JSE Banks: Momentum Profile + Reward-To-Risk

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za

Banks (FSR, ABG, NED, SBK, CPI)

The Banking sector is currently the undisputed momentum engine of the JSE, displaying a parabolic advance that has pushed the index to fresh highs. The price action is vertical, indicating aggressive institutional accumulation and a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) mentality among buyers. However, the momentum is currently printing extreme readings that are statistically unsustainable in the short term. While the structural trend is incredibly powerful, such an overextended profile typically precedes a cooling-off period or a consolidation phase to digest these rapid gains.

• Verdict: Extreme Caution ⚠️

• Long R:R: 🔴 1:4 (Poor). Buying here is chasing a vertical move with an RSI ~98. The upside is limited by exhaustion, while the downside snap-back risk is massive.

• Short R:R: 🟢 3:1 (High). A contrarian trade. If you time the top, the mean reversion potential is huge, but you are fighting a runaway train.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital