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Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Current Phase:  🟢 Buy on Pullback / Trend Continuation Next Best-Probability Phase:  🟢 Bullish Expansion / Breakout Attempt Strategic Overlay:  Trend Continuation. Momentum Profile:  The multi-timeframe momentum profile reveals a constructive, synchronized bullish alignment following a healthy structural reset. Monthly (Macro):  The macro momentum suite remains in a dominant secular uptrend. It is currently undergoing a minor digestion phase to work off peak froth without damaging the underlying trend. Weekly (Structural):  After a recent vertical peak and subsequent markdown, the fast weekly oscillators executed an orderly cooling cycle into oversold territory. They have now definitively arrested their decline and are hooking aggressively upward, signaling the structural pullback is complete. Daily (Tactical):  The daily fast oscillators previously washed out but have printed a violent V-shaped recovery. They have crossed cleanly above the neutral midline and are surging, actively dragging the slower tiers upward. Synthesis:  This is a textbook multi-timeframe structural buy setup. The macro trend is dominant, the structural trend has successfully reset and fired a fresh long signal, and tactical momentum is accelerating. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias:  Evaluating the broader macro context, the asset recently engineered a massive multi-year structural breakout. The tape peaked near ~$2,800 and executed a sharp corrective markdown toward the ~$1,600 support floor. Isolating the immediate daily price action, the tape fiercely defended that zone, printing a definitive higher-low and a sharp recovery to trade currently near ~$1,985. Given the multi-timeframe alignment, the tactical bias leans confidently toward 🟢 Buy on Pullback / Trend Continuation . Key Support & Resistance Levels:  Immediate overhead supply is concentrated near ~$2,100 to ~$2,200. If cleared, the primary target sits at the recent structural peak near ~$2,800. Immediate structural support rests firmly at the ~$1,850 intraday higher-low pivot. The ultimate macro floor remains the recent capitulation bounce level at ~$1,600. Next Candle Probability:  The current price action aligns with Scenario 17: 🟢 Bullish Continuation / Violent Rebound . The daily structure shows strong consecutive green expansion candles emerging from validated support. Because fast oscillators are surging, the highest probability outcome for the next sequence of daily candles is bullish follow-through targeting the ~$2,100 resistance block. Primary View Invalidation:  To invalidate this view, sellers would need to abruptly halt the current surge and force a decisive weekly close below the ~$1,850 local floor. This would confirm a bull trap, destroy the nascent weekly momentum hook, and initiate a deeper secular correction toward $1,600. The Next 10 Days:  Market participants should anticipate a steady, high-velocity grind toward the ~$2,100 to ~$2,200 supply zone. Minor intraday pullbacks toward ~$1,920 should be viewed as algorithmic base-building rather than trend reversals. Tactical Risk Assessment: Buying vs. Selling What's the risk of buying now?  You are buying into an extended daily bounce that is nearing overbought status. Vertical moves occasionally require a localized "breather" to form a high-level flag before taking out major resistance. You risk a brief drawdown toward ~$1,900 to build that structure. What Can Change?  If institutional buyers relentlessly press the tape and force a high-volume daily close above ~$2,100 without allowing a pullback, it confirms a runaway momentum squeeze, neutralizing the risk of a near-term dip. What's the risk of selling now?  You are stepping in front of a synchronized macro wave. The weekly chart has completed its reset and is firing a fresh structural long signal. You risk being "run over" as the tape catches a fresh macro bid and slices through local ceilings. What Can Change?  If the daily price structure reaches ~$2,100 and prints a massive, high-volume bearish rejection wick while fast momentum plateaus, it would mechanically confirm localized exhaustion and a shift to sideways chop. Timeframe Confluence & Forecasting (WCL Model) 1-Month Forecast (🟢 Bullish):   Driven by 60% Daily / 30% Weekly / 10% Monthly.  Daily oscillators are surging upward, supported by the weekly hook. We project tactical upward repricing over the next 30 days targeting the ~$2,100 - ~$2,200 block. 3-Month Forecast (🟢 Strong Bullish):   Driven by 20% Daily / 50% Weekly / 30% Monthly.  With the weekly cooling cycle completed and hooking up from deep levels, the structural trend is primed for continuation toward ~$2,400. 6-Month Forecast (🟢 Secular Bullish):   Driven by 10% Daily / 20% Weekly / 70% Monthly.  The monthly timeframe dominates. Because the macro oscillators have successfully digested peak froth, we project significantly higher prices six months out as the primary secular bull trend resumes. Forecast Projection Breakdown:  With momentum accelerating across all timeframes, the probability distribution is heavily skewed toward immediate continuation. The Bullish Scenario (60% Probability):  The vertical squeeze persists. Buyers absorb all minor profit-taking and drive the price relentlessly toward ~$2,200  without allowing a deep pullback. The Base/Neutral Scenario (25% Probability):  The asset hits a localized psychological wall at ~$2,000  and enters a high-level flag, grinding sideways to lower toward ~$1,900  to allow the moving averages to catch up. The Bearish Scenario (15% Probability):  The breakout is a sophisticated trap. A sudden macro shock forces a high-volume reversal that crashes the price back into the ~$1,700  range. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. Our goal, within research, continues to be: to help clients (1) understand the market environment (2) assess the reward-to-risk across various time horizons, with the ultimate goal of (3) uncovering opportunities on both the buy (long) and sell (short) side. Coverage: JSE Top 40 Index, Spot Gold, Harmony Gold, Thungela Sasol (2x) and S&P 500 If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk , why not consider making us your trading services provider ? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider , mail  tradingdesk@unum.co.za .  Alternatively, Sign Up Here:  https://tradedesk.co/tenant/Unum/signup The opportunities discussed below represents only a fraction of the continuous ideas that are highlighted to clients of Unum Capital, whether short term, medium term or long term. All ideas are presented with specific actionable areas on either the BUY/LONG or SELL/SHORT side. These actionable areas represent the best-probability levels at which clients should look to commit capital. Alternatively, the actionable areas are combined with the Price Action Model is used to assess probabilities for various time frames (depending on the time horizon of the client). In recent weeks, the some of the opportunities have been as follows: (1) JSE TOP 40 INDEX: 15,000 POINT RALLY. Traded into the buy re-entry range which was followed by a massive rebound. Original + Updated Note > https://www.unum.capital/post/j2000204 Latest chart with original levels shown below: (2) Spot Gold: Traded into the buy re-entry range followed by a +14.5% (or +$600) rebound. Original + Updated Note > https://www.unum.capital/post/xau0104 Latest chart with original levels shown below:   (3) Harmony Gold:  Traded into the buy re-entry range followed by a +37% rebound. The view was driven in large part by a real-time 'temperature check' of the price action model. Original + Updated Note > https://www.unum.capital/post/har0604 Latest chart with original levels shown below:   (4) Thungela Resources:   The share has offered opportunities on both the buy and sell side. BUY: It reached our final target of R140 from which it continued to rally. SELL:  On 20 March, we highlighted the downside risk, cautioning NEW longs. The share declined from nearly R180 to below R140. BUY: The share the traded into the latest buy re-entry range, with a low of 13950c before closing yesterday's session at 14957c. All references (proof) to the original notes are shown on the chart. Latest chart with original levels shown below:   (5) Sasol (LONG SIDE):  The R175 target was exceeded, with a rally to above R220. Recent Updated Note with alert at R70 (February 2025) > https://www.unum.capital/post/sol2703 Chart updated on 27 March with prior references to the R175 target shown below:   (6) Sasol (SHORT/SELL SIDE):  The warning/sell view was driven in large part by the 'temperature check' via the Price Action Model (26 March - See Below): Warning at R218 in REAL-TIME here > https://www.unum.capital/post/sol2703 Today (Wednesday, 08 April), the share collapsed to below R180. (7) S&P 500 Index: Probability for a relief rally triggered by the 'temperature check' via the Price Action Model (communicated in real-time on the website). Updated view here > https://www.unum.capital/post/spx0804 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The index rebounded in line with the price action model (1 to 10 day time frame). Previous Post (Sunday, 28 March): S&P 500 Index: Waterfall Breakdown + Next Best Actionable Areas Published on Sunday, 29 March for Monday, 30 March. S&P 500 Index (SPX) Momentum Profile:  The weekly momentum profile reveals a catastrophic and uniform collapse. The Ultra Short Term and Short Term tiers have plunged to absolute zero-bound extremes, indicating maximum historical localized selling pressure and algorithmic capitulation. The Mid Term has dragged deep into weak territory, and the Base Term has now fractured below its neutral band into weakness, confirming that the aggressive sell-off has fundamentally damaged the longer-term macro trend. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias:  Evaluating the 20-week macro context, the SPX was previously in a sustained, orderly structural uptrend, peaking near ~6,650. Within the 10-week window, the index printed a clear double-top distribution structure, failing to sustain new highs as institutional exhaustion set in. Looking at the 3-to-5-week timeframe, this distribution phase resolved violently to the downside. Isolating the immediate 1-week timeframe, the index printed a devastating red waterfall candle, effortlessly slicing through the 6,500 critical psychological level to close near absolute weekly lows at 6,368.85. Given the total collapse in momentum and the definitive breakdown of the macro floor, the tactical bias is strictly 🔴 Avoid / Waterfall Capitulation . Key Support & Resistance Levels:  Overhead supply and macro resistance are firmly established at ~6,500 to ~6,600, representing the massive broken support zone that now acts as a formidable ceiling containing trapped long positions. Immediate structural support is currently in a state of price discovery, but psychological and historical liquidity points to the ~6,000 to ~6,100 zone as the next viable floor. Major historical demand lies deeper at ~5,700, marking the major breakout consolidation base from late 2024. Next Candle Probability:  The current price action perfectly aligns with Scenario 99: 🔴 Waterfall Capitulation . The 1-week candle is a massive, wide-range downward expansion that completely ignored any intraday buying attempts. Because it closed at the absolute lows with virtually no lower wick, it indicates sellers maintained aggressive, panic-driven control straight into the Friday bell. The highest structural probability for the next weekly candle is continued downside follow-through, targeting lower liquidity pools as margin calls and systematic unwinds persist. Primary View Invalidation:  To invalidate this waterfall capitulation primary view, buyers must orchestrate a miraculous, high-volume V-shaped short squeeze that immediately arrests the slide and sustains a weekly close back above the ~6,500 breakdown level. This would trap the aggressive short positioning, suggest the massive flush was an anomalous liquidity sweep, and stabilize the broader macro structure. Technical Risks & Opportunities: 3 Technical Risks: Cascading Systemic Unwinds:  A continuation below current levels risks triggering further mechanical selling from volatility-targeting funds and negative gamma options positioning, violently accelerating the markdown phase. Momentum Entrenchment:  If the Ultra Short Term and Short Term oscillators remain pinned at the zero-bound extreme without triggering a relief bounce, it signals a structural regime change where buyers have entirely abandoned the tape. Lower High Confirmation:  Any anemic, low-volume relief rally that fails to forcefully clear the 6,500 supply wall will simply provide smart money with premium liquidity to short into, cementing a macro lower-high. 3 Technical Opportunities: Oversold Rubber-Band Snapback:  The extreme downside fracturing and zero-bound momentum tiers create a highly pressurized, stretched environment; stabilization here could trigger a violent, highly tradable V-shaped relief rally. Generational Base Reset:  Should the index flush down to the 5,700 – 6,000 historical demand zone, it would wash out months of excess macro froth and provide a pristine, low-risk institutional accumulation zone for the next cycle. Volatility Contraction Setup:  If the tape can temporarily arrest the slide and begin printing tight inside bars, it sets up a defined-risk structural baseline for a mean-reversion trade once order flow balances. The Next 10 Days:  Over the next two trading weeks, the index faces a critical stabilization test as it navigates the immediate fallout of this waterfall capitulation. Given the zero-bound extremes in the faster momentum tiers, market participants should anticipate highly erratic, bidirectional volatility, where sudden, sharp short-covering relief rallies toward the ~6,500 broken support are entirely plausible but remain structurally suspect. If buyers fail to orchestrate a definitive V-shaped recovery to reclaim that 6,500 ceiling, these "dead-cat" bounces will simply provide fresh liquidity for institutional sellers, likely resulting in a secondary wave of algorithmic distribution that presses the tape down to definitively test the ~6,000 to ~6,100 historical demand zone before a durable macro floor can be established. Forecast Projection Breakdown:  With fast momentum obliterated and a clear downward expansion pattern cemented on the chart, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors a test of lower liquidity pools, though the extreme stretch warrants vigilance for sudden snap-backs. The Bearish Scenario (60% Probability):  The capitulation continues unabated. Sellers easily slice through minor psychological barriers, initiating a rapid markdown targeting the ~6,000 to ~6,100 liquidity pool as panic persists. The Base/Neutral Scenario (25% Probability):  The intense selling pressure temporarily exhausts itself. The index enters a choppy, highly volatile lower-range distribution phase between ~6,300 and ~6,500 as the market attempts to find an equilibrium amid shifting flows. The Bullish Scenario (15% Probability):  The extreme oversold momentum triggers a violent short-covering squeeze. Buyers aggressively absorb the supply and force a rapid upward spike back toward the ~6,500 broken floor, invalidating the immediate free-fall. Previous Post (28 October 2025): S&P 500 Index (Monthly Chart Time Frame): Broadly Overbought Conditions Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (20 March): Thungela Resources: The Model Says: "Caution New Longs!" + New Resistance Range   READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Analysis of Brent Crude Oil Published: Monday, 06 April. The Oil Spike. Link > https://www.unum.capital/post/oil0803 Current Phase:  🟡 High-Level Consolidation Next Best-Probability Phase:  🟡 High-Level Chop / Volatility Digestion Momentum Profile:  The multi-timeframe momentum profile reveals a highly pressurized tape that has stretched too far, too fast, and is now actively seeking equilibrium. Monthly (Macro):  The entire momentum suite is exploding vertically from a deep structural base, thrusting straight into extreme overbought territory. This confirms a massive, overarching regime shift and a dominant secular bull phase. Weekly (Structural):  The momentum suite reached extreme overbought clustering, but the Ultra Short Term oscillator has just executed a violent, vertical crash down toward the neutral midline. This is a definitive warning sign of structural exhaustion and aggressive institutional profit-taking. Daily (Tactical):  The fast daily oscillators have completely cooled off from their overbought extremes, slicing bearishly through the neutral midline and actively dragging the slower Mid Term and Base Term tiers lower. Synthesis:  We are witnessing a classic parabolic digestion. The macro (Monthly) trend is relentlessly bullish, but the structural (Weekly) trend has exhausted its immediate fuel, and the tactical (Daily) momentum has already reset to the downside. This divergence dictates that a high-level consolidation or a deeper corrective pullback is required to balance the order book. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias:  Evaluating the broader macro context, the asset recently engineered a breathtaking vertical breakout, launching from the ~$80.00 accumulation base and surging parabolically to print a peak near ~$111.00. Isolating the immediate daily price action, the ascent has forcefully stalled. The tape is currently printing a high-level distribution/consolidation block just below the recent highs, characterized by topping tails and erratic intraday chop, currently trading near ~$107.47. Given the violent downward hook in weekly momentum and the cooling daily tape, the tactical bias leans heavily toward 🟡 High-Level Consolidation / Mean-Reversion Pullback . Key Support & Resistance Levels:  Immediate overhead supply and local resistance sit tightly at the recent peak near ~$111.00 to ~$112.00. If this level is eventually cleared, the ultimate macro target and historical resistance ceiling rests near ~$120.00. Immediate structural support is established at the psychological and local pivot zone of ~$100.00. Because the recent rally was a vertical "blue-sky" surge, a massive structural air pocket exists below; if the $100.00 floor gives way, the next robust structural base lies much deeper in the ~$90.00 liquidity zone. Next Candle Probability:  The current price action aligns with Scenario 44: 🟡 High-Level Chop / Volatility Digestion . The daily structure shows a total loss of upward velocity as the tape moves sideways-to-lower. The highest probability outcome for the next sequence of daily candles is continued range-bound chop or a grinding drift lower as algorithmic momentum forces the weekly oscillators out of their extreme overbought state. Primary View Invalidation:  To invalidate this corrective/consolidation primary view, buyers must completely ignore the extreme overbought conditions and the crashing weekly momentum. They would need to orchestrate a massive, high-volume breakout that definitively clears and holds above the ~$112.00 local ceiling. This would signal a rare, runaway parabolic squeeze continuation toward $120.00. The Next 10 Days:  Over the next two trading weeks, the asset faces a critical test of its high-level flag structure. Given that daily momentum is actively cooling while the weekly tape screams exhaustion, market participants should anticipate erratic, bidirectional price action heavily skewed toward testing local floors. The tape will likely oscillate violently as early longs take profits. If the ~$100.00 local floor cracks, expect a rapid algorithmic flush to definitively test the ~$90.00 structural base. Tactical Risk Assessment: Buying vs. Selling What's the risk of buying now?  The primary risk of initiating a new long position at ~$107.47 is that you are chasing a vertically overextended weekly/monthly chart precisely as structural momentum is crashing. Because the ascent left a massive air pocket beneath it, buying here exposes you to the risk of a severe mean-reversion drawdown toward the ~$100.00 or ~$90.00 support voids before a true macro higher-low is formed. What Can Change?  If institutional buyers aggressively defend the ~$100.00 level, absorb all overhead supply, and force a high-volume daily close above ~$112.00, it validates the parabolic strength and significantly lowers the risk of an immediate deep pullback. What's the risk of selling now?  The primary risk of selling (whether taking profits or initiating a speculative short position) is stepping directly in front of a confirmed macro regime shift. While the weekly chart is exhausted and a pullback is logically favored, the underlying monthly trend is aggressively bullish. In commodity markets, overbought squeezes can remain irrational longer than anticipated. What Can Change?  If the daily price structure definitively slices through the ~$100.00 local support with expanding volume, it mechanically confirms the localized exhaustion thesis, signaling that gravity has taken control and a deeper structural pullback to $90.00 is underway. Timeframe Confluence & Forecasting (WCL Model) Applying the Weighted Confluence Logic to the current momentum structure: 1-Month Forecast (🔴 Bearish / Pullback):   Driven by 60% Daily / 30% Weekly / 10% Monthly.  The daily oscillators are drifting into weakness, heavily supported by the violent downward hook on the weekly chart. We project lower prices over the next 30 days as the asset executes a necessary mean-reversion structural correction toward the ~$100.00 or ~$90.00 levels to digest the vertical rally. 3-Month Forecast (🟡 Base/Neutral):   Driven by 20% Daily / 50% Weekly / 30% Monthly.  The intense overbought conditions on the macro timeframes will require significant time to reset. We project highly volatile, structural chop and base-building roughly between ~$90.00 and ~$110.00 as the tape exhausts the sellers and builds a durable institutional foundation. 6-Month Forecast (🟢 Bullish):   Driven by 10% Daily / 20% Weekly / 70% Monthly.  The monthly timeframe dominates. The massive surge from the $80.00 base confirmed a secular regime shift. Once the 3-month corrective digestion completes, we project higher prices six months out as the primary secular bull trend resumes its assault on the ~$120.00 macro resistance. Forecast Projection Breakdown:  With daily and weekly momentum cooling to digest extreme macro overbought conditions, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors sideways consolidation or a healthy mean-reverting pullback. The Base/Neutral Scenario (45% Probability):  The tape manages to hold the high-level flag. The asset enters a choppy distribution/accumulation phase strictly between ~$100.00 and ~$111.00 to allow the slower moving averages to catch up to the price. The Bearish/Pullback Scenario (35% Probability):  Parabolic gravity takes hold. Sellers break the $100.00 floor, initiating a sharp, healthy structural retracement targeting the ~$90.00 liquidity pool to build a true macro higher-low. The Bullish Scenario (20% Probability):  The macro momentum is simply unstoppable. Buyers absorb all profit-taking without needing a deep pullback, squeezing the price relentlessly through the $112.00 ceiling to continue the vertical advance toward $120.00. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za This is a premium research note. We believe that actionable, high-quality research is best served alongside seamless trade execution. Therefore, access to our proprietary analysis and dedicated watchlists is an exclusive benefit provided solely to clients who route their trading through our desk. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Monday 30 March): Prosus: Early Buy Trigger; Lower Levels Expected Before Potential Rebound Analyst's Price Action Model Prosus N.V. - Weekly Chart Momentum Profile:  The weekly momentum profile exposes a violent, uniform bearish capitulation. The Base Term, Mid Term, Short Term, and Ultra Short Term tiers have all plunged deep into extremely weak and historically oversold territory. This severe downward clustering across the entire momentum suite signals a massive institutional exodus and overwhelming selling pressure. However, the absolute fastest oscillators are beginning to flatten at the zero-bound extreme, hinting at potential seller exhaustion in the immediate term. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias:  Evaluating the broader macro context, the asset previously engineered a massive structural uptrend, peaking near the ~130,000c macro resistance zone. Within the 10-week window, this distribution phase resolved violently to the downside, fracturing the macro floor and initiating a brutal waterfall decline. Looking at the immediate 3-to-5-week timeframe, the tape bled out relentlessly, carving through multiple psychological floors. Isolating the immediate 1-week timeframe, the asset printed a small-bodied hesitation candle (a doji or spinning top) near ~75,972c, temporarily arresting the vertical free-fall. Given the deeply oversold fast momentum and the catastrophic structural breakdown, the tactical bias leans toward 🔴 Avoid / Waterfall Capitulation , though we are on high alert for a mean-reversion snapback. Key Support & Resistance Levels:  Overhead supply and macro resistance are now firmly established at ~85,000c to ~90,000c, representing recently broken support floors that now act as a massive ceiling containing trapped longs. Immediate structural support sits lower at the ~65,000c historical pivot, marking the next logical liquidity pool and the deeper target for the current flush. Should this major floor give way, deep historical demand lies much lower around ~53,000c to ~55,000c. Next Candle Probability:  The current price action is a textbook manifestation of Scenario 99: 🔴 Waterfall Capitulation (Exhaustion Pause) . The 1-week candle definitively arrested the immediate slide, printing a narrow-range hesitation structure at the lows. While the extreme oversold momentum readings can spark violent intraday relief bounces, the highest structural probability for the next weekly candle is highly volatile, bidirectional chop as the market attempts to find an equilibrium, with a persistent underlying risk of a secondary flush to test the ~65,000c support zone. Primary View Invalidation:  To invalidate this bearish capitulation primary view, buyers must orchestrate a miraculous, high-volume V-shaped short squeeze that immediately arrests the slide and sustains a weekly close back above the ~85,000c breakdown level. This would trap the aggressive short positioning, suggest the massive flush was an anomalous liquidity sweep, and stabilize the broader macro structure for a potential recovery. The Next 10 Days:  Over the next two trading weeks, the asset faces a critical stabilization test as it navigates the immediate fallout of this waterfall decline. Given the extreme oversold state of the fast momentum oscillators, market participants should anticipate highly erratic volatility, where sudden, sharp short-covering relief rallies are entirely plausible but remain structurally suspect. If buyers fail to orchestrate a definitive V-shaped recovery to clear local resistance, these bounces will simply provide fresh liquidity for institutional sellers, likely resulting in a secondary wave of distribution that presses the tape down to definitively test the ~65,000c historical demand zone. Tactical Risk Assessment: Buying vs. Selling What's the risk of buying now?  The primary risk of initiating a new long position at these levels is attempting to catch a falling knife in an active liquidation event. While momentum is historically oversold, a structurally damaged tape can grind lower for weeks or months. By buying prematurely before a confirmed higher-low base is established, you risk getting swept up in secondary algorithmic margin calls if the asset flushes toward the ~65,000c support void. What Can Change?  If institutional buyers aggressively step in to defend the tape at current levels and print a confirmed reversal pattern (such as a high-volume bullish engulfing weekly candle), it would immediately signal that the algorithmic liquidation phase has exhausted itself and a durable macro base is forming. What's the risk of selling now?  The primary risk of selling (whether panicking out of a long or initiating a late speculative short position) is the danger of getting caught in a violent "rubber band" short-squeeze. Because all momentum tiers are pinned at extreme oversold lows, the tape is highly pressurized. Any minor positive catalyst could ignite a rapid, high-velocity relief rally toward the ~85,000c supply wall, which would aggressively liquidate late short sellers and force them to buy back at much higher prices. What Can Change?  If the current hesitation candle fails entirely and the asset suffers a definitive, high-volume weekly close below the recent panic lows, it would confirm that sellers remain in absolute control. This would signal that the anticipated mean-reversion squeeze has been aborted, opening the trap door for a direct continuation of the waterfall decline toward historical demand. Forecast Projection Breakdown:  With fast momentum completely bottomed out and a clear downward expansion pattern cemented on the chart, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors a test of lower liquidity pools, though the extreme stretch warrants high vigilance for sudden snap-backs. The Bearish Scenario (55% Probability):  The capitulation continues after a brief pause. Sellers easily slice through the recent lows, initiating a rapid markdown targeting the ~65,000c liquidity pool as structural panic persists. The Base/Neutral Scenario (30% Probability):  The intense selling pressure temporarily exhausts itself. The asset enters a choppy, highly volatile lower-range distribution phase between ~70,000c and ~85,000c as the market attempts to find an equilibrium amid shifting flows. The Bullish Scenario (15% Probability):  The extreme oversold momentum triggers a violent short-covering squeeze. Buyers aggressively absorb the supply and force a rapid upward spike back toward the ~85,000c broken floor, invalidating the immediate free-fall. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share was lower by nearly 20% in this morning, unwinding from overbought conditions. This move is in line with the previous analysis (warning on the overbought risk) as well as in line with the price action model at the time. See below: Previous Post (Thursday 26 March):💡Sasol The Leader: The Probabilities Going Forward Published Thursday, 26 March (After Market Close), for Friday, 27 March. This note considers the medium to long term technical outlook for Sasol. BOTTOM LINE: Too late to buy, but too early to sell/short. Overbought conditions can remain in place for extended periods and we don't want to get caught in a short squeeze. Remain patient and WAIT for parabolic-like slope/trend and exhaustive candle structure to initiate a short/sell position. Analyst's Current Price Action Model Reading (Maximum Outlook: 8 Week, Extending To 10) SASOL (SOL) – MACRO & DAILY INTEGRATION (AS OF MARCH 26, 2026) KEY TAKEAWAY:  Sasol has staged a violent, +50% macro reversal this month, driving near-term trailing momentum into extreme overbought territory; traders must exercise discipline and avoid chasing this vertical move, waiting instead for a pullback to the daily 8-EMA or a clear overextension signal to short against overhead structural resistance. CONVICTION / SIZING:  Defensive / Cash (Do not chase the parabolic monthly candle; wait for a structural reset). THESIS INVALIDATION:  A sustained consolidation holding near these highs, or a powerful volume breakout closing above the primary macro resistance at 27,213. PROBABLE R:R:  Highly Unattractive for buyers. Buying now means risking a standard daily pullback (which could be 10-15% given the volatility) just to target the first major resistance zone at ~27k. Integrated Summary  For Sasol (SOL), integrating the daily model with the monthly chart reveals a textbook "exhaustion risk" setup. On the macro scale, the stock has violently reversed off its structural lows, surging from ~13,500 to nearly 22,000 in a single month. Because of this aggressive buying, the daily Short Term (1 to 10 days) model has officially flagged the 7-day trend as "overbought," while the 14-day trend remains "very bullish". The Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) explicitly warns traders: "do not enter long here." The tactical probability favors waiting "for 8 EMA to play next minor bounce" or waiting "for overextension to short sell" as the price stretches toward the heavy historical supply lines at 27,213 and 32,001. The Long Term perspective firmly corroborates this defensive stance, noting that one "would not enter long here risk reward unattractive". Full Technical Take Report (Daily Model Context) Short Term (approx. 1 to 10 days): 7-Day Trend:  Overbought 14-Day Trend:  Very Bullish Action:  No reading available (Momentum is stretched beyond standard deviations). Medium Term (approx. 2 to 4 weeks):  * Status:  Aggressive buying activity. Action:  Do not enter long here - wait for 8 EMA to play next minor bounce - alternatively wait for overextension to short sell. Long Term (approx. 5 to 8 weeks): Status:  Risk reward unattractive. Action:  Would not enter long here. Sasol Monthly Chart Below: Thirteen months ago, (February 2025), our research triggered a triple buy reading at R79. Today (Thursday 26 March), the share reached a multi-month high of R219. Thirteen (13) months ago, we published a note called: 'Zooming Out: Sasol'. Included in that note was the identification of the key long term support level as well as the Price Action Model that gave us a TRIPLE BUY reading - a rarity on the model. From this level, we saw the price trade lower, offering the opportunity to accumulate shares, before staging one of the strong multi-year recoveries from below R55 in April 2025 to a high of R212 yesterday. The original note can be found here > https://www.unum.capital/post/sasol-zoom-out SOL PRICE ACTION MODEL READING on 10-February-2025 SOL WEEKLY Chart on 10-February-2025 This PREMIUM NOTE considers the LONG TERM OUTLOOK for Sasol, which includes the updated momentum analysis as well as the long term chart, with key resistance zones in the event of a medium term overextension. This note is available to active trading clients (trades placed within the last 10 trading sessions). Here, you get to see what we see. For access, clients can email me directly at lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Should the share trade in the buy re-entry range, it will exhibit the following conditions: - Short term bear complete or completion - Into it's rising 200-day SMA - Oversold (Ultra Short Term) - 18 to 20% off it's year-to-date high - At or around it's previous breakout level. Should the share trade in the sell re-entry range, it will exhibit the following conditions: - Upper boundary of short term bear flag - Double top - Approaching Overbought (Medium Term) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Woolworth Holdings (WHL): Getting Close To A Buy Setup Should the share trade in the buy re-entry range, it will exhibit the following conditions: - Into a swing low - Possible waterfall flush - Oversold (Medium Term) - Oversold (Medium Term) - 23 to 26% off it's year-to-date high - Extended to the downside vs it's 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za This breakdown analyzes the internal health, participation rates, and structural cross-currents of the dataset to give you the overarching macro verdict. 📊 Macro Categorical Distribution 1. The "Wait and See" Majority:  Market breadth is heavily anchored in indecision. With nearly 50% of the dataset falling into the 🟡 Wait / Range Trade  category, the broader index lacks a unified directional catalyst, signaling a highly fragmented, stock-picker's environment. 2. The Bullish Skew:  Despite the heavy consolidation, actionable breadth leans firmly bullish. There are roughly 50 combined 🟢 Buy Breakout  and 🟢 Buy on Pullback  triggers, vastly outnumbering the hard Sells or Avoids. 3. Scarcity of "Sell" Triggers:  True structural distribution at the top is rare. Only 2 stocks (ADH, ABG) triggered a strict 🔴 Sell on Rally , suggesting that while many high-flyers are Overbought, they are not yet breaking down structurally. 4. The "Avoid" Graveyard is Contained:  Absolute macro breakdowns ( 🔴 Avoid / Cap ) are isolated to just 4 specific counters (VAL, WBO, VOD, WBC), indicating that systemic market contagion or total index capitulation is not currently in play. 5. The Missing "Hold" Middle:  Only a tiny fraction of stocks trigger a 🟡 Hold / Trail Stops . This implies a polarity in the momentum: stocks are either setting up for new entries (Breakouts/Pullbacks) or are completely un-investable right now (Range Trade/Avoid), with very few sitting in the comfortable "just hold it" middle ground. ⏱️ Timeframe Alignment & Divergence 6. The Monthly Macro Anchor:  Long-term breadth is surprisingly robust. A vast majority of the top 50 ranked stocks boast Tier 2 (High Bullish) or Tier 1 (Overbought) Monthly momentum, providing a powerful structural tailwind. 7. The Daily Cooling Effect:  Short-term breadth is dragging. The Daily column is littered with ⚪ Neutral / Consolidating  and 🟠 Weak / Distributing  tiers, even among strong macro performers. This explains the high volume of "Pullback" setups—the market is breathing out on the daily chart. 8. Multi-Timeframe Synchronization (Bullish):  True systemic strength requires all three timeframes to align. Elite performers like Exxaro (EXX) and Glencore (GLN) showcase rare breadth synergy, where Daily, Weekly, and Monthly momentum are all firing in Tiers 1-3 simultaneously. 9. Multi-Timeframe Synchronization (Bearish):  Conversely, absolute capitulation requires downside alignment. Stocks like CA Sales (CAA) and RCL Foods (RCL) show terminal synchronization, trapped in Tiers 5-7 across all three timeframes. 10. The Macro/Micro Divergence:  The most common structural setup in the current tape is "Monthly Strong + Daily Weak." This breadth divergence is the exact mechanism generating the high number of 🟢 Buy on Pullback  opportunities. 🏢 Sector-Specific Breadth (The Internal Cross-Currents) 11. Retail Sector Decimation:  Breadth within SA Retail is outright toxic. Counters like SPP, TFG, WHL, PIK, and MRP dominate the absolute bottom of the rankings, drowned in 🔴 Oversold  and High Bearish momentum on the Weekly and Monthly timeframes. 12. Financials in a Holding Pattern:  The banking sector (SBK, NED, FSR, CPI) shows solid Monthly momentum, but their Daily and Weekly breadth has flatlined into Neutrality. They are effectively "parked" capital, waiting for a catalyst. 13. The PGM Paralysis:  Platinum Group Metals (IMP, SSW, NPH) are suffering from terrible internal breadth. Trapped in the bottom half of the rankings, their momentum profiles are dominated by Tier 4 and Tier 5 congestion. 14. Diversified Miners & Gold Leading:  The resource space is deeply bifurcated. While PGMs drag, Gold (GFI, ANG) and Diversified Miners (GLN, EXX, AGL) are single-handedly propping up the bullish breadth of the broader resource sector. 15. Mid-Cap Tech / Niche Strength:  Niche technology and specialized mid-caps (like LSK, DTC, BYI) are showing surprising internal strength, frequently popping up as 🟢 Buy Breakouts  against a sluggish broader tape. ⚙️ Volatility & Structural Mechanics 16. The Tier 4 Magnet:  The ⚪ Neutral / Consolidating  (Tier 4) zone is currently acting as a massive gravity well on the Daily charts. Over 40% of the dataset is currently anchored here on a short-term basis, suppressing near-term market volatility. 17. Terminal Extremes are Clustered:  When extreme momentum hits, it is clustering at the sector level rather than randomly. The 🔴 Oversold (Tier 7)  readings are heavily clustered in retail/clothing, while 🟢 Overbought (Tier 1)  is clustered in industrials/diversified mining. 18. Asymmetric Pullback Floors:  Because Daily momentum has cooled (Point 7) while Monthly momentum remains strong (Point 6), a high percentage of the dataset is currently trading dangerously close to their Estimated Oversold Ranges  (the high-conviction value floor), creating a tight risk/reward skew for buyers. 19. Exhaustion Ceilings are Untested:  Very few stocks are actively pushing into their Estimated Overbought Ranges  simultaneously on the daily chart. The upside velocity has temporarily paused, preventing a "Blow-off Top" scenario for the broader index. 20. Overall Market Verdict:  The breadth data paints a picture of a "Consolidating Bull Market."  The long-term (Monthly) structural foundations are heavily skewed to the upside, but the short-term (Daily) internal breadth is actively correcting sideways. It is a market digesting prior gains, forcing capital to rotate surgically into Pullbacks and Breakouts rather than rewarding passive index buying. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital