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Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Based on data as of the end of day on Friday 02 April. Summary: Gold Miners and Diversified Miners are the standout performers on the board, consistently maintaining intense, bullish momentum and sustaining serious strength built from a solid Long-Term foundation (with Gold Miners hitting a High Bullish/Approaching Overbought extreme in the Short Term). Meanwhile, Hospitals showed a temporary surge, snapping from a Weak Long-Term trend to Strong in the Medium Term before settling to Neutral. On the fading front, Banks, Insurers, and Telecoms show a clear downward shift, slipping from a sleepy Neutral Long-Term and Medium-Term stance to establish a Weak Short-Term footing. Similarly, some sectors are visibly losing their early longer-term strength, with Platinum Miners, Coal Miners, and Chemicals cooling entirely from Strong long-term foundations to Neutral in the Short Term. Finally, Technology and Consumer Discretionary continue to languish under persistent, multi-horizon weakness, while Consumer Staples, Paper & Pulp, and Luxury Goods are managing a mild stabilization, lifting from Weak or High Bearish longer-term regimes into a Neutral short-term state. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Current Phase:  🟢 Buy on Pullback / Trend Continuation Next Best-Probability Phase: 🟢 Bullish Continuation / Breakout Attempt Strategic Overlay:  Trend Continuation. Momentum Profile:  The multi-timeframe momentum profile reveals a highly constructive, synchronized bullish alignment following a healthy structural reset. Monthly (Macro):  The macro momentum suite remains incredibly strong. The fast tiers previously pushed deeply into bullish territory, pulling the slower secular cycles upward. It is currently undergoing a minor, healthy digestion phase to work off peak froth without damaging the underlying macro trend. Weekly (Structural):  After a recent vertical peak and subsequent markdown, the fast weekly oscillators executed a deep, orderly cooling cycle down into oversold territory. They have now definitively arrested their decline and are hooking aggressively back upward, signaling that the structural pullback is complete and buyers are reloading. Daily (Tactical):  The daily fast oscillators previously washed out into oversold territory but have just printed a violent, V-shaped recovery. They have crossed cleanly above the neutral midline and are surging into overbought territory, actively dragging the slower tiers up with them. Synthesis:  This is a textbook multi-timeframe structural buy setup. The macro trend (Monthly) is dominant, the structural trend (Weekly) has successfully digested excess froth and is firing a fresh long signal, and the tactical (Daily) momentum is aggressively accelerating upward. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias:  Evaluating the broader macro context, the asset recently engineered a massive, multi-year structural breakout. The tape peaked near the ~$2,800 resistance zone and executed a sharp, highly necessary corrective markdown. This pullback drove the price straight into the ~$1,600 capitulation support floor, effectively shaking out weak hands. Isolating the immediate daily price action, the tape fiercely defended that zone, printing a definitive higher-low and a sharp recovery to trade currently near ~$1,979. Given the multi-timeframe momentum alignment and the successful weekly hook, the tactical bias leans confidently toward 🟢 Buy on Pullback / Trend Continuation . Key Support & Resistance Levels:  Immediate overhead supply is concentrated at the psychological and structural block near ~$2,100 to ~$2,200. If cleared, the primary target and macro resistance zone sits at the recent structural peak near ~$2,800. Immediate structural support rests firmly at the ~$1,800 intraday higher-low pivot zone. Should a secondary shakeout occur, the ultimate macro floor and line-in-the-sand for the bull thesis remains the recent capitulation bounce level at ~$1,600. Next Candle Probability:  The current price action perfectly aligns with Scenario 17: 🟢 Bullish Continuation / Violent Rebound . The daily structure shows strong consecutive green expansion candles emerging directly from a validated support floor. Because the fast oscillators are surging with accelerating momentum, the highest probability outcome for the next sequence of daily candles is bullish follow-through, targeting the trapped liquidity near the ~$2,100 resistance block. Primary View Invalidation:  To invalidate this highly bullish primary view, sellers would need to abruptly halt the current daily momentum surge, violently reverse the tape, and force a decisive weekly close below the ~$1,800 local floor. This action would confirm a massive bull trap, destroy the nascent weekly momentum hook, and initiate a deeper secular correction toward $1,600. The Next 10 Days:  Over the next two trading weeks, the asset faces an explosive upside setup as it attempts to break clear of the consolidation base. Given that daily momentum is actively accelerating upward in tandem with the weekly hook, market participants should anticipate a steady, high-velocity grind toward the ~$2,100 to ~$2,200 supply zone. Minor intraday pullbacks toward ~$1,900 should be viewed as algorithmic base-building rather than trend reversals. Tactical Risk Assessment: Buying vs. Selling What's the risk of buying now?  The primary risk of initiating a new long position at ~$1,979 is that you are buying directly into an extended daily bounce that is just reaching overbought status. While the multi-timeframe setup is exceptionally strong, vertical bounces occasionally require a localized "breather" to form a high-level flag on the daily chart before taking out major resistance. You risk experiencing a brief, shallow drawdown toward ~$1,850 to build that structure. What Can Change?  If institutional buyers relentlessly press the tape and force a high-volume daily close above ~$2,100 without allowing a pullback, it confirms a runaway momentum squeeze, completely neutralizing the risk of a near-term dip. What's the risk of selling now?  The primary risk of selling (whether taking profits prematurely or attempting a counter-trend short) is stepping directly in front of a synchronized, multi-timeframe bullish wave. The weekly chart has completed its deep reset and is firing a fresh structural long signal. If you short here, you risk getting violently run over as the tape catches a fresh macro bid and easily slices through the local ceilings. What Can Change?  If the daily price structure reaches ~$2,100 and prints a massive, high-volume bearish rejection wick, while the fast momentum completely plateaus and crosses bearishly, it would mechanically confirm localized exhaustion. Timeframe Confluence & Forecasting (WCL Model) Applying the Weighted Confluence Logic to the current momentum structure: 1-Month Forecast (🟢 Bullish):   Driven by 60% Daily / 30% Weekly / 10% Monthly.  The daily oscillators are surging into very strong overbought territory, supported by the fresh weekly upward hook. We project a tactical upward repricing over the next 30 days as the asset aggressively targets the ~$2,100 - ~$2,200 resistance block. 3-Month Forecast (🟢 Strong Bullish):   Driven by 20% Daily / 50% Weekly / 30% Monthly.  With the weekly cooling cycle successfully completed and hooking up from deeply oversold levels, the structural trend is primed for a massive continuation. We project higher prices three months out as the asset attempts to decisively clear ~$2,400 and march back toward the highs. 6-Month Forecast (🟢 Secular Bullish):   Driven by 10% Daily / 20% Weekly / 70% Monthly.  The monthly timeframe dominates. Because the macro oscillators remain firmly bullish and have successfully digested the peak froth, there is ample fuel in the tank. We project significantly higher prices six months out as the primary secular commodity cycle continues its advance. Forecast Projection Breakdown:  With daily momentum accelerating out of a healthy weekly structural reset, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors trend continuation and a breakout of local resistance. The Bullish Scenario (50% Probability):  The synchronized momentum creates a massive tailwind. Buyers aggressively push the tape, easily absorbing overhead supply and breaking cleanly through the ~$2,100 to ~$2,200 ceilings to resume the structural uptrend. The Base/Neutral Scenario (35% Probability):  The initial tactical bounce loses some velocity as daily oscillators peak. The asset enters a high-level accumulation phase, grinding sideways between ~$1,850 and ~$2,000 to build a structural launchpad before attempting the final breakout. The Bearish Scenario (15% Probability):  The bounce is a sophisticated macro bull trap. Sellers aggressively defend the ~$2,100 zone, forcing a harsh rejection that drives the price violently back down to re-test the ~$1,600 structural floor. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published: Monday, 06 April. The Oil Spike. Link > https://www.unum.capital/post/oil0803 Current Phase:  🟡 High-Level Consolidation Next Best-Probability Phase:  🟡 High-Level Chop / Volatility Digestion Momentum Profile:  The multi-timeframe momentum profile reveals a highly pressurized tape that has stretched too far, too fast, and is now actively seeking equilibrium. Monthly (Macro):  The entire momentum suite is exploding vertically from a deep structural base, thrusting straight into extreme overbought territory. This confirms a massive, overarching regime shift and a dominant secular bull phase. Weekly (Structural):  The momentum suite reached extreme overbought clustering, but the Ultra Short Term oscillator has just executed a violent, vertical crash down toward the neutral midline. This is a definitive warning sign of structural exhaustion and aggressive institutional profit-taking. Daily (Tactical):  The fast daily oscillators have completely cooled off from their overbought extremes, slicing bearishly through the neutral midline and actively dragging the slower Mid Term and Base Term tiers lower. Synthesis:  We are witnessing a classic parabolic digestion. The macro (Monthly) trend is relentlessly bullish, but the structural (Weekly) trend has exhausted its immediate fuel, and the tactical (Daily) momentum has already reset to the downside. This divergence dictates that a high-level consolidation or a deeper corrective pullback is required to balance the order book. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias:  Evaluating the broader macro context, the asset recently engineered a breathtaking vertical breakout, launching from the ~$80.00 accumulation base and surging parabolically to print a peak near ~$111.00. Isolating the immediate daily price action, the ascent has forcefully stalled. The tape is currently printing a high-level distribution/consolidation block just below the recent highs, characterized by topping tails and erratic intraday chop, currently trading near ~$107.47. Given the violent downward hook in weekly momentum and the cooling daily tape, the tactical bias leans heavily toward 🟡 High-Level Consolidation / Mean-Reversion Pullback . Key Support & Resistance Levels:  Immediate overhead supply and local resistance sit tightly at the recent peak near ~$111.00 to ~$112.00. If this level is eventually cleared, the ultimate macro target and historical resistance ceiling rests near ~$120.00. Immediate structural support is established at the psychological and local pivot zone of ~$100.00. Because the recent rally was a vertical "blue-sky" surge, a massive structural air pocket exists below; if the $100.00 floor gives way, the next robust structural base lies much deeper in the ~$90.00 liquidity zone. Next Candle Probability:  The current price action aligns with Scenario 44: 🟡 High-Level Chop / Volatility Digestion . The daily structure shows a total loss of upward velocity as the tape moves sideways-to-lower. The highest probability outcome for the next sequence of daily candles is continued range-bound chop or a grinding drift lower as algorithmic momentum forces the weekly oscillators out of their extreme overbought state. Primary View Invalidation:  To invalidate this corrective/consolidation primary view, buyers must completely ignore the extreme overbought conditions and the crashing weekly momentum. They would need to orchestrate a massive, high-volume breakout that definitively clears and holds above the ~$112.00 local ceiling. This would signal a rare, runaway parabolic squeeze continuation toward $120.00. The Next 10 Days:  Over the next two trading weeks, the asset faces a critical test of its high-level flag structure. Given that daily momentum is actively cooling while the weekly tape screams exhaustion, market participants should anticipate erratic, bidirectional price action heavily skewed toward testing local floors. The tape will likely oscillate violently as early longs take profits. If the ~$100.00 local floor cracks, expect a rapid algorithmic flush to definitively test the ~$90.00 structural base. Tactical Risk Assessment: Buying vs. Selling What's the risk of buying now?  The primary risk of initiating a new long position at ~$107.47 is that you are chasing a vertically overextended weekly/monthly chart precisely as structural momentum is crashing. Because the ascent left a massive air pocket beneath it, buying here exposes you to the risk of a severe mean-reversion drawdown toward the ~$100.00 or ~$90.00 support voids before a true macro higher-low is formed. What Can Change?  If institutional buyers aggressively defend the ~$100.00 level, absorb all overhead supply, and force a high-volume daily close above ~$112.00, it validates the parabolic strength and significantly lowers the risk of an immediate deep pullback. What's the risk of selling now?  The primary risk of selling (whether taking profits or initiating a speculative short position) is stepping directly in front of a confirmed macro regime shift. While the weekly chart is exhausted and a pullback is logically favored, the underlying monthly trend is aggressively bullish. In commodity markets, overbought squeezes can remain irrational longer than anticipated. What Can Change?  If the daily price structure definitively slices through the ~$100.00 local support with expanding volume, it mechanically confirms the localized exhaustion thesis, signaling that gravity has taken control and a deeper structural pullback to $90.00 is underway. Timeframe Confluence & Forecasting (WCL Model) Applying the Weighted Confluence Logic to the current momentum structure: 1-Month Forecast (🔴 Bearish / Pullback):   Driven by 60% Daily / 30% Weekly / 10% Monthly.  The daily oscillators are drifting into weakness, heavily supported by the violent downward hook on the weekly chart. We project lower prices over the next 30 days as the asset executes a necessary mean-reversion structural correction toward the ~$100.00 or ~$90.00 levels to digest the vertical rally. 3-Month Forecast (🟡 Base/Neutral):   Driven by 20% Daily / 50% Weekly / 30% Monthly.  The intense overbought conditions on the macro timeframes will require significant time to reset. We project highly volatile, structural chop and base-building roughly between ~$90.00 and ~$110.00 as the tape exhausts the sellers and builds a durable institutional foundation. 6-Month Forecast (🟢 Bullish):   Driven by 10% Daily / 20% Weekly / 70% Monthly.  The monthly timeframe dominates. The massive surge from the $80.00 base confirmed a secular regime shift. Once the 3-month corrective digestion completes, we project higher prices six months out as the primary secular bull trend resumes its assault on the ~$120.00 macro resistance. Forecast Projection Breakdown:  With daily and weekly momentum cooling to digest extreme macro overbought conditions, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors sideways consolidation or a healthy mean-reverting pullback. The Base/Neutral Scenario (45% Probability):  The tape manages to hold the high-level flag. The asset enters a choppy distribution/accumulation phase strictly between ~$100.00 and ~$111.00 to allow the slower moving averages to catch up to the price. The Bearish/Pullback Scenario (35% Probability):  Parabolic gravity takes hold. Sellers break the $100.00 floor, initiating a sharp, healthy structural retracement targeting the ~$90.00 liquidity pool to build a true macro higher-low. The Bullish Scenario (20% Probability):  The macro momentum is simply unstoppable. Buyers absorb all profit-taking without needing a deep pullback, squeezing the price relentlessly through the $112.00 ceiling to continue the vertical advance toward $120.00. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za As we stated yesterday morning, after a +8000 point rebound, sell on rally. The index reached the lower boundary of the sell re-entry range and retraced by over 4000 points. In total over 12,000 points (including the rebound and the retracement. Well done to clients who took the opportunity to trader. Previous Post (Wednesday, 01 April): JSE Top 40 Index: 8000 Points Higher + Updated Risks & Probabilities Trading +8000 vs our buy re-entry range. BEST-PROBABILITY ACTION: Sell on Rally / Relief Bounce Exhaustion Momentum Profile:  The multi-timeframe momentum profile reveals a complex structural battle. On the macro (Monthly) chart, the fast momentum tiers are crashing violently from extreme overbought conditions, signaling a massive, longer-term regime shift. However, on the medium-term (Weekly) chart, the Ultra Short Term and Short Term oscillators plunged to oversold extremes and are now hooking sharply upward. This is currently decoupling from the daily timeframe, where fast momentum has already rocketed straight back into overbought territory. This signature—macro distribution colliding with a violent short-term squeeze—indicates a classic, highly volatile relief rally within a newly damaged macro structure. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias:  Evaluating the broader macro context across the timeframes, the index previously engineered a massive structural uptrend, peaking near the ~121,000 macro resistance zone. This distribution phase resolved violently to the downside, with a brutal monthly waterfall decline that sliced straight through multiple floors to print a capitulation wick near ~98,000. Isolating the immediate daily price action, the tape has executed a massive V-shaped recovery off that ~98,000 liquidity sweep, surging back to trade currently near ~106,291. Given the macro damage on the monthly chart and the overextended fast momentum on the daily chart, the tactical bias leans toward 🔴 Sell on Rally / Relief Bounce Exhaustion , anticipating that overhead supply will soon cap this vertical bounce. Key Support & Resistance Levels:  Immediate overhead supply and macro resistance are firmly established between ~108,000 and ~110,000. This zone marks the heavy breakdown shelf and consolidation block established before the final flush; it is thick with trapped longs and institutional limit-sell orders. Immediate structural support sits lower at the ~103,000 local pivot. Should this interim floor give way, the major historical demand zone and ultimate structural floor remains the capitulation wick lows at ~98,000 to ~100,000. Next Candle Probability:  The current price action aligns with Scenario 44: 🔴 High-Level Chop / Bounce Exhaustion . The daily structure shows massive upward thrust, but it is now driving directly into a major resistance wall while operating on mathematically stretched daily momentum. The highest probability outcome for the next sequence of daily candles is a loss of upward velocity, the printing of topping tails (upper wicks), and highly erratic bidirectional chop as institutional sellers begin to fade the retail relief rally. Primary View Invalidation:  To invalidate this cautious, exhaustion-focused primary view, buyers must completely ignore the macro gravity and overextended daily oscillators. They would need to orchestrate a massive, high-volume breakout that definitively clears and holds above the ~112,000 upper resistance ceiling. This would trap aggressive short-sellers, confirm the ~98,000 sweep was the ultimate cyclical bottom, and shift the bias back to primary trend continuation. Technical Risks & Opportunities: 3 Technical Risks: Macro Gravity (The Bull Trap):  The monthly momentum is still actively rolling over. If this daily bounce fails at the ~108,000 supply wall, it cements a massive macro lower-high, signaling the start of a protracted, multi-month bear phase. Structural Air Pocket:  Because the daily recovery was nearly vertical, there is very little structural support built directly beneath the current price. A sudden rejection could trigger an "air pocket" drop straight back to ~103,000. Volatility Whip-saw:  The extreme variance between the daily (overbought) and weekly (hooking up from oversold) momentum creates a chaotic tape. Stop-losses on both sides are highly vulnerable to being hunted in wide intraday swings. 3 Technical Opportunities: Higher Low Base Building:  If the tape is rejected at ~108,000 but manages to pull back and consolidate cleanly above ~103,000, it would digest the overbought momentum and form a highly reliable higher-low launchpad for a sustainable recovery. Short-Squeeze Continuation:  Parabolic bounces can remain irrational. If the weekly momentum hook provides enough tailwind, forced short-covering could temporarily blast the tape through 110,000 before gravity sets in, offering aggressive intraday long scalps. Defined Risk Short Setup:  The convergence of extreme daily overbought momentum with a clear structural supply wall at ~108,000 creates a pristine, defined-risk entry for macro short-sellers looking to fade the bounce. The Next 10 Days:  Over the next two trading weeks, the index faces its ultimate stabilization test as it fully engages the ~108,000 to ~110,000 historical supply zone. Given the stretched state of the daily momentum oscillators, market participants should anticipate an end to the easy, vertical gains. We are likely to see intense intraday battles as early bottom-fishers take profits and institutional bears reload their short positioning. If the tape fails to quickly punch through this ceiling, expect a rapid, localized cascade that actively tests the vulnerability of the tape beneath 104,000 to establish a true, durable higher-low. Tactical Risk Assessment: Buying vs. Selling What's the risk of buying now?  The primary risk of initiating a new long position at ~106,291 is that you are buying directly into the late stages of an overextended daily relief rally, mere inches below a massive structural supply wall (~108,000). You risk providing the exact exit liquidity that trapped longs and institutional sellers are waiting for. What Can Change?  If institutional buyers aggressively absorb all overhead supply and force a definitive, high-volume weekly close above the ~110,000 ceiling, it validates the V-shaped recovery and significantly lowers the risk of a secondary breakdown. What's the risk of selling now?  The primary risk of selling (whether taking profits or initiating a speculative short position) is stepping in front of the weekly momentum hook. While the daily chart is stretched, the weekly oscillators have just triggered an aggressive upward reversal from extreme lows. If this weekly tailwind forces a sustained short-squeeze, the tape could violently spike through 110,000, liquidating early bears. What Can Change?  If the daily fast momentum oscillators suddenly plateau, cross bearishly, and the price prints a high-volume rejection candle at ~108,000, it would mechanically confirm exhaustion, validating the short thesis and signaling the relief rally is over. Forecast Projection Breakdown:  With daily momentum dangerously extended into a major breakdown shelf, the forward-looking probability distribution favors sideways exhaustion or a sharp localized pullback to build structure. The Bearish Scenario (45% Probability):  The relief rally hits the ~108,000 wall and dies. Sellers aggressively fade the bounce, forcing a sharp rejection that breaks immediate daily structure and targets a rapid retracement back to the ~103,000 pivot. The Base/Neutral Scenario (35% Probability):  The tape loses its vertical velocity but refuses to crash. The asset enters a highly volatile, choppy distribution phase roughly between ~103,000 and ~108,000 to work off the extreme overbought daily conditions. The Bullish Scenario (20% Probability):  The weekly momentum hook is simply unstoppable. Buyers absorb all overhead supply without needing a pullback, grinding the price relentlessly through the 110,000 ceiling to trap the macro bears. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The data below are extracts from the full report. Data as of yesterday's close (01 April 2026). READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Checklist as of yesterday's close. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Checklist as of yesterday's close. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The index rebounded in line with the price action model (1 to 10 day time frame) but is yet to reach our desired provisional medium term accumulation buy re-entry range. BEST-PROBABILITY ACTION: Sell on Rally / Lower High Rejection Momentum Profile:  The multi-timeframe momentum profile reveals a highly dangerous structural collision. Monthly (Macro):  The Quarterly Pulse and Fast Monthly tiers have plunged to absolute extreme oversold levels, while the Secular Cycle is actively breaking downward. This signals a massive, overarching regime shift and deep macro distribution. Weekly (Structural):  The Tactical Momentum and Fast Weekly oscillators are attempting a weak upward hook from deeply oversold extremes, but the Structural Trend is still plunging aggressively. Daily (Tactical):  The Ultra Short Term and Short Term oscillators, after a brief relief bounce, are already rolling over and crossing bearishly through the Mid Term right at the neutral midline. Synthesis:  The macro gravity is heavily bearish. The weekly chart attempted a dead-cat bounce, but the daily momentum is already failing before reaching overbought territory. This indicates that sellers are eagerly waiting to fade any minor relief rallies. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias:  Evaluating the broader macro context, the asset recently peaked near the ~7,000 structural resistance zone, initiating a brutal, cascading markdown phase. This distribution resolved violently to the downside, fracturing major psychological floors and printing a capitulation wick near ~6,380. Isolating the immediate 1-Day and 5-Day candle structures, the tape executed a weak relief bounce back to the ~6,535 level, but is currently printing topping tails and failing to sustain upward velocity. When evaluating how to fish for trading opportunities in this volatile environment, the convergence of failing daily momentum within a damaged macro trend leans the tactical bias heavily toward 🔴 Sell on Rally / Lower High Rejection . Key Support & Resistance Levels:  Immediate overhead supply is heavily concentrated at the ~6,600 to ~6,650 zone. This area marks the recent breakdown shelf and will feature aggressive institutional limit-sell orders. Immediate structural support sits at the recent panic wick low near ~6,380. Should this interim floor fail to hold the next wave of selling, the major historical macro demand zone rests much deeper, near the ~6,000 psychological baseline. Next Candle Probability:  The current price action aligns with Scenario 44: 🔴 High-Level Chop / Bounce Exhaustion . The daily structure shows a loss of momentum right at the mean. The highest probability outcome for the next sequence of daily candles is a definitive rollover, printing bearish expansion candles as institutional order flow forces the tape back down to test the vulnerability of the recent ~6,380 lows. Primary View Invalidation:  To invalidate this bearish continuation primary view, buyers must completely override the rolling daily oscillators and orchestrate a massive, high-volume breakout that definitively clears and holds above the ~6,650 upper resistance ceiling. This would trap the aggressive short-sellers, confirm a localized bottom, and shift the immediate bias toward a broader structural consolidation. Technical Risks & Opportunities: 3 Technical Risks: Macro Gravity (The Bull Trap):  The monthly momentum is in absolute freefall. Buying into this minor daily/weekly relief rally risks getting caught in a massive macro lower-high, exposing longs to severe systemic unwinds. Structural Air Pocket:  Because the recent bounce from 6,380 lacked robust base-building, there is very little structural support directly beneath the current price. A sudden rejection could trigger an "air pocket" drop straight back to the lows. Volatility Whip-saw:  The conflict between the weekly (hooking up) and daily (rolling down) momentum creates a chaotic tape, making tight stop-losses highly vulnerable to erratic intraday liquidity sweeps. 3 Technical Opportunities: Defined Risk Short Setup:  The convergence of failing daily momentum just below the ~6,600 supply wall creates a pristine, low-risk/high-reward entry for macro short-sellers looking to fade the bounce. Breakdown Acceleration:  If the tape easily slices back through ~6,380, it will trigger fresh algorithmic margin calls, providing rapid downside velocity for trend-following short positions targeting ~6,000. Deep Pullback Accumulation:  For long-term macro players, waiting patiently for the monthly momentum to fully wash out and for the price to reach the ~6,000 deep demand zone will eventually offer a generational accumulation point. The Next 10 Days:  Over the next two trading weeks, the index faces a critical rejection test as it struggles to clear ~6,600. Given that the daily Ultra Short Term and Short Term oscillators are already breaking downward, market participants should anticipate an immediate resurgence of selling pressure. If the tape prints a definitive, high-volume rejection candle here, expect a rapid algorithmic markdown phase that actively hunts the ~6,380 liquidity pool. Tactical Risk Assessment: Buying vs. Selling What's the risk of buying now?  The primary risk of initiating a new long position at ~6,535 is that you are buying into a weak, failing relief rally while the macro (Monthly) trend is actively crashing. You risk providing exit liquidity for institutional players who are using this bounce to offload trapped inventory. What Can Change?  If institutional buyers aggressively absorb all overhead supply and force a definitive, high-volume daily close above the ~6,650 ceiling, it validates the recovery attempt and significantly lowers the risk of an immediate secondary breakdown. What's the risk of selling now?  The primary risk of selling is stepping in front of the minor Weekly momentum hook. While the daily chart looks ready to roll over, the weekly Tactical Momentum is attempting to push higher from extreme oversold conditions. If this weekly tailwind forces a localized short-squeeze, the tape could temporarily spike through 6,650, stopping out early bears. What Can Change?  If the daily price structure slices through local intraday support with expanding volume and the daily fast oscillators plunge into weakness, it mechanically confirms the short thesis, signaling that the relief rally is officially dead and the path of least resistance is down. Forecast Projection Breakdown:  With daily momentum failing within a damaged macro structure, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors downside continuation. The Bearish Scenario (55% Probability):  The relief rally completely exhausts itself near current levels. Sellers aggressively fade the tape, forcing a sharp rejection that targets a rapid retracement back to crack the ~6,380 pivot. The Base/Neutral Scenario (30% Probability):  The tape enters a highly volatile, choppy distribution phase roughly between ~6,400 and ~6,650 as the market attempts to find an equilibrium between the conflicting daily and weekly momentum flows. The Bullish Scenario (15% Probability):  The weekly momentum hook overpowers the macro gravity. Buyers aggressively squeeze the tape through the 6,650 ceiling, initiating a complex, wider structural recovery. Previous Post (Sunday, 28 March): S&P 500 Index: Waterfall Breakdown + Next Best Actionable Areas Published on Sunday, 29 March for Monday, 30 March. S&P 500 Index (SPX) Momentum Profile:  The weekly momentum profile reveals a catastrophic and uniform collapse. The Ultra Short Term and Short Term tiers have plunged to absolute zero-bound extremes, indicating maximum historical localized selling pressure and algorithmic capitulation. The Mid Term has dragged deep into weak territory, and the Base Term has now fractured below its neutral band into weakness, confirming that the aggressive sell-off has fundamentally damaged the longer-term macro trend. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias:  Evaluating the 20-week macro context, the SPX was previously in a sustained, orderly structural uptrend, peaking near ~6,650. Within the 10-week window, the index printed a clear double-top distribution structure, failing to sustain new highs as institutional exhaustion set in. Looking at the 3-to-5-week timeframe, this distribution phase resolved violently to the downside. Isolating the immediate 1-week timeframe, the index printed a devastating red waterfall candle, effortlessly slicing through the 6,500 critical psychological level to close near absolute weekly lows at 6,368.85. Given the total collapse in momentum and the definitive breakdown of the macro floor, the tactical bias is strictly 🔴 Avoid / Waterfall Capitulation . Key Support & Resistance Levels:  Overhead supply and macro resistance are firmly established at ~6,500 to ~6,600, representing the massive broken support zone that now acts as a formidable ceiling containing trapped long positions. Immediate structural support is currently in a state of price discovery, but psychological and historical liquidity points to the ~6,000 to ~6,100 zone as the next viable floor. Major historical demand lies deeper at ~5,700, marking the major breakout consolidation base from late 2024. Next Candle Probability:  The current price action perfectly aligns with Scenario 99: 🔴 Waterfall Capitulation . The 1-week candle is a massive, wide-range downward expansion that completely ignored any intraday buying attempts. Because it closed at the absolute lows with virtually no lower wick, it indicates sellers maintained aggressive, panic-driven control straight into the Friday bell. The highest structural probability for the next weekly candle is continued downside follow-through, targeting lower liquidity pools as margin calls and systematic unwinds persist. Primary View Invalidation:  To invalidate this waterfall capitulation primary view, buyers must orchestrate a miraculous, high-volume V-shaped short squeeze that immediately arrests the slide and sustains a weekly close back above the ~6,500 breakdown level. This would trap the aggressive short positioning, suggest the massive flush was an anomalous liquidity sweep, and stabilize the broader macro structure. Technical Risks & Opportunities: 3 Technical Risks: Cascading Systemic Unwinds:  A continuation below current levels risks triggering further mechanical selling from volatility-targeting funds and negative gamma options positioning, violently accelerating the markdown phase. Momentum Entrenchment:  If the Ultra Short Term and Short Term oscillators remain pinned at the zero-bound extreme without triggering a relief bounce, it signals a structural regime change where buyers have entirely abandoned the tape. Lower High Confirmation:  Any anemic, low-volume relief rally that fails to forcefully clear the 6,500 supply wall will simply provide smart money with premium liquidity to short into, cementing a macro lower-high. 3 Technical Opportunities: Oversold Rubber-Band Snapback:  The extreme downside fracturing and zero-bound momentum tiers create a highly pressurized, stretched environment; stabilization here could trigger a violent, highly tradable V-shaped relief rally. Generational Base Reset:  Should the index flush down to the 5,700 – 6,000 historical demand zone, it would wash out months of excess macro froth and provide a pristine, low-risk institutional accumulation zone for the next cycle. Volatility Contraction Setup:  If the tape can temporarily arrest the slide and begin printing tight inside bars, it sets up a defined-risk structural baseline for a mean-reversion trade once order flow balances. The Next 10 Days:  Over the next two trading weeks, the index faces a critical stabilization test as it navigates the immediate fallout of this waterfall capitulation. Given the zero-bound extremes in the faster momentum tiers, market participants should anticipate highly erratic, bidirectional volatility, where sudden, sharp short-covering relief rallies toward the ~6,500 broken support are entirely plausible but remain structurally suspect. If buyers fail to orchestrate a definitive V-shaped recovery to reclaim that 6,500 ceiling, these "dead-cat" bounces will simply provide fresh liquidity for institutional sellers, likely resulting in a secondary wave of algorithmic distribution that presses the tape down to definitively test the ~6,000 to ~6,100 historical demand zone before a durable macro floor can be established. Forecast Projection Breakdown:  With fast momentum obliterated and a clear downward expansion pattern cemented on the chart, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors a test of lower liquidity pools, though the extreme stretch warrants vigilance for sudden snap-backs. The Bearish Scenario (60% Probability):  The capitulation continues unabated. Sellers easily slice through minor psychological barriers, initiating a rapid markdown targeting the ~6,000 to ~6,100 liquidity pool as panic persists. The Base/Neutral Scenario (25% Probability):  The intense selling pressure temporarily exhausts itself. The index enters a choppy, highly volatile lower-range distribution phase between ~6,300 and ~6,500 as the market attempts to find an equilibrium amid shifting flows. The Bullish Scenario (15% Probability):  The extreme oversold momentum triggers a violent short-covering squeeze. Buyers aggressively absorb the supply and force a rapid upward spike back toward the ~6,500 broken floor, invalidating the immediate free-fall. Previous Post (28 October 2025): S&P 500 Index (Monthly Chart Time Frame): Broadly Overbought Conditions Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital