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Where is the Money Flowing?

  • Writer: Lester Davids
    Lester Davids
  • Feb 6
  • 3 min read

Research Notes February 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rfeb2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za


Published: Pre-Market, Friday, 06 February 2026.


The data is based on the DAILY TIME FRAME and is subject to change based on the subsequent news flow and price action.


Note: This analysis may differ from the analysis which is based on the Weekly and Monthly time frames.


  1. Banks are King, For Now: The Banking sector is the only sector flashing Strong across all three timeframes (Long, Medium, and Short), confirming it as the primary engine of the JSE right now 🏛️.

  2. The Paper & Pulp Pivot: Paper & Pulp represents the most aggressive rotational play, swinging from Oversold on the Long Term directly to Strong on the Short Term, signaling high-conviction bottom fishing 🎣.

  3. Platinum Breakdown: Platinum Miners screen as a clear distribution setup for trend followers, having degraded from Strong (LT) to Weak (ST), confirming that capital appears to be fleeing the sector 📉.

  4. Gold Momentum Stall: Gold Miners have lost their short-term edge, dropping to Neutral (ST) despite massive Long Term momentum, suggesting the "fear trade" is taking a breather ⏸️.

  5. Coal's Resurrection: Coal Miners have completed a full trend reversal, moving from Weak (LT) to Strong (Med/ST), effectively joining Banks as a momentum leader 💎.

  6. Staples Capitulation: Consumer Staples are accelerating to the downside, showing High Bearish Momentum on the Short Term, indicating this sector carries the highest momentum risk currently 🔪.

  7. Tech Value Trap: Technology is flagging "Oversold" on both Long and Medium terms, yet remains Weak on the Short Term; the structure suggests a value trap with no catalyst for a reversal yet 🚫.

  8. Chemicals Recovery: Chemicals are quietly building a base, stepping up from Weak (LT) to Neutral (Med) and finally Strong (ST), a textbook accumulation pattern 🧪.

  9. Insurers Lagging Banks: Insurers are finally waking up, moving to Strong on the Short Term, likely playing catch-up to their banking counterparts in the financial complex 🐢➡️🐇.

  10. The "Safety" Trade is Gone: Traditional defensive sectors like Consumer Staples are crashing, which forces defensive capital flows into "offensive" defenses like Banks and Coal 🛡️.

  11. Discretionary Distress: Consumer Discretionary is showing High Bearish Momentum (LT) and remains Weak everywhere else; the SA consumer story appears fundamentally broken on the charts 🛍️⚠️.

  12. Miners Overheating: General Miners (excluding precious metals) are Strong but Overbought on the Medium Term, suggesting a pullback or consolidation is highly probable 🌡️.

  13. Hospitals Basing: Hospitals have stopped falling, stabilizing at Neutral on the Short Term, potentially forming a floor for a long-term entry 🏥.

  14. Luxury Stagnation: Luxury Goods are stuck in a downtrend (Weak LT/Med) but have stabilized to Neutral (ST), indicating selling pressure has exhausted itself for now 👜.

  15. Telecoms Chop: Telecoms are the most indecisive sector (Neutral/Strong/Neutral), offering little alpha and likely trading in a tight, choppy range 📶.

  16. Rotation into "Dirty" Industry: There is a clear thematic shift of capital out of "glamour" metals (Gold/Platinum) and into heavy industry (Paper/Chemicals/Coal) 🏭.

  17. Divergence in Resources: We are seeing a major split in the resource block; the broad "long resources" thesis appears to be fracturing. The data implies a rotational preference for Coal and Chemicals, while Platinum and Gold screen as potential funding sources for these trades rather than holds 🔀.

  18. The Short-Term Alpha: For immediate trading (next 1-2 weeks), the only Strong Short Term sectors are Banks, Insurers, Coal, Paper, and Chemicals. Outside of these, the data suggests limited potential for short-term outperformance 💰.

  19. Trend Fatigue: The Overbought signal on Miners (Med Term) combined with the Oversold signal on Tech (Med Term) suggests a mean-reversion trade could trigger soon if catalysts appear 🔄.

  20. Market Breadth Concern: The rally is narrowing. With Consumer Disc, Staples, and Tech all weak, the market is being held up solely by Financials and select Industrials, creating risk if Banks falter ⚖️.



Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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