes. This suggests the secular tailwinds are fully intact, but the short-term cycle is running exceptionally hot. Verdict: 🟩 RIDE THE TREND / 🟧 TRAIL STOPS / 🟥 DO NOT CHASE VERTICAL DAILY EXTENSIONS. STRUCTURAL PROFILE (Based on Core Momentum Data) DAILY: Mid Term ➔ 🟧 HIGH BULLISH / OVERBOUGHT WEEKLY: Structural Trend ➔ 🟩 STRONG MONTHLY: Secular Cycle ➔ 🟩 STRONG Profile Alignment: The momentum stack tells a story of an advanced and powerful bull market. The structural baseline across Weekly and Monthly timeframes is perfectly aligned in a 🟩 'Strong' posture, providing immense underlying support. The caveat lies in the Tactical Daily chart, which is highly 🟧 elevated and deeply overbought, hinting that while the trend is your friend, short-term exhaustion or a mean-reversion pullback is increasingly likely. STRUCTURAL TIME FRAME ANALYSIS 🟧 Daily Setup (Approaching the Ceiling): The Daily chart serves as an early warning system for near-term traders. The Mid Term indicator is reading 'Overbought' following a steep, vertical climb. This does not mean an immediate structural crash, but it heavily implies that the asset is vulnerable to a short-term tactical pullback or sideways consolidation to digest the recent surge. 🟩 Weekly Alignment (The Trend Engine): The Weekly chart remains the primary engine driving this index higher. The Structural Trend indicator is resolutely 'Strong'. It recently broke out of consolidation with clear higher highs and higher lows. There are no signs of distribution on this timeframe; it is a textbook hold for trend followers. 🟩 Monthly Strength (Structural Tailwinds): The Monthly chart confirms that the underlying secular cycle is fully supportive of the advance. With the Secular Cycle indicator also printing 'Strong', long-term capital remains highly committed. This structural tailwind acts as a heavy buffer against any significant short-term market shocks. INTERACTION VERDICT - Dynamic Trend Following: "You do not sell a market with 🟩 'Strong' Weekly and Monthly readings simply because the Daily feels extended. However, the hot Daily pulse means you must transition from aggressive short-term accumulation to strict trend management. 🟩 Ride the strength, but 🟧 implement trailing stops to protect against sudden tactical dips." CATEGORIZATION & STRATEGY Daily Timeframe (Mid Term) Primary Category: 🟧 EXTENDED EXPANSION Impending Transition: 🟧 MEAN REVERSION / PULLBACK RISK Strategic Overlay: 🟧 TRAIL STOPS / 🟥 DON'T CHASE Weekly Timeframe (Structural Trend) Primary Category: 🟩 STRUCTURAL UPTREND Impending Transition: 🟩 CONTINUATION Strategic Overlay: 🟩 BUY MINOR DIPS Monthly Timeframe (Secular Cycle) Primary Category: 🟩 SECULAR BULL Impending Transition: 🟩 PERSISTENT STRENGTH Strategic Overlay: 🟩 HOLD CORE EXPOSURE STRATEGIC INTERPRETATIONS BY TIMEFRAME 🟧 TACTICAL (Next 2 to 10 Days): "This is where the warning light blinks. The Daily Mid Term momentum is deeply 'Overbought'. The risk/reward for initiating new, aggressive long positions here is poor. Big-picture forward returns are fine, but near-term chop is highly probable." Action: 🟧 Prepare for Consolidation / Trail Stops 🟩 INTERMEDIATE (Next 2 to 6 Weeks): "The path of least resistance is firmly up. The 'Strong' Weekly trend suggests any sharp daily pullbacks are likely to be met with institutional buying. Utilize those inevitable daily dips to scale into tactical positions." Action: 🟩 Buy Shallow Pullbacks 🟩 STRUCTURAL (Next 2 to 6 Months): "The Monthly baseline is your core anchor. A 'Strong' secular cycle implies a highly favorable holding environment. Let your winners run and do not pre-empt a macro top." Action: 🟩 Let Profits Run KEY RISKS TO THESIS 🟥 Tactical Rollover (Bear Risk) Scenario: The Daily 'Overbought' momentum aggressively reverses, triggering a broader market correction that cuts through the 7,200 support tier. Impact: Late buyers who chased the 7,300+ breakout get caught in a swift, sharp drawdown before the structural Weekly trend has a chance to catch up and provide support. 🟩 Blow-Off Top (Bull Risk) Scenario: The index ignores the extended Daily state and enters a true 'melt-up' toward 7,500 and beyond. Impact: Prematurely taking profits or hedging because the Daily timeframe looked "too hot" results in missing a highly explosive, lucrative portion of the breakout. DECISION LOGIC Current State: "Synchronized Trending (with Short-Term Overextension)" Question: Trend Alignment intact? 🟩 Yes (Weekly/Monthly remain 'Strong') ➔ 🟩 RIDE TREND / HOLD CORE 🟧 Neutral (Daily mean-reversion pullback occurs) ➔ 🟩 BUY THE DIP 🟥 No (Weekly breaks market structure) ➔ 🟥 TIGHTEN STOPS HEAVILY PRICE PROJECTIONS: FORWARD MODELING 🟩 BULL CASE ("Melt-Up Extension"): Target ~7,500 - 7,600 | Probability: 30% The index defies near-term gravity. The Daily Mid Term momentum remains pinned in absolute overbought limits as price goes vertical toward major psychological resistance. 🟧 BASE CASE ("Measured Consolidation"): Target ~7,100 - 7,200 | Probability: 50% The asset digests its recent vertical move. A healthy sideways consolidation or shallow pullback occurs down to the recent breakout zones, alleviating Daily momentum pressure before resuming the uptrend. 🟥 BEAR CASE ("Intermediate Correction"): Target ~6,600 - 6,800 | Probability: 20% A macro catalyst snaps the buying pressure. The Daily trend rolls over hard, forcing a deeper structural correction back toward the primary Weekly support zones established earlier in the year. SCENARIO PLANNING 🟩 Respecting the Trend: In an environment where Weekly and Monthly indicators are perfectly aligned in 'Strong' territory, attempting to short the market is a low-probability endeavor. You must respect the dominant directional flow. 🟧 Managing the Tactical: However, because the Daily pulse is running at Overbought extremes, blindly buying the current highs is reckless. Transition from a mindset of 'aggressive accumulation' to 'patient entry and trend management'. EXECUTION PROTOCOL PRIMARY: 🟩 Ride the Core Trend, 🟧 Manage the Daily Extremes. 🟩 Step 1: Maintain core structural long exposure as long as the Weekly momentum indicator holds its 'Strong' rating. 🟧 Step 2: Cease adding new capital on aggressive daily up-days. Wait exclusively for multi-day pullbacks to alleviate the extreme momentum reading before deploying fresh capital. 🟥 Step 3: Implement a robust trailing stop system on tactical positions to mathematically protect profits in the event the short-term cycle suddenly mean-reverts. CONCLUSION The S&P 500 Index requires discipline right now. The structural underpinnings of this rally are magnificent, supported by highly resilient 🟩 'Strong' indicators on both the Weekly and Monthly charts. This dictates that the core strategy must remain heavily biased to the upside. Yet, the tactical landscape requires nuanced risk management; the Daily Mid Term pulse is burning hot. 🟩 Investors should continue to ride this lucrative secular wave, but the time for reckless daily accumulation has passed. 🟧 Secure your base, trail your stops, and wait for the market to cool off tactically before sizing up further. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za 🟩Clicks Currently Rebounding by 6%. The share traded into the buy range before rebounding. The move is also in line with the price action model. Previous Post (24 April) 🟩Clicks' Model Signal: Lower Levels Expected Before Tactical Rebound Bear in mind, the share is already down from above R410 to R275. After Thursday's sharp sell-off, I DO NOT know to what extent the selling pressure will be via the institutions, therefore we wait for some sort of lower time frame stabilization to, with a reasonable degree, confirm that the selling has slowed. The share is approaching our provisional buy re-entry range however, it could OVERSHOOT this level, or not get there at all before rebounding. The price action model (as of Thursday's close) on the short term and medium term time frame, is pointing to the reward-to-risk becoming appealing for a BUY/LONG position. CLS Bull-Bear Checklist as of the close on Thursday (22 April): Previous Post (15 April): Clicks Group: Quality on Sale + Cheap on Relative Distance vs All Share Index Trading 35% below it's 200-week simple moving average relative to the JSE All Share Index. Technically, it's approaching value territory. Previous Post (03 March) Trading Clicks Group: Deeply Oversold (Short Term) + Stalking For A Buy Re-Entry! >>> Most recently the share reached the full downside target of R310. https://www.unum.capital/post/cls2701 Analyst's Price Action Model For some context, the weekly chart is showing signs of LONG TERM deterioration! Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital