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Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za At the time of analysis, prices were delayed by 15-minutes. Analyst's Price Action Model (subject to change): Interpretation of Price Action Model: For Sibanye Stillwater (SSW), the integrated technical picture highlights a period of significant near-term weakness embedded within a broader structural uptrend. In both the immediate short term and the medium term, the stock is exhibiting "very weak" price action, reflected by a "weak" 7-day trend and a "bearish" 14-day trend. Consequently, the tactical advice across both of these shorter horizons is to remain defensive and "wait until it stabilizes on the lower time frame" before considering new long exposure. Despite this severe downdraft, the long-term outlook retains a "steady upward trend but weaker on lower time frame". This convergence of short-term weakness and long-term trend presents a specific setup for buyers: the strategy is to "look for support at or just below 50-EMA followed by a reclaim to trigger rebound buy," indicating that a washout below this key moving average coupled with a quick recovery would serve as the catalyst for a mean-reversion trade. The analysis below has been generated using Google's Artificial Intelligence Tool, (Gemini) based on inputs from the analyst's data set: Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 08 march for Monday 09 March Previous Post (31 August 2025): Are You Positioned For The Move In Energy? Previous Post (Friday, 22 August): 🎥Watch: iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 08 March for Monday 09 March Analyst View: The past 4 months has seen the index trade in a narrow range with resistance capped around the closely-watched 7000 level. On 28 October, our analysis, which included our data, showed the S&P 500 index in exhibiting broadly overbought conditions, which was subsequently followed by the aforementioned sideways range. Friday saw the lowest close since December which was below the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) as well as below the medium term 21-week EMA. While the price remains above it's rising 200-day moving average, the index remains vulnerable to a 'flush' below this level (the 200-day SMA). This view is driven by the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East which may place further upside pressure on energy market (including oil) and which has a knock-on effect for the global economy (including inflation). Like many others, I will admit that I DON'T KNOW HOW FINANCIAL MARKET PRICES WILL REACT ON MONDAY MORNING. It is likely that volatility will continue rise which may see risk assets (including equities) being sold. With regard to the S&P 500 Index, it may be worth preparing for a larger-than-normal decline, which would EVENTUALLY present a buying opportunity. The attached chart highlights key support levels, with the annotations reflecting the key percentage (%) drawdown levels. For example, an 8.6% decline would see the index trade at the June 2025 breakout level, however, a pullback BELOW this level is not out of the question. Automated View (Generated With Gemini Using Analyst's Data): Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Running Our 45 Stock and ETF Screens Through Gemini (Google’s Artificial Intelligence Tool), These Are The Results: We have officially moved from a standard defensive posture into what can only be described as a Geopolitical Barbell Strategy: Militarized Hard Assets & Digital Fortresses. While the massive baseline of Aggressive Capital Preservation (Energy, MLPs, Utilities, Downside Hedged ETFs) remains completely intact, the growth side of the barbell has become highly weaponized. Professional capital is buying the physical constraints of a fractured world (Oil, Gas, Pipelines, Aerospace/Defense) while aggressively buying the software required to operate and defend it (Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, Israel Tech). The persistent, parallel presence of PHDG (Downside Hedged) and ACWV (Global Min Volatility) running right alongside Cloud Computing (CLOU), Cyber (HACK), and Oil (XOP) proves investors are fully deployed but deeply paranoid. They are paying a premium to hedge the very rally they are buying. Size Factors 📏 Small Cap 🐜 : Strictly Thematic. Broad small-cap beta is dead. Capital is only stepping down the market-cap ladder for hyper-specific geopolitical themes: Israel Tech (IZRL), niche Cybersecurity (HACK, IHAK), or Small Cap Energy (PSCE). Mid Cap ⚖: The Digital/Cyber Sweet Spot. Mid-caps are catching heavy bids solely through the lens of Tech Services (WIX, GWRE, TWLO) and Cloud/Cyber ETFs. Investors want software companies large enough to be profitable, but small enough to be acquired or scale rapidly. Large Cap 🐳: Hedged and Equal-Weighted. Traditional cap-weighted S&P 500 exposure is being actively managed out. The screens are dominated by Equal Weight Energy (RSPG), Equal Weight Utilities (RSPU), and S&P 500 Downside Hedged (PHDG). Style Factors 🎨 Value 🏷️: Physical Dominance. Deep value in physical reality—E&P (XOP, IEO) and Utilities (XLU, IDU)—remains the anchor. The market is capturing double-digit cash flow yields and ignoring speculative multiples. Quality 💎: The Universal Filter. Whether buying Enterprise Software (IGV) or Oil Pipelines, the fundamental prerequisite is trailing free cash flow. Unprofitable tech remains entirely excluded. Growth 🚀: The Digital Resurgence. Growth is officially back, but highly specialized. The violent reappearance of IGV (Software), CLOU (Cloud Computing), and Cybersecurity (IHAK) proves institutions are rotating into high-margin digital monopolies with captive audiences. Momentum 🌊: The Ultimate Barbell. Trend strength is entirely bifurcated. The absolute strongest momentum lies simultaneously in Oil Refiners/Pipelines (CRAK, MLPX) and Cloud/Cyber Defense (IGV, SHLD). Risk & Yield Factors ⚠️ Low Volatility & Hedging 🛡️: Paranoid Bullishness. The simultaneous highs in ACWV (Global Min Vol), USMV, and PHDG (Downside Hedged) next to breakout Tech/Energy ETFs is the defining tell. Institutions are actively buying portfolio insurance. High Yield / Dividend 💰: Maximized. MLPs (MLPA, MLPX), Energy Income (EINC), and broad Super Dividends (DIV) continue to suck in capital acting as inflation-adjusted bond proxies. Carry 🎒: Tax-Advantaged. The MLP space remains the ultimate carry trade, capturing physical pipeline tolls with favorable tax treatments. Thematic & Sector Factors 🏗️ Defense (Kinetic & Cyber) 🏰: Surging. This is the loudest new signal. The screens are suddenly packed with Aerospace & Defense (PPA, XAR, ITA, SHLD) running alongside Cybersecurity (HACK, IHAK, FITE). Geopolitics is driving capital into both physical and digital weapons systems. Cyclical 🔄: Energy Monopoly. Traditional cyclicals are completely boxed out by Energy. If it doesn't pull oil/gas out of the ground or move it through a pipe, cyclical money isn't interested. Innovation 💡: Regional Specificity. Innovation is being bought via Israel Tech (IZRL, EIS), signaling a bet on highly specialized, defense-adjacent intellectual property. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published Sunday 08 March for Monday 09 March Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published Sunday 08 March for Monday 09 March Previous Post (26 November): Take Profits on Tiger Brands (+25%): Rebounding Off The R288-R295 Buy Re-Entry Range; Printing +R367 Previous Post Tiger Brands: Rebounding Off The R288-R295 Buy Re-Entry Range, Now Trading +R336 (+15%) Previous Post (19 June): Tiger Brands: Unwinding From Overbought; 21-Week EMA In Focus Recently we highlighted TBS being overbought on 3x time frames. The share then traded slightly higher before retreating. Provisionally, the 21-week EMA between R288 and R295 is a provisional next best probability buy level of interest: Previous Post (26 May) : Tiger Brands: Overbought On 3x Time Frames M = Monthly W = Weekly D = Daily Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday, 08 March for Monday, 09 March. (1) Potentially resolving a multi-week consolidation pattern to the upside, though a final test of lower trendline support remains a statistical possibility before a true breakout occurs. (2) The monthly Core Baseline and Secular Cycle firmly anchor a powerful macro uptrend, with the Quarterly Pulse maintaining high bullish momentum. (3) The weekly Structural Trend and Primary Trend remain exceptionally strong, while Fast Weekly and Tactical Momentum constructively digest recent gains. (4) Daily Ultra Short Term and Short Term momentum are curling aggressively higher from a neutral baseline, signaling a renewed tactical impulse. (5) Bullish setup: a classic volatility contraction is meeting a daily momentum reset, creating a high-probability continuation setup. (6) Fair value structural support currently sits near the lower boundary of the immediate consolidation around 4,800 USD. (7) A primary tactical extension target upon a confirmed breakout sits near the 5,500 to 5,600 USD zone. (8) Despite the constructive tactical setup, continued overheating at the macro level warns that larger intermediate corrections will eventually be required. (9) A deeper, critical macro trend floor is well-established near the 4,400 USD level. (10) Strategy: Maintain a cautiously bullish bias, accumulating near the lower consolidation boundary and utilizing trailing stops below the pattern to manage risk. The recent price action for Spot Gold, the 10-day candle structure illustrates a clear consolidation phase, actively forming a symmetrical volatility contraction (bull pennant) after a steep structural advance, defining a tightening range of higher lows and lower highs. Zooming in, the 5-day candle structure highlights a successful defense of the lower pattern boundary, translating into a steady sequence of bullish thrusts aiming back toward overhead resistance. The most recent 1-day candle structure confirms this ongoing strength, closing with firm bullish intent near its session highs; this indicates sustained intraday buying pressure and suggests a high probability of immediate upward continuation to test the breakout level. Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published: Sunday, 08 March for Monday, 09 March. Summary: Technology and Paper & Pulp are the standout turnarounds on the board, rapidly accelerating from High Bearish and Oversold Long-Term trends, respectively, to hit a Strong state in the Short Term. Meanwhile, Telecoms, Chemicals, and Coal Miners have consistently maintained intense, high bullish and overbought momentum in the shorter timeframes, sustaining serious strength built from a Strong Long-Term foundation. On the building front, Insurers show a clear upward shift, breaking out from a sleepy Neutral Long-Term stance to establish a Strong Medium and Short-Term footing. Conversely, the broader mining block—Diversified, Gold, and Platinum Miners—is visibly losing its early longer-term strength, cooling entirely to Neutral in the Short Term, just as Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples remain trapped in persistent, multi-horizon weakness. Finally, Hospitals and Luxury Goods continue to languish under weak to neutral pressure, while Banks smoothly fade from a Neutral longer-term regime into a Weak short-term state, mirroring the broader JSE Top 40 Index's own fade from Strong to Weak. The Leaders: High Bullish & Overbought Momentum Telecoms:  The clear standout. It is the only sector holding "High Bullish Momentum" across both the Medium and Short-Term horizons, backed by a "Strong" Long-Term trend. Gold Miners:  Sustaining massive Long and Medium-Term momentum. While it has cooled to "Neutral" in the Short Term, its Long-Term trajectory remains the most aggressive on the board. Coal Miners:  Currently in a "danger zone" of exhaustion. While the Long-Term trend is "Strong," it is explicitly flagged as Overbought  in both the Medium and Short-Term. The Improving & Recovering Technology:  A significant "V-bottom" play. It is emerging from "High Bearish Momentum" in the Long-Term to establish a Strong  Short-Term footing. Insurers:  Showing steady, textbook improvement. It moved from a "Neutral" Long-Term base to Strong  in both the Medium and Short-Term. Paper & Pulp:  A deep-value recovery. It is rotating from an Oversold  Long-Term position into a Strong  Short-Term trend. Chemicals:  Strong Long-Term performance that has recently become overextended. It is currently Overbought  in the Medium-Term but maintains high momentum in the Short-Term. The Fading & Neutral Diversified Miners:  Showing signs of "top-off." The Long-Term is "Strong," and the Medium-Term is "High Bullish," but it has flattened to Neutral  in the Short-Term. Platinum Miners:  Similar to Diversified Miners, the early "Strong" momentum is losing steam, cooling to Neutral  in the Short-Term. Luxury Goods:  Largely directionless. Despite a "Weak" Long-Term start, it has settled into a Neutral  grind for both Medium and Short-Term periods. The Laggards: Persistent Weakness Banks:  Slowly deteriorating. They have slipped from a "Neutral" stance in the Long/Medium-Term into a Weak  Short-Term regime. Consumer Staples:  Consistently poor performance, marked as Weak  in the Long and Short-Term, with a "High Bearish" dip in the Medium-Term. Consumer Discretionary:  Under heavy pressure. It is "High Bearish" in the Long-Term and remains Weak  across all other timeframes. Hospitals:  Stuck in a "Weak" regime for both the Long and Short-Term, failing to capitalize on its brief "Neutral" Medium-Term stint. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 08 March for Monday 09 March. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday 08 March for Monday 09 March. TGA HAS REACHED AND EXCEEDED OUR PREVIOUS EXTENSION TARGET OF R140. THE SLIDES BELOW ARE AN UPDATE ON TEH CURRENT REWARD-TO-RISK, WITH BOTH THE ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE CHARTS BEING SHOWN. Previous Post (Tuesday 03 March): Final Target Reached at R140: Thungela Resources Previous Post (Tuesday 03 March at 14h00): Now +63% Higher vs Initial Buy Re-Entry Range Previous Post (Monday, 02 March): Thungela Resources: 1st Target Reached at R118. Now +50% Higher vs Buy Re-Entry Range As noted on Sunday, 11 January in the note "Thungela Resources' Medium & Long Term Target": "Next potential upside target? R118 then R130. Over the long term R140 is not out of the question. Short term = a pullback is possible! Buy into the rising moving averages." Link to original note > https://www.unum.capital/post/tga1101 The original note is also shown further below on this page. Previous Post (Sunday, 15 February): Trading Thungela Resources: Sustainable Recovery Thungela Resources (TGA) is currently in a **"Goldilocks" technical phase**. The short-term momentum is robust (High Bullish), confirming buyer conviction, while the medium and long-term trends are "Strong" but **not yet Overbought**. This suggests the rally has structural support and ample runway remaining. Unlike peers that are extended, TGA offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for new entries on shallow dips. **Maintain Long exposure and look to accumulate on any consolidation.** Previous Post (Sunday, 11 January): Thungela Resources' Medium & Long Term Target The share rallied by 33% from our buy re-entry range, stalling just above and around the sell re-entry. Zooming out, there's a bigger move at play. Having cleared the short term and medium term moving averages, the price also sits above the 200-day SMA. Next potential upside target? R118 then R130. Over the long term R140 is not out of the question. Short term = a pullback is possible! Buy into the rising moving averages. Short Term Traders: Take Profit on Thungela Resources. A +9% Rebound vs Buy Re-Entry Strong rebound from lower boundary of buy re-entry range (7935c to 8652c). Previous Post (02 December, Intraday)🎥Video: Thungela Resources: Intraday Cash Flow Previous Post (02 December, Pre-Market): Thungela Resources: Trading Levels + Momentum Analysis Highlights: Vertical Momentum Spike:  The Daily chart is witnessing an aggressive liquidity inflow. The Ultra Short Term (2-Day) momentum indicator has surged deep into the "Overbought"  tier. This indicates extreme buyer urgency and typically signifies a "panic buy" or short-squeeze scenario where price velocity is unsustainable in the immediate term. Structural Trend Repair:  Crucially, the Base Term (14-Day) trend has crossed firmly into the "Strong"  tier. This is a significant technical development, confirming that this rally is not merely a "dead cat bounce" but a structural shift in daily market sentiment, supported by widening participation. Full Spectrum Alignment:  All four momentum timeframes—from the fast-twitch 2-Day to the structural 14-Day—are sloping sharply upwards  in unison. This synchronized thrust creates a powerful tailwind, suggesting that any short-term dips are likely to be aggressively bought by latecomers. Resistance Convergence:  The price is fast approaching a well-defined overhead supply zone between 8,500c and 8,800c . With the short-term momentum indicators effectively "pinned" at their ceilings, this resistance level is likely to trigger a pause or profit-taking event. Best Action Timeline: 3 to 5 days (1 week):   Fade/Trim.  With the fastest momentum indicator pinned in the "Overbought" zone, the statistical probability of a pullback is high. Do not chase. Look to trim tactical longs into strength. 6 to 10 days (2 weeks):   Wait for the Higher Low.  Allow the momentum to cool from "Overbought" to "Neutral." Watch for support to form around the breakout level of 8,000c . 11 to 15 days (3 weeks):   Re-Entry.  If the 14-Day Base Trend remains in the "Strong" tier, re-enter long positions for a breakout attempt above 8,800c . 16 to 20 days (4 weeks):   Trend Extension.  Target the 9,500c - 10,000c  zone as the intermediate trend matures. Bullish Scenario:   Momentum Overdrive:  The market ignores the overbought reading (a sign of immense strength). The stock blasts through the 8,800c  resistance on high volume, triggering a further squeeze toward 9,500c  without a meaningful pullback. Base Scenario:   Bull Flag Consolidation:  The stock stalls at resistance ( 8,500c - 8,600c ) and drifts sideways. Price holds above 8,000c , allowing the Ultra Short Term momentum to reset from its extremes down to a sustainable level. Bearish Scenario:   Rejection & Fade:   The overbought signal marks a local top. The price rejects hard at 8,500c  and falls back below 7,800c , invalidating the breakout and trapping recent buyers. Core Thesis Thungela has shifted from a stabilization phase to an impulsive recovery. The synchronization of all daily trend indicators points to a genuine change in character. However, the current velocity is too hot to chase. The thesis is bullish on the structure but defensive on immediate timing. The optimal strategy is to wait for the "froth" to come off the short-term indicators before positioning for the next leg higher. Comprehensive Summary The momentum profile is highly constructive but extended. The fact that the Base Term trend has joined the rally in the "Strong" tier gives this move credibility. However, when the Ultra Short Term indicator is pinned at the top of the range, the market is historically prone to a sharp, reflexive volatility event to clear out leverage. Patience is the key edge here. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis (Daily Focus) Ultra Short Term Indication:   OVERBOUGHT  | Slope:  Sharply Upwards Short Term Indication:   HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM  | Slope:  Sharply Upwards Mid Term Indication:   HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM  | Slope:  Sharply Upwards Base Term Indication:   STRONG  | Slope:  Upwards Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus) Bullish Breakout:  A daily close above 8,800c  clears the last major hurdle before the 10,000c level. Bearish Failure:  A close back below 7,800c  would damage the new uptrend structure. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance:   8,500c - 8,800c  (Previous Consolidation Highs). Pivot Support:   8,000c  (Psychological / Breakout Level). Critical Structural Support:   7,500c  (Trend Defense). Trend Floor:   7,200c  (Recent Lows). Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Sharp bearish reversal, starting to move in line with the price action model (see previous note further below). The updated price action model and updated chart with action levels are shown below. Previous Post (11 February) Capitec Bank: Approaching Structural Resistance Chart Context Ticker:  CPI (Capitec Bank) Timeframe:  Daily (1D) Current Price:  R4,562 Trend:  Strong long-term uptrend (Bullish) Channel Analysis (The "Channel Check") We have identified two distinct channel structures here, which tells a story of accelerating momentum followed by a critical test of resistance. 1. The Primary Ascending Channel (Long-Term) The wider channel (encompassing price action from late 2023 to present) defines the primary trend. Support (Lower Rail):  The stock has found reliable buying interest along the lower trendline (seen in late 2023, mid-2024, and late 2025). This confirms the long-term bullish structural integrity. Resistance (Upper Rail):  The price is currently interacting with the upper boundary of this major channel. Historically, touches of this upper rail result in consolidation or a pullback, as the stock becomes technically "expensive" relative to its trend. 2. The Secondary Channel (Accelerated Trend) Inside the major channel, there is a steeper, narrower channel that has formed recently (starting roughly mid-2025). Momentum:  The formation of this steeper channel indicates increasing bullish momentum. Buyers are stepping in at higher levels more aggressively, not waiting for the price to drop back to the major channel support. Current State:  The price is currently pinned at the top  of this minor channel as well. Technical Verdict: Testing Critical Resistance The chart shows a classic "Confluence of Resistance" : The price is hitting the ceiling of both  the long-term channel and the short-term accelerated channel simultaneously (around the 455,000 - 460,000 zone). Bearish/Correction Scenario (High Probability): Since the price is at the very top of the channel, the Risk/Reward ratio for new long positions here is poor. The last candle is red (down -0.82%), suggesting sellers are already defending this upper trendline. A rejection here would likely see the price retreat to the midline  of the channel or the lower support of the minor channel (approx. 430,000 level). Bullish/Breakout Scenario (Momentum Play): If CPI closes decisively above  the top white line (e.g., a strong green candle closing above 460,000), it would signal a "breakout" into a new, steeper parabolic phase. However, these are harder to sustain. Summary The "Channel Check" indicates the stock is Overextended . While the trend is undeniably up, the price is currently at a ceiling. Technical discipline usually suggests this is a zone to take profits  or wait for a pullback , rather than enter new long positions, unless a confirmed breakout occurs. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital