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Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Primary Category : Secular Bullish Regime / Discovery Phase  🔵 Expected Path : Consolidation above $4,500 Support  ⚪ Strategic Overlay : Buy Structural Dips / Trend Continuation  🟡 Highlights Fractal Momentum Surge : A powerful momentum profile is sustained as gold enters 2026. Weekly indicators show a robust trend, with the price holding firmly above the 8-week and 21-week EMAs . While short-term oscillators on the Daily chart have cooled slightly from December extremes, they remain in a bullish "sweet spot," avoiding deep overbought territory for now. Cyclical Turnaround : Gold has transitioned into a secular price-discovery phase after shattering the $3,000 threshold in early 2025. The metal is currently up approximately 68% year-over-year , driven by aggressive central bank purchases and a "National Unity" global safe-haven narrative. This indicates that the primary bullish cycle has significant structural runway remaining. Daily Overheat Warning : In the Short Term (approx. 1 to 10 days) , the metal is digesting its late-December rally to record highs of $4,550.79 . While buyers remain in control, the market is oscillating near the $4,500 psychological magnet , where a minor pullback to the 8-day EMA may be required to reset momentum for the next impulsive leg. The Weekly "Engine Room" : The Weekly chart confirms a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows. All trend timeframes are sloping upward, with the 14-week Base Term  maintaining a "Very Bullish" rating. This validates that the structural trend has successfully shifted into a high-conviction discovery phase. Breakout at Resistance : Price action is currently challenging the major multi-year pivot zone at $4,500 - $4,550 . A definitive close above this zone technically unlocks Fibonacci extension targets toward $5,000  for the 2026 outlook. Best Action Timeline: 3 to 5 days (1 week): Wait / Trim.  Immediate upside momentum is pausing at psychological resistance. Expect choppy price action or a tactical pullback to $4,450 – $4,480  as the market awaits fresh inflation data. 6 to 10 days (2 weeks): Accumulate.  Once the daily "climax" state cools in the Medium Term (approx. 2 to 4 weeks) , look for high-conviction entries near the 75-day EMA / 21-week EMA  structural floors (currently near $4,385 - $4,420 ). 11 to 15 days (3 weeks): Ride the Trend.  If the $4,450  immediate floor holds, aligned weekly momentum should drive the next impulsive leg toward $4,600 . 16 to 20 days (4 weeks): Monitor Monthly Close.  A monthly close above $4,510  confirms the secular discovery is active for the Long Term (approx. 5 to 8 weeks) , targeting the $4,800  analyst handle. Scenarios: 🟢 Bullish Scenario: Blue Sky Extension : Price ignores technical overextension and blows through $4,550  resistance toward $4,700+ , driven by worsening geopolitical tensions and sustained US dollar weakness. ⚪ Base Scenario: Bull Flag Consolidation : The metal digests its massive annual gains, consolidating between $4,440 and $4,510  to allow moving averages to catch up while central bank demand remains a structural anchor. 🔴 Bearish Scenario: Momentum Failure : A sharp rejection at recent highs triggers a deleveraging event back to the 50-week EMA / 200-day SMA  base (near $3,666 ), signaling a macro reset before further upside. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance : $4,510 – $4,550  (Current All-Time High / Discovery Zone). Target 1 : $4,800 – $5,000  (2026 Structural Target). Pivot Support : $4,450  (Immediate Structural Floor). Critical Structural Support : 75-day EMA / 21-week EMA  (Medium-term "Buy Zone"). Trend Floor : 50-week EMA / 200-day SMA Base  (Long-term Defense). Core Thesis Spot Gold is in a robust "secular discovery" phase. While short-term indicators warn of a consolidation need, the long-term structure remains exceptionally bullish, supported by structural central bank buying and debt-to-GDP concerns. Tactical patience is required to avoid chasing vertical extensions; wait for the structural dip to the $4,450  pivot, then trust the weekly trend. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za 🎭 Market Regime - Factor Bifurcation:  The correlation between "Hard Assets" (Resources) and "Domestic Cyclicals" (Retail) has broken. Diversification is currently effective. 🦴 Trend Factor - Long-Term Persistence:  65% of the universe is >200d SMA. The Structural Bull factor remains the dominant regime despite short-term noise. 🔋 Momentum - Short-Term Decay:  Short-term momentum (<8d EMA) is fading across 45% of the index. The "Fast Money" factor is pausing; expect mean reversion. 🥇 Leading Factor - Commodity Beta:  High-beta Resource stocks are exhibiting the strongest relative strength (RS) scores against the ALSI Top 40. 🐌 Lagging Factor - Mega-Cap Growth:  Global Tech exposure (proxy for Nasdaq) is trading below long-term baselines, acting as a massive drag on index performance. 🛒 Domestic Cyclicals - Structural Breakdown:  The Consumer Discretionary factor is printing new 3-month lows. Avoid exposure to "SA Inc" consumer leverage. ⚖️ Index Weighting - Top-Heavy Distortion:  The largest capitalization weights (Tech/Miners) are moving in opposite directions, neutralizing headline index returns. 📊 Quality Factor - Divergence in Financials:  "High ROE" banking assets are outperforming "Deep Value" banking assets. Quality is commanding a premium over valuation. 🎢 Volatility - Regime Expansion:  Volatility (ATR) is expanding in the Resource factor. This requires wider stop-loss bands for trend-following strategies. 🛡️ Low Beta - Defensive Strength:  Insurance and Education factors (Low Beta) are hitting new relative highs, acting as a proxy for "Safety." ☠️ Tech Factor - Momentum Inversion:  Moving averages in the Tech sector are in a "Death Cross" alignment. Institutional flows are actively rotating out of Growth. 🔪 Distressed Value - Falling Knives:  Stocks trading in the bottom decile of P/E are continuing to make new lows. "Deep Value" is currently a value trap. ♻️ Rotation Trade - PGM Recovery:  The Platinum Group Metals basket is reclaiming medium-term trendlines, signaling a rotation from "Laggard" to "Recovering." 🪤 Yield Factor - Dividend Traps:  High-yield stocks in the Tobacco/Consumer space are failing trend tests. The yield is insufficient to offset capital erosion. 💎 Mid-Cap Factor - Defensive Growth:  Select Mid-Cap Industrial stocks are showing lower correlation to the broad index, offering better risk-adjusted returns. 📉 Entry Signal - Trend Pullbacks:  High Momentum stocks retracing to the 21-day average offer the best Sharpe Ratio entries (buying strength on weakness). 🧱 Resistance - Overhead Supply:  The Apparel Retail factor faces heavy volume resistance. Rallies in this sector are technically being sold into. 🍩 Sector Beta - Property vs. Equities:  Property stocks with high retail exposure are decoupling from global bond yields (usually a correlation). Idiosyncratic risk is high. 🚥 Breadth Thrust - Participation Rate:  With only ~52% of stocks >8d EMA, the market lacks the "Thrust" required to confirm a sustainable broad-based rally. 🏳️ Capitulation - Lack of Panic:  New 3-Month Lows are contained (<8%). We have not yet seen the "Capitulation Spike" that typically marks a cyclic bottom. 🦄 Relative Strength - Intra-Sector Dispersion:  Even within weak sectors (Retail), "Quality" factor stocks are holding support while "Leverage" factor stocks break down. 🔗 Correlation - Resource/Bank Decoupling:  The historical positive correlation between Mining and Financials has inverted. This allows for long/short pair trading opportunities. 🚧 Technical Floor - 200-day Sensitivity:  Key "Blue Chip" Consumer stocks losing the 200d SMA suggests institutional mandates are shifting to "Underweight." 🌊 Liquidity Flow - Softs to Hards:  Volume analysis shows a clear rotation out of Soft Commodities (Retail/Food) into Hard Commodities (Metals). 🛑 Risk Mgmt - ATR Positioning:  Volatility-adjusted sizing is crucial. Reduce position size in Resources (High Vol) vs. Financials (Low Vol) to equalize risk. 🚩 Chart Patterns - Bull Flag Construction:  The Gold factor is consolidating near highs (low volume pullback), a classic bullish continuation setup. 📏 Mean Reversion - Overbought Extremes:  The "High Momentum" factor (RSI > 70) is stretched. Statistical probability favors a pause or pullback in leaders. 🕳️ Mean Reversion - Oversold Persistence:  The "Consumer" factor is oversold, but momentum is strongly negative. Oversold conditions are persisting, signaling a crash, not a dip. 🤜 Pair Strategy - Long Beta / Short Alpha:  Long "Commodity Momentum" vs. Short "Consumer Cyclicals" is the highest probability Factor Pair. 👩‍⚖️ Active vs Passive - Alpha Opportunity:  Index-level returns are flat due to cancellation effects. Alpha is generated solely through Factor Tilting (Sector Selection). 💊 Sub-Sector Split - Pharma vs. Retail:  Healthcare Retail is showing divergent trends based on valuation. Growth-priced pharma is holding better than Value-priced pharma. ☎️ Telco Factor - Defensive Pivot:  Telecommunications is acting as a defensive proxy, breaking out to new highs as investors seek non-cyclical cash flow. 🔨 Testing Levels - Cyclical Breakouts:  The "Used Goods" / Secondary Market economy is testing key resistance, acting as a counter-cyclical growth theme. ⚡ Energy Factor - Trend Reversal:  The Energy / Chemical complex has moved from "Value Trap" to "Trend Following" (Price > 200d SMA). 📰 Materials - Paper & Forestry Lag:  Unlike Metals, the Soft Commodities (Paper) factor is structurally broken, confirming the "Hard Assets Only" preference. 🏢 Geo-Arbitrage - Offshore Property:  Property stocks with Euro-exposure are outperforming domestic-only portfolios. The "Rand Hedge" factor is active. 🌟 Size Factor - Small Cap Momentum:  Specific small-cap names are exhibiting idiosyncratic momentum independent of the ALSI, driven by specific earnings stories. 🥫 Staples Factor - Food vs. Apparel:  Food Producers (Staples) are holding moving averages better than Apparel Retailers (Discretionary). Defensive rotation is evident. 🏗️ Infra Theme - Construction Beta:  The Infrastructure factor is showing broad strength, suggesting the market is pricing in future capex spend. 💼 Holdco Discount - Low Volatility Exposure:  Investment Holding Companies offer a lower-beta way to access the "SA Inc" factor without the single-stock volatility of retailers. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share rallied by 33% from our buy re-entry range, stalling just above and around the sell re-entry. Zooming out, there's a bigger move at play. Having cleared the short term and medium term moving averages, the price also sits above the 200-day SMA. Next potential upside target? R118 then R130. Over the long term R140 is not out of the question. Short term = a pullback is possible! Buy into the rising moving averages. Short Term Traders: Take Profit on Thungela Resources. A +9% Rebound vs Buy Re-Entry Strong rebound from lower boundary of buy re-entry range (7935c to 8652c). Previous Post (02 December, Intraday)🎥Video: Thungela Resources: Intraday Cash Flow Previous Post (02 December, Pre-Market): Thungela Resources: Trading Levels + Momentum Analysis Highlights: Vertical Momentum Spike:  The Daily chart is witnessing an aggressive liquidity inflow. The Ultra Short Term (2-Day) momentum indicator has surged deep into the "Overbought"  tier. This indicates extreme buyer urgency and typically signifies a "panic buy" or short-squeeze scenario where price velocity is unsustainable in the immediate term. Structural Trend Repair:  Crucially, the Base Term (14-Day) trend has crossed firmly into the "Strong"  tier. This is a significant technical development, confirming that this rally is not merely a "dead cat bounce" but a structural shift in daily market sentiment, supported by widening participation. Full Spectrum Alignment:  All four momentum timeframes—from the fast-twitch 2-Day to the structural 14-Day—are sloping sharply upwards  in unison. This synchronized thrust creates a powerful tailwind, suggesting that any short-term dips are likely to be aggressively bought by latecomers. Resistance Convergence:  The price is fast approaching a well-defined overhead supply zone between 8,500c and 8,800c . With the short-term momentum indicators effectively "pinned" at their ceilings, this resistance level is likely to trigger a pause or profit-taking event. Best Action Timeline: 3 to 5 days (1 week):   Fade/Trim.  With the fastest momentum indicator pinned in the "Overbought" zone, the statistical probability of a pullback is high. Do not chase. Look to trim tactical longs into strength. 6 to 10 days (2 weeks):   Wait for the Higher Low.  Allow the momentum to cool from "Overbought" to "Neutral." Watch for support to form around the breakout level of 8,000c . 11 to 15 days (3 weeks):   Re-Entry.  If the 14-Day Base Trend remains in the "Strong" tier, re-enter long positions for a breakout attempt above 8,800c . 16 to 20 days (4 weeks):   Trend Extension.  Target the 9,500c - 10,000c  zone as the intermediate trend matures. Bullish Scenario:   Momentum Overdrive:  The market ignores the overbought reading (a sign of immense strength). The stock blasts through the 8,800c  resistance on high volume, triggering a further squeeze toward 9,500c  without a meaningful pullback. Base Scenario:   Bull Flag Consolidation:  The stock stalls at resistance ( 8,500c - 8,600c ) and drifts sideways. Price holds above 8,000c , allowing the Ultra Short Term momentum to reset from its extremes down to a sustainable level. Bearish Scenario:   Rejection & Fade:   The overbought signal marks a local top. The price rejects hard at 8,500c  and falls back below 7,800c , invalidating the breakout and trapping recent buyers. Core Thesis Thungela has shifted from a stabilization phase to an impulsive recovery. The synchronization of all daily trend indicators points to a genuine change in character. However, the current velocity is too hot to chase. The thesis is bullish on the structure but defensive on immediate timing. The optimal strategy is to wait for the "froth" to come off the short-term indicators before positioning for the next leg higher. Comprehensive Summary The momentum profile is highly constructive but extended. The fact that the Base Term trend has joined the rally in the "Strong" tier gives this move credibility. However, when the Ultra Short Term indicator is pinned at the top of the range, the market is historically prone to a sharp, reflexive volatility event to clear out leverage. Patience is the key edge here. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis (Daily Focus) Ultra Short Term Indication:   OVERBOUGHT  | Slope:  Sharply Upwards Short Term Indication:   HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM  | Slope:  Sharply Upwards Mid Term Indication:   HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM  | Slope:  Sharply Upwards Base Term Indication:   STRONG  | Slope:  Upwards Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus) Bullish Breakout:  A daily close above 8,800c  clears the last major hurdle before the 10,000c level. Bearish Failure:  A close back below 7,800c  would damage the new uptrend structure. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance:   8,500c - 8,800c  (Previous Consolidation Highs). Pivot Support:   8,000c  (Psychological / Breakout Level). Critical Structural Support:   7,500c  (Trend Defense). Trend Floor:   7,200c  (Recent Lows). Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC) Previous Post (08 August): Global Buy Idea: Warrior Met Coal - Igniting Bar Within Consolidation Range Current Price: $59.68 Buy Between: $57.50 and $60.00 Target: $63.00; $73.00 Stop-loss: $48.10 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za US Sector Comparative Analysis: Period:  31 Dec 2025 vs. 09 Jan 2026 Materials:  🟢 Supernova.  The most dramatic shift on the board. Went from a sleeper (Triple Neutral) to "Double High Bullish / Overbought." This is a violent re-rating. Industrials:  🟢 Cyclical Breakout.  Long Term improved from "Weak" to "Neutral," while Medium and Short terms synchronized at "Strong." The industrial economy is leading. Cons. Disc.:  🟢 Consumer Awakening.  Massive reversal. Short Term flipped from "Weak" to "Strong," pulling the Medium Term up with it. Suggests renewed confidence in consumer spending. Energy:  🟢 Tactical Pulse.  Short Term momentum improved from "Neutral" to "Strong," offering a trading opportunity despite the Long Term "Weak" rating. Technology:  🟡 Loss of Primacy.  A significant structural blow. The Long Term rating dropped from "Strong" to "Neutral." Tech is no longer leading the S&P 500. Healthcare:  🟡 Momentum Drain.  Medium Term dropped from "Strong" to "Neutral." The defensive bid has dried up as money chased cyclical beta. Financials:  ⚪ Stasis.  No change. Remains the "steady eddy" of the market with Neutral ratings across the board. Cons. Staples:  ⚪ Deep Value Trap.  No change. Long Term remains "High Bearish Momentum," indicating the falling knife hasn't landed. Communications:  🔴 Momentum Failure.  The biggest loser of the week. Crashed from "Double Strong" (Med/Short) to "Neutral/Weak." The trade was crowded and liquidated. Utilities:  🔴 Breakdown.  Short Term support gave way, dropping the sector to a "Triple Weak" profile. Real Estate:  🔴 Crisis Deepens.  Deteriorated further. Medium Term momentum worsened from "Weak" to "High Bearish Momentum." The structural downtrend is accelerating. Key Technical Shifts Explained 1. The "Real Economy" Rotation: The first week of 2026 was defined by a massive rotation out of "bits and bytes" (Tech, Comms) and into "atoms" (Materials, Industrials). Materials  going from Neutral to "High Bullish" in one week is rare and indicates institutional panic-buying of hard assets. 2. The Death of the "Growth" Trade: Technology  losing its Long Term "Strong" rating is a major signal. It suggests that Tech's multi-year period of outperformance vs. the SPY may be pausing. Combined with Communications  collapsing from "Strong" to "Weak," the growth factor is currently being liquidated. 3. Interest Rate Stress: While Cyclicals rallied, the interest-rate-sensitive bond proxies ( Real Estate, Utilities ) were crushed. Real Estate hitting "High Bearish Momentum" suggests the market is pricing in higher-for-longer yields or specific commercial real estate stress. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za 1. Executive Summary: The Verdict The "Real Economy" Roars, Tech Fades The first trading week of 2026 has delivered a massive cyclical rotation. Capital is aggressively abandoning "Growth" sectors (Technology and Communications) and flooding into "Real Economy" cyclicals. Materials  have staged a spectacular breakout, moving from a laggard status at year-end to the absolute market leader, flashing "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" on both Medium and Short term timeframes. Industrials  and Consumer Discretionary  have joined the party, posting "Double Strong" signals. In a significant shift, Technology —the 2025 leader—has lost its "Strong" Long Term rating, dropping to Neutral. Communications  has suffered a momentum collapse, shifting from a leader to a laggard in just one week. 2. Strategic Asset Allocation View Suggested portfolio weighting relative to the S&P 500 (SPY) based on closing technical posture. 🟢 Overweight (Accumulate / Ride Trend) Materials:  The new undisputed King. "Double High Bullish" signal indicates panic buying. Industrials:  Breakout confirmed. "Double Strong" (Med/Short Term). Consumer Discretionary:  Major reversal. Shifted from "Weak" to "Double Strong." 🟡 Tactical Buy (Speculative) Energy:   New Signal.  Short Term shifted to "Strong." A tactical bounce within a weak structural trend. 🟡 Neutral (Hold) Financials:  Boring but stable. "Triple Neutral." Technology:   Downgrade.  Long Term dropped to "Neutral." No longer a leader; market weight only. Healthcare:  Momentum faded. Dropped to "Triple Neutral." 🔴 Underweight (Avoid) Communications:   Major Downgrade.  Momentum collapsed from "Strong" to "Weak." Real Estate:  Toxic. Deteriorated to "High Bearish Momentum." Utilities:  Breakdown. "Triple Weak." 3. Detailed Sector Analysis by Tier Tier 1: The New Market Leaders (Cyclicals) Sector:  Materials Status:  Parabolic Breakout Technical Profile (09 Jan): Medium Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Short Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Analysis:  An explosion of buying power. From "Neutral" at year-end to maximum bullishness. Chase with caution (overbought), but the trend is undeniable. Tier 2: The Breakout Stars Sectors:  Industrials, Consumer Discretionary Status:  Trend Following Technical Profile (09 Jan): Medium Term:  Strong Short Term:  Strong Analysis:   Industrials  broke out of a long-term "Weak" structure. Discretionary  reversed violently from "Weak" to "Strong," suggesting the consumer is stronger than expected. Tier 3: The Fading Giants Sectors:  Technology, Healthcare Status:  Lost Momentum Technical Profile (09 Jan): Medium/Short Term:  Neutral Analysis:  The leaders of 2025 are tired. Tech lost its Long Term edge, and Healthcare lost its Medium Term "Strong" rating. They are now sources of funds, not destinations. Tier 4: The Danger Zone Sectors:  Real Estate, Utilities Status:  Deep Distress Technical Profile (09 Jan): Real Estate:  High Bearish (MT) / Weak (ST) Utilities:  Weak (LT/MT/ST) Analysis:  Interest rate sensitive sectors are being crushed. Real Estate's Medium Term signal worsened to "High Bearish," signaling a crash. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za JSE Sector Strategic Rankings Report as of  09 January 2026 (End of Week Close) 1. Executive Summary: The Verdict Coal Ignites, Platinum Accelerates, and "Deep Value" Awakens The first full trading week of 2026 has concluded with a dramatic shift in market leadership. Coal Miners  have staged a parabolic breakout, moving from a dormant state at year-end to "High Bullish Momentum" in the short term, making it the most aggressive trend currently available. Platinum Miners  have also intensified their ascent. The "Triple Strong" signal from December 31 has evolved into a more aggressive "High Bullish Momentum" reading on the Medium Term timeframe. This confirms the sector is in a powerful acceleration phase, though risks of overheating are rising. Conversely, the year-end defensive stability in Telecoms  persists, but Financials (Banks)  failed to launch, remaining stuck in neutral. A surprising development is the awakening of "Deep Value" plays: Chemicals  and Hospitals —both structural laggards—have suddenly flashed "Strong" short-term signals, suggesting a rotation into oversold assets is underway. 2. Strategic Asset Allocation View Suggested portfolio weighting relative to the JSE Top 40 Index based on closing technical posture. 🟢 Overweight (Accumulate / Ride Trend) Coal Miners:  The new momentum king. Short Term exploded to "High Bullish / Approaching Overbought." Platinum Miners:  Structural leader accelerating. Medium Term upgraded to "High Bullish." Miners (Diversified):  Reclaimed "Double Strong" status after a brief wobble. 🟡 Tactical Buy (Speculative / Recovery) Chemicals:   New Signal.  Short Term shifted to "Strong" from "Neutral." A potential dead-cat bounce or deep value reversal. Hospitals:   New Signal.  Short Term shifted to "Strong." Defensive money moving in. 🟡 Neutral (Hold) Telecoms:  Remains a solid "Strong" defensive hold. Consumer Staples:  Retains "Strong" Short Term momentum. Banks:  Unchanged. Stuck in "Triple Neutral." 🔴 Underweight (Avoid) Technology:  Deteriorating. Short Term remains "Weak" to "Neutral" with no upside impulse. Consumer Discretionary:  Remains trapped in "High Bearish Momentum" on longer timeframes. Paper & Pulp:  Still "Oversold" but lacks a trigger. 3. Detailed Sector Analysis by Tier Tier 1: The Momentum Leaders (Resources) Sector:  Coal Miners Status:  Parabolic Breakout Technical Profile (09 Jan): Medium Term:  Strong Short Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Analysis:  A massive shift from Dec 31, where this sector was "Neutral." The surge to "High Bullish" indicates aggressive panic buying. Tier 2: The Structural Giants Sector:  Platinum Miners Status:  Trend Acceleration Technical Profile (09 Jan): Medium Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Short Term:  Neutral Analysis:  The trend has intensified since Dec 31. The Medium Term upgrade to "High Bullish" confirms this is the strongest multi-week trend in the market, though the Short Term "Neutral" suggests a brief pause is currently active. Tier 3: The "Deep Value" Rotation Sectors:  Chemicals, Hospitals Status:  Speculative Rebound Technical Profile (09 Jan): Short Term:  Strong Analysis:  Capital is hunting in the bargain bin. Both sectors were "Neutral" or "Weak" at year-end but have suddenly attracted "Strong" short-term inflows. Tier 4: The Steady State Sectors:  Banks, Gold Miners Status:  Consolidation Technical Profile:  Mostly Neutral. Analysis:   Gold Miners  continue to digest their long-term bull run. Banks  remain the definition of average, failing to generate any directional signal. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za JSE Sector Comparative Analysis: Period:  31 Dec 2025 vs. 09 Jan 2026 Coal Miners:  🟢 Major Breakout.  The standout performer of the new year. Short Term momentum rocketed from "Neutral" to "High Bullish / Approaching Overbought," and Medium Term upgraded to "Strong." A dormant sector has woken up violently. Platinum Miners:  🟢 Trend Acceleration.  The Medium Term signal heated up from "Strong" (Dec 31) to "High Bullish Momentum." The structural uptrend is gaining speed, though Short Term momentum has paused (Neutral). Miners (Div):  🟢 Strength Building.  Medium Term improved from "Neutral" to "Strong," aligning with the existing "Strong" Short Term signal. The trend has widened and deepened. Chemicals:  🟢 Deep Value Awakening.  Significant improvement. Medium Term stabilized (Weak → Neutral) and Short Term momentum shifted to "Strong." A potential turnaround for a distressed sector. Hospitals:  🟢 Defensive Rotation.  Short Term momentum improved from "Neutral" to "Strong," indicating fresh capital inflows into this defensive laggard. Consumer Staples:  🟢 Safety Bid.  Short Term upgraded from "Neutral" to "Strong," confirming a rotation into defensive assets during the first week of the year. Telecoms:  🟢 Trend Confirmation.  Medium Term upgraded from "Neutral" to "Strong," validating the breakout. The sector now holds "Strong" ratings on both Medium and Short term horizons. Gold Miners:  🟡 Stabilization.  Short Term momentum improved from "Weak" (Dec 31) to "Neutral," halting the immediate correction. The long-term "High Bullish" structure remains intact. Banks:  ⚪ Stagnation.  No change. Despite mid-week volatility, the sector ended the period exactly where it started: "Neutral" across all three timeframes. Luxury Goods:  ⚪ Drifting.  No change. Remains stuck in a "Weak" long-term trend with "Neutral" shorter-term signals offering no directional bias. Paper & Pulp:  ⚪ Value Trap.  No change. "Oversold" on the Long Term, but continues to print "Weak" and "Neutral" signals on shorter timeframes. Technology:  ⚪ Distress.  No change. Remains stuck with "High Bearish Momentum" in the Medium Term and "Weak" signals elsewhere. Insurers:  🔴 Deterioration.  Short Term momentum failed, dropping from "Neutral" back to "Weak." The sector is struggling to attract bids compared to Banks. Consumer Disc.:  🔴 Crash Continues.  Deteriorated further. Medium Term momentum worsened from "Weak" (Dec 31) to "High Bearish Momentum" (Jan 09), confirming the downtrend is accelerating. JSE Sectors: End of day > 09 January 2026 JSE Sectors: End of day > 31 December 2025 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Date: 10 January 2025 Primary Category : Parabolic Breakout / Discovery Phase  🔵 Expected Path : Mean Reversion toward $70.00 Base  ⚪ Strategic Overlay : Avoid Chasing / Accumulate on Structural Pullbacks  🟡 Highlights: Spot Silver Fractal Momentum Surge : A unified "Momentum Trinity" is firmly established as of early January 2026. Spot prices have surged over 160% in the last year , with momentum indicators on Daily, Weekly, and Monthly charts simultaneously pinned in extreme Overbought  tiers. This synchronization reflects a total market consensus driven by a structural mismatch between tightening physical supply and inelastic industrial demand. Cyclical Turnaround : After shattering a decade-long ceiling in the $30–$50  region during 2025, silver has transitioned into a secular price-discovery phase. Unlike assets making minor highs, silver is now being viewed as a "strategic cornerstone" for 2026 portfolios due to its role as a critical industrial conductor. Daily Overheat Warning : The Daily chart is flagging immediate tactical exhaustion in the Short Term (approx. 1 to 10 days) . Following a peak at $85.87  in late December, the price underwent a violent nominal decline, recently oscillating around $78.00–$80.00 . This volatility signals a "cooling off" period is necessary to reset speculative gauges near the 8-day EMA . The Weekly "Engine Room" : The Weekly chart remains the primary bullish engine, with all trend timeframes sloping aggressively upward. The 14-week Base Term  has successfully reclaimed structural ground, confirming that the Medium Term (approx. 2 to 4 weeks)  trend has shifted from range-bound to a sustained bullish regime. Breakout at Resistance : Price action is currently challenging major psychological resistance at the $80.00  mark. A definitive monthly close above this pivot would technically confirm a massive secular turnaround, unlocking long-term Fibonacci extension targets toward $100.00  throughout 2026. Best Action Timeline: 3 to 5 days (1 week): Wait / Trim.  Immediate upside momentum is meeting stiff technical resistance. Expect choppy price action or a minor pullback to test initial support between $75.00 and $77.00 . 6 to 10 days (2 weeks): Accumulate.  Once the short-term overextension state cools in the Medium Term (approx. 2 to 4 weeks) , look for high-conviction entries near the 75-day EMA / 21-week EMA  structural floors (currently targeted near $70.00–$72.00 ). 11 to 15 days (3 weeks): Ride the Trend.  If the $70.00  "line in the sand" holds as support, aligned weekly momentum should drive the next impulsive leg higher toward $88.00 . 16 to 20 days (4 weeks): Monitor Monthly Close.  A monthly close sustained above $80.00  confirms the secular discovery is active for the Long Term (approx. 5 to 8 weeks) . Scenarios: 🟢 Bullish Scenario: Blue Sky Extension : Price ignores technical overextension and blows through $83.00  resistance toward $90.00+ , driven by a worsening physical supply squeeze in major hubs like Shanghai and Dubai. ⚪ Base Scenario: Bull Flag Consolidation : The metal digests its massive annual gains, consolidating between $72.00 and $80.00  to allow the 8-week  moving average to catch up while industrial demand remains an anchor. 🔴 Bearish Scenario: Momentum Failure : A sharp rejection at recent highs triggers a deleveraging event back to the 50-week EMA / 200-day SMA  base near $65.00 , signaling a tactical "blow-off top" before a deeper macro reset. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance : $81.50 – $83.00  (Current All-Time High / Climax Zone). Targets : $88.00 – $100.00 Pivot Support : $75.00  (Immediate Structural Floor). Critical Structural Support : 75-day EMA / 21-week EMA  (Medium-term "Buy Zone"). Trend Floor : $54.20 – $65.00  (50-week EMA / 200-day SMA Base). Core Thesis Spot Silver is an "early-stage secular discovery" play. While short-term indicators are flashing extreme warnings, the long-term structure is emerging from a 13-year base, offering an asymmetric commodity opportunity. Tactical patience is required to avoid buying the immediate peaks; wait for the structural dip to the $70.00  pivot, then trust the weekly trend. Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Anyone manage to capitalize on the opportunity? Let me know by e-mailing me at lester@unum.co.za Previous Post (02 December at 10h29am): Exxaro Resources: Lower Levels Expected But Probability of Small Rebound (on Higher Time Frame) Lower levels expected in the ultra short term but probability of small rebound (on higher time frame) - based on price action model. Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za There's a new setup developing on AVI. The share exceeded our R102 target in September, closing at 11043c on Thursday (08-January). Momentum is starting to accelerate with potential to clear the R120 resistance level over the medium term and target the R150 level over the long term. The stop is a weekly close below 10400c. Note: How the share trades into resistance will be crucial to the next leg higher. Premium Content WATCHLIST: Preparing for a breakout This is share is on my watchlist for a potential long term breakout. The 3830c level has been multi-year resistance which is looking to be tested again as the price slowing trends higher. For now, the upward momentum is gradual but not aggressive. We would however like to see the price accelerate into the resistance level as confirmation that buyers are stepping up, in a big way. Thank you for your interest in our work. While the vast majority of our notes are free, this premium analysis is provided exclusively for our active  trading clients. We believe our best insights should directly benefit those who entrust us with their trade execution. To access the current note and all future premium content, simply activate a trading relationship with us . If you are ready to align your trading with our research, contact us to open an account or move your existing service to Unum Capital by emailing  tradingdesk@unum.co.za If you are an existing, active  trading client and would like to access the share name, email me DIRECTLY at lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Note: The Price Action Model (Tactical Trading Guide) is a 'Temperature Test' for an instrument, which changes as the price action develops. It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. This is an update to the note published on Tuesday evening (for Wednesday) in which we highlighted the poor reward-to-risk in JSE Platinum Miners. To recap via the text on the chart (as per the Tuesday evening's note), the view for each WAS as follows: Valterra Platinum (down 7.13%): Ultra Short Term Traders, Take Profit! Impala Platinum (down 8.31%) : Ultra Short Term Traders, Take Profit! Northam Platinum (down 7.66%): Ultra Short Term Traders, Take Profit! Sibanye Stillwater (down 6.03%) Previous Post (07 January 2026): JSE Platinum Miners: Price Action Models + Current Probabilities Technical Take: Valterra Platinum (VAL) Regime:  Very Bullish / Overbought Primary Outlook:  At or approaching sell/reduce Executive Summary Valterra is exhibiting extreme bullish momentum, mirroring the setup seen in Anglo American. The stock is in a "Very Strong Move" with buyers firmly in control across all timeframes. However, the consistent warning across every horizon is "Don't Chase."  The stock is extended, and the risk of a "Look Above and Fail" scenario at the highs is significant. Detailed Trend Analysis 1. Short-Term Dynamics (1 - 10 Days) 7-Day Trend:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought 14-Day Trend:  Very Bullish Outlook:  Very Strong Move / Buyers In Control. Analysis:  The stock is running hot. While the trend is powerful, the instruction "May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs" suggests that momentum is peaking. The 8-EMA is highlighted as the first target for a mean reversion correction. 2. Medium-Term Structure (2 - 4 Weeks) Status:  Very Strong Move (Risk of Exhaustion) Analysis:  The narrative remains identical to the short term. The market is one-sided, and late entrants are at high risk of being trapped by a sudden reversal. 3. Long-Term Trajectory (5 - 8 Weeks) Status:  Buyers In Control Analysis:  Even on the longer timeframe, the focus is on the failure risk. The guidance is to view the 8-EMA as a Short/Sell Target  if the highs are rejected. Strategic Action Plan Primary Strategy:   Fade the Failure (Mean Reversion). The Warning:  Do not buy here. The risk/reward for new longs is poor. The Trigger:  Watch for a rejection at current highs. If price stalls and slips, initiate a Tactical Short . Target:  The 8-day EMA  is the magnet for a pullback. Technical Take: Impala Platinum (IMP) Regime:  Bullish Momentum Slowing Primary Outlook:  At or approaching sell/reduce Executive Summary Impala Platinum shares the "High Bullish Momentum" of its peers but is showing clearer signs of immediate exhaustion. The model explicitly notes that "Momentum [is] Slowing With Sellers Becoming Active" in the medium term. This divergence between high price and slowing momentum is a classic bearish warning signal. Detailed Trend Analysis 1. Short-Term Dynamics (1 - 10 Days) 7-Day Trend:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought 14-Day Trend:  Very Bullish Outlook:  Very Strong Move / Buyers In Control. Analysis:  Like VAL, the short-term trend is up, but the "Don't Chase" warning applies. The 8-EMA is the key level to watch for a breakdown. 2. Medium-Term Structure (2 - 4 Weeks) Status:  Momentum Slowing Analysis:  This is a crucial differentiator. Unlike VAL's "Very Strong" medium-term rating, IMP shows "Strong Upside Move But Momentum Slowing." Sellers are starting to distribute into the rally. 3. Long-Term Trajectory (5 - 8 Weeks) Status:  Unattractive Risk/Reward Analysis:  The advice is blunt: "Do Not Enter Long Here."  The risk/reward profile has skewed firmly against buyers. Strategic Action Plan Primary Strategy:   Defensive / Short Weakness. Observation:  The slowing momentum in the medium term suggests IMP may be the first of the basket to roll over. Action:  Avoid longs. Look for short entries on any sign of weakness, anticipating a deeper correction than just the 8-EMA due to the active selling pressure. Technical Take: Sibanye Stillwater (SSW) Regime:  Bullish / Pullback Watch Primary Outlook:  Buy on pullback Executive Summary Sibanye Stillwater offers a slightly different setup. While the long-term view is "Very Strong," the short-term analysis identifies "Weakness On Lower Time Frame." This makes SSW a candidate for a "Buy on Pullback" strategy rather than a pure "Sell on Rally" or "Fade" setup. The model explicitly advises looking for a dip to the 8 or 21-EMA to reload longs. Detailed Trend Analysis 1. Short-Term Dynamics (1 - 10 Days) 7-Day Trend:  Strong (Not "High Bullish/Overbought") 14-Day Trend:  Very Bullish Outlook:  Buyers In Control But Weakness Visible. Analysis:  SSW is slightly less extended than VAL or IMP. The 7-day trend is "Strong" rather than "Overbought." The strategy is to "Look For Pullback To 8 or 21-EMA"  as a buying opportunity. 2. Medium-Term Structure (2 - 4 Weeks) Status:  Aggressive Buying (Wait for Pullback) Analysis:  The advice reinforces the short-term view: "Wait For Pullback To Enter Next." However, it also offers a tactical hedge: "If The Highs Fail To Hold Then Short Back To The 8 or 21-EMA." 3. Long-Term Trajectory (5 - 8 Weeks) Status:  Very Strong Move Analysis:  The long-term structure remains robust. Unlike IMP, there is no mention of "Sellers Becoming Active," suggesting the underlying trend is healthier. Strategic Action Plan Primary Strategy:   Buy the Dip. The Zone:  Watch the 8-EMA  and 21-EMA . The Trade:  Allow the current minor weakness to play out. If price stabilizes at these averages, it is a high-probability entry for the next leg up. Alternative:  Tactical shorts are viable only if the highs are clearly rejected, targeting the same moving averages. Technical Take: Northam Platinum (NPH) Regime:  High Bullish Momentum / Exhaustion Primary Outlook:  At or approaching sell/reduce Executive Summary Northam Platinum is in a "High Bullish Momentum" phase but is flashing red warnings regarding entry. The long-term advice is "Do Not Enter Long Here," and the strategy is split between playing a minor bounce off the 8-EMA or waiting for "Overextension To Short Sell." This suggests a late-stage rally environment. Detailed Trend Analysis 1. Short-Term Dynamics (1 - 10 Days) 7-Day Trend:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought 14-Day Trend:  Very Bullish Outlook:  Very Strong Move / Buyers In Control. Analysis:  Similar to VAL, the move is vertical. The risk is a failure to hold highs, targeting a snap-back to the 8-EMA. 2. Medium-Term Structure (2 - 4 Weeks) Status:  Momentum Slowing Analysis:  Like IMP, NPH shows "Momentum Slowing With Sellers Becoming Active." This confirms that the sector-wide move is encountering distribution. 3. Long-Term Trajectory (5 - 8 Weeks) Status:  Aggressive Buying (Do Not Enter) Analysis:  The "Aggressive Buying" description is paired with a warning: "Wait For Overextension To Short Sell."  The model anticipates a final blow-off top or failure that will provide a lucrative shorting opportunity. Strategic Action Plan Primary Strategy:   Short into Overextension. The Setup:  Wait for the price to stretch significantly above equilibrium (overextension). The Trigger:  A reversal candle or failure at highs. The Target:  Initially the 8-EMA, but potentially lower given the slowing medium-term momentum. Note:  Buying is only recommended for a quick scalp ("Next Minor Bounce") off the 8-EMA, not for a position trade. Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital