Trading Harmony Gold (HMY)

Lester Davids
14 hours ago
4 min read

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za

For our clients trading Harmony Gold in New York.

Published: 10 February 2026

Time: 18h09

Regime: Bullish Consolidation / Rangebound

Primary Outlook: Buy on pullback

Executive Summary

Harmony Gold is currently pausing within a broader upward trend. The stock is characterized by a "Neutral" and "Rangebound" condition across the short term, indicating a period of digestion or consolidation. While the immediate directional bias is absent, the long-term structure remains bullish. The technical model suggests using this consolidation to accumulate positions, specifically targeting key moving averages if immediate support softens.

Detailed Trend Analysis

1. Short Term (approx. 1 to 10 days)

7-Day Trend: Neutral
14-Day Trend: Rangebound
Outlook: Lack Directional Bias.
Analysis: The stock is currently directionless in the immediate term. The advice is to "Look For Break of Range To Trigger Directional Move," suggesting that the price is coiled and waiting for a catalyst to pick a direction.

2. Medium Term (approx. 2 to 4 weeks)

Status: Bullish Regime (Paused)
Analysis: The underlying regime remains bullish, but the stock "Currently Lacks Directional Bias." Similar to the short-term view, it requires a "Break of Range To Trigger New Trend." This indicates that the bulls are still present but resting.

3. Long Term (approx. 5 to 8 weeks)

Status: Consolidating In An Upward Trend
Analysis: This is the key actionable timeframe. The uptrend is intact, but the stock is consolidating. The specific instruction is: "If 8-EMA Is Breached Then Use The 21-EMA As An Accumulation Range." This confirms that dips are viewed as buying opportunities within the structural uptrend.

Strategic Action Plan

Primary Strategy: Accumulate on Dips.
The Setup: The stock is consolidating. A breach of the fast 8-EMA is not a sell signal, but a discount trigger.
The Zone: Target the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (21-EMA).
The Trade: Use any weakness that drops price into the 21-EMA zone to build or add to long positions ("Accumulation Range").
Alternative Trigger: Conversely, a sustained break above the current consolidation range would signal the resumption of the "Bullish Regime".

Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable)

READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned.

"Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup.

THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:
The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.
Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)
Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position
Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)
Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.
Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)
Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)
Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal
Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend
Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)
Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)
Whether a share lacks directional bias.
The data set is available in real-time (on request)
The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.