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Trading African Rainbow Minerals

  • Writer: Lester Davids
    Lester Davids
  • 24 hours ago
  • 3 min read

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za


Most recently, we highlighted the overextension risk in ARI, suggesting a sell/reduce at R267. The updated analysis is shown further below the chart.



African Rainbow Minerals: Update Analysis


Status: Structural Expansion / Tactical Pullback

Current Price: 21,985 ZAC (-4.04% Daily)


African Rainbow Minerals (ARI) appears to be positioned within a strong structural bull cycle, likely benefiting from a cyclical turn in diversified mining commodities. While the long-term secular trend remains in a clear expansion phase, the stock is currently undergoing a tactical consolidation following a parabolic run toward multi-year highs. There is a high probability that price action is seeking a support floor to digest recent gains before attempting to reclaim its primary upward trajectory.


2. Monthly Structural Chart (Long Term / Secular)

The monthly configuration reflects a major structural breakout from a multi-year accumulation base, with price action clearing significant historical supply zones.



3. Weekly Cyclical Chart (Slower / Macro)

The weekly chart shows a stock in a robust upward trend, though currently reacting to overextended momentum tiers as it enters a cyclical cooling phase.



4. Daily Tactical Chart (Standard)

The daily chart highlights a sharp tactical reversal as the stock pulls back from the 25,000 ZAC psychological barrier.



5. Price Action Model (PAM) Momentum Profile

Monthly Chart (Long Term / Secular):

  • Quarterly Pulse: Strong; confirming the validity of the structural expansion.

  • Fast Monthly: Strong; reflecting sustained high-velocity buying on a long-term basis.

  • Secular Cycle: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought.

  • Core Baseline: Neutral; indicating the stock is still early-to-mid cycle in its secular move.

Weekly Chart (Slower / Macro):

  • Tactical Momentum: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought; cooling from recent peaks.

  • Fast Weekly: Strong; confirming the cyclically constructive nature of the move.

  • Structural Trend: Strong; indicating the primary macro trend remains intact.

  • Primary Trend: Neutral; price action is currently stabilizing relative to the long-term trend.

Daily Chart (Standard):

  • Ultra Short Term: High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold; reflecting aggressive tactical selling.

  • Short Term: Weak; price is currently mean-reverting toward short-term targets.

  • Mid Term: Neutral; the intermediate trend is entering a stabilization phase.

  • Base Term: Neutral; the broader daily trend remains rangebound following recent volatility.


6. Key Technical Levels

  • Overhead Resistance: 25,000 ZAC. This represents the recent multi-year high and major supply zone.

  • Current Price: 21,985 ZAC. Price is testing immediate psychological support zones.

  • Immediate Support: 20,000 – 21,000 ZAC. A high-probability zone for a tactical "reset" attempt.

  • Structural Floor: 17,000 ZAC. The primary breakout level that must hold to maintain the secular bull thesis.


7. Execution Strategy

The Price Action Model suggests that ARI remains a structurally dominant stock, but the current tactical configuration favors patience. Probabilities favor a continued consolidation toward the 21,000 ZAC support zone as Ultra Short Term momentum resets. Investors should look for a "hook" in short-term velocity from these levels as a potential signal for trend resumption within the primary bull cycle.


Previous Post (23 January): Take Profit: Long Term Target Reached at R240

African Rainbow Minerals



(Previous Post 21 January 2026)

African Rainbow Minerals is close R100 higher from our February 2025 note at 13390c and is also approaching our long term target of R240, with a high of +22800c today. Get ready to take profit. Alternatively, scale out (i.e. sell a portion of the position as approaches the R240 level.



Previous Post (14 October 2025): Long Term Target +240


Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital



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